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Oct302015
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Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill The last chance saloons
Oct 30, 2015 Blogs Climate: IPCC ;)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/spendadaytouring/3627047294Ahead of the Paris climate conference, Climate Change Predictions is having a lovely time reviewing all the previous "last chances" we have faced.
Just how many last chance saloons are there in Climateville?
Reader Comments (36)
I think there's a Josh cartoon in there somewhere.
We mustn't forget this scary countdown clock: only 14 months and we reach the point of no return.
It's the sheer bloody arrogance that gets me! Which 'God' said two degrees above pre-industrial revolution GAT (whatever that is) was the ideal climate? Well, of course, the BBC is one of the disciples. This morning's news had them in raptures over the report that the UN are claiming the projection of 2.7 Deg, while still above danger level, was lower than the 3.1 Deg projected, so the world has responded and the plan to decarbonise was working! And there, children, is the definition of 'hubris'.
"the point of no return"
After which, there will be no point in worrying, or having conferences...
Just how many last chance saloons are there in Climateville?
Has many are need to keep the gravy train of funding and political ambition on track >
That the UN is now claiming CO2 'reduction' is working , although not enough , was fully predictable without any 'models' years ago as it was clear they have no choice but to you claims some form of victory no matter what happened.
Compared to cutting CO2, world peace is easy and look how far the UN have got with that one. Signing on the dotted line in Paris is just a measure of how deluded the people with the pens are. Who signs a deal they can't keep to? Who unilaterally signs a deal? Who signs a deal when deep down they know the science behind the bulk of the alarm is somewhat third rate? I'd be more impressed if they had a serious meeting about what works and what doesn't. If they all spoke freely about what was wrong with the science and what they'd need to genuinely act, I'd have far more respect than for this pantomime they go through every year. But then these people are professional procrastinators. They're following in a long tradition of pretending to solve things the UN has no power to solve. Moving a nano particle forward each time and pretending it's progress. It's a good job the planet isn't really in peril.
We must not be complacent.
The End has never been so Nigh!
Oct 30, 2015 at 9:46 AM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2
The answer to all your 'who' questions is that world famous comedy double act 'Barmy and Dave'.
Dung, unfortunately true. But even they don't mean it. They'll throw a bit of money at it and then get bored with the lack of miraculous response.
Two
A dog's chance and no chance:-)
Those of us in the "Birding" community will have noticed that the Atlantic Puffin has suddenly been moved two places toward "Extinction" by the IUCN.
Currently it is listed as being of "Least Concern" but is about to be moved to "Vulnerable" (missing out "Near Threatened" altogether)
Reference to Birdlife's site reveals that - "This species is susceptible to the impact of Climate Change, such as sea temperature rise and shifts in prey distribution and abundances".
You may be sure that the Grauniad will be hammering this message home throughout November and that the rest of the "dead tree press" will continue to distort the message, while failing to do any research.
Harry Passfield
Well, of course, the BBC is one of the disciples. This morning's news had them in raptures over the report that the UN are claiming the projection of 2.7 Deg, while still above danger level, was lower than the 3.1 Deg projected, so the world has responded and the plan to decarbonise was working!
***********************
Harry, you have got to be joking?
I remember that puffins were all going to disappear in the 1970s, due to a shortage of sand eels. Their numbers recovered and so did the puffins.
Ignore this pre-Paris nonsense, like all the food scares it is a Mencken hobgoblin.
Anybody who talks about keeping the global average temperature rise to below 2degC is not being scientific and should be ignored.
Chris Packham was 100% certain on the BBC yesterday that the increase in ticks and Lymes Disease over the last 15 years is all due to climate change.
How are toads doing on the endangered species list? ^.^
If we could change all the alarmists into turkeys (it would not be that hard) I am convinced we could talk them into voting for Christmas. Is this a viable proposition?
toad,
Presumably the category of 'Near Threatened' that puffins bypassed is in danger itself... of being renamed 'Rampantly Successful', since it lists the red kite, the population and range of which has grown rapidly for several decades.
Then there's that other type of salon that will be doing good business with the climate-poodles in Paris...
Whilst scorning another idea of the hypocritical do-gooders (a sugar tax) on practical grounds, CityAM reminded us of the entertainment on offer for the last knees-up in Copenhagen:
flexdoctor
Now that Buzzards are more common than Sparrows (here in Great Malvern) we're all supposed to be delighted that top predators such as these, Kestrels and Red Kites fill our skies, ignoring the fact that every other creature further down the food chain is being annihilated.
My current motto (in jest) is '"Help to save an endangered Lizard - kill a Kestrel to-day".
Dung
One doesn't mention "successful Toads" to Aussies.
Rabbits outnumber them by 10 to 1 and Bufo marinus outnumbers Rabbits by 10 to 1.
Trouble is they tend not to integrate, they just eat everything smaller and poison anything larger !
CheshireRed: I quote from the BBC news web:
As far as I know, no scientist has ever said the 2 Deg threshold is dangerous. This was all put up by PR men on behalf of IPCC. Figueres cites an illusory target number, which bears no relation to the real world and then, when the numbers come in under that 'target' she will claim that all they are doing is working. It's like when I tell my wife that leaving dirty socks on the floor keeps away elephants. As I said to her: Do you see any elephants? It works!@ Phillip Bratby:
"Anybody who talks about keeping the global average temperature rise to below 2degC is not being scientific and should be ignored."
Chris Packham was 100% certain on the BBC yesterday that the increase in ticks and Lymes Disease over the last 15 years is all due to climate change.
Well he may actually be right, but of course who says it is a result of Human activity? This is part of the problem in greenalist thinking, they convince themselves of their own belief system! I was questioning a friend last month on his greenalist views, so I pointed out that we are living in an Interglacial, & that the last four Interglacials were warmer than today, to which he replied, "the previous Interglacials are irrelevant!" Says it all really! As the saying goes, "A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still!" You cannot beat them with that mentality.
I warned you all to look out for pre-conference bullsh*t overload......
Nearer the time it'll get hysterical....
I notice that the Arctic Sea Ice graphs look distinctly average - despite the claims that its all melting - but hey - don't let the evidence get in the way of a good scare story, eh..?
toad,
I've never understood why ecologists (including leading British Trust for Ornithology staff) claim that predator numbers don't impact significantly on prey populations. This is of course not the case when discussing the use of biocontrol agents as alternatives to agrochemicals.
Construction of "Last Chance Saloons", has been a very successful boom industry in climate science. As each one is stranded due to unforeseen circumstances, (though easily predicted by others) new exciting opportunities open up for building more.
Polar bears find "Last Chance Saloons" built on shrinking ice caps, to be very durable structures, and offer excellent shelter away from freezing conditions and scientists armed with dart guns. Buried beneath snow, they are perfect for raising families away from prying eyes, but would prefer more convenient access to the unfrozen food departments at localwaterholes, and note that the composting toilets do not work in sub-zero conditions.
GC, polar bears are so yesterday in the pantheon of doom. As of this week, it's Snow Leopards that will go BBC-up before Paris.
michael hart, snow leopards have gone about their natural lives, being as quiet and unobtrusive as possible. They are now being hounded to extinction by environmentalists, eager to be the last ones to 'capture' a snow leopard in the wild.
You are of course correct that environmentalists are bored with polar bears, as they refused to die on camera in large numbers in accordance with the prepared script.
For a generation brought up with 'predictive text', the failure of predicted extinctions, is a cause for concern. To everybody else, it is the natural world, simply doing what it always has done.
Latest from Figueres:
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/energy/news/we-are-not-giving-up-on-a-2-degrees-warmer-world-says-un-climate-chief/1021301.article
"...We continually underestimate the power of technology, the speed with which capital can move over, and above all, we underestimate human ingenuity,” Figueres said. “So I think one of the most powerful outcomes of Paris is that it’s going to focus human ingenuity on what seems now as an absolutely invincible challenge. It is not invincible. If we have already brought the extended temperature from 4-5 deg C to under 3, we already have evidence that we can do this.”
You have to admire the audacity!
toad,
The A href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/29/puffin-turtle-dove-extinction-uk-endangered-species">Guardian has made an issue of puffin decline.
I asked when the decline happened. As we've had no significant climate change for a quarter of a century in the UK.
But we have built a lot of wind farms.
Wind farms only affect raptors, I was told (they are clever that way).
And the sea has warmed affecting sand eels. But there was no evidence for that.
Anyway, the puffins no longer appear on the Guardian environment section front page.
So I guess they aren't important, scary or persuasive.
It's been said before that that is their best line of retreat. Like the Grand Old Duke of York, they can model themselves up to the top of the hill, and then they can model themselves back down again.
After that, it is simply a matter of declaring victory and withdrawing.
Last chance saloon? I suppose we're always supping there and because we are always chased by the Four Horsemen but MM CO₂.................................. will not be the cause of 'End of days'.
Even if, some nutter pressed the button and all out nuclear war brought down Armageddon on the earth, the world would keep spinning around its star. In time, the world would heal itself and no visiting alien [or us] would probably notice the overgrown greened over remnants and outlines of cities - eventually the seasons, wind, sun and rain, rivers, sea and ice: weathering would rub them all away to dust, no signs would be left....
Pumping out a few million tons of CO₂, for goodness sakes, is neither here nor, is it there - for Gaia swallows this morsel, as does a feeding whale filters zooplanktons in seas of phytoplanktons.
It is true to say, mankind is vulnerable in his own mortality, more pertinently because of his - our endless stupidity, its avarice and murderous ways, mankind's ever willingness to kill his fellows in great numbers, at last we're not much further up the scale than our close cousins the Chimps and yet we can look to the stars and ponder, and with our marvellous propensity to ingenuity: therein is, can be, will be our salvation.
JamesG, as we have done nothing significant, according to climate science experts, to achieve the predicted reduction, it is of vital importance that we continue to do nothing significant to restore normality in the climate.
Figueres previously emphasised the other benefits of climate science, regarding air pollution etc, so I think she knows that climate science doesn't add up. Climate scientists have long demonstrated a problem with maths, and simple addition is the least of their worries.
Now that Buzzards are more common than Sparrows (here in Great Malvern) we're all supposed to be delighted that top predators such as these, Kestrels and Red Kites fill our skies, ignoring the fact that every other creature further down the food chain is being annihilated.
Very happy here, a pair of buzzards turned up one summer and within 6 months all the rabbits were gone !!!! 15 years and no return yet and the lettuces taste fine.
I wish I could remember the source to give credit or the context, but anyhow the statement was ' He has a loyalty card at the last chance saloon'. Made me smile.
@jamesp
> After which, there will be no point in worrying, or having conferences...
You wish ... and so do I
But the wowsers *never* shut up