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Jul 2, 2012 at 1:16 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Jul 2, 2012 at 12:03 PM Roger Longstaff

"The probability that UK precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is also around 20% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%)."

=

"Your guess is as good as ours"

Jul 2, 2012 at 1:06 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

"The probability that UK precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is also around 20% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%)."

The Met Office is turning UK science into a laughing stock. These models are useless!

Jul 2, 2012 at 12:03 PM | Unregistered CommenterRoger Longstaff

From the Met Office 5 year 2010 -2015 strategy document:
This document outlines the top-level science strategy for the Met Office, which responds to the increasing demand for seamless prediction systems across all timescales, from hours to decades, and for the atmosphere, oceans and land surface. It recognises the unique position of the Met Office in having world-class weather forecasting and climate prediction in one place. Exploiting the benefits of those synergies between the science and modelling of weather, oceans and climate, lies at the heart of this strategy.
The strategy takes the new agenda of seamless science and prediction and focuses the Met Office research agenda around four major science challenges: (i) forecasting hazardous weather from hours to decades; (ii) water cycle and quantitative precipitation forecasting on all scales; (iii) monthly to decadal prediction in a changing climate; and (iv) sensitivity of the Earth system to human activities.
It is advocated that an increasing emphasis on higher resolution modelling, a focus on research into processes and phenomena in the ocean-atmosphere-land-cryosphere system, and an enhanced use of Earth observation are the necessary scientific foundations for tackling these challenges. A new research structure is therefore proposed, aimed at delivering efficiencies and accelerating progress, and setting in place mechanisms for greater integration and innovation in the science base.

I don't know what anyone else thinks, but the five year plan doesn't look to be going well to me. If it was a private company there would be questions being asked of the Chairman and CEO now.

Jul 2, 2012 at 11:18 AM | Unregistered Commentergeronimo

Jonathan Jones, Jul 2, 2012 at 8:18 AM

Having spoken at all the Devon meetings for the Bishop's proposals and having given evidence at the public inquiry which Ricky Knight has been attending, I can assure you that his statement will not have been misquoted. The Inspector has not been impressed by his climate change nonsense.

Jul 2, 2012 at 10:48 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhillip Bratby

Here was the Apr-May-June Met office forecast:

SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period.

The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000
climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf

And here, with the benefit of how badly wrong they were for the previous quarter, is the Met office's forecast for Jul-Aug-Sep:

SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:
For UK-averaged rainfall, the predicted probabilities slightly favour above-normal rainfall during both July and the July-August-September period, although the spread of possible outcomes is large. Consequently, confidence in this prediction is not high, and there is still a significant probability of below-normal rainfall.

Recent wet weather, which has helped to improve groundwater resources in much of the south of the country, is likely to continue into the first part of July. Indeed the forecast for July includes a significant probability of the monthly accumulation being above normal.

The probability that UK precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is also around 20% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/6/3/A3-plots-precip-JAS.pdf

That last paragraph is a stunner. Knowing what we do now, and with knowledge of all the huge increase in CO2 that we know there has been, and with all of the huge computing power at our disposal and all of the research we have undertaken, we are still unable to take any view that precipitation is going to be any different at all to what we have experienced over our 30-year base period.

Go figure.

Jul 2, 2012 at 10:18 AM | Registered Commentermatthu

Now we have Matt Ridley also homing in on the biasedness of the Met Office's longer range predictions

The Met Office’s track record of short-range (five-day) forecasting is, in my experience, very good and getting better, but its longer-range predictions have often been not just badly wrong, but consistently biased on the warm, dry side.

Can it be true that we have not only been subject to agenda driven research but also agenda driven forecasting?

As Matt Ridley points out:

Now look at the curriculum vitae of the chairman of the Met Office, Robert Napier. He is also chairman of the Green Fiscal Commission and the World Conservation Monitoring Centre, and has been a director of the Carbon Disclosure Project, the Alliance of Religions and Conservation and the Climate Group. He is so high up in the church of global warming, he is a carbon cardinal. I am sure he is a man of great integrity, but given this list you have to wonder if one of the organisations he chairs does not occasionally — and perhaps unconsciously — aim to please him with warm long-range forecasts.

Jul 2, 2012 at 9:52 AM | Registered Commentermatthu

The law of unintended consequences strikes again!

According to the Sun (link):

COAL has overtaken gas as the main method of keeping the UK’s lights on ...

Sir David King and the greens are not happy.

Yet compare the UK, where coal now provides over 40% of our energy, with the US, where it's only 30%. Why? Er ... because the US is exploiting shale gas. And we're not.

Jul 2, 2012 at 9:32 AM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

From the Telegraph "An unholy gale brewing up in Devon" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/9368852/An-unholy-gale-brewing-up-in-Devon.html comes the amazing quote (emphasis added)


says local Green Party activist Ricky Knight..."What I do ask, though, is, if we all keep saying no to wind farms, what are we going to do about seven-metre rises in sea level over the next 20 years?"

He may have been misquoted of course.

Jul 2, 2012 at 8:18 AM | Registered CommenterJonathan Jones

Just one more thing about shale gas/fracking which does not seem to have got much publicity:

The single operational shale gas frack in the Cuadrilla area (Elswick) has been producing gas for almost 20 years and contributing 1 MW to the national grid. No water pollution and 2 reported minor tremors.

Jul 1, 2012 at 6:59 PM | Registered CommenterDung

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