Buy

Books
Click images for more details

Support

 

Twitter
Recent comments
Recent posts
Currently discussing
Links

A few sites I've stumbled across recently....

Powered by Squarespace
« Academic: let's try violence | Main | Old Reliable - Josh 357 »
Monday
Jan182016

Wam, bam

At the start of March, the University of Exeter is hosting an extreme weather day, as part of WAMfest, the festival of weather art and music. The festival programme can seen here, and the extreme weather event is described as follows:

What is happening to our weather? An entertaining and informative evening full of surprises with one of the country's leading science communicators, Helen Czerski and the Chief Scientist of the Met Office, Prof. Dame Julia Slingo OBE FRS. 

In the first half of the evening Helen Czerski and leading climate scientist, Dr. Peter Stott of the Met Office will embark on an exploration of extreme weather, including here in Devon, and how this fits into a pattern of changing climate. As they will discuss, there is so much more to climate change than global warming. Find out how the climate varies from a host of fascinating natural processes, and how science is making progress at helping all of us be more resilient to its vagaries.

After the interval, Helen is joined by Prof Dame Julia Slingo OBE FRS, Chief Scientist of the Met Office and other leading experts to explore with you, the audience, some of the intriguing questions raised earlier. Chaired by Prof. Paul Hardaker, Chief Executive of the Institute of Physics and with Prof. Peter Cox of the University of Exeter, our panel will invite your questions and take you on an entertaining journey through the science of weather and climate and what it means for you.

If anyone is going along, a report would be welcome.

PrintView Printer Friendly Version

Reader Comments (48)

"there is so much more to climate change than global warming"

Not according to the IPCC

"Find out how the climate varies from a host of fascinating natural processes"

Is this a resume of the multiple "causes" of the hiatus? Or perhaps the natural strategy of hedging your exposure to "adverse" changes in emerging data. It is unlike the met office to admit that the climate has "vagaries", I thought that only applied to weather.

Jan 18, 2016 at 2:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterDiogenese2

Will they be talking about damaging weather events that occurred before global warming was invented? There is so much in the historical record that is conveniently forgotten because it is not on YouTube, cinefilm footage, or even sepia tinted photographs. Everything is now Green tinted, and slanted too.

Jan 18, 2016 at 2:34 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

I doubt that they will approach it from the right angle, which is that the UK has one of the most benign and NON-extreme climates on the planet, thanks to our latitude and to copious amounts of water to regulate our air temperatures and to provide that wonderful thing called rain.

Jan 18, 2016 at 2:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterMikky

'As they will discuss, there is so much more to climate change than global warming.'

Yes, climate change includes wealth redistribution, global government, de-industrialization of the West, etc.

Jan 18, 2016 at 2:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterGamecock

"Science" at an arts festival.

Says it all

Jan 18, 2016 at 3:21 PM | Unregistered CommenterGeckko

This is the sort of thing that's done as a mini recruitment drive for the university courses and as general PR. The theme of the thing will attract the sort of people the MET Office want to pull in and we're not talking open minded scientists. Can you imagine if other courses did the same - Accountancy - how to cook the books; Business - kick a shop steward day; Pharma - meth lab for beginners; Chemistry - so you want to make a bomb; Computing - advanced hacking and how to scam millions.

Jan 18, 2016 at 3:23 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Gamecock, let us not forget that global warming 'science' is doing so much for the Malthusian ideal of killing people off, through lack of power, drinkable water, food and medicine. The promised jam tomorrow, is only for those who are still alive, and can afford it (assuming there is anyone left who actually knows how to make jam)

Jan 18, 2016 at 3:26 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

"there is so much more to climate change than global warming"

Oh boy, isn't there just!

Warming, cooling, no change, more rain, less rain, no rain, more snow, less snow, no snow, more hurricanes, fewer hurricanes, advancing glaciers, retreating glaciers, everything proves they are right.

Somehow.

Jan 18, 2016 at 4:10 PM | Unregistered CommenterAndrew Duffin

Well Exeter is an apt place! Will they have time to hindcast The Exeter floods of the 1960s

" During October 1960, Exeter had in excess of 380mm of rain, half the annual average. On 26 October 1960, a further 60mm of rain fell over the Exe catchment area causing the river to rise alarmingly. On the next day, the 27th October, or 'Black Thursday', 700 cubic metres of water per second (cumec) rushed down between the banks of the Exe......

and maybe turn their hand to:-

"......In 1625 a large flood caused devastation from Tiverton down to Exeter...... "

or, 1250, 1286, 1384 or

"at least five floods between 1917 and 1952.."

Jan 18, 2016 at 4:20 PM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand

One can only hope the Gore effect will come in to play on this date.

Jan 18, 2016 at 4:21 PM | Unregistered Commentermikegeo

Helen Czerski is employed by the BBC. Is her involvement in this a breach of impartiality?

Jan 18, 2016 at 5:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterFed

If anyone goes they can ask what the CO2 level was when this happened: https://books.google.ca/books?id=gjguAAAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false

Jan 18, 2016 at 5:06 PM | Unregistered CommenterMikeC

I expect someone from the BBC will be there to collect the most extreme sound bites.

Jan 18, 2016 at 5:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterSchrodinger's Cat

Three of the biggest charlatans around. What could possibly go wrong.

Another nail in the coffin of the Met Office.

Jan 18, 2016 at 5:17 PM | Unregistered CommenterJohn B

Good lord, this is so stupid it almost merits me to fly across the pond again.

Jan 18, 2016 at 5:25 PM | Unregistered CommenterAnthony Watts

The evening event, A Question of Extremes, is TICKETED, and you will need to book your tickets in advance.

Tickets cost £10 / £7 conc plus a £1 booking fee per ticket.


Book early to avoid disappointment.

Jan 18, 2016 at 5:50 PM | Unregistered CommenterMartyn

Climate Science is a good pairing with the study of art and music

Jan 18, 2016 at 6:17 PM | Unregistered CommenterDBD

Maybe members of the Institute of Physics can question Paul Hardaker about his specific knowledge of climate scientivism. Any physicists who browse here should take issue if physics is ignored by their professional body and replaced by pseudo physics or entropic man physics. The lack of repeat subscription fees is damaging to such societies.

Jan 18, 2016 at 7:15 PM | Unregistered CommenterDiogenes

Your title: Wam-Bam, reminds me of this movie:
The Flim-Flam Man (1967)

This is a very funny movie and that ties it to WAMfest, the festival of weather art and music.

Jan 18, 2016 at 7:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterJohn F. Hultquist

"there is so much more to climate change than global warming"

lol
Yet the usual suspects just released a video attempting to discredit the satellite measurements of the aforementioned, and now notoriously flaccid, global warming.

Jan 18, 2016 at 7:59 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

If anyone goes, make sure Prof Dame Julia is reminded of this:

"Speaking to MPs on the influential environmental audit committee about the state of the warming Arctic, Julia Slingo, the chief scientist at the Met Office, said that decreasing amounts of ice in the far north was contributing to colder winters in the UK and northern Europe as well as to DROUGHT."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/mar/14/met-office-arctic-sea-ice-loss-winter

Jan 18, 2016 at 8:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterGalvanize

Good lord, this is so stupid it almost merits me to fly across the pond again.

Jan 18, 2016 at 5:25 PM | Unregistered CommenterAnthony Watts

I read that and initially didn't pick up the poster name because I laughed at the idea of somebody so exasperated that they levitated across a small area of water.

If you do decide to come - consider the tip jar hit from me at least.

Jan 18, 2016 at 8:39 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Count me in on the "tip jar" for both the Bish and Anthony attending ...........................

Jan 18, 2016 at 9:26 PM | Unregistered CommenterRobert Thomson

"there is so much more to climate change than global warming". Perhaps they will have a look at Global Warming's evil sister Global Cooling and take her seriously. Perhaps the Gore Effect will come into play and no one will be able to get there through the huge snow drifts.

Jan 18, 2016 at 9:46 PM | Unregistered Commenternicholas tesdorf

Hmmm
I probably know more about the historic climate of devon than any of the speakers. It would be good to go but I couldn't download a programme. Can anyone tell me the date and time of this event?

Tonyb

Jan 18, 2016 at 9:51 PM | Unregistered Commentertonyb

If I had a spare half hour and they would pay me for the time lost, I could sit down and listen and probably ponder on, other than, propaganda techniques, bird brained advocacy and quasi, half baked statisticians - pretenders to be climate scientists - whatever that might entail. Once one, has cut through all the miasma of bad science and mythological climate BS - what is it that they; Czerski, Slingit and Stott could possibly say that would be of the slightest interest?

Hardaker and on Physics - just maybe.

Jan 18, 2016 at 9:52 PM | Unregistered CommenterAthelstan.

"..our panel will invite your questions and take you on an entertaining journey through the science of weather and climate and what it means for you"

As the take-away message will, doubtlessly, be "We're all going to die and it's your fault", I can only assume that the entertainment will come from the artworks of Hieronymus Bosch (e.g. Last Judgement, Hell and Hell 2) to a rousing background of Leonard Cohen tracks capped by that most uplifting of 20th Century composers Rezső Seress with his "Hungarian Suicide Song" aka "Gloomy Sunday" to remind the audience of what the following day will bring.

Tony, stay away mate ; we need you too much:)

Jan 18, 2016 at 10:43 PM | Unregistered CommenterRoyFOMR

+1 for "Count me in on the "tip jar" for both the Bish and Anthony attending ..........................."

Jan 18, 2016 at 11:21 PM | Unregistered CommenterVarco

tonyb:

A Question of Extremes How is our Climate Changing? The Forum, 7pm to 9.30pm Saturday 5 March 2016

http://media.virbcdn.com/files/ba/5675ad4cbe977064-WAMExtremeWeatherEventProgramme.pdf

Jan 18, 2016 at 11:34 PM | Unregistered Commenternot banned yet

WHY EVERYONE SHOULD BE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE CO2 GREENHOUSE

It is obvious to any physicist that the greenhouse conjecture is false, because the direct solar radiation reaching the surface is less than a third of what would be required to explain observed surface temperatures.

James Hansen noted this apparent discrepancy and, not realizing that the rest of the required thermal energy is in fact supplied during the day by non-radiative processes, he wrongly assumed that radiation from the cold atmosphere could be added to solar radiation and the total used in Stefan-Boltzmann calculations. But even the net of 390W/m^2 which included the back radiation would not be enough because it is variable flux and can thus only achieve a mean temperature much closer to freezing point. He really needed over 450W/m^2 but glossed over that fact and “taught” the world of climatology the totally incorrect physics based on compounding the radiation from two effectively sub-zero sources and assuming that the sum “explained” observations.

Now, most of the atmospheric radiation comes from the most prolific “greenhouse” gas, water vapor which is claimed to cause warming, though evidence suggests the opposite. So where did it all go so wrong? Hansen incorrectly assumed that, without IR-active greenhouse gases, the temperatures in the troposphere would be isothermal. That is not what the Second Law of Thermodynamics tells us, because it says entropy will be a maximum, not temperatures equal. Every vortex cooling tube in the world demonstrates how a force field (like gravity or centrifugal force) sets up a radial temperature gradient as that force acts on molecules in flight between collisions. The “lapse rate” (climatology speak for temperature gradient) is not due to imaginary “parcels” of air rising, expanding and cooling, because there is nothing to hold any such parcels together as the molecules move randomly between collisions at speeds of about 1,800 Km/hour.

This temperature gradient evolves at the molecular level in accord with the process of maximum entropy production, and that state of maximum entropy is reached when there are no remaining unbalanced energy potentials. That means that the sum of mean molecular gravitational potential energy and kinetic energy is homogeneous, and so there is a temperature gradient.

Once we understand that the temperature gradient is what physicists call the state of thermodynamic equilibrium, then everything falls into place. We can deduce quite simply that new solar energy absorbed in the stratosphere and upper atmosphere each morning will disturb the equilibrium and it can only be restored by downward non-radiative heat transfers, these being the real source of the missing energy Hansen tried to explain with back radiation.

So, in fact, temperatures in a planetary system build up from anchoring layers in the upper troposphere and above, all the way to the core, because the temperature gradient, forming at the molecular level, can be calculated and shown to occur in solids, liquids and gases. It forms by a slow process which can be over-ridden, and is, in the oceans and the stratosphere, but, in general, it dominates. It is observed in all planetary tropospheres, and so the probability of this “heat creep” hypothesis being wrong is millions to one against.

http://climate-change-theory.com

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-TXYe4rJp0xmbBh51AD8jptu34LAJc-b

Jan 19, 2016 at 12:26 AM | Unregistered CommenterRetired Physics Educator

Don't be frightened by disclosure, climate heathens.

It is brilliant, simply brilliant, that these folks are out there, stating publicly their stance.

The time will come when we will look back on these well-recorded activities and appreciate their importance for exactly what they are.

Poooooooopcorn.

Jan 19, 2016 at 1:09 AM | Unregistered CommenterAila

"leading science communicators" = "leading science dis-informers"

#Gecko ---"Science" at an arts festival ---
Yes Climate Science does tend to be rather CREATIVE.... and EMOTIONAL so may fit in well

Jan 19, 2016 at 4:21 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

If this becomes a climate hype road trip, count on my to put i some shekels to help the cause.
Bing Crosby and Bob Hope did several great road trip movies, if I recall.....

Jan 19, 2016 at 4:35 AM | Unregistered Commenterhunter

Climate historian Tony Brown aka Climate Reason lives nearby, I expect he'll go. I'll give him a nudge to go and to report here.

The University of Exeter, which used to be a respectable body, is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Jan 19, 2016 at 6:40 AM | Unregistered CommenterOwen Morgan

I wonder if they will get around to discussing Dartmoor’s climate history described now as being “a formidable challenge for plants and animals and for those people who work the land”.
It once enjoyed a mild climate, was heavily wooded then cleared by neolithic farmers followed by intensive cultivation by bronze age farmers.
I know soil acidification is a problem but maybe Climate Change™ will bring back the warmer drier conditions of the Minoan WP and Bronze Age.

Jan 19, 2016 at 6:47 AM | Unregistered CommenterChris Hanley

There is evidence of Medieval resettlement of Dartmoor at Houndtor, Huntholes and Dinna Clerks (terrific names), three settlements abandoned probably due to the deteriorating climate.

Jan 19, 2016 at 7:22 AM | Unregistered CommenterChris Hanley

Galvanize

Perhaps we should ask.......

Which one is it tonight?

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/mar/14/met-office-arctic-sea-ice-loss-winter

http://www.carbonbrief.org/met-office-climate-change-made-uks-extreme-wet-winter-in-20134-seven-times-more-likely-2

Jan 19, 2016 at 9:12 AM | Unregistered CommenterBryan

@Retired Physics Educator: in 1976, a NY researcher claimed the ratio of 'Outgoing Longwave Radiation' to 'black body surface IR', ~0.6, is Earth's 'emissivity'**. This bad physics, using different temperatures in the calculation, should never have been published and implied ~40% more atmospheric warming than reality.

Also in 1976, the first modelling paper by NASA/GISS offset this extra energy by imaginary 'negative convection'. Another mistake meant the 'positive feedback' claim was fictitious. in 1988, Hansen deceived US Congress with incorrect modelling. In 2000, he admitted the 1976 'fudge' to an American Institute of Physics interviewer***.

The Enhanced GHE does not exist. UKMO replaced Hansen's fudge, with a more plausible explanation still bad physics. Greenies in government must accept their intention to destroy the UK economy, possibly killing millions, and enriching subsidy farmers is based on a politically-motivated fantasy.

**R D Cess, J. Atm. Sci., Vol 33, No 10, pp 1831 - 1843, see Eq. 3 and preceding paragraph.

***https://www.aip.org/history-programs/niels-bohr-library/oral-histories/24309-1

Jan 19, 2016 at 9:22 AM | Unregistered CommenterNCC 1701E

Get Exeter, contract brain rot.


Exeter and free speech?

Spending a few minutes trawling Exeter U's sites and courses, one is immediately struck not only that its Islamic Research promotion and apologist centre is so very well funded [one can only glazed eyed, speculate at its affluent provenance......].
It is that, the quite astonishing range and scope of its international links to other campuses on all five continents and in just about every subject they purport to 'teach' - the word I have in mind though is "indoctrinate".
Now, expanding on Exeter is but a minor Uni, but one can only ponder on the enormous scope of some other Universities external links not least those of Leeds, Manchester - two of the biggest universities in the country and of course - all London University academia.
Dawning on me is, the realization that, the academic hothouse that is UK academia is closely interlinked and no doubt heavily influenced by overseas academic on message UNEP BS magnetism, sway, prestige, domination, supremacy and you choose.
One finds one's way back to that nest of vipers and redoubt of charlatanry; the preposterous idea of climate consensus, in noting the symbiosis of the western world's institutionalized academic camaraderie, each of them reliant upon each other, where any sort of questioning actually the received wisdoms - would immediately lead to a rather steep, even precipitous fall and curtailment of one's academic life chances/i> ahem one's career.

It's insidious, it's clever, too bloody clever - this UN-EU inspired and pathogen of pervasive brain rot, causing, teaching kids to sing off the same hymnal but it will breed morons, can it be, that is the exact intention. I believe it is, evidently this is a mass and systematically done brainwashing, thus making kids forcing them to drink at the fount of all propaganda - the climate Kool Aid dispenser.

Jan 19, 2016 at 9:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterAthelstan.

@Athelstan: Yes, it is intentional. Only the intellectual elites will receive a decent open minded education. Buried deep within Agenda 21 is the edict that education should be dumbed down, as educated people have a higher carbon footprint than those of a lower education! The neo ruling elite must have someone to manipulate & control! It's no conspiracy hidden away & conducted behind closed doors, it's all been undertaken in full view of the populace, only most never bothered to look, as always! There is a European School in Culham, Oxfordshire, sponsored by the EU. It is to educate the offsrping of the Euro-elites, to be good Eurpoean citizens, & there are to date some 14 such schools across the EU. One can sned ones children there if you have around £15,000+ a year to pay for it & there is a space available! It's all very 1984!

Jan 19, 2016 at 10:19 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan the Brit

There is a European School in Culham, Oxfordshire, sponsored by the EU. It is to educate the offsrping of the Euro-elites, to be good Eurpoean citizens, & there are to date some 14 such schools across the EU. One can sned ones children there if you have around £15,000+ a year to pay for it & there is a space available! It's all very 1984!

The UN, agenda 21 - is the source of our ills and yes we pay for their kids to be given the best.


I used to wonder about the UN, until I rummaged a tad and found out that >40% of UN funding comes from the EU taxpayers, which means in effect that, we're funding the downfall of western civilization, facilitating and making permanent our own subservience [via dumbing down of our society] and in the same moment cementing the hegemony of the EUro elite in the process.
You really have to take life with a large shovel full of salt these days, ignoring the sound (bite) advice of UK physicians in the meantime. Wiping the tears from mine eyes, inter alia of the UN, it is become synonymous with universal mendacity only such an organization permeated through by corruption could offer the post of 'International tourism ambassador' with a straight man act. But that was just an hors d' oeuvre when compared to this. and is what you get when you elect arrogant toffs who think they know it all but he is actually a frontman patsy prompted and backed by forces and interactions from a far more sinister and black hearted intelligence whether it be Gulf sourced funded or, coerced by an untouchable elite.

Jeepers H on a bike, as the EU referendum picks up momentum. The charade will be on, in full flow and all the Westminster glitterati will be informing us that, the EU knows what is best for Britain and only through our membership of this noble club can we preserve our place at the top table - what they won't tell you though is, the proles aren't allowed at the top table unless of course they want to fight with the curs (you, me and thanks to open door mass immigration - the rest of the world) - for the scraps.

Internationalism + Corporatism/ Statism = did you see the figures the other day? In the papers, 62 people, in their combined wealth, have more than half of the rest added together ie 3.5 billion souls.

One of their [the elite's] clarions, they exhort the masses to more fairness and more EQUALITY - someone and quite obviously is, extracting the urine - and may God help us - the EU/UN is organizing the brewery.

Jan 19, 2016 at 2:01 PM | Unregistered CommenterAthelstan.

Hmm, with reference to the UK, House of Saud and the UN - I missed out a link in that last piece, I really must endeavour to take more care, here it is:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/sep/29/uk-and-saudi-arabia-in-secret-deal-over-human-rights-council-place

apols.

Jan 19, 2016 at 2:06 PM | Unregistered CommenterAthelstan.
Jan 19, 2016 at 6:12 PM | Unregistered CommenterJack Hughes

I layed a lovely gas main into the campus a few years ago,i presume it has been disconnected by now i also worked on the cooling system for the supercomputer installed at the Met Office on the outskirts of Exeter pity i didn't accidently fit a non return valve the wrong way would have saved all of us a lot of trouble.

Jan 19, 2016 at 8:39 PM | Unregistered Commentermarc

"pity i didn't accidently fit a non return valve the wrong way would have saved all of us a lot of trouble."


;0))))

Jan 20, 2016 at 9:04 AM | Unregistered CommenterAthelstan.

The European School at Culham was established in the 1970s to educate the children of the international scientists working on JET, the fusion project. I don't think at that point (before our EU referendum in 1975) its purpose was malign.

Jan 21, 2016 at 12:27 AM | Unregistered CommenterIt doesn't add up...

If any of you nut cases do attend, don't forget to wear your tinfoil hats.

Jan 22, 2016 at 6:49 PM | Unregistered CommenterTin Man

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>