Madhouse Mann - Josh 384

Michael Mann has a book out called "The Madhouse Effect' with cartoons by Tom Toles. 

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Bulldog Bob

To tell the truth, there has been very little that has piqued my interest in the climate scene since my long break began all those months ago.

But my goodness, David Rose's splash in the Mail on Sunday over the weekend was something else wasn't it? Those paragons of virtue at Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, overseen by our old friends Nick and Bob, have been, well, nicking other people's results and passing them off as their own, the better to fleece the taxpayer of a bob or two (or nine million).

That certainly made me sit up and take notice.

Here's Josh's take...

Stochastic Stern

You know all that money we have been spending on developing economic models of the effects of climate change? Well apparently it has mostly been wasted. At least that's the case according to Lord Stern, whose article in the sociology journal Nature says that we should be moving onto something more reliable.

Because the IAMs omit so many of the big risks, SCC estimates are often way too low. As a first step, the consequences being assessed should include the damages to human well-being and loss of life beyond simply reduced economic output. And the very large uncertainty, usually involving downward bias, in SCC estimates should always be made explicit...

A comprehensive review of the problems of using IAMs in climate economics called for the research community to develop a “third wave” of models. The authors identify various types of model that might offer advances. Two are: dynamic stochastic computable general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and agent-based models (ABMs).

It's also interesting to see stochastic modelling being touted in a week when climatologists have been outraged by a suggestion that such an approach might be useful in their own field. 

The perils of being a mouthpiece

One of the problems with being a PR guy for an environmentally minded billionaire is that you sometimes find yourself having to utter complete drivel in public fora. There has been a lovely example of this in recent weeks, when, in a letter to the FT, Lord Stern claimed that 7 million deaths each year were caused by pollution derived from fossil fuels. This was disputed by Matt Ridley, who pointed out in another letter that most of these deaths were actually caused by burning wood and dung.

According to the World Health Organisation, the majority of these estimated deaths (4.3m) are from indoor air pollution, and the vast majority of them are caused by cooking and heating with wood and dung.

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A Prime Review - Josh 343

Ruth Dixon's excellent book review of "Why are we waiting?" by Nicholas Stern is well worth reading. You can download a pdf version here.

As the cartoon notes, the question 'Why are we waiting?' has already been answered by David Cameron. But today we read that Naomi Klein disagrees with Stern - Naomi thinks the only solution is a 'public uprising' to end capitalism.

Something they might like to sort out before Paris, eh.

Cartoons by Josh

Quotes of the day

Today's words of wisdom come from Ruth Dixon's review of Lord Stern's latest opus.

Stern is...selective in his choice of data. He frequently ignores mainstream scientific evidence (such as that found in the authoritative reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) in favour of outlying estimates.

The type of small-scale solar PV [Stern] describes is a good way to supply electricity for lights, phone and internet access to remote communities, but it is fanciful to suppose that such systems can provide enough power for cooking.

Even in his own words, Stern makes clear that he does not view objectivity as an overriding concern.

Read the whole thing.

Stern words - Josh 341

Stern is Mr Flip Flop.

Cartoons by Josh

Turning our backs on the poor - Josh 325

It is extraordinary to think that Bjorn Lomborg first published The Sceptical Environmentalist in 1998 - that's as long as The Pause!

However there has been no pause in some people ignoring his message as we have, rather depressingly, read on this very blog over the weekend.

It is really simple: the money we spend on Climate Change mitigation can be better spent on health, education and cheap energy. Why is this hard to understand? Do they think climate science is done in a moral vacuum? Can they not see that divesting from fossil fuels hurts the poor the most?

Incredible.

Cartoons by Josh

Click the image for a larger version

A comfortable chat

Lord Stern was on the Today programme this morning, for a chat about his views on saving the planet. The rottweiler John Humphrys suddenly came over all lapdog.

Strictly for the dedicated.

Stern Today prog

Hardtalking with Stern

Nicholas Stern was on the BBC's Hardtalk show, being grilled by Zeinab Badawi about his recent report.

For a BBC journalist, Badawi did not too bad a job of taking potshots at Stern, with ammunition apparently sourced from Richard Tol. I was amused when she called Stern a "climate lobbyist", before correcting herself.

Stern himself was deeply unimpressive, with the mannerisms and delivery of a minor council official rather than a great academic sage and, as Pielke Jr notes on Twitter, constantly resorting to namedropping rather than rational argument.  I was struck also by his allegation that Tol builds his conclusions into his economic models. This struck me as quite a strong thing to say.

Diary date, millenarian edition

6:30 pm — 8:00 pm on Tuesday 28 October 2014 at The Royal Society, London

Join Sir Paul Nurse, President of the Royal Society and Lord Stern, President of the British Academy, as they discuss the new opportunities – and need – for collaboration between the traditional academic disciplines to respond to the big issues of our time, highlighting why the UK’s research base is such an important national asset.

Sir Paul Nurse has been President of the Royal Society since 2010. He was awarded the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine in 2001 and is also Chief Executive of The Francis Crick Institute.

Lord Nicholas Stern of Brentford became the 29th President of the British Academy in July 2013. He is IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government, and also Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Details here.

Lord Stern FRS

Updated on May 1, 2014 by Bishop Hill

Congratulations to Lord Stern, who has been elected a fellow of the Royal Society. According to the press release, this is:

...in recognition of his work challenging the world view on the economics of climate change and his distinguished career in mathematical economics with involvement in industry and in government.

I hear on the grapevine that the bigwigs at the Royal Society were a bit miffed by the suggestion in Nullius in Verba that the society was a political advocacy operation. The elevation of Stern - whose report on climate economics was criticised by the entirely non-sceptic economist William Nordhaus as "political in nature" and having "advocacy as its purpose" - is doing little to assuage my doubts.

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Stern's pecuniary diversion

The Danish newspaper Dagbladet Information has discovered that while Lord Stern was deputy chairman of the Global Green Growth Institute, a major contract was awarded to the Grantham Institute at LSE, which is of course also headed by Lord Stern too.

Apparently alarm bells were sounded by Danish civil servants at the time but you rather get the impression that their concerns were overridden. This seems to have captured the interest of experts in corruption:

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The Stern letter

Some months ago I asked the Treasury for copies of correspondence relating to the Stern Review in the year up to that paper's publication. I put in my request under EIR and was told, surprisingly (or perhaps not), that there was only a single document that could be construed as environmental information. After much to-ing and fro-ing they have decided to release this to me.

Here it is.

It's a letter from Stern to Gordon Brown sent shortly before the publication of the report and outlining Stern's ideas for possible policy initiatives that could follow the publication of the report. It's not desperately interesting. Nevertheless, while I find it hard to put a finger on the problem,  I don't get a warm feeling from what I see there.

Huhne mangles economics

Tim Worstall is quite magnificently rude about Chris Huhne's grasp of economics and his (ahem) forgetfulness about what Lord Stern actually said in his report.