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Reader Comments (258)
Very interesting.
"Something's Happened"
An unexpected event which needs immediate attention and the site is going on standby. I think the suggestions of an email release of some kind seem to be the best match. Interesting times!
How about a different train of thought sinice we are all speculating.
We had a major solar event two weeks ago directed at the earth, an X class flare. This could have triggered a Forbush event which swept away GCR particles and there could have been a sudden decrease in cloudiness. This occurs within a week after the flare. It someone had been looking for this and had some time to plan they could have takent satellite measurements to confirm a suddent change in cloudiness. It would be an additional confirmation of Svensmark's GCR effect.
Speculation is all we have wrt Anthony's cryptic announcement about some special revelation coming at ~noon (PDT) on Sunday, July 29.
It could be the releaser(s) of CG1 and CG2 is/are going to self-reveal.
It could be that a major US scientist, who has been a long time biased advocate
supporting IPCC's CAGW, will reveal corruption.
It could be that there will be a tell all report by an AR5 whistleblower about IPCC process manipulation and gatekeeping.
It could be related to the theme of the book 'State of Fear' by the late Michael Crichton.
It could be that a prominent skeptic has been appointed to an important position to replace a suddenly disgraced CAGWist.
It could be a prominent editor by a top level journal will report on outside corruption attempts on the journals processes by CAGWist climate scientists.
It could be . . .
John
Just for anyone else who wants to review and recall some of this context for WUWT, for Anthony to say "unprecedented" and of "global" interest it's got to be something that either surpasses or at least is uniquely important compared to any of this (now that is quite a threshold to meet with all interested media invited to check in on Sunday):
Nov. 2009 Climategate-1
WUWT Climategate threads
Climategate 2.0
Whether or not it stems from FOIA or Climategate, it's got to be a really big deal or Anthony would never have posted the kind of notice that is on WUWT. He's been around journalists more than just about any of us and is not interested in burning all his bridges.
Ahhh..just when I am going on vacation...and no, the missus won't let me cancel.
Jul 27, 2012 at 6:26 PM | Susan C.
Thanks for pointing out your new blog. It looks great to me and I hope it is a big success!
The use of 'unprecedented' could be ironical, given recent posts
Remember everyone. Back in CG1 Anthony didn't stop posting on the site, nor did he make any announcement of what was to come; he just dropped it on us all once he knew its validity.
This is something different, and it's a timed event. He couldn't be away for it, and it couldn't happen later, so keep in mind that whatever the nature of this is, it had to be in this time frame.
The fact all posting is stopping is most interesting. Efforts therein are being redirected from watching and moderating the site into something else. Not even guest posts.
As we know, Anthony does not like the word unprecedented, and rarely uses it. For something to be of global and media interest, and unprecedented in his view, leaves the nature of it different from what we've previously seen.
This is my speculation on the matter. Maybe aliens landed in his yard, that would fit such a category of events. Keep in mind the normal sort of postings and news articles that go on at WUWT, and one will see most of the speculation so far would fit just a normal daily news item. This is something else, but what, is hard to say. Bigger than Climategate, in Anthony's view, is what it seems to be.
My guess is the source of death threats to AW have been confirmed to be coming directly from prominent scientists.
CG3 is the obvious but Anthony’s language does feel like it’s more – maybe FOIA held juicy stuff back?
Alternate possibilities-
A new institution has been visited by the email liberation fairy.
A prominent group of reputable climate scientists have got fed up with the IPCC and people like Al Gore, Hansen and Mann speaking for them and are proposing a fresh start with sceptics involved.
What would be interesting is how many other prominent sceptics go AWOL this weekend.
John Whitman: Okay, you've changed my mind with "It could be the releaser(s) of CG1 and CG2 is/are going to self-reveal."
It could be about CG, if not CGIII. That's one I haven't considered, and given that the investigation is now closed and he/she/they might conceivably be free of legal liability, that could be it. But then I think, wouldn't they still be liable for civil damages against those whose personal emails were leaked?
To add to list of possibilities;
Anthony is going back to the mother ship?
Awarded Noble prize?
Is Gavin Schmidt in disguise?
Taking Pachauris job?
Ged
Excellent points, I don't want to hold false hopes but given Anthony and WUWT's track record through many other events including CG1 and CG2, it seems like this has got to be bigger or somehow truly extraordinary. He did not proceed this way for the original CG.
It's urgent and yet he can shape its release to 48 hours ahead on a Sunday.... and there was the other cryptic post a week ago that he would be very busy (this past week) on a big project and not posting much. Could suggest he's been absorbing, reviewing, and/or verifying major new information. Ah mysteries, well in 48 hours we hope all will be revealed.
TinyCO2: yeah, I'm hoping for something dramatic from a US institution related to Mann or Real Climate team... but it can't be mere "inside baseball" or Anthony knows the media would burn him for what he's posted now. It's got to be sooo much bigger than just scientist vs. scientist or skeptics vs. Mann, I would think. One hopes....
"broad global interest due to its controversial and unprecedented nature"
There is no guarantee it is related to climate. I doubt it would be Climategate 3 as it would not fit Anthony's description. Release of any of Mann's emails either from the Tim Ball or ATI hearings would be a matter for the courts before release.
Perhaps Peter Muller has used string theory to detect the CAGW signature in the instrumental temperature data.
Perhaps Kevin Trenbreth has sought help and now has seen the light.
Perhaps Al Gore has been dieting.
We will find out on Sunday
My guesses:
* legal action against WUWT from an "interesting" source
* Greenpeace/IPCC/watermelon espionage against WUWT
* A revelation from an IPCC insider
* or, as we all hope, CGIII
Whatever it is it must be related to his "important project" which came to light a few days ago, and he's been doing his due diligence. But why the exact timescale? Why a Sunday night?
'something has happened'
A miracle?
In a perfect world it would be emails showing direct collusion between politicos and scientists to create the CAGW scare and manipulate weather databases. Now that would be something
While up on the roof mounting his solar display, Anthony stumbled over a couple of stone tablets. They're heavy, so it's taking him awhile to get them down the ladder.
===============================
Dropping everything so as to meet (apparently) a strict deadline seems to smack of something way out of the ordinary. Maybe something with heavy political overtones that is going to break soon anyway?
Alternatively - maybe somebody has decoded the lost diaries of Leonardo Da Vinci - and it turns out he invented the thermometer and has accurate readings for the MWP.....
My first reading had me thinking that he has sold WUWT. Further thought made me realize that such an announcement could be made at a time of his choosing, causing me to discount that line of thinking.
With the release of CGII, and the password protected zip file with thousands more emails, the way I though I would do it is to have multiple releases, each including a subsequently smaller zip file to be fed out at a later time, each harder for the team to take. He describes it as an "event". The release of the next password could certainly qualify.
Another question is "Why wait?" Waiting would only work if there is a small, close knit group who know what is coming. Otherwise you risk a leak. Has FOI settled on Anthony as the go to guy?
"Unpresidented", that threw up an immediate flag. I don't think it would be used tongue in cheek, as presented, that would let a lot of people down.
Of course, it would fit if Kenji is having puppies!
I just would like to confirm one thing.
WUWT has NOT been hacked, ie Anthony locked out and fake article put up,
I repeat this has NOT happened
So, when it is described as 'global' significance, heads up to the media, from someone as media aware as Anthony, it should be very very very interesting.
And I'm gong to be at (kids) great grandmas birthday party ! :(
My guess would be a team member defection, with supporting documentation that needs analysis.
... or Paul Nurse has helped Phil Jones install and open Excel...in an extraordinary triumph for British Science...
Is it just a mistake that Anthony said "noon PST" (and said it twice), because California is on PDT now.
Just an indication it could be hacked from someone in Britain where S is used for Summer time as opposed to S for Standard time (and D for Daylight Saving) in USA.
Though Barry Wood somehow says he confirms WUWT has not been hacked.
Beat you to it ZT ;)
See my cvomment Jul 27, 2012 at 6:36 PM
I, for one, hope it is NOT CG3, because with each release, the impact is less - no matter what is in the emails, to the mainstream it's just more of the same old 'discredited' stuff that has already been aired.
I don't believe FOIA would risk implicating Anthony in a possible crime by releasing stuff early to him.
So what else could it be?
Consider:
Not planned by him - or he wouldn't have to consider cancelling and then decide to cancel a vacation.
Whatever it is he must think is a game changer - he's stopped comments.
He's been tipped off, but he's only an observer like us.
He says it's unprecedented. Consider how much grief this word gives us. It's not used frivolously.
He's sure it will attract media attention. He's no media newbie, he knows they ignore us. Usually.
McIntyre has no idea what this about
re: Anthony's opening phrase "something's happened"
Phrase echoes a novel by Joseph Heller ("Something Happened") or a song by the Cranberries, but those are both irrelevant in content.
ok, probably too much to hope Anthony is evoking this song with its "something's happening here" but that would be a fun way to poke the hives of aging 60s folk everywhere (flip the meme from antiwar to anti-CAGW):
song, Buffalo Springfield (1967) called "For What It's Worth"
[sorry, Youtube places an ad first but it's only 15 sec]
"Something's Happening Here"
There's something happening here
what it is ain't exactly clear
there's a man with a gun over there
telling me I've got to beware
I think it's time we STOP
Children what's that sound
everybody look what's going down
Women's beach vollyball? - America v Argentina - if I had a TV, that's what I'd be watching ;)
Hah! I've got it! It's Harragate.....
From: Roger Harrabin
To: Richard Black
Subject: Global Warming
Wassup Rich! I agree that global warming's a load of cobblers but, hey, it keeps us in work, eh? I fancy a Hummer like yours, m8. Who gives a monkeys about - what's it called? - car b'nimshuns? Lol.
I can reveal that it's all a trick to distract people as I take over the world. Minions! You have two days to submit to your new Master!!
ps CG3, a few days after the investigation got closed down. Not unlikely.
Last week the UK police announced the end of their investigation into climategate and made some very misleading comments in their press release.
I would imagine that this pissed off the "hacker" known as "FOIA" bigtime.
I would suggest that the news is that Anthony has been sent the code to unzip the FOIA archive and to get the rest of the emails.
That would explain the delay - Anthony is busily looking to see what goodies are inside and preparing a very long blog post. Could be time for some more fun.
I also suspect that Anthony and maybe one or two others are the only ones with the password right now.
Jul 27, 2012 at 7:02 PM | TinyCO2 said,
“””Alternate possibilities-
A new institution has been visited by the email liberation fairy. “””
- - - - - - -
TinyCO2,
Yes, good point. It could be an email/info release from another institution unrelated to UEA/CRU.
John
Did Al Gore just reveal he is the Pied Piper and was taking the greens over the edge? And Mann just revealed he is "FOIA" and was in cahoots with big Al.
Maybe as Mules Allen said, (paraphrased here) "It was all a joke". ;-)
Maybe it has now been revealed that all the players of the "cause" only did it for our own good to show what a bunch of fools much of the general public, academics, MSM, and politicians are.
The posibilities are endless.
Anthony's posted some pics on Facebook
The last time Anthony had a major announcement was when he got together with Joe D'Aleo and released a report. The thing sort of fizzled out after that.
This time he's stopped the blog for it. Why?
One can be sure of one thing : this is NOT a news item. This is originating in-house. Popular and important though it may be, what in WUWT can be 'global' importance? I can only think of the temperature record and climate scientist emails.
....Who knows...
"Mules Allen"
Funny. Possibly inadvertent though it may be.
I bet someone on the Team is defecting.
I bet someone on the Team is defecting.
Jul 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM | 007
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
If so, the rest of the team will be defecating...
Fred -
suppose FOIA is a CRU employee, then the talk of a "sophisticated hack" would be galling. Maybe FOIA is stepping out of the shadows...
I think I'll go surfing instead.
http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2012/07/vvuwt-publication-suspended.html
Anyone want to make a list of probables. See John Whitman above
1) FOIA/RC/email liberation fairy related
2) Team defection/ defecation related (sic)
3) Michael Mann related (don't ask me, Mann likes to be at the centre of everything)
4) Anti-blogger attack related (like a SWAT team showing up at all WUWT team houses)
5) ...
...
If you held some important information, why flag it up and give potential enemies to get at you. If I was in this position the obvious thing would be to keep quiet and realease it suddenly. This is what happened with CG 1, as with McIntyre's famous quotation " A miracle has happened", miracles are in their nature unexpected. Conversely, to put this in the blogosphere bizarrely gives him some protection should anthing happen in the next few days- that thought would appear to come straight from the realms of fiction.
I quite agree Frederick, the timing of the Norfolk police information is of interest
They also stated that they were closing their enquiries and outlined the possible sources of the hacker
The "hacker" or "leeker" may now feel more secure particularly if the police are a long way from the truth.
That's it. I've decided what it is:
RC wants to 'come out'.
My first bet is on a new fraud. Second bet a total collapse of the IPCC.
The timing is awkward for me. BBC2 is showing Andorra versus Burkina Faso in the womens clay pigeon shooting. Decisions, decisions.
No idea about the scoop, but a little help with time zones:
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/city.html?n=217
I wonder if this is related to the cutoff date for AR5 papers on the 31st? Some blockbuster paper Watts et al are completing?
Anthony has uncovered Obama's Kenyan birth certificate and Anthony is running for president.
ooh, we're all missing the possible allusion of "Something's happened" (not saying it's the same or related source but still AW could be echoing this phrase):
"At 7.24 am Eastern (5.24 blog time), a comment by “RC” was placed at Climate Audit saying that “A miracle has happened” with a hyperlink under RC...."
It could be a different source (or it could be FOIA/RC again), but I wonder if Anthony was alluding to the "A miracle has happened"....
[cross post from CA] It has to be something big beyond WUWT interest. I don’t “know” a thing about what’s happening, but the extraordinary announcement which Anthony posted means he KNOWS this is really big and not just “inside baseball” for WUWT devotees. Anthony has been in and around the news media his whole career — he would not create this level of expectation just for an anticlimax that would burn his bridges with many media and blogger types.
Compare the following to everything that’s happened related to climate issues through the years, including all associated with CG1 and CG2, IPCC issues, public/political dimensions, etc., and I think this upcoming announcement on Sunday must be bigger than or at least different from what we’ve seen before:
1) “controversial and unprecedented nature”
2) “a major announcement that I’m sure will attract a broad global interest”
3) “Media outlets be sure to check in to WUWT on Sunday around 12PM PST and check your emails.”
4) suspending publishing on the site for two days (and AW’s post a week ago about working on a large and urgent project might be relevant?)
5) cancelling vacation plans – why does he feel he needs to be the Captain “on the bridge” when the site can be monitored from anywhere? Suggests he expects to be totally focused on the aftermath of the announcement, responding to media, etc.?
Whether or not it relates to Mr. FOIA or some other leaker/whistleblower, it’s got to be very newsworthy. If it’s not similar to CG1 in media impact Anthony risks a serious backlash.
Maybe the individual who released the emails is going to come forth. Isn't it approaching the 3 year limit on prosecution?