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« Thursday open thread | Main | Wednesday open thread »
Wednesday
Oct232013

Fast freeze

Isn't the Arctic refreeze quick this year? The extent figures are rapidly approaching the 2000s average, something that has only happened in the first half of recent years. Yet we're still in autumn.

Interesting times.

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Reader Comments (118)

Don't forget the Antarctic. All this extra snow cover and ice seems to be considered a good thing. I much prefer less snow.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/22/nasa-announces-new-record-growth-of-antarctic-sea-ice-extent/#more-96133

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:03 AM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

This too.......

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/22/nasa-announces-new-record-growth-of-antarctic-sea-ice-extent/

Would like to see Zeds response.....

Please don't delete for a while mods?

Please?

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:04 AM | Unregistered Commenterjones

Bugger.....minute late....

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:05 AM | Unregistered Commenterjones

I'll wager the Beeb's resident climate pessimist Jonathan Amos doesn't report this 'good news'.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:10 AM | Unregistered CommenterJoe Public

One ice-cube doth not an iceberg make. The ice extent could as easily be down to benign weather just as last year's record low was due to bad weather breaking up the ice pack. I suggest that at least 3 more years of arctic ice accretion together with continued harsh winters in the NH as natural variation takes it's toll are necessary before we sceptics can claim justification for our theories. Even then, she who must not be named will continue to make millennialist claims.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:15 AM | Unregistered CommenterKevin Lohse

means nothing you need 15 years or 17 years or 30 years, or what ever the current claim is to 'prove ' we not due for climate doom.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:18 AM | Unregistered CommenterKNR

Winter is coming

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:22 AM | Unregistered CommenterJace_F

Winter is coming

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:25 AM | Unregistered CommenterJace_F

Winters are a thing of the past. Children won't know what winter is.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:27 AM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:18 AM | KNR

Whereas a 3-day storm is ample proof we're heading for Climate Armageddon?

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:28 AM | Unregistered CommenterKevin Lohse

I made a comment elsewhere recently that the warm-mongers cried when the icecap melted and they are crying even more now that it is growing again.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:29 AM | Unregistered CommenterJimmy Haigh

"Children won't know what winter is."


Where is he nowadays?

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:30 AM | Unregistered Commenterjones

jones: Dr Viner now runs the Climate Change programme at the British Council. So we taxpayers are still rewarding him handsomely for being so so wrong.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:34 AM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

I write to Dr. Viner periodically asking him whether he stands by his statement, or maybe would like to modify it. No reply so far. It's like asking a turkey to vote for Christmas.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:38 AM | Unregistered CommenterBrent Hargreaves

I was wrong. Viner has moved on and is presumably making even more money out of his climate change expertise and worldwide reputation for getting it right.

Mott MacDonald has appointed Dr David Viner as principal advisor for climate change. An internationally recognised expert, David brings with him 20 years of experience working in the area of climate change.
David worked for 17 years at the University of East Anglia’s (UEA) Climatic Research Unit, where he developed a worldwide reputation working across all areas of climate change. He led UK public engagement on climate change adaptation and advised both the UK government and international agencies. During this time he was also director of the UEA’s innovative climate change masters course.
In 2007 David took up a new position as Natural England’s principal climate change specialist where he developed an adaptation framework and indicators for climate change. In 2008 David was appointed global director at The British Council where he developed a ground breaking cultural relations strategy and programme that was delivered through 250 offices in 109 countries. Working across UK government departments and in collaboration with international agencies, businesses and national governments, the programme was publicly endorsed by the UK government, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and other leading agencies.
Mott MacDonald’s environment manager Ian Allison said: “We are delighted to welcome David to Mott MacDonald. Sustainability and climate change are important drivers for our business. As awareness of these issues increases, the consultancy is continuing to develop its services and skills to help in strategies for adaptation, mitigation and institutional reform to respond to these challenges. David’s outstanding expertise in areas such as water resources, agriculture and environmental systems together with his extensive publication record make his appointment a real coup for the company. His arrival signifies our growing business involvement in the area of climate change and commitment to this important sector.”
David was a co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for his contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change between 1993-2007. He is also an Honorary Lifetime Friend of the Countryside for his work on climate change and the European countryside. He has published over 100 papers and research reports and has undertaken numerous public lectures around the world.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:40 AM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

Anyone noticed how this is not news at the Beeb, or indeed how the arctic loss is still being quoted during (for example) Question Time debates on energy prices ?

In May during a CAGW debate on another forum I offered a friendly bet (bottle of reasonable wine) with someone who predicted little or no ice this summer. He/she/it refused - not willing to stand by the claim.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:43 AM | Unregistered CommenterMorph

Watching the movement of ice, there seems to be a connection between ice flowing out of the Arctic and high pressure in the UK. This summer we've had clear skies and the ice has idled in the Arctic basin. Whenever we get wet and windy (like now) the ice starts pouring out. Last year was particularly bad. This condition continues into the winter and actually we don't want to see a high ice extent until very late in the winter because high early values reflect the amount of ice rushing down the side of Greenland. The extent gets bigger but the thickness decreases. Long term I don't think there's an obvious link between our weather and Artic ice durability but it might be a feature since the ice has become more mobile.

My WAG - if we have lots of clear skies and a cold winter, the ice will get thicker but if we have a warm, wet, windy winter the extent might be pleasing but the ice will be weak going into next year.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:05 AM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

David was a co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for his contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change between 1993-2007.

Viner is a Nobel Peace Prize winner!

Who knew?

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:06 AM | Unregistered CommenterSwiss Bob

Yes, yes but it's ice extent. Everyone knows it's thin as tissue paper. Could easily paddle a canoe through it.

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:06 AM | Registered CommenterGrantB

Swiss Bob - "Viner is a Nobel Peace Prize winner! Who knew?"
Well if Donna didn't before, she does now.

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:11 AM | Registered CommenterGrantB

Swiss Bob: "...Viner is a Nobel Peace Prize winner!..."

No, he's not - and nor are all the other contributors to the IPCC that Pachauri, wrongly described as Nobel laureates. Others have also made that mistake, to their ridicule (a certain M. Mann springs to mind). Even Pachauri has described himself as a Nobel Laureate, which he ai'nt The Nobel Peace prize was awarded (for some obscure reason) to the IPCC Organization.

See Donna LaFambroise,she has all the low-down on that.

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:13 AM | Unregistered CommenterOld Goat

GrantB: I've notified Donna at http://fakenobellaureates.com/

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:13 AM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

It would be a laugh if the arctic ice trended back towards the base line average of the next couple of decades...

to quote (climategate emails)

"....What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural
fluctuation? They'll kill us probably..."

But the very next sentence is worth a mention as well.

"Back to McIntyre: what to do? Get away from the YES and NO camp, find the
humble, middle road. There is a passage in the bible: if someone hits you on
your cheek, turn him your other cheek..."

http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/1682.txt

which were emails from the dendrochronology forum...

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:38 AM | Unregistered CommenterBarry Woods

It is climate change, isn't it? Obviously caused by mankind's production of CO2. Our politicians will not see any need to change their green policies - at least not until they become convinced that such policies are major vote-losers.

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:44 AM | Unregistered CommenterRoy

By the way I forgot to mention, in my comments a few minutes ago, that my views should carry considerable weight. I am a citizen of the EU and therefore also a Nobel laureate!

Nobel Peace Prize 2012 awarded to European Union
http://europa.eu/about-eu/basic-information/eu-nobel/

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterRoy

Sorry about you guys in the UK, but, if cold winters and clear skies are needed to keep the ice pack in place a few more years (or a decade, or two, until the Scam dies...), then.... 'put on a jumper.'

Sorry.......

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:54 AM | Unregistered CommenterOtter

I agree that the rapid re-freeze in the last 6 weeks is just weather. But after having just watched one of Bob Carter's lectures, he makes the very valid point that all the 'climate change' we have witnessed in the last 30 years (including the much lamented loss of Arctic sea-ice) is just weather. Defining 'climate' as an average of just 30 years of weather is deeply flawed, not just in the context of geological timescales, but because we know there are multi-decadal with longer periods, which make coherent statistical analysis of short term trends difficult if not impossible.

Oct 23, 2013 at 9:54 AM | Registered Commenterlapogus

Um, the speed of the refreeze is about the same (or maybe even less) as the previous years, isn't it? It's just that it didn't go quite as low this summer.

Oct 23, 2013 at 10:03 AM | Unregistered CommenterDoug McNeall

In May during a CAGW debate on another forum I offered a friendly bet (bottle of reasonable wine) with someone who predicted little or no ice this summer. He/she/it refused - not willing to stand by the claim.

Oct 23, 2013 at 8:43 AM | Unregistered CommenterMorph

Wouldn't even bet 2€ !! Well that'll get you a reasonable bottle of wine here in france for the moment. Just waiting for that idiot Hollande to raise even more tax.

Oct 23, 2013 at 10:04 AM | Unregistered CommenterStephen Richards

Does anyone take any notice of all this Nobel prize guff except the pompous fools themselves? Lefty twits awarding baubles to other Lefty twits doesn't particularly impress me (Obama, Arafat anyone?). It's all just got crazily out of hand; Baroness Worthington, Lord Mandelson. Lord Deben. Beyond parody. Pass the bucket. (And yes I do wish Monckton didn't bang on about his dubious Lordship).

Thanks for the Climategate link Barry, It's nice to remind yourself of that episode from time to time despite the attempts to hand wave it away by the Yes Minister "enquiries". (For newbies there's a good but long summary here ).

It's so clear that in private many climate "scientists" had similar doubts to the sceptics. From scrolling down in your link:

"Statistically we simply cannot defend global warming, therefore it is going on too short and it is too complex, but if we wait we are too late."

Worth reading the lot (Rob Wilson in there at the bottom being fairly reasonable) on a quiet morning.

Oh, and can't get excited about this over analysis of ice extent. Just seems like more ignorant guessing either way to me. I suppose it was the only vaguely accurate prediction the alarmists had left so if that is now going t*ts up as well....hmmm.

Oct 23, 2013 at 10:08 AM | Registered CommenterSimonW

Lord Monckton only mentions his right to be called Lord Monckton when others challenge it incorrectly.

Oct 23, 2013 at 10:24 AM | Unregistered CommenterRoss Lea

If you look at the NSIDC data site they have some nice charts of the various areas of the Arctic. The data for Hudson's Bay, Kara Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk all show an early start to the freeze. Admittedly only 5 years of data available.

NSIDC Chart Index

Oct 23, 2013 at 10:34 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Mott MacDonald got it right in at least one press release:


David contributed to the reports of the IPCC, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.

... or if this is the same release, they've fixed it. As is common these days, the page is generated when viewed so it's hard to tell when it was last updated.

Oct 23, 2013 at 10:50 AM | Registered Commentersteve ta

My guess would be the 1990's average will be crossed sometime mid to late December. What happens after that is anybody's guess. It certainly won't be taking a break over Christmas.

Oct 23, 2013 at 10:54 AM | Unregistered CommenterCoge

Hi Andrew, all,

I did a quick by-eye analysis of the growth in Artcic sea ice extent - just copying the line from this year to other years.

Here it is.

How fast is Arctic sea ice refreezing this year?
http://dougmcneall.wordpress.com/2013/10/23/how-fast-is-arctic-sea-ice-refreezing-this-year/

Oct 23, 2013 at 11:07 AM | Unregistered CommenterDoug McNeall

In 2012, a fourteen day warm spell in March was “proof” of climate change; the subsequent 14-week cold, miserable, wet summer was “weather”. The late arrival of summer in 2013 was “weather”; I am surprised that the late departure of summer (in the UK) has not yet been trumpeted as “proof”; why the trepidation?

My own prediction for the oncoming winter (based on no other data other than “I feel it in me bones” – much like Mann et al, really, but with an intelligent rationale behind it) is that it is going to be a hard one, and a long one. One good indicator is to look for ladybirds (“ladybugs” in the USA); if their hibernation roosts are easy to find, the winter will be mild; if they are hibernating deep, the winter will be bad.

p.s. talking of Nobel prizes, as Philip Bratby was (Oct 23, 2013 at 8:40 AM), has anyone received their certificate as co-recipient of the Peace Prize to the EU, yet? I know printing out 700 million would be a big task, but surely they should be on top of it by now?

And finally, for Entropic Man – I have yet to find anyone other than yourself who refers to the “C” of CAGW as anything other than “catastrophic”, which could yet be a “CO2-induced” dent to your credibility.

Oct 23, 2013 at 11:22 AM | Unregistered CommenterRadical Rodent

A bit of frost is just weather.

Nothing to see here, and nothing to see in the Guardian either judging by the deafening silence on Arctic and Antarctic ice extent.

Sooo funny.

Oct 23, 2013 at 11:27 AM | Unregistered CommenterCheshirered

"One good indicator is to look for ladybirds"

RR, can you suggest any mechanism by which these wee beasties are able to forecast the coming winter more reliably that the Met Office?

The rowan outside my window has a poor berry crop this year - I thought this indicated that a mild winter was coming.

Oct 23, 2013 at 11:28 AM | Registered Commentersteve ta

Andrew,
You live in Scotland. I live in Scotland and based on the fast freeze for the Arctic, I'm forecasting a cold, snowy winter.
The Scottish Government seems to think so too, with its prepare for winter advice.
Peter

Oct 23, 2013 at 11:34 AM | Unregistered CommenterPeter

From a Barry Woods tweet h/t, Paul Hudson is on BBC1 next Monday 28 Oct at 19.30 on the Inside Out programme. The BBC flier for the show says

'Weatherman Paul Hudson suggests that northern Europe could be entering a mini ice age, and explores the implications for supply chains and infrastructure.'

http://www.radiotimes.com/episode/cprnzd/inside-out--series-24---episode-9

Oct 23, 2013 at 11:37 AM | Registered CommenterPharos

If you have time tweet a protest message to this woman: Christiana Figueres Executive Secretary of UNFCCC
https://twitter.com/CFigueres

Oct 23, 2013 at 11:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterFay Tuncay

Your Rowan, steveta, is lamenting.
======

Oct 23, 2013 at 12:23 PM | Unregistered Commenterkim

@ Doug McNeal

thanks for your post. It is important to keep everything in perspective. Too early to call. Needs another 15 years or so. Just a pity that the alarmists called it too early and as a result we in Britain have been battling falling temperatures with rising energy costs.

Oct 23, 2013 at 12:29 PM | Unregistered CommenterDolphinlegs

I just Googled part of Mr Bratby's comment:

David was a co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for his contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change between 1993-2007.

Which led to this:

David was a co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for his contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change between 1993-2007. He is also an Honorary Lifetime Friend of the Countryside for his work on climate change and the European countryside. He has published over 100 papers and research reports and has undertaken numerous public lectures around the world.

http://www.sustainability.mottmac.com/news/?id=491601

David Viner is a Nobel Laureate :-)

Oct 23, 2013 at 12:33 PM | Unregistered CommenterSwiss Bob

I have just given feedback on the Mott MacDonald site on the David Viner Nobel Prize!

Oct 23, 2013 at 12:47 PM | Unregistered CommenterDavid Jones

It's interesting that my local council is sending out reassuring notices that they are testing all their gritting routes and general preparedness for cold winter conditions, whereas a few years ago we had no such reassurances. They had depleted stocks of grit/salt because we weren't predicted to have any bad weather.

My rowans don't have many berries either. Odd when you consider the overload of fruits on other trees (apples, plums, pears, walnuts). Perhaps rowans have a different flowering time and succumbed to frost or rain - I didn't look at the time. Either that or the birds have eaten them all already.

I am a bit concerned that our woodshed isn't as full as it might be.............

Oct 23, 2013 at 12:48 PM | Unregistered CommenterGrumpy

Just for the record, that press release about David Viner (and his Nobel Laureate) joining Mott MacDonald was dated 18th January 2013.

Oct 23, 2013 at 12:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterGrumpy

I suppose that Greenpeace ship isn't caught in the advancing ice, by any chance..?

That would be SUCH a shame....

Oct 23, 2013 at 12:59 PM | Unregistered CommenterSherlock1

Grumpy - we've had an excellent haul of pears off our one, ancient, neglected tree this year...

Which is good, because I do like a nice pear.... ;)

WHAT..??

Oct 23, 2013 at 1:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterSherlock1

Dr David Viner - principal advisor for climate change - Mott MacDonald - consultancy - (Government).

Oct 23, 2013 at 1:06 PM | Unregistered CommenterMartyn

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