Interestingly different perpectives on breaking news tonight.

Compare this:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/

What may be the science story of the century is breaking this evening, as heavyweight US solar physicists announce that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earth – far from facing a global warming problem – is actually headed into a mini Ice Age.

to this
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=33826

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."
"If we are right," Hill concluded, "this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate."

to this:
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=13838215

Scientists are predicting that the sun is heading into an unusual and extended super quiet mode. Around 2020, sunspots may disappear for years, maybe decades.

But scientists say it is nothing to worry about. The effects from a calmer sun are mostly good. There'd be fewer disruptions of satellites and power systems. And it might mean a little less increase in global warming.

I wonder whether the Government's Chief Scientific Advisor has any view on this?

Ah, floods. They created the Grand Canyon, you know!

Creationist science

And always thought that Geologists were a level-headed bunch...

Front page of today's Guardian Website.
"Why extreme weather is the new norm"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/13/extreme-weather-flooding-droughts-fires

It's a sign of Global Warming apparently.

No comments allowed below the piece.

matthu

From your Kikby piece:-

'The first findings, which Kirkby claims will reveal four or five important discoveries – will be published in the next two months.'

Roll on...

Sorry - the multiplier in my last post should probably have been 500 x and not 5 x since the Climate Act could cost as much as £400 billion. (And is that an underestimate? Quite likely, if we take into account every other large scale government project has overrun by a large margin.)

http://www.peterlilley.co.uk/article.aspx?id=10&ref=1421

With all the news about cameron spending an additional £800m more on overseas aid, here is a reminder what as little as €3m can fund (and if this pays off, it will probably be able to fund about 5 x as much overseas aid as Cameron has just committed ...)

http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/article/445/cern-cloud-experiment-studies-cosmic-climate-connection

While ALPHA and antimatter have been hitting the headlines, Kirkby's experiment – Cosmic Leaving Outdoor Droplets, or CLOUD – is no less intriguing. It is very different, focused on explaining not our existence but our climate. "We are trying to understand what the connection is – if any – between a cosmic ray going through the atmosphere and a change in clouds," Kirkby explains. A cosmic ray is a sub-atomic particle created by supernovae explosions somewhere in the Milky Way. He adds, perhaps stating the obvious, that "it is clearly not as simple as that". There is no doubt that CLOUD could have important ramifications. If some of the theories Kirkby and his team are testing are proven, they could suggest that the natural, rather than man-made, component of current climate change is greater than previously thought.

Outlining the background to the experiment, Kirkby says: "If we ignore the twentieth century when it was complicated by all the greenhouse gases and so on – when all climate changes were of course natural – there were these changes on hundred year or so timescales that do often seem to be associated with the sun. The amount of change in the climate is comparable to current warming and there is not a single known mechanism to explain them. So the cosmic ray connection with clouds is a candidate mechanism, and there are very few other possibilities."

Clouds have a cooling effect because they reflect some of the sun's radiation, so any long-term change in cloud cover would have a considerable impact on earth's climate. And there is disputed evidence that cloud cover has reduced in recent decades as global temperatures have risen. Meanwhile galactic cosmic rays create a weak charge in the atmosphere. The theory runs that these charged molecules, called ions, may play a role in the creation of aerosols – tiny particles in the air which cluster and seed cloud droplets. At the moment, Kirkby explains, aerosols are poorly understood, but without them there would be no clouds in the sky. They are also responsible for the light scattering which creates the haze we see when looking at distant mountains.

Satellite measurements show a correlation between the intensity of cosmic rays, which varies with the sunspot cycle, and the amount of cloud cover. It is complex science but the aim of CLOUD is to gain an understanding of this apparent connection. "As far as I'm concerned," Kirkby continues, "until this natural contribution to climate change is well understood there will be a big uncertainty as to what is going on with mankind's contribution."

The experiment itself is the first time a high-energy physics accelerator has been used to study atmospheric and climate science. "We are using a CERN beam as an adjustable source of cosmic rays," says Kirkby. "We have a chamber, three metres, in which we put minute amounts of these gases and ultra-pure air humidified with ultra-pure water. We go to extreme lengths to work on the purity of the chamber. The air we use is made synthetically from liquid nitrogen and liquid oxygen and we are building a synthetic water system to make the water even purer. That is one of the big reasons why it has been important to do the experiment at CERN. There is a lot of know-how in the technology."

One of the things that makes CLOUD exciting for Kirkby is that it feels like "a beautiful step back to an old style experiment where your results are right there in your notebook as you do your shift". The first findings, which Kirkby claims will reveal four or five important discoveries – will be published in the next two months. CLOUD is also small by CERN standards – "we don't have 2,000 physicists we have 50". What it does have common with other CERN projects is that it is an international effort. There are 15 institutes involved, each contributing financially through their national research councils. Most are European but there are groups from the US and Russia. There are also some graduate students funded by the European Union. "It is a top-notch team," according to Kirkby. "They are mostly aerosol and atmospheric scientists. There are also cosmic ray physicists and I'm a particle physicist. So it is an interdisciplinary team."

His enthusiasm for both the experiment and his place of work shines through. "I have been here more than 25 years," he says, "and I've yet to meet somebody who said they didn't like working at CERN. It has very much a campus atmosphere and people are genuinely excited about what they are doing. CERN is a network – once you need an expert in a particular area there will be somebody available. There is a lot of sharing and a tremendously supportive spirit among everybody.

"As regards CLOUD, it is a strange experiment for CERN. The people who work on it, including the technical people and engineers, really like it. One of the reasons for that is everyone can understand and relate to it. It is very important for current understanding of climate change to understand natural solar variability and to understand clouds better. One of the very attractive things about basic research is that it has intrinsic value – it is new knowledge that you pass on. Most of particle physics is fundamental knowledge and it may not have an immediate consequence for society. But CLOUD is directly trying to clarify some important uncertainties in current climate change thinking. I have had more than one engineer tell me – 'this is the first experiment I have ever worked on at CERN where I've told my wife or husband what I'm doing and they actually understand it.'"

The costs of the experiment stand at around €3m. "It is a significant amount of money," Kirkby accepts. "If you compare it with a typical atmospheric experiment it's definitely reasonably expensive. If you compare it with the LHC experiments then it's less than 1 per cent – though you should compare them with putting a man on the moon or something."

He goes on to explain some of the difficulties he faced winning the funding. "Although interdisciplinary experiments are very politically correct these days, in a world where there are limited resources – which is definitely the world we live in – the funding agencies are not at all used to funding across boundaries. Atmospheric funding agencies are not accustomed to paying for CERN experiments. By the same token CERN is not used to funding atmospheric experiments. When there are limited resources, and first class proposals are being turned down in your own subject it is very easy to put a line through the strange-looking proposal that doesn't fit in anywhere. That to some extent was a problem but finally the experiment is up and running." It is a notable personal achievement for Kirkby, then, that CLOUD has got so far. But how long will it go on?

In the future the chamber will be modified to create cloud droplets and ice particles themselves in order to study the direct effects on them of cosmic rays. One of Kirkby's colleagues on a previous project was asked how long that experiment would last and he always replied: "Five years unless somebody has a good idea." Kirkby is taking a similar line, but says: "I think it is going to take 10 years. We really want to settle this question. It could be that we find there are effects but they are not climatically significant. Or it could be that we find the whole thing is very important. But we want to settle it."

Other recent articles by John Vidal:

Second driest spring since 1910, says Met Office

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jun/02/more-sun-june-met-office

Climate change in tropics poses food threat to poor

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jun/03/climate-change-tropics-threat-food-poor

Crisis meeting is called as drought leaves crops dying in the fields

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/05/drought-farming-caroline-spelman-uk

Bonn climate talks: Developing nations question funding commitment

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/06/bonn-climate-funding-commitment

Has this guy been saving all his journalistic talent up for the week before the Bonn climate talks?
Or does he write this stuff on a daily basis?

If you have a strong stomach, read this;

Sober government scientists at the centre for hydrology and ecology are openly using words like "remarkable", "unprecedented" and "shocking" to describe the recent physical state of Britain this year, but the extremes we are experiencing in 2011 are nothing to the scale of what has been taking place elsewhere recently.
...
Wherever you look, the climate appears to be in overdrive, with stronger weather patterns gripping large areas for longer and events veering between extremes.
...
Sceptics argue that there have always been droughts and floods, freak weather, heatwaves and temperature extremes, but what concerns most climate scientists and observers is that the extreme weather events are occurring more frequently, their intensity is growing and the trends all suggest long-term change as greenhouse gases steadily build in the atmosphere.
...
New analysis of natural disasters in 140 countries shows that climate is becoming more extreme. Last month, Oxfam [ Oxfam? ] reported that while the number of "geo-physical" disasters – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – has remained more or less constant, those caused by flooding and storms have increased from around 133 a year in 1980s to more than 350 a year now.
...
"I think that global 'weirding' is the best way to describe what we're seeing. We are used to certain conditions and there's a lot going on these days that is not what we're used to, that is outside our current frame of reference," says climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University.
...
The WMO concludes, tentatively, that global weather will now return to something approaching normal. The trouble is, no one is too sure what normal is any more.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/13/extreme-weather-flooding-droughts-fires

Is there another climate conference in the imminent future?

Mike Jackson - indeed and Pump Aid is most effective at delivery ...

http://www.pumpaid.org/latest-news/times-christmas-appeal-pump-aid-2/

Behind the paywall...

Wind turbines pick up £2.6m for standing idle
An 'expensive mismatch' between supply and demand led to consumers paying for wind farms to be switched off
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/Environment/article646619.ece

(btw the £2.6m payment was for last month)

I wonder how this is audited? What processes are in place to stop the wind farmers cheating?