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SimonW

But you have to admit our MO are correct with the following forecast:-

"...we’re heading into winter..."

Also it is good to see our MO using their expertise to criticise sensational and alarmist articles/headlines. I am looking forward to more of the same:-)

Oct 13, 2013 at 10:52 PM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand

Hi Phillip,

yes, I did almost mention Piers. Reading about him beating the Met Office forecasts and getting banned by William Hills was one of the first things that made me question the party line on CAGW (I am a professional gambler so I was impressed). I've said before that I think that fact is a BIG thing to show the Met Office are no good at forecasting and more should have been made of it.

Sadly, despite looking in the years since I've seen no further verification if his forecasts are any good or not (e.g. better than chance). If Piers had a PR team they should provide proof of his banning from Hills and details of exactly what the bets were. They should also provide audited proof of the accuracy of his ongoing forecasts. Without that I'm afraid I have to take his claims with a pinch of salt also, I've seen too many dubious tipsters.

The MO are so bad (at longer timescales) due to their over-warm models that you could still be better than them but not better than chance if you see what I mean.

Oct 13, 2013 at 10:38 PM | Registered CommenterSimonW

Simon:

Piers Corbyn might disagree with the MO, He's been selling his long term forecasts for many years. The difference is his forecast is based on science, not a computer model and a supercomputer.

Oct 13, 2013 at 10:18 PM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

Err, this is a change of stance by the Met Office isn't it?

You can't forecast winter

"The science simply does not exist to make detailed, long-term forecasts for temperature and snowfall even for the end of November, let alone for the winter period"

Weren't they doing this themselves until recently when they found they were so bad at it they gave up? It's a bit rich to be ticking off the Express for doing the same.

Is this all part of the retrenchment to what the sceptics have been saying all along, i.e. predicting weather/climate more than a few days in advance is a fools errand.

Oct 13, 2013 at 10:03 PM | Registered CommenterSimonW

This from NoTricksZone

It's the sun stupid !

http://notrickszone.com/2013/10/11/gross-scientific-negligence-ipcc-ignored-huge-body-of-peer-reviewed
-literature-showing-suns-clear-impact/
123 in fact.

Oct 13, 2013 at 5:46 PM | Unregistered CommenterRoss Lea

@ Brent Hargreaves and Roger Longstaff, thanks!! :) More soon... (Just been watching Ed Davey on the Andrew Marr show, also Chris Huhne on the Sunday Politics.)

Oct 13, 2013 at 4:04 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlex Cull

Sandy:

Yes, I saw that one. It's funny that all the adverts we get for "Visit Scotland" show a pristine environment, unmarred by wind turbines. They must be using old film shots.

Oct 13, 2013 at 2:01 PM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

BBC1 Tonight "a corrupt MP and money whizz wife" episode of the police drama "By Any Means" .... "any resemblence ..." to any MP we might know ?

Oct 13, 2013 at 12:54 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Tony Blair repealed the death penalty for Treason, which was prescient of him, if nothing else. From his experience, and that of the unspeakable Nokia Thrower, I believe the penalty is to be sent round the world being paid vast sums talking to people who won't listen until you're very, very sorry.

Oct 13, 2013 at 12:50 PM | Unregistered CommenterKevin Lohse

Philip,
An application for a "Windfarm" on the Ochils overlooking Gleneagles (Ryder Cup 2014) was rejected (I think) as it wouldn't be good for Scotland's Tourist image. Horses and stable doors in my opinion as they are everywhere.

Oct 13, 2013 at 12:33 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

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