Unthreaded
- I don't think there is a contradiction
"they say 2013 was a one-off" ie "increased by around a third"
.." the growth continued in 2014" ..but not by as much as a third
ie cos under their view 2013/2014 was a super growth winter
"But they say 2013 was a one-off" yes they argue 2013 was a "unusually cool summer in 2013"
"climate change will continue to shrink the ice in the decades ahead." So they are saying that can predict the overall decade trend, but they can't predict anomalies like individual year.
..Except can they ? or is this the usual certainty beyond the evidence ?
You only have to look at the failure of the Antarctic ice to shrink in decade trend terms.
stewgreen
CD: "Do they even realise they're doing it?" I don't believe that they realise that they contradict themselves in the same article, let alone between articles separated by days, weeks, or years. They have to get the message out at all cost. Nothing else matters - after all, when you work for the BBC you get paid regardless of the sense you make; and nobody in the BBC does any diligence.
Phillip Bratby
tomo & Philip Bratby; re. cognitive dissonance. Spot the contradiction in the BBC article:-
"The volume of Arctic sea ice increased by around a third after an unusually cool summer in 2013.
Researchers say the growth continued in 2014 and more than compensated for losses recorded in the three previous years."
Followed just one line later by:
"But they say 2013 was a one-off and that climate change will continue to shrink the ice in the decades ahead."
Do they even realise they're doing it?
CD
Phillip Bratby
I didn't check the provenance... PhD ? catapulted to national prominence at a tender age then....
Next week maybe we'll lucky enough to have Matt interviewing selected junior school children about extreme weather and how the new school solar panels have saved the planet and how it's naughty not to recycle.
tomo
stewgreen
includes : SUNDAY : HOW CAN WE PREDICT THE FUTURE OF OUR PLANET?
DR TAMSIN EDWARDS 11.15-12.15
this Fri/Sat/Sun Winchester Science Festival inc Tamsin I list more events here
stewgreen
tomo:P They are tying themselves in ever more complex knots. Cognitive dissonance must be a hard burden to carry. around. Despite the settled science, things are "more sensitive to changes than previously thought". Now how many times have we heard that? Mind you the lead author is only a PhD student at UCL, so she hasn't much history in the field.
Phillip Bratby
Arctic icecap increases ..... but it's shrinking really
The BBC's Matt McGrath brings us this startling insight / revelation :
when temperatures are cooler it leads to an increase in sea ice
The tone of the piece makes it look like Matt is angling for a transfer to CBeebies - pffff.....
tomo
clipe
CD -
The BBC article was wrong to write "Researchers say the growth continued in 2014." Per the paper's Table 1 -- see the link at the bottom of the article -- the fall ice volume (in 1000's of km^3) was 9.03, 7.86, 7.75, 10.94, 10.26 in 2010-2014 resp., omitting the error bars. While 2014's volume is well above the 2010-2012 average -- 25% higher, according to the article -- it is not as large as 2013's. So it's incorrect to say *growth continued"; only in 2013 did the year-on-year figure show an increase. [If you want to point out that the decrease from 2013 to 2014 is smaller than the error estimate, fine, but one can hardly call it "growth".] That mis-statement makes a hash of the "one anomalous year" quotation.
The paper's abstract includes the additional observation, "In contrast, springtime Arctic sea ice volume has remained stable." Odd that it doesn't rate a mention by Mr. Mcgrath.