Bishop Hill Ross Clark on winter resilience
Dec 30, 2010 Climate: Surface Climate: WG2 Ross Clark has an interesting article in the Express about planning for winter in the UK. While I'm unconvinced by his idea of using wholesale gas prices as a proxy for global temperature, some of his other points are much better. Take this for example:
So why is government policy so obsessed with the prospect of hotter summers and so complacent about that of cold winters? A fortune has been spent establishing a Committee on Climate Change which last September came up with its emergency plan for adapting to higher temperatures – by fixing shutters to British homes and planting trees in the streets so we can walk in the shade.
Yet planning for cold winters has been woefully deficient. An official report into transport failures last winter concluded that, beyond building a bigger stockpile of grit, we didn’t really need to do much to cope with cold winters because they would become much rarer in future. It has taken just five months to expose the folly of basing transport policy on predictions for climate change.
Reader Comments (42)
I have recently been looking at the Devon County Council Strategy Document of September 2005 entitled “A Warm Response - Our Climate Change Challenge” and the DCC “Submission to Winter Resilience Review 2010”. Devon has the greatest length of roads in England. The things DCC are doing to cope with a warming world are incredible; like “thinner layers in road construction”. These will make coping with winter weather far worse. In addition, DCC has “carefully managed a reduction in winter resources over the past 18 years, responding to ongoing benign conditions”. One problem is that, with the Met Office based at Exeter, everything is based on Met Office forecasts of milder, wetter winters and warmer drier summers.
I my case, I have been cut off by snow (I haven’t a 4x4) for a total of 20days so far this winter, it will be 6 weeks since my bin was emptied (assuming it gets emptied tomorrow) and all DCC does in my case is to leave two bags of salt at the side of the lane (over a mile in length) for residents to use.
Needless I am composing a long letter to send to DCC, but I know it won’t do any good as they are committed to the Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change.
It's just mass denial, isn't it? They have been told by "scientists", "climate" organisations and the government to prepare for catastrophic global warming and all that goes with it, whilst choosing to wear blinkers in terms of observed trends. I'm sure they think it's not really cold, and that the freezing winter temperatures will quickly go away, and we'll be left with parched, baking hot summers, with the odd hurricane and monumental flood striking the UK because of AGW. This is what they're programmed to think. I wonder how many cold winters it will take to make them realise that they (and everyone else who has fallen for this) have been "had"?
There'll be no climb down, they'll continue to say white is black, cold is warm, and CO2 is a demon gas. The vehemence will just slowly subside, and the protagonists will quietly retire to their globally-warm various paradises, we'll foot the bill, and prosecutions there will be none.
Common Purpose you see, it all fits into the creeping, insidious plan. How very DARE a savvy public question the underlying ideologies? How very DARE they...
What we actually need is a run of mediocre summers, similar to (my recollection of) the middle to late 50s/early 60s.
Everyone knows winter is cold and, counter-intuitive as it may seem, a seductively appealing argument can be made for the case that freak weather such as the northern hemisphere is experiencing and experienced last winter is a result of the sort of climate disruption that they would like us to believe is happening.
Summer, on the other hand, is supposed to be warm, and getting warmer they say. A few crap summers will do more to put that argument to bed than all the cold winters combined.
@Sam the Skeptic - AGW is non-falsifiable. If its warm, wet, cold or dry then its obviously AGW and was predicted, so dare you deny it!
Heads they win, tails we lose.
Interesting that on one hand we've got the Committee on Climate Change taking expert advice and concluding that warmer winters will become more common whereas we now seem to have experts saying that global warming will cause colder winters and more snow.
Hard to know who to believe - these experts seem to be as changeable as the weather, which somehow seems appropriate.
Does anyone know which experts the committee spoke to when forming their opinion?
Sam the Skeptic
What you are trying to say, or hinting at, I presume, is that they are going to need to be more "inventive" with the Raw Temperatures and how they manage them?
Well, I've been "RAW" cold for most of December and I know where my vote on AGW goes.
Happy new year Bishop and all of the contributors.
Peter Walsh
Phillip, good luck with your bags of salt! And better luck with your letter to DCC. A snowball in Hell has a better chance than most letters to any Government Department or County Council. They all have special departments occupied solely with replies to disgruntled rate-payers and tax payers. And the replies miss the points raised, ignore any questions you ask, and just leave you more frustrated than before.
Natsman, just go into a dark room and lie down for a while. Relax, relax, relax.......
2007 - Prof Tim Flannery Australia's leading
climatologister paleontologist in New Scientist -2010 December - Queensland is experiencing floods of almost biblical proportions. The Bureau of Met has severe flood warnings for rivers over an area the size of France and Germany combined. The $1.5 billion desalination plant has been mothballed (yes, the idiot politicians believed him and built the effing thing). All dams are at 100% or over and Brisbane has enough water for 10 years even if it doesn't rain another drop during the period.
So as people were watching their refrigerators float out their windows, what do we get from Margareta Wahlström the United Nations special representative for disaster risk reduction? I bet she was busting an arse valve to say “it”, to say Climate ch..cha.. or Climate dis..disru... But thankfully she refrained and put it a much more refined manner -
Thanks for that Margareta. Hope you're comfortable in Geneva.
Peter Walsh
I have a fat file full of responses fom various bureaucracies side-stepping the issues and questions I raise. It's funny how bureaucrats, who have never produced anything or done anything constructive in their lives, know what is best for us tax-payers who have worked hard to keep them in luxury.
Still you have to do your best and keep hammering away with the truth.
looking at the jets, we're in for another Arctic blast about Wed 5th (UK).
Phillip Bratby - suggest you highlight to Devon CC and LA partners the possibilities for adding snow blades to refuse trucks. Dennis offer this as a conversion and it is used in New York. Flexible, low capital standby solution IMO:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psbuM1Lf40Q
Also suggest you encourage them to seek short term flexible contracts with farmers to clear certain key rural routes. There are demountable flatbed truck "bodies" which could be used as grit spreaders and farmers often have the space to keep distributed grit stockpiles close to lanes.
Little money 4x4 - buy one and keep the battery indoors until winter?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJwoamu361o&feature=related
Restoration project up on ebay for £200 at the mo. If you want new, the MarkII does ok as well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAg4DdXAp7Y
FarleyR/BrianMcL - quite. It would be good to have a simple statement from the Committee on Climate Change stating what would run contrary to the theory. As a public body committed to transparency I am sure they would be able to provide this by return:
http://www.theccc.org.uk/about-the-ccc/transparency
The BBC on "The World Tonight" compared the recent American snowstorm with the film "The Day after Tomorrow" and went on to suggest that there was serious evidence that global warming could result in excessive cold. This idea depends on the slowing Gulf Stream theory which has been shown by 6 years of research to be false. The myth is now more powerful than the facts.
I am now beginning to think that no succession of bad winters, no conceivable scientific study or crystal clear evidence of scientific manipulation will ever seriously dent belief in the myth.
Global warming is like the EU. No matter how often you vote against it in referenda it will just get up dust itself off and come back at you again. In Global warming as in the EU, the ruling classes including the BBC and everyone else within their bubble have made up their minds. They are blind to any facts and are determined to RULE.
Phillip Bratby: " It's funny how bureaucrats, who have never produced anything or done anything constructive in their lives, know what is best for us tax-payers who have worked hard to keep them in luxury."
Never having done anything constructive is exactly what makes it possible. Doing things with the inevitable result that sometimes what you planned and expected isn't what happens tends to reduce insufferable self-confidence. Obviously, if you never do anything, you'll never find yourself caught up in a blunder.
GrantB, IIRC Tim Flannery said that had Perth not built a desalination plant it would have run out of water. I am not sure if he is correct on that one. He has obviously been proven wrong about both Brisbane and Sydney desalination plants. I don't know what the situation is in Melbourne and Adelaide.
Although I still think desalination plants would be necessary in the future, that would be because of population increase, not climate change. With no less than a billion dollar price tag for each, those desalination plants have truly been waste of resources.
Phillip
J Ferguson got in before me.
Comment seconded.
Peter
sHx - Adelaide gets between 40 and 90% of its water from the Murray, depending on the dryness of the summer. The Murray is currently the highest it has been for many years due to recent floods (not the current ones) in Qld and NSW. Melbourne capacity is at 53% which is higher than in 2008 and 2009. Sydney is high at 72%. Brisbane is 100+%. Perth is the lowest at 31% and gets 15 to 20% from desalination, the rest from dams and groundwater. The Perth desalination plant was operational in 2006 and I don't know if it saved Perth from running out of water. Perth is dry and started limited water restrictions in 1977.
There is a case for desalination in Perth especially as it dry and is growing fast due to the mining boom. However, Flannery's New Scientist article was about Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide. It was alarmist and now proven to be alarmist. Unfortunately it has cost the taxpayers a lot of wasted money in the meantime.
Do you fellows know what voting is? You only seem to know what moaning is.
My version of winter resilience was to buy a 4x4 Freelander with a handy, selectable snow and ice setting on the terrain control knob. It will also do muddy tracks or soft sand or normal road settings according to your needs. It has been invaluable this past month.
Phillip Bratby, and others who feed birds in their gardens.
And for those who might like to do this. The recent big Freeze has had a devastating affect on our wild bird population. They have been flocking to gardens where bird feeders are positioned for them and could I suggest that as many of you as possible start up a feeding regime. I started up wirh a couple of feeders years ago. 1 was a peanut feeder and the other a sunflower seed feeder. Now, I have 2 seed feeders, 3 peanut feeders and 2 suet (or fat) ball feeders. These fat balls can be hung from a small Terracotta bell to ensure that the bigger birds don't raid them. When it is really cold, these fat balls tend to freeze and the birds can't break into them. So I place them on the ground, and gently hit them with a hammer until they split in 2/3 large lumps. If you hit them too hard, they will break into little bits which may fall through the plastic net they come in.
In recent weeks, I have done the same with the peanuts. Just break the peanuts (hammer again) into smaller bits to assist the birds. Makes their life easy. I have been rewarded for my efforts with lots of bird poo all over the place, butwhat the hell, it's a nice thing to do and you get lots of colourful birds around.
List; coal, blue and great tit; Goldfinch, greenfinch, chaffinch and I have also had a Brambling in this past week. You may also get Redpoll and Siskin, both nice small finches.
Also, your garden sparrows will love you and they are often accompanied by a Dunnock or two. You will have a resident Robin, if you don't already have one and I also have a single greywagtail each day. I have also had 3 yellowhammer, a fieldfare which is a large thrush with a blue-grey neck.
I have had a male blackcap also, but it moved on, which is probably just as wellas they are garden bullies and chase all the others away.
I have 9 shrubs cotoneaster and pyrocanta) with berries on them also which is good... and not so good as you can get (I have) a resident Mistle Trush. Talk about garden bullies. This chases off blackbirds and other thrushes and the robin, but seems to ignore the finches etc. I presume this happens because the finches etc don't compete for the same food.
Finally, I also bought a small container of meal worms which is for the robin. I put a small handful on a windowsill every day and the robin loves them.
There can be good things out of this awful climate we are afflicted with at the moment.
Go For IT!
Peter Walsh
Dr. Bratby, perhaps you should refer Devon County Council to Joe Bastardi's video page. He appears to know what he's talking about, and has the humilty to admit when he's wrong, whilst at the same time encouraging others to not necessarily take his word for it, but to research the data themselves - the evidence of likely cooling is there for all to see, should they choose to take off their blinkers and look for themselves, rather than swallow the warmists' stance hook, line and sinker...
Frosty
looking at the jets, we're in for another Arctic blast about Wed 5th (UK).
Brought to you by your friends in NYC. And since I am currently in California, I don't need foxes coming to the houses to tell me you have another cold snap after that coming. Since what starts in California usually makes it to Europe in ten or so days, all I have to do is look at my outdoor thermometer -- it's 25 F. Normally 50F. And we just had a hellva snow storm, so Phillip, better grab what wood for the fire you can, because you have more global warming coming.
And sHx no Irish magic or luck on this prediction. I'm just looking out my window. :)
George
"Do you fellows know what voting is?"
We do, but the problem is finding a candidate who doesn't fall for AGW, and is reasonably lucid about everything else.
"another Arctic blast"
The R4 forecast earlier this afternoon included what may turn out to be a Michael Fish moment, when the presenter admitted that more cold weather was on the way and with it the possibility of snow, but that it "would not be anything like that experienced earlier this month".
I'm more included to believe Piers Corbyn, who in November predicted lots more Global Warming™ in the new year...
Peter Walsh
We treasure our garden birds, too, and I am constantly amazed how such little, relatively uninsulated, creatures survive in the open. I put out drinking water for them, too, but keeping it liquid is a problem. Any ideas? I'm tempted to put a 40W bulb in the birdhouse...
Here's a little gem for you.
I queried the output from UK wind farms with our beloved Department of Energy and Climate Change (I know - that's what its called) - at a time - like at the time of writing - when the 'neta' tables show that wind is contributing a massive 0.1% to our electrcity generating capacity. I got a long response from the Department - in which the writer implied that the National Grid people didn't include all wind farms..
Funny that - because the total (including coal, gas, nuclear etc) came to 100%...
Needless to say, the writer was very keen to stress how 'CO2-free' wind generation was..
Needless to say, the writer was very keen to stress how 'CO2-free' wind generation was..
And Wind Free too ;)
Peter Walsh:
The RSPB is another QUANGO with whom I have arguments. I tell them their climate change policy is harming their attempts to persuade people like me to feed the birds. Being in ever deeper fuel poverty means less money for bird food. The RSPB loves wind turbines.
Breath of fresh air:
I have many letters from DECC who deny that wind turbines need backup which would cause increased CO2 emissions. It is impossible to get any logical facts through to the DECC bureaucrats.
David:
The NETA figures only include about half the installed turbines, those whose output is monitored on-line.
Being a little lazy when it comes to gardening, we'd brushed the windfall apples from our neighbours tree off the lawn, but left them on the open soil to the side. During the snow, and especially now it's melting, the rotting apples have been a very big hit with all the birds, especially the blackbirds. I just hope we're not responsible for inflicting the avian equivalent of cider louts on the local bird population!
I remember reading somewhere that the Dept of Climate Change building in Whitehall was the same building used as the Ministry of Magic in the latest Harry Potter film. Seems appropriate.
James p. Phillip Bratby and Cumbrian Lad.
I have no easy solution to the water problem. when it isn't frezing, the little "shiiites" are filling it with little white drops.
RSPB there, Bird Watch Ireland here, all the same, totally devoted to AGW. Idiots, both of them.
Apples, I eat mine although now and then if I leave one too long the blackbirds get it.
So what, if they get a little bit "ar Meisce"? ---Don Pablo will understand that bit I imagine, eh Don?
Just keep up the good work lads.
Rgds
Peter
James P : I put out drinking water for them, too, but keeping it liquid is a problem. Any ideas? I'm tempted to put a 40W bulb in the birdhouse...
Although I haven't tried it, I think an aquarium heater would do the job. Make sure (for safety if it should get broken) to run it via an earth leakage circuit breaker.
I have a 200 W aquarium heater that heats my 2m long granite goldfish tank and helps keep it and its occupants from freezing solid in the face of Normandy's global warming.
Farley R:-" Heads they win, tails we lose." Story of my life!
Re Birds... If you have space for a leycesteria (pheasant berry) bullfinches go nuts for them. So do blackbirds who very quickly learn the stems won't take their weight but that they can jump and grab a berry or shake the branch to get a couple to fall out! I kid you not.
Hours of endless amusement.
BBC World Sce"Europe Today" program heard in Oz last nite included an item on renewable energy, beginning with, is the govt hyping renewables? thought it was going to expose the myths surrounding wind/solar, but nothing of the sort. it made no point that i could understand and seemed to just say wind and solar would replace fossil fuels, and at some point someone said the govt was not hyping anything. the most meaningless piece i've heard yet on BBC and out of place in the context of "europe today".
Cumbrian Lad,
You may indeed by encouraging birds to FWI, (fly whilst under the influence).
I live on an acerage just outside Calgary, Canada and every fall we find migratory birds flying into our house. This occurs after eating fermented berries from some of our saskatton bushes. The birds are clearly incapable of flying straight and inevitably several end up kiling themselves by impacting the house at full throttle.
RETEPHSLAW
So what, if they get a little bit "ar Meisce"?---Don Pablo will understand that bit I imagine, eh Don?
As a sometime seanchaí and writer of Irish fairy tales, I must admit that watching birds stagger about is nothing new, though I doubt 'tis due to them eat'n rotten fruit. Not at all! Like many others in the west, I long ago learned that 'tis important to leave out a jar of poitín for the wee folk every week, and certainly for every holiday and holy day. Many laugh at this precaution 'til they find their electric power mysteriously disconnected at the worst possible time.
Now so, Today there are a large number of people in Ireland who are discover'n that this weather is little more than a payback for ignoring the wee folk, 'tis. And 'tis well known the birds and wee folk do be in cahoots, they be. Indeed, I've seen the wee folk flying about on the back of crows and blackbirds, me very self, indeed. So 'tis very possible that what you see are actually birds who had a tipple of the poitín left out by those of us who know how to keep our power on. So I do be doubt'n if they do be eat'n rott'n apples when they can get the real stuff from from their little friends.
And sHx, 'tis sure that Micheal Gallagher do be talk'n with the wee folk, for they have the power to see the future weather, and they don't be need'n no fancy computer stuff to do it. So, I be sure he merely do be leav'n them a jar out on his rounds and they do be tell'n him what the weather will be. And so far, he be right on, so me guess is he do be giv'n them Bushnell's.
'Tis all very scientific like, for sure. More than count'n tree rings, to say the least. And it keeps the little folk all happy and content like.
And for those of you who laugh at me, I do be hop'n yer emergency generator is in good repair. The little folk do have no sense of humor, not at all.
@Don Pablo
Since what starts in California usually makes it to Europe in ten or so days..."
That's a long time for air mail to arrive. What is that Irish postman doing?
Happy New Year, everyone! Especially to Don Pablo, the only person whom I locked horns with, though I now suspect he was pulling my horns for comical effect. He got lucky! That Irish and his luck! :-D
The rainfall (and temperature) at Perth.
I quote myself -
Perth: There is no continuous record at Perth. Rainfall records from the Regional Office and Airport have been used with good overlap over 46 years. Rainfall was flat from 1876-1915, then declined steeply from 1916-1974, but much more slowly from 1975 onwards. Temperature at the Post Office declined from 1882 to 1941, but then rose slowly after the change to the airport (1941–2009), suggesting UHI contamination at the airport rather than CO2 as the most likely cause.
Help wanted:
A source for some detail of a memory I have of the UK or just England altering the requirement for household plumbing to be within the walls to allowing it to be installed outside the walls due to a trend of warmer winters?
Don Pablo
I was interested to hear about putting out poitin for the wee folk. In south west France it used to be the custom when tidying up the family graves at All Saints to put a bunch of crysanthemums in front of the headstone and a bottle of duty free marc behind it. The smile on the face of the local Gendarme the next day was coincidental.
Don Pablo
I believe every word you wrote above.
Wouldn't want to upset the "wee folk" at all at all at all.
I'd need a source for poitín though..!
Peter
sHx
Happy New Year, everyone! Especially to Don Pablo, the only person whom I locked horns with, though I now suspect he was pulling my horns for comical effect. He got lucky! That Irish and his luck! :-D
Not lucky, Irish!. I have the very distinct advantage of having kissed the Blarney Stone not once, but twice! And I hope you all realized that my true point is whether it is an Irish postman or Irish Leprechaun predicting the weather, the result is still vastly superior to the 'scientific' occult mumbo-jumbo of the Met, IPCC and the rest. And if that is the case, just how bad is all that 'scientific' clap-trap? Obviously, both the Irish postman and leprechaun are far more interested in the actual weather and not pushing for global redistribution of wealth. Thus their accuracy.
And to sHx who has sorta gotten it figured out: The other Irish on this blog know full well what I was doing. We have a game we play in Ireland called craic . It helps the time at the pub (or ePub in this case) go more pleasantly. 'Tis all in good spirits and good fun, 'tis.
RETEPHSLAW
For those of you who weren't blessed with Irish parents, the Gaelic word, poitín means untaxed liquor. Since it is generally made at night, it gave rise in the US to the expression of "moonshine" and indeed most of the moonshiners were either of Irish or Irish Scots extraction. Moonshining is still practiced in Ireland, but only in the west and Donegal. 'Tis an old and honourable tradition, for sure.
As for RETEPHSLAW's dilemma, I did note that one can use Bushnell's as a suitable substitute. The little folk aren't paying for it anyhow, so really don't give a damn if you pay taxes or not, but will give you their damn if you don't leave out a jar of something drinkable. Since most moonshine in Ireland is still made from potatoes, a reasonable quality vodka can also be substituted.
Athbhliain faoi mhaise duit!
@Don Pablo
"I have the very distinct advantage of having kissed the Blarney Stone not once, but twice!"
All along I thought I was having fun at your expense.
And I lived to see the day. A statistician with a sense of humour!!!???
Gotta be the luck of the Irish :)
Best wishes.