Whoa! Entropic Man writes: "If climate sensitivity is 1.5, then that 1C forcing would only produce a total change of 1.5C." What???? Some kind of mystical multiplier!

Climate sensitivity is the increase in global temperatures from a doubling of CO2. Autrement dit, if CO2 rises from the current 400ppm to 800ppm a temperatuure rise of 1.5C will happen if - and it's a big if - that figure of 1.5 is correct. Previous guesstimates have been higher than 1.5, viz the IPCC's "Fourth Assessment Report" of 2007 which magicked up a value of 2C to 4.5C, multiplied by the weasel word "likely".

If climate scientists ruled the world the acceleration due to gravity would be "likely" 12-35 m/s2 and the carrying capacity of motorway bridges "likely" 20T-45T until the next report. With, in the Summary for Policymakers, the weasel words, "the science is settled". Are they deliberate charlatans and deceivers or well-intentioned irrational believers?

"If it is small, then our CO2 forcing will only have a small effect on climate and we can burn,baby, burn.
If it is large, then we need to stop burning.
Oct 19, 2018 at 1:59 PM Entropic man"

There is no OBSERVED evidence to support large numbers for ECS, only output from computer models programmed by Climate Scientists.

We can make a start by burning Climate Science. The 20 year trial is over. Case dismissed. No evidence submitted to back up allegations.

https://judithcurry.com/2018/04/24/impact-of-recent-forcing-and-ocean-heat-uptake-data-on-estimates-of-climate-sensitivity/

Radical Rodent

"Remind you of anyone?"

You describe yourself!

Tomo

Funny how you get rude when I'm right.

Robert Swan

"I have a feeling that in most places where you say "climate" you should be saying "temperature". If CO2 is an input factor, the response needs to be in a simple variable, which climate obviously isn't "

Not juat temperature. A temperature increase cascades into other effects. For example, each 1C increase in air temperature allows the air to carry 7% more water vapour, leading to more rainfall, more cloud cover, changes in weather patterns and more intense hurricanes.

It's like finite element analysis in engineering. Change the force in one element and it changes the stress and strain right across the structure. The weight of a lorry driving across a bridge is a forcing. The resulting temporary changes in the bridge are the feedbacks.

"I don't know what to make of the importance you ascribe to cause. I presume you'd rate CO2 spewed from a volcano as a "forcing"."

Everthing is cause and effect, though sometimes not easy to disentangle. I regard focings as causes and feedbacks as effects.

If the state of one region changes, that changes conditions in adjacent areas ans so on around the planet. That is effects, feedback and ultimately the whole system will settle into equilibrium.

Put in an external forcing such as a change in insolation, a change in CO2 or a change in orbit and the climate responds with similar feedbacks regardless of what causes the change in energy. Remember my earlier comments on Earth System Sensitivity.

Using the bridge analogy, it doesnt matter whether the load is a lorry or a bus or a tanker. Put a similar load on the bridge and you get a similar response.

The climate equivalent of VIX is climate sensitivity. This, put simply is the ratio of total effect to forcing.

Thus if climate sensitivity is 3, a forcing which causes a 1C temperature rise might end up producing a 3C warming when you add in the effects of climate feedbacks.

If climate sensitivity is 1.5, then that 1C forcing would only produce a total change of 1.5C.

This is why climate sensitivity is such a sensitive subject.😕

If it is small, then our CO2 forcing will only have a small effect on climate and we can burn,baby, burn.

If it is large, then we need to stop burning.

"Unfortunately only a few people are willing to dig beyond one simple number, so global annual average temperature is the headline number the MSM and the politicians want to hear.
Oct 19, 2018 at 1:03 AM | Entropic man"

No, Climate Science cooked-up big scary numbers that would make good headlines for MSM and Politicians. Mann's Hockey Stick was even coloured in, using deception.

Nothing significant or unprecedented has happened since.

What HAS changed, is the amount of film footage, capable of being transmitted from all over the world, of "extreme weather events", that happen all the time, somewhere in the world, that previously went unrecorded. The MSM, Politicians and emotional blackmailers love it.

The standard of driving on the roads has not suddenly got worse. DashCam video recorders have meant that more instances of freak events, stupidity etc are recorded and broadcast all over the world.

DashCam and fixed CCTV has also confirmed how minor changes in road layout, junctions, traffic light sequencing etc can have significant effects on accidents and casualties.

The quest for dramatic footage of storms, waves flooding etc, has also led to deaths.

I also am IT shy (and ignorant) but have often wished private e-mail exchange with some here on occasion. Formerly if any wished to contact me it was easy by using my UEA e-mail address. However this is no longer possible since UEA and I severed contact.

I'm not IT sceptic but I am social media and dodgy organisation shy. I like Squarespace and Wordpress sites because I can comment even with cookies turned off. I don't mind too much signing in with Google because this email is one I reserve for dodgier commenting (not a reflection on these sites, just some of the people who might be watching) but even then I only sign up when I really, really want to say something.