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A few sites I've stumbled across recently....
That secret meeting. GWPF responds to the RS:http://www.thegwpf.org/royal-society-fellows-meet-reactions/
Greensand, it's always good to look back on previous predictions in the light of subsequent events.
I notice there's not a mention of ocean heat uptake influencing those predictions (and surprisingly they ARE called "predictions"!) even though late in the day AR5 brought that in as the favoured excuse for missing previous temperature forecasts (by a mile). So is that relevant or not, we should be told. Oh what a tangled web we weave...
I hadn't picked up on the decadal forecast being only 5 years (too funny) and do we know why the downtick is predicted in 2016ish? What on earth is in their models to cause that?
And having read their "How to use our long-range predictions" I'm still none the wiser. There's a long-winded explanation of how odds work plus loads of *rse-covering caveats "care is needed", "could be wrong" etc. All correct but what is a decision maker supposed to do with the forecast...apart from bin it. I'm still on my quest to find anyone who actively uses this stuff to explain how it enhances their decision making process.
Did the desalination plant builders use a forecast like this? Did our Councils not stock enough grit as a result of a forecast like this?
Fairplay though, they are publishing all their forecasts clearly. It's just handling what to do when they're not very good that needs working on.
(Oh and I see my favourite hurricane forecast is included in that list too.)
Dec 11, 2013 at 9:29 PM | Unregistered Commenter michael hart
[...] I was thinking about this website, which some may like to use as an antidote...
Speaking of "antidotes" ...
I've become encouraged by the signs of an approaching critical (in both senses of the word!) mass of material that must be somewhat unsettling to the Klimateers' (many of whom might reasonably be dubbed "pathalogical altruists") dedication to "the cause" - not the least of which is the rapid descent in the credibility of the once mighty AGU, whose own dedication to "the cause" has led them down the disgraceful path of "inviting" Cook and Lewandowsky to present at their annual confab.
OTOH, I've become somewhat discouraged by parallel indications of the increasing ascendancy of the IPCC's younger sibling, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) - which is "modelled" on the IPCC:
On Tuesday, 10 December 2013, IPBES-2 reconvened in Antalya, Turkey. In the morning, delegates continued discussion on: the initial work programme of the Platform, including the draft work programme for 2014-2018 and the conceptual framework; the financial and budgetary arrangements for 2014-2018; and options for the trust fund and financial procedures. In the late morning and afternoon delegates turned to the rules and procedures for the Platform’s operation. Three contact groups also met to discuss the initial work programme and conceptual framework, the budget, and rules and procedures. [Source][and]On Wednesday morning, 11 December 2013, IPBES-2 met to address communications and stakeholder engagement, including: the communications and outreach strategy; the stakeholder engagement strategy; and guidance on strategic partnerships. Delegates also discussed institutional arrangements, including the UN collaborative partnership arrangements for the Platform’s work. Contact groups on rules and procedures, budget and the initial work programme met throughout the day. [Source]
On Wednesday morning, 11 December 2013, IPBES-2 met to address communications and stakeholder engagement, including: the communications and outreach strategy; the stakeholder engagement strategy; and guidance on strategic partnerships. Delegates also discussed institutional arrangements, including the UN collaborative partnership arrangements for the Platform’s work. Contact groups on rules and procedures, budget and the initial work programme met throughout the day. [Source]
These IPBES visionaries (the vice-Chair is UEA's Bob Watson, who once-upon-a-time was the Chair of the IPCC) are bound and determined to "put nature on the balance sheet": Translation, "Since the UN can't make any big bucks from various and sundry 'mechanisms' to fill their coffers with a 'carbon tax', they're moving the goal posts onto the bigger - and overarching - field of 'sustainable development' with its concomitant 'mechanisms' of coffer-filling pricing on 'ecosystem services'".
So, as I wavered between being encouraged and being discouraged, I found the following Seasonal antidote was quite an amusing, at times touching, and very well-executed distraction - notwithstanding the fact that one must acknowledge that it is a soft-sell marketing exercise, which promotes consumerism.
But, given a choice between Greenpeace's "vision" of Santa [see http://youtu.be/CCQJuzSqj6s] and that of WestJet, I'll fly with WestJet, thank you very much!
Met Office making sure that this year they are not accused of making unannounced Xmas Eve changes to their "Decadal forecast":-
" Forecast issued December 2012. The forecast will be updated in January 2014."
Just to make sure they say it twice
Obviously the MO employee targets have changed as the reason given for last year's Xmas Eve posting was that it had to be done on that date in order for an individual to comply with agreed data release timescales.
I wonder how long the accompanying press release will be in January? Also will it be a "Decadal forecast" or another "5 year long Decadal forecast"? Will it take into account the MO Chief Scientist's concern about the PDO and not yet being out of the woods?
Not to mention the AMO, well not yet, maybe...
Jeez @philip B , you're right the entire BBC article seems to be a RenewableUKpress release about their event in Devon/Cornwall .. It's a disgrace that the sub-editor didn't make that clear in the title at the beginning
OT, but it did make me smile..LinkDec 11, 2013 at 2:17 PM | Registered Commenterjamesp
Dec 11, 2013 at 2:17 PM | Registered Commenterjamesp
Anyway, for no good reason earlier today I was thinking about this website, which some may like to use as an antidote...
Local industry to me, so can't be too rude about it. Impressive but pointless, perhaps...
mikeh Thanks anyway, always interesting to know exactly what these schemes will actually deliver.
Tim Yeo to challenge decision to de-select him.
All members of his constituency party will be balloted.
OT, but it did make me smile..
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