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Whoa! Entropic Man writes: "If climate sensitivity is 1.5, then that 1C forcing would only produce a total change of 1.5C." What???? Some kind of mystical multiplier!

Climate sensitivity is the increase in global temperatures from a doubling of CO2. Autrement dit, if CO2 rises from the current 400ppm to 800ppm a temperatuure rise of 1.5C will happen if - and it's a big if - that figure of 1.5 is correct. Previous guesstimates have been higher than 1.5, viz the IPCC's "Fourth Assessment Report" of 2007 which magicked up a value of 2C to 4.5C, multiplied by the weasel word "likely".

If climate scientists ruled the world the acceleration due to gravity would be "likely" 12-35 m/s2 and the carrying capacity of motorway bridges "likely" 20T-45T until the next report. With, in the Summary for Policymakers, the weasel words, "the science is settled". Are they deliberate charlatans and deceivers or well-intentioned irrational believers?

Oct 19, 2018 at 4:01 PM | Unregistered CommenterBrent Hargreaves

OK Mark Rowley was on #R4Today making claims
So lets check
Lets Google : British Muslim spokesman
Let's hit the VIDEO button
His claims seem to be FakeNews
https://www.twitter.com/BiasMonitor/status/1053279699558895616

Oct 19, 2018 at 3:59 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

We've discussed forcing before under Discussion threads
so I see no point in repeating the discussion here in Unthreaded.
I think new points belong in such threads, not mixed in with the other stuff here.

Oct 19, 2018 at 3:54 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

"If it is small, then our CO2 forcing will only have a small effect on climate and we can burn,baby, burn.
If it is large, then we need to stop burning.
Oct 19, 2018 at 1:59 PM Entropic man"

There is no OBSERVED evidence to support large numbers for ECS, only output from computer models programmed by Climate Scientists.

We can make a start by burning Climate Science. The 20 year trial is over. Case dismissed. No evidence submitted to back up allegations.

https://judithcurry.com/2018/04/24/impact-of-recent-forcing-and-ocean-heat-uptake-data-on-estimates-of-climate-sensitivity/

Oct 19, 2018 at 2:27 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Radical Rodent

"Remind you of anyone?"

You describe yourself!

Tomo

Funny how you get rude when I'm right.

Oct 19, 2018 at 2:01 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Robert Swan

"I have a feeling that in most places where you say "climate" you should be saying "temperature". If CO2 is an input factor, the response needs to be in a simple variable, which climate obviously isn't "

Not juat temperature. A temperature increase cascades into other effects. For example, each 1C increase in air temperature allows the air to carry 7% more water vapour, leading to more rainfall, more cloud cover, changes in weather patterns and more intense hurricanes.

It's like finite element analysis in engineering. Change the force in one element and it changes the stress and strain right across the structure. The weight of a lorry driving across a bridge is a forcing. The resulting temporary changes in the bridge are the feedbacks.

"I don't know what to make of the importance you ascribe to cause. I presume you'd rate CO2 spewed from a volcano as a "forcing"."

Everthing is cause and effect, though sometimes not easy to disentangle. I regard focings as causes and feedbacks as effects.

If the state of one region changes, that changes conditions in adjacent areas ans so on around the planet. That is effects, feedback and ultimately the whole system will settle into equilibrium.

Put in an external forcing such as a change in insolation, a change in CO2 or a change in orbit and the climate responds with similar feedbacks regardless of what causes the change in energy. Remember my earlier comments on Earth System Sensitivity.

Using the bridge analogy, it doesnt matter whether the load is a lorry or a bus or a tanker. Put a similar load on the bridge and you get a similar response.

The climate equivalent of VIX is climate sensitivity. This, put simply is the ratio of total effect to forcing.

Thus if climate sensitivity is 3, a forcing which causes a 1C temperature rise might end up producing a 3C warming when you add in the effects of climate feedbacks.

If climate sensitivity is 1.5, then that 1C forcing would only produce a total change of 1.5C.

This is why climate sensitivity is such a sensitive subject.😕

If it is small, then our CO2 forcing will only have a small effect on climate and we can burn,baby, burn.

If it is large, then we need to stop burning.

Oct 19, 2018 at 1:59 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

R4 Now Radio5's Rachael Burden plugging electrica cars
says she loves hers
but adds it only works cos the family have 2 cars, so have one petrol vehicle that can do the reliable mileage.
Followed by Steve Follower who was also a promoter
"Oh I can drive my Nissan Leaf 300Km in a day ... and I am just launching DrivingElectric.com"

===================

Next item a door knocking corp has called itself "The Gas Board" and is trying to sign up pensioners for boiler maintenance schemes
..it's website uses lots of fake testimonials

Oct 19, 2018 at 12:32 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

"Unfortunately only a few people are willing to dig beyond one simple number, so global annual average temperature is the headline number the MSM and the politicians want to hear.
Oct 19, 2018 at 1:03 AM | Entropic man"

No, Climate Science cooked-up big scary numbers that would make good headlines for MSM and Politicians. Mann's Hockey Stick was even coloured in, using deception.

Nothing significant or unprecedented has happened since.

What HAS changed, is the amount of film footage, capable of being transmitted from all over the world, of "extreme weather events", that happen all the time, somewhere in the world, that previously went unrecorded. The MSM, Politicians and emotional blackmailers love it.

The standard of driving on the roads has not suddenly got worse. DashCam video recorders have meant that more instances of freak events, stupidity etc are recorded and broadcast all over the world.

DashCam and fixed CCTV has also confirmed how minor changes in road layout, junctions, traffic light sequencing etc can have significant effects on accidents and casualties.

The quest for dramatic footage of storms, waves flooding etc, has also led to deaths.

Oct 19, 2018 at 11:16 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

I also am IT shy (and ignorant) but have often wished private e-mail exchange with some here on occasion. Formerly if any wished to contact me it was easy by using my UEA e-mail address. However this is no longer possible since UEA and I severed contact.

Oct 19, 2018 at 9:47 AM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

I'm not IT sceptic but I am social media and dodgy organisation shy. I like Squarespace and Wordpress sites because I can comment even with cookies turned off. I don't mind too much signing in with Google because this email is one I reserve for dodgier commenting (not a reflection on these sites, just some of the people who might be watching) but even then I only sign up when I really, really want to say something.

Oct 19, 2018 at 9:16 AM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

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