Mailman,
I suspect it's a multi-dimensional tug-of-war with quite a few different motivations, just as complicated and unpredicable as the weather. A deal with Ukraine for mineral resources is up there on sovereign risk. Will future Ukrainian leaders continue to honour the deal? Will Ukraine ultimately be annexed by Russia? Might a minerals deal make that more likely? Might it ultimately lead to a big war? Who knows!

Thought this piece on the German elections was interesting. The map shows a very clean division with AFD winning a solid block of eastern electorates and CDU getting nearly all the west. The accompanying text explains how AFD will end up with essentially no represenation despite the map showing it winning 5 states versus CDU's 7.

Seven significant parties makes the politics refreshingly different from the (essentially) two-way contests in Aus, UK and USA. Maybe doesn't have much ultimate effect. I get the feeling the bureaucratic blob isn't so different.

In regards to Ukraine, what I find interesting is the fact America gave funding to Ukraine (terrible move) and Europe gave loans (tight bastards!).

Now, how do you suppose the Ukraine will pay back those future loans to the EU? Gonna be very hard to do that if America and the Ukraine sign a trade agreement giving America 50% of all their rare earth minerals!?!?

Maybe this explains the head explosions going off across Europe and their need to keep the war going?

Also, if America and the Ukraine sign that agreement then that guarantees Americas presence in the region (to protect their investment obviously). With a strong American President and a reinvigorated American military Id make that agreement if I was dictator Vlod!

Not so sure Id put my lot in with the soy boys in Europe though?? Maybe if they paid more attention to their own borders eh??

At Judith Curry's, Ross McKitrick on the so-called social cost of carbon. He goes into how it has been statistically overestimated, and the difficulties he had getting that fact published.

He doesn't gloat on finally getting published: points out that political change in the USA has made his academic efforts academic.

tomo,
Yes, the RS did quite a few good things in years past. I associate the presidency of Robert May with its first unwelcome crossover into politics. Later, Paul Nurse seemed to spend most of his time on the wrong side of the fence. Haven't really kept up with it since then, though I see the current president is a statistician: Adrian Smith. He's been there right through the COVID debacle. That's one time I might have welcomed the RS weighing in politically, but I guess they'd have weighed in on the wrong side.

Won't miss Doctor Who, and hadn't even heard of Casualty. Gave up on the Radio 4 Today show half a dozen years ago. Can't think of anything recent from the BBC that was worth seeing/hearing. At least the ABC can still do occasional good things (like Utopia), and even its wokest offerings can't hold a candle to BBC pap.

Mailman,
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I wouldn't be too surprised (or disappointed) if, having revealed who did what, they lean towards clemency. IMO the key thing is teaching the voters always to be suspicious of big bureaucracy and the people pushing it.

Mildly enjoyed Konstantin Kisin's talk at ARC. It's a bit of a hybrid between standup patter and a political speech.

And today, Jo Nova covers $20 billion the EPA received and its apparent intention to be a political fighting fund. Strong whiff of the swamp about it.

Additionally, Europe seems determined to keep the war in the Ukraine going at any cost...especially if that cost is dead Ukrainians.

They blather on about a sustainable and enduring peace but not once did those same people ever demand a sustainable and enduring peace in Gaza.

Boy, if the left didnt have double standards they really wouldn't have any standards at all.

I see shit is about to start hitting the fan in America;

https://twitchy.com/samj/2025/02/20/operation-whirlwind-trump-n2408657

What I would love to see is the same tactics used against Democrats that they used against Trump, full on armed attack at each of their residences with no quarter given. Give these people back what they meted out to Trump and conservatives across America.

Gonna be lovely watching them all squeal like piggies! :)

tomo,
True enough. There are both vultures and jackals, though I think the vultures got there first and attracted the jackals to the carcass.

The Imperial College scandals and Prof. Grimm suicide in particular keep bumping into the fact that knowledge is secondary to money. Much the same as Jo Nova's piece on the Royal Society yesterday (a drive to kick Musk out of the RS because he poses a threat to funding).

I've given up on the Josh Szeps podcast. Way too self-absorbed (calls to mind Little Britain and the only gay boy in the village).

Comments today at Jo Nova's point out that Doctor Who might be for the axe. Honestly didn't know it was still going. I think even the ABC hasn't bothered with the recent ones.