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Reader Comments (258)
Best hope: That some individual or organisation is going to back Anthony to allow him to devote all his time to WUWT? or a new venture expanding his reach.
There are so many visions and wonders to note in this big, wide, wonderful world we live in which are at present suffocated by the overriding obscenity of CAGW that a new or expanded vehicle to hammer it flat, and then be ready to reach for the stars, is my wish.
I maintain my first bet. Hopefully, Anthony has some good statisticians around him.
anything to do with this ?
http://reason.com/blog/2012/07/27/hot-rumor-best-analysis-next-week-to-rep
Ok based on the up date I'm going to say Anthony has won a contract to replace the surface stations with something of his own design and will also get a say in the location of said equipment.
One point about the original announcement that I have not seen emphasized, it has to be something both fairly sudden and unanticipated in timing (at least as a culmination of a project), or else AW could have worked it around his vacation, before or after. "It" both arrived on the scene fairly suddenly AND cannot wait a week or more:
So he didn't have much forewarning and also can't wait too long to address "it" whatever that may be. What if Muller is inviting him to make some kind of first announcement in conjunction with BEST updates (to make up for treating AW poorly with previous announcements)?? Or some independent results on surface temp issues which need to be discussed asap because BEST is about to update this week? ..... OR.... his new surface station technologies are being deployed widely by some major player(s)??
I still prefered the wild, rather than the reasoned speculation!
If it is at 9 pm, the Bishop will be conducting the Office of Compline. "Bretheren, be sober, be vigilant, for your adversary the Devil stalketh about like a roaring lion; whom resist, steadfast in the Faith." How appropriate .....
I don't know about you, alleagra, but I learnt to read from left to right and top to bottom. There is not a lot more frustrating (and for other posters downright annoying) than coming to the end of a thread and commenting without knowing what has been said before.
Also, if comments tend to be as rambling as mine do on occasion, to have to find the top of a posting, scroll down through it and then scroll back up again to find the next one.
Blogs that allow replies to comments under that system are even worse.
What is so difficult in doing what I have just done — scrolling to the bottom of page 1 and clicking on 4 (which is where we were at when I went to bed last night) and then finding the first comment I hadn't read?
Simples.
Could the urgency of the timing be related to AR5 deadline?
Agree with Mike, most recent comments should be at the foot of the page. It makes more sense for reading a thread and it means that every comment stays on the page it was posted - so has a fixed url.
Though I would like an option to click on page 1, 2, 3, 4... at the top of the page as well, so returning readers don't have to scroll down just to change page.
Re: Sunday - while I think there is big news a foot on LENR, which will have a global significance and change everything - http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/spawar-space-and-naval-warfare-lenr-proof/ , I think Anthony's announcement will relate to his surface station project and/or BEST.
And where is Willis? His last post on WUWT was of July 17.
Maybe Anthony and Willis will present a major scientific paper on UHI and surface stations data?
My bet is the stuff Heartland paid for.
He's found Trenberth's missing heat?
Jul 28, 2012 at 8:09 AM | PeteB
Yeah read through that and I think you are right. if I was punting anywhere now then I'd say that Muller is going to make some overblown announcement on Monday, Anthony Watts got wind of it, and I think - from what I know of his feelings about Mullers last announcement - he is going to rush out some spoiler announcement on Sunday.
I sense a hell of a lot of unedifying bluster about historic temperature data coming along for the next week or so.
I'm not in that audience that subscribes to the belief that climate science is verging on a revelatory "Higgs Boson" moment, either way. Well that's my last speculation - now lets see how wrong I am :)
I'm kinda hoping that it is that and it will be some sort of unintended watershed moment for "both" sides ;)
Re: PeteB
Have BEST's papers about their methods passed peer review and been published yet?
Not that peer review actually counts for much, but the last time Muller made an announcement he was criticised because the papers hadn't even been reviewed and I can't remember reading anything about them being published.
Roger Longstaff @ 10:19
Bugger!! You beat me to it!
Quite agree with you Mike Jackson. What indeed is so difficult about scrolling down the first page and hitting the final page number to see the earlier entries and then work upwards.
I'll skip the inclination to add 'does your mouse or keypad or whatever not work both ways?' comment because it would be gratuitous, wouldn't it? Rather like 'I don't know about you Alleagra ...' . It is of course all a matter of taste and many blogs do in fact put their most recent comments first. Each to his own.
Anyway I'm sure we're all on tenterhooks and little over-excited so let's try and get through calmly until Sunday.
He's installed new high efficiency servers that can handle a billion simultaneous queries.
Anthony's filled me on what's happening. Nothing to do with FOIA, Some commenters have correctly guessed (but not saying which ones.)
What were the two passwords that unlocked the emails for climategate 1 and climategate 2?
Well, it was fun guessing. And if ANYONE was let in on the secret, I would have tagged Steve McIntyre as that man.
His impish post is reassuring, so we wait another 30 hours to find out.
It is a shame that Anthony has toned down his announcement because I have belly laughed my way through all the posts on here and was hoping it would get even wilder before Sunday ^.^
Jul 27, 2012 at 10:24 PM | Registered CommenterDung
===================
I did my part!
I agree with you and the comments were moving as fast as I could read. It was fun while it last.
Anthony's filled me on what's happening. Nothing to do with FOIA, Some commenters have correctly guessed (but not saying which ones.)
Jul 28, 2012 at 2:01 PM Steve McIntyre
======================
That really narrows it down. Speculation was all over the place. Was it the aliens in his back yard?
I thought initially that it was a Nobel Prize - as someone else mentioned. Then I thought that he might have been awarded an Honorary Doctorate but I doubt that that would be big enough news?
I now think that someone has bought WUWT...
Most likely a BEST spoiler. I am hoping for a WATT-TEMP temperature reconstruction that shits on Muller,
http://www.populartechnology.net/2012/06/truth-about-richard-muller.html
Jul 28, 2012 at 2:01 PM | Steve McIntyre
So Mann's new book is being released: "I was once a True Believer Denouncing Denialist Deniers of the Truth, but Now I've Seen The Writing is on The Wall"
I think that I know what is the secret project. It's related to Watts, Heartland, as well as NOAA, see:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/07/anthony-watts-major-announcement-what.html?m=1
Watts has defected -That's the news.
I thought initially that it was a Nobel Prize - as someone else mentioned. Then I thought that he might have been awarded an Honorary Doctorate but I doubt that that would be big enough news? ....
Jul 28, 2012 at 3:40 PM Jimmy Haigh
====================
That is one I could support. Maybe not in speculation but in reality.
I bet it turns out to be nowhere near as exciting as it has been hyped up to be. Won't be holding my breath.
Steve McIntye : is it worth the wait ?
Jul 28, 2012 at 2:11 PM | macumazan
There were no passwords on CG1/2, CG2 contained a zip file of further emails which was protected by (what looked to me like) a very strong password.
The wonderful thing about speculation is it makes so much more seem possible.
Unencumbered by knowning facts, the mind can run free to consider all sorts of possibilities it wouldn't normally entertain.
Or as some might put it, it doesn't let the facts get in they way of a good story.
I was speculating the same thing as Lubos. If he has been working on a project that could shut down any announcement Muller has planned this would be the time and launching a special website to do this would make sense. Releasing "WATTEMP" would be worth the wait.
Pielke Jr claims on twitter to know what's up, and it's very unexciting.
AW's back yard should now be referred to as Area 53, he has got aliens in there but the feds are "leaning" on him and forcing him to make up a boring story to cover it all up. Never did like the Feds -.-
"given the care with which "FOIA" limited the first two releases..."
You mean...
"given the care with which "FOIA" cherry picked the first two releases"
...surely?
Through scientific testing Anthony just discovered what was causing unsustainable increase in heat in modern times. Too much Viagra and will take him a couple of days for the heat to dissipate. He will announce Sunday that he is sending a bottle to Trenberth to solve his missing heat issue.
Perhaps this is controversial and the observations smoothed out the wrinkles in the this unprecedented and sudden rise. It's much bigger than we thought.
Forget the CO2 and give me more Viagra!
J Bowers
Are you this J Bowers:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2001/may/02/guardiansocietysupplement6
Earth First being one of G Monbiots previous causes..
http://www.unltd.org.uk/directory_detail.php?ID=936
It's too much of a coincidence that the BEST rumors are surfacing just when Anthony is planning an "unprecedented" development.
I'd speculate that Anthony has enough surface station data to show that a 1.5C increase over 250 years is readily explained by the underlying trend from pre-industrial time to present, plus UHI from 1950 to present, plus a small increase for GHG forcing from 1975 to present.
The bottom line will be that we won't argue with BEST data, but there's ample evidence for a natural trend that's been relatively stable for a long time, and anthropogenic factors that have added perhaps 0.5C of warming, of which GHG forcing accounts for half (0.25C).
Pardon the expression, but I'm expecting something anticlimactic that won't sway warmists in the least.
Man, this is driving me nuts! Given the nature of WUWT with a constant flow of scientific news, new measurements, new finds, new papers and other marvellous (and sometimes scary) revelations, what could possibly count as so monumental that it couldn't be handled like every other item of news?
Not social or political? Shoot, that rules out the CAGW scam entirely, and that's disappointing. However, Anthony sure knows how to capture attention and get us all excited. Can't wait to find out what this is about!
Ally E.
I see the lateness of the hour has caused you to make some mistakes: surely you meant to write:
"Mann is driving me nuts! Given the nature of......."
There is some sudden event occuring/about to occur, which Anthony is part of, or must respond to. It was unplanned. I think that rules out BEST as he was, to some extent, involved with it, even in the off-hand manner he was treated. So, he would have had warning (I presume). So I think it's not BEST, therefore I am mystified.
Nobel Peace Prize?
"Mann is driving me nuts." So true, Dung, so true... :)
Antony was called upon to review an important paper? He discovered something big a few days ago and is ironing it out under a deadline?
I don't know if Anthony is involved in his project on graphically displaying temperature data yet. If he is, maybe he came across some things that skeptics have yet to discover. Maybe is putting together his own data base. It would be "controversial and unprecedented" and global in nature.
In addition, with the BEST announcement coming on Monday he may be attempting to scoop them which is why he needed to push it hard at this moment in time.
Anyone notice how quiet Josh has been? Hummm ....
REP, mod @ WotsUp, claims it will not be vulkanic, but tectonic.
=====================
Logical deduction points to Anthony having been shown the BEST results and he is now engaged in analysis and comment. It fits with all the caveats including those from Steve Mac.
In a few hours we should know!