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Dung@1:35 PM

aye - point taken. I don't know much about fracking gas production dynamics - once a formation has been fracked I can imagine there is a finite time window where production is viable - hence they have to dump product. I assume it is highly geology dependent.

Dumping it at below cost seems perverse...

Jul 6, 2012 at 11:30 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age
Applied Physics Research Vol. 4, No. 1; February 2012

Since the Sun is now approaching the phase of decrease of bicentennial luminosity on the basis of observed
accelerating drop in both the 11-year and bicentennial components of TSI from early 90s, we can forecast its
further decline similar to a so called Maunder minimum down to 1363.4±0.8 W/m2, 1361.0±1.6 W/m2 and down to a deep minimal level 1359.5±2.4 W/m2 in the minima between the cycles 24/25, 25/26 and 26/27, respectively (Fig. 3). Assuming an expected increase in the duration of the eleven-year cycles during the phase of decline of a bicentennial cycle (Abdussamatov, 2006, 2009a,b), we can expect the approximate moment of minimum between the cycles 24/25, 25/26 and 26/27 in 2020.3±0.6, 2031.6±1.2 and 2042.9±1.8, respectively. Under these circumstances the maximal smoothed for 13 months level of sunspot number in the cycles 24, 25 and 26 can reach 65±15, 45±20 and 30±20, respectively (Abdussamatov, 2007b, 2009a,b). Hence, we can expect the onset of a deep bicentennial minimum of TSI in approximately 2042±11 and of the 19th deep minimum of global temperature in the past 7500 years – in 2055±11 (Fig. 4). In the nearest future we will observe a transition (between global warming and global cooling) period of unstable climate changes with the global temperature fluctuating around its maximum value reached in 1998-2005. After the maximum of solar cycle 24, from approximately 2014 we can expect the start of the next bicentennial cycle of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055±11. Thus, long-term variations of TSI (with account for their direct and secondary, based on feedback effects, influence) are the main fundamental cause of climate changes since variations of the Earth climate is mainly determined by a long-term imbalance between the energy of solar radiation entering the upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere and the total energy emitted from the Earth back to space.

Interesting to see how far AR5 goes toward this position

Jul 6, 2012 at 11:00 PM | Registered CommenterLord Beaverbrook

Interesting to see Anthony Watts is putting Piers Corbyn's theories to the test at the moment.

Jul 6, 2012 at 10:29 PM | Registered Commenterpeterwalsh

Leo Hickman has been there already......

Will Jellyfish Rule the World?: A Book About Climate Change [Paperback]
Leo Hickman

Jul 6, 2012 at 10:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterMessenger


At least that is one idiot not being paid for by taxation.

Jul 6, 2012 at 8:00 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Not climate related but its so embarrasing for The Telegraph no reporter will put their name to it.

Jul 6, 2012 at 7:29 PM | Registered CommenterBreath of Fresh Air

Paul Matthews

Thanks for the insight.

Jul 6, 2012 at 5:53 PM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand

Skiphil, green sand "is there a paper in submission yet?"
If there was, you'd be unlikely to know about it. The climate science approach is to keep papers hidden away for as long as possible.
The two important new CRU papers, on CRUTEM4 and HADCRUT4 were submitted in early Nov 2011.
The first I knew about them was when they were cited in the IPCC AR5 first draft in Dec - so they must have been circulated privately to the IPCC authors. They were not publicly available or mentioned anywhere at that stage. When I asked for them, the IPCC would only make them available in an encrypted form that my computer couldn't read.

Jul 6, 2012 at 5:02 PM | Registered CommenterPaul Matthews

This project will seek to systematically reassess and quantify the evidence for divergence in many tree-ring data sets around the Northern Hemisphere. It will establish a much clearer understanding of the nature of the divergence phenomenon

No risk of failure then.
What exactly do scientists know today that they didnt know when they "ups accidentally hid the decline". I have not seen any new papers that claim to suddenly understand tree rings in a new way?

Jul 6, 2012 at 4:53 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Skiphill, Green Sand. I predict another set of epicycles coming. What phenomenon could have affected those trees in the last few years which could not be an explanation in hisorical terms. Epicycles, that's what.

And why is it that for every warmist telling us they don't need the hockey stick there is another trying to revive it?

I wonder if they'll send the paper, data and code to Steve McI first to save us all the trouble of having to correct it?

Jul 6, 2012 at 4:26 PM | Registered Commenterrhoda

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