Yeo fights for his right to trough

Tim Yeo, the Tory MP who runs the House of Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee, is all over the newspapers this morning, in an ongoing war of words between his committee and the Treasury, who seem to be trying to reduce the amount of money handed over to green energy projects, much to the distress of the MPs. See the FT here, the Telegraph here, and Roger Harrabin here.  Yeo was also on Radio Scotland this morning apparently.

Interestingly, only the Telegraph sees fit to mention Yeo's various interests in green energy businesses and his chairmanship of the Renewable Energy Association.

Drought in the Horn of Africa

Updated on Jul 22, 2012 by Bishop Hill

During our joint appearance on the Jeremy Vine show, George Monbiot said something that intrigued me, namely that there had been a decades long trend towards drought in the Horn of Africa.

This was interesting to me, as I'd heard this suggested before and had actually spent a short time trying to verify the claim about six months ago. However, I had been distracted and had never bottomed it out.

After hearing George make the claim again, I decided it was worth digging a bit further and this post is the result. In essence I found very little to back the claim. I think this may be because there are few, if any, weather stations in Somalia, at least.

Click to read more ...

A trickle of further information

My request for copies of UEA's correspondence with the Outside Organisation has been discussed here previously. While UEA have released a certain amount of correspondence, they have withheld parts of it, citing all manner of exemptions.

My appeal to the Information Commissioner has now had some effect, with UEA agreeing to release further documents, although there is still more that they are refusing to divulge. The disclosures can be seen in three PDF files, annexes 1, 2 and 4. I'm not sure what happened to Annex 3.

The contents are not of devastating interest, although there are a few redactions that are intriguing, in particular one in the middle of a paragraph discussing my submission to the SciTech inquiry.

Andrew Montford (Bishop Hill) submission states:

12 The disclosures reveal several instances of government funded scientists working with environmental pressure groups. In one case, Greenpeace activists are seen helping CRU scientists to draft a letter to the Times and in another working closely with the World Wildlife Fund to put pressure on governments regarding climate change.

RedactionRedactionRedaction

Montford's will be one of the submissions they are likely to pay attention to.

Rob W in the Courier

While I was away, there was a bit of a kerfuffle over the new paper by Esper et al. The authors claimed that Northern European temperatures were warmer than today in both the Medieval and Roman Warm Periods. Anthony reported the story at the time.

The kerfuffle came over subsequent newspaper claims that the paper disproved the AGW hypothesis (I haven't seen these claims myself, but no doubt they are out there). Readers may therefore be interested to see the response of Rob Wilson, one of the co-authors of the paper and an occasional commenter here, in his local newspaper, the Dundee Courier.

Some climate change sceptics have leapt on this as proof global warming does not exist, but Mr Wilson said no such conclusion could be drawn from a study which concentrated on one geographic area.

He said it has become ''expected'' people on both sides of the climate change argument will seize on certain parts of research to back up their own arguments, ignoring other data does not support their conclusions.

''It can come from both sides and I think there will be a few climatologists on the other side who will find issue with some of our findings,'' he said.

However, he made it clear the study does not disprove rising temperatures since the start of the 20th century are down to the actions of humankind.

I make a similar point myself in the Hockey Stick Illusion. Current temperatures can be entirely precedented and the AGW hypothesis could still be true. Equally, temperatures can be unprecedented and the hypothesis could be false.

That said, if temperatures do turn out to be nothing out of the ordinary (and I don't think we know either way yet), then it does rather reduce the cause for immediate alarm.

Interview with Julian Gregory

Leo Hickman has published the transcript of his interview with DCS Julian Gregory, the policeman who led the investigation into Climategate. There is much of interest, not least this bit about what led the police to believe that nobody internal was involved.

Norfolk Police gave a press conference yesterday in which it revealed some more details about the investigation. For example, DCS Gregory said that the hacker(s) had, whilst accessing the university's servers remotely via the internet, breached several passwords in order to gain access to the emails and other documents. He also said that officers had examined CCTV footage at CRU to investigate the possibility – subsequently ruled out - that a member of staff might have been involved.

This, I have to say, brought a smile to my face.

There was also this reference to Mosher:

Have you kept on top of all the internet speculation and commentary surrounding this case?

Firstly, you can't investigate what's said online. Secondly, you look at those blogs and most of it is speculative, uninformed and, occasionally, ridiculous.

But did you keep an eye on it in case someone came up with a possible lead or sensible theory, or did you see it as nonsense and a distraction?

The latter. I think it was Steven Mosher who said he knew who it was, or had a theory, at least. Maybe he does. Maybe he doesn't. Where does that take you? And is he likely to tell the police? The difference between the police and, say, journalists, is that we won't embark on a number of lines of enquiry because, ultimately, you can see that in terms of getting to where we need to get to - which is beyond reasonable doubt - it's not going to get you there. The fact that things are "interesting" is not always enough.

If I'm reading this correctly, the police didn't even ask Mosher about his ideas. Given that he has written a book about Climategate, this is rather surprising. I would have thought it was worth the effort of an email.

Politicians cause another food crisis

The drought in America has had predictable knock-on effects on expectations of this year's harvest. There is certainly a sense of panic in the FT's report (H/T RP Jr):

The world is facing a new food crisis as the worst US drought in more than 50 years pushes agricultural commodity prices to record highs.

Corn and soyabean prices surged to record highs on Thursday, surpassing the peaks of the 2007-08 crisis that sparked food riots in more than 30 countries. Wheat prices are not yet at record levels but have rallied more than 50 per cent in five weeks, exceeding prices reached in the wake of Russia’s 2010 export ban.

Click to read more ...

Operation Cabin Q&As

Norfolk Constabulary have published the Q&A from their press conference yesterday (H/T Anthony).

The following questions and answers are an abridged version of Norfolk Constabulary’s Operation Cabin media briefing held on Thursday 19 July 2012.

How do you know it was an external hack?

In outline terms, we know it came via the internet from a number of different IP addresses, in various countries, which may have been proxy servers. The attack was, first of all, into the web server (CRUweb8) in the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the UEA. From there, a link was established to a CRU back-up server (CRUback3).

Click to read more ...

More from Norfolk Constabulary

This is a briefing document that was issued to journalists at a press conference earlier today. It contains background information on the Climategate inquiry and the decision to close it down.

Operation Cabin

Background Information

Introduction

Operation Cabin is the name of Norfolk Constabulary’s investigation into the unauthorised data breach at the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in Norwich and the subsequent publication of some of this data on the internet.

The publication of the data in close proximity to the COP 15 and COP17 climate change conferences in Copenhagen and Durban appears to have been done in order to influence global debate around anthropogenic climate change.

Click to read more ...

Unequal and opposite reaction

A week ago, Simon Jenkins took a swipe at the Freedom of Information Act in the pages of the Guardian.

Blair made almost all public documents discoverable, down to the contents of every laptop, the first draft of every email, every text message, every scribbled note. It was, he now says, "utterly undermining of sensible government". Jack Straw and the former cabinet secretary, Lord (Gus) O'Donnell, agree with him. Total disclosure, they say, has damaged honest civil service advice and stifled confidential debate among ministers. Stupid amounts of official time and money are spent conserving archives and responding to FOI requests. There must be some limit.

The similarities to Paul Nurse's misrepresentation of the FOI Act are striking, and the result has been identical: a slapdown from the chairman of the Campaign for Freedom of Information, Maurice Frankel:

The act exempts information where disclosure is likely to be harmful and/or contrary to the public interest. It permits a ministerial veto over any order to disclose in the public interest. Some information is exempt regardless of harm or public interest.

Jenkins claims the level of disclosure extends to "even the most personal communication between individuals". It does not. Personal information, about family matters for example, is vigorously protected. But officials cannot circumvent FoI by discussing government business via personal email accounts.

Climategate police inquiry closes

This just in from Norfolk Constabulary (H/T Leo H)

Norfolk Constabulary has made the decision to formally close its investigation into the hacking of online data from the Climate Research Centre (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in Norwich.

The decision follows a comprehensive investigation by the force’s Major Investigation Team, supported by a number of national specialist services, and is informed by a statutory deadline on criminal proceedings.

While no criminal proceedings will be instigated, the investigation has concluded that the data breach was the result of a ‘sophisticated and carefully orchestrated attack on the CRU’s data files, carried out remotely via the internet’.

Senior Investigating Officer, Detective Chief Superintendant Julian Gregory, said: “Despite detailed and comprehensive enquiries, supported by experts in this field, the complex nature of this investigation means that we do not have a realistic prospect of identifying the offender or offenders and launching criminal proceedings within the time constraints imposed by law.

“The international dimension of investigating the World Wide Web especially has proved extremely challenging.

“However, as a result of our enquiries, we can say that the data breach was the result of a sophisticated and carefully orchestrated attack on the CRU’s data files, carried out remotely via the internet. The offenders used methods common in unlawful internet activity to obstruct enquiries.

“There is no evidence to suggest that anyone working at or associated with the University of East Anglia was involved in the crime.”

The security breach was reported to Norfolk Constabulary on 20 November 2009, following publication of CRU data on the internet from 17 November onwards.

An investigation was launched by the joint Norfolk and Suffolk Major Investigation Team, led by Det Chief Supt Gregory, with some support from the The Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, the National Domestic Extremism Team and the Police Central e-crime Unit, along with consultants in online security and investigation.

The investigation, code-named Operation Cabin, focused on unauthorised access to computer material, an offence under the Computer Misuse Act 1990, which has a three year limit on proceedings from the commission of the original offence. It has been concluded by Norfolk Constabulary, in consultation with The Met, that due to outstanding enquiries this is now an unrealistic prospect.

Norfolk Assistant Chief Constable Charlie Hall, Protective Services lead, said: “Online crime is a global issue. While law enforcement agencies continue to develop our response to emerging threats, it falls upon individuals and organisations to be alert to this and and take steps to mitigate risk as far as is practicable.”

One for the vine

I'm off to Edinburgh in a short while. I'm due to appear on the Jeremy Vine show (around 12:30). George Monbiot and I will be discussing the recent wet weather.

(I'm not sure how the invitation fits with the Jones report and its conclusions on sceptics appearing on the airwaves. No doubt outrage will ensue.)

Update on Jul 18, 2012 by Bishop Hill

The audio (for UK listeners) is here, from about 30 mins.

Extreme weather

An interesting article about the wet British summer comes to us from Michael Hanlon in the Mail.

Perhaps the most dramatic and visible impact of climate change to date has been the reduction in Arctic sea ice cover and, particularly, thickness, seen in the last 20 years or so. The ice grows back in winter of course but, the evidence suggests, each year (on average) perhaps a little thinner than before. This makes the North Atlantic a little warmer than otherwise, reducing the temperature gradient between Polar and Tropical air and hence taking some of the wind (literally) out of the jetstream’s sails.

So, the overall effect of global warming will be to make our summers cooler and damper. The trouble is, this contradicts what most of the computer models have been saying to date, namely that in Britain we can expect hotter, drier summers and milder, damper winters. I spoke to Kate Willett, a climate scientist at the Met Office who agrees that the picture is confusing. “Yes, this contradicts the model of wetter winters and drier summers,” she says. It is also true, she adds, that since 2007 Arctic sea ice levels have been exceptionally low but it is not true that the last five summers have been exceptionally bad – those of 2010 and 2011 were average or a little above average in terms of sunshine and temperature.

This is almost beyond parody, so I'm not even going to try.

Interestingly, Hanlon says that there is a consensus that weather will become more extreme in an warming world. Is this right?

Your life in their hands

The House of Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee began its inquiry into the economics of wind power last week, taking its first oral evidence. It was a fairly typical set of witnesses, with the panels constructed to ensure that the desired answer was received. The only dissenting voice among the nine witnesses was Gordon Hughes, author of the GWPF report on the same subject.

It is strangely compelling viewing, with something of the air of a disaster movie. The idea that UK energy policy is influenced by a forum like this is quite terrifying. It's interesting to see, however, how the tone of the inquiry moves from the platitudes of David Kennedy of the Climate Change Committee, to the zealotry of Robert Gross of Imperial, before everybody rather seems to give way to Hughes' authority.

Homogenisation is the root of all evil

Well, something like that anyway. Anthony Watts is reporting a presentation by Demetris Koutsoyiannis, which finds that many of the homegenisation adjustments applied to surface temperature data are ill-founded.

Homogenization practices used until today are mainly statistical, not well justified by experiments and are rarely supported by metadata. It can be argued that they often lead to false results: natural features of hydroclimatic time series are regarded [as] errors and are adjusted.

Mandarins flout the law

It seems that while Tony Blair was in power, a secret email system was put in place in Downing Street so as to avoid FOI laws. All manner of other breaches of FOI laws were also everyday occurrences.

Information commissioner Christopher Graham claimed secret documents were being destroyed and Whitehall officials were using private email addresses to evade scrutiny.

This is not much of a surprise to BH readers. It is also a commonplace here that the situation will not change until the law is amended to allow prosecutions of these breaches of the law - until the statute of limitations is extended the mandarins will continue to flout the law and to thumb their noses at the electorate.