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Climate sensitivity - just as we thought

Nic Lewis has a new paper out at Climate Dynamics, which provides new estimates of effective climate sensitivity and transient climate response. This is in essence an update to Lewis 2014, with better data. The results are very similar, with ECS at 1.66 and TCR at 1.37.

There's a technical post about the paper at Climate Audit and a preprint here.



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Reader Comments (9)

There was a posting here that describe a talk by Myles Allen in which he strongly criticized the Otto climate sensitivity paper. Has Nic Lewis commented on these points.

Jun 2, 2015 at 2:25 PM | Unregistered CommenterTom gray

I didn't read the article. I assume the answer is zero.

Jun 2, 2015 at 2:40 PM | Unregistered Commenteresmiff

Tom gray

I don’t know what Myles Allen’s objections to Otto et al (2013) are or their grounds, so I can't comment. I’ve seen a tweet implying that he said Otto et al “ignores the disequilibrium effect” but I've no idea what that refers to - it makes no sense to me.

Jun 2, 2015 at 3:13 PM | Unregistered CommenterNic Lewis

I have always assumed that too, the CliSci group are gradually working their way there.

Jun 2, 2015 at 6:29 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Nice work. Don't understand it but I appreciate your efforts anyway.

Jun 2, 2015 at 6:59 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

I'm still not convinced that CS is anymore than 0.3 to 0.5 °C for doubling. If we had reliable temperature records for the past 100 yrs or even 10 yrs I would be more easily convinced.

Jun 2, 2015 at 8:46 PM | Unregistered CommenterStephen Richards

If we had reliable temperature records for the past 100 yrs…
Perhaps we have – it’s just that they have not been giving the desired results of support for the theories. Simples: let’s “adjust” or “homogenise” the older data so that it fits in with the theory. Problem solved!

Jun 2, 2015 at 10:15 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Approaching the no-feedback effect as a limit. Well, thanks to the silver lining of clouds, it's a soft limit.

Jun 3, 2015 at 7:48 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is inferred from estimates of instrumental-period warming attributable solely to greenhouse gases (AW), as derived in two recent multi-model Detection and Attribution (D&A) studies that apply optimal fingerprint methods with high spatial resolution to 3D global climate model simulations.

The above quote is from Nic's post on Climate Audit

Is it the case that Nic now has the capability to attribute warming specifically to greenhouse gases without knowing all the factors which influence that warming?
Truly amazing!

Jun 3, 2015 at 8:15 PM | Registered CommenterDung

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