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Jonathan Jones, Jul 2, 2012 at 8:18 AM

Having spoken at all the Devon meetings for the Bishop's proposals and having given evidence at the public inquiry which Ricky Knight has been attending, I can assure you that his statement will not have been misquoted. The Inspector has not been impressed by his climate change nonsense.

Jul 2, 2012 at 10:48 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhillip Bratby

Here was the Apr-May-June Met office forecast:

The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period.

The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000
climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

And here, with the benefit of how badly wrong they were for the previous quarter, is the Met office's forecast for Jul-Aug-Sep:

For UK-averaged rainfall, the predicted probabilities slightly favour above-normal rainfall during both July and the July-August-September period, although the spread of possible outcomes is large. Consequently, confidence in this prediction is not high, and there is still a significant probability of below-normal rainfall.

Recent wet weather, which has helped to improve groundwater resources in much of the south of the country, is likely to continue into the first part of July. Indeed the forecast for July includes a significant probability of the monthly accumulation being above normal.

The probability that UK precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is also around 20% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

That last paragraph is a stunner. Knowing what we do now, and with knowledge of all the huge increase in CO2 that we know there has been, and with all of the huge computing power at our disposal and all of the research we have undertaken, we are still unable to take any view that precipitation is going to be any different at all to what we have experienced over our 30-year base period.

Go figure.

Jul 2, 2012 at 10:18 AM | Registered Commentermatthu

Now we have Matt Ridley also homing in on the biasedness of the Met Office's longer range predictions

The Met Office’s track record of short-range (five-day) forecasting is, in my experience, very good and getting better, but its longer-range predictions have often been not just badly wrong, but consistently biased on the warm, dry side.

Can it be true that we have not only been subject to agenda driven research but also agenda driven forecasting?

As Matt Ridley points out:

Now look at the curriculum vitae of the chairman of the Met Office, Robert Napier. He is also chairman of the Green Fiscal Commission and the World Conservation Monitoring Centre, and has been a director of the Carbon Disclosure Project, the Alliance of Religions and Conservation and the Climate Group. He is so high up in the church of global warming, he is a carbon cardinal. I am sure he is a man of great integrity, but given this list you have to wonder if one of the organisations he chairs does not occasionally — and perhaps unconsciously — aim to please him with warm long-range forecasts.

Jul 2, 2012 at 9:52 AM | Registered Commentermatthu

The law of unintended consequences strikes again!

According to the Sun (link):

COAL has overtaken gas as the main method of keeping the UK’s lights on ...

Sir David King and the greens are not happy.

Yet compare the UK, where coal now provides over 40% of our energy, with the US, where it's only 30%. Why? Er ... because the US is exploiting shale gas. And we're not.

Jul 2, 2012 at 9:32 AM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

From the Telegraph "An unholy gale brewing up in Devon" comes the amazing quote (emphasis added)

says local Green Party activist Ricky Knight..."What I do ask, though, is, if we all keep saying no to wind farms, what are we going to do about seven-metre rises in sea level over the next 20 years?"

He may have been misquoted of course.

Jul 2, 2012 at 8:18 AM | Registered CommenterJonathan Jones

Just one more thing about shale gas/fracking which does not seem to have got much publicity:

The single operational shale gas frack in the Cuadrilla area (Elswick) has been producing gas for almost 20 years and contributing 1 MW to the national grid. No water pollution and 2 reported minor tremors.

Jul 1, 2012 at 6:59 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Mike H

You are absolutely right mate and the government knows it as well. All the more frustrating when they use an out of date BGS to justify saying that we dont have much shale gas in the UK ^.^

Jul 1, 2012 at 6:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterDung

There is a BGS survey which shows all the different types of shale-type strata. They are extensive and some extend well offshore.
The BGS is in the process of revising and updating their estimates of UK shale reserves - there are strong rumours that the new figures will be very substantial.

Jul 1, 2012 at 5:48 PM | Unregistered CommenterMikeH

Zed and follow-up comments removed. Please DNFTT.

Jul 1, 2012 at 3:18 PM | Registered CommenterBishop Hill

UK Shale

When government talks about our shale gas reserves they only ever mention Cuadrilla; nothing else exists apparently.
The Bowland Basin shale play contains more than one license area, to the east and south east of Cuadrilla is an area licensed to Igas (Island Gas). To the south is an area licensed to Aurora Petroleum Ltd.
Igas recently speculated that their shale gas deposits could be on a par with Cuadrilla.
Aurora say that of the 2000 foot shale bed running through their area, 700 feet is oil bearing shale and the rest is gas. You have to wonder if this 700 foot oil bearing shale is also present in the Cuadrilla area but so far it has not been commented on.
The shale beds run right out under the Irish Sea and Aurora state that previously successful conventional oil wells drilled both onshore and in the Irish Sea were "supplied" by the oil shale beds below them.
Aurora are calling this oil bed "the mother load". Sounds good to me.
There are of course lots more license areas in the UK about which we know very little however "game changer" sounds a perfect description.

Jul 1, 2012 at 12:45 PM | Registered CommenterDung

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