Bishop Hill Svensmark
May 10, 2011 Q2 Explain regime change. What was it? Metastable states change. Nobody knows why, but well described in literature.
Q1 Chris Hope Judge bus school. What predictions does HS make about ocean heat in next 10-15 years? A: Might see a cooling. If sun is going down, and temps rise then it's not the sun.
Solar effect appears to be large. If exclude solar or regime change, then it makes anthropogenic look much bigger. These effects are not well covered by climate models.
Can effect be seen in climate? Use ocean heat content. Forcings = volcanoes, gcr, anthropogenic and a regime change in 1977. Solar effect ~1Wm-2, compares well with Shaviv. If remove solar effect left with apparent rgime change in 1977. This can be seen in eg tropospheric temps.
Coronal mass ejections - decrease in gcrs at earth - forbush decrease. Is there an atmospheric response? Liquid water in clouds over oceans fall after forbush decrease. Ditto in low clouds etc. Aerosols ditto
Always lots of nucleation centres in atmosphere. Is this right?
Use trace gases in atmosph concentrations. Change amount of ionisation. See if you get more aerosol particles. SKY experiment.
Correlation between low clouds and GCRs - but need mechanism. Ions?
Discussion of LIA and solar. Solar irradiance too small to explain Need amplification mechanism - clouds.
Get correlations between eg stalagmite 18O and solar variability
One particle entering atmosphere generates shower of particles - incl ions which change chemistry
CRs accelerated by solar events - supernovae.
He's older than I thought.
Reader Comments (12)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/may/09/vince-cable-chris-huhne-carbon-emissions?intcmp=122
Money meets ideology.
Not so sure this 'Live Blogging' is working that well, Bish. I keep imagining what a video might look like...I've done some for TED. And edited the results. You know?
Gixxerboy
No live blogging = no information at BH = nothing to complain about in comments...
Better owt that nowt, as dear old grandma used to say.
Woohoo, the sun rises and the Brits get to work on policy.
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BH
That may in part be the result of being hit over the head with a rolled consensus for the last 20 years.
I knew about the CERN "CLOUD" experiment but I haven't heard about the "SKY" experiment. Whats the deal with SKY?
@BBD
You do make me laugh! Those two comments are worth a pint each.
Gixxerboy
Can I have that in writing...
Paul in Sweden:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Svensmark
http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/EGU2011-10920.pdf
Here is the abstract of Svensmark group extending their 2009 research, hopefully it would be published within several months.
EGU: The effect of coronal mass ejections on cloud microphysics (2011), Martin Bødker Enghoff, Jacob Svensmark, and Henrik Svensmark
An interesting research proposal for verification of Svensmark hypothesis:
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1103/1103.4877v1.pdf
Probing the Climatological Impact of a Cosmic Ray-Cloud Connection through Low-Frequency Radio Observations, Nathan Magee & Michael Kavic.
Anyone has comments on this?
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