Tuesday
Sep022014
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Climate emergency
Sep 2, 2014 Energy: grid The urge to do something about the alleged threat of climate change finally seems to have brought us to the brink of a real emergency:
Emergency supplies of electricity are being sought by the National Grid for this winter because of the threat of shortages of output from the UK’s coal, gas and nuclear power stations.
National Grid said on Tuesday it was extending its search for additional sources of temporary supplies, blaming emergency shutdowns at two nuclear power stations operated by EDF of France and unexpected fires at two key coal-fired stations during recent months – Ironbridge in Shropshire and Ferrybridge in Yorkshire.
Is it time that MPs demanded a statement from Mr Davey? Or do they not actually care?
Reader Comments (62)
Meanwhile on Twitter today DECC confirm their disconnect from reality
CC zealots often make statements like "nothing will change until Downing Street floods", when actually its "nothing will change until power cuts begin".
The solution is simple, kick renewables off the grid and give the priority and guaranteed income to gas, ideally sourced from fracking and North Sea coal gasification.
As I said a few years ago on here, and no doubt elsewhere, the likely impending electricity blackouts and brownouts will likely result in civilian injuries and fatalities, and if prolonged, social disorder, riots, looting, and arson are also on the cards in any affected cities. Blackouts will also present a threat to national security, and the military top brass should really be knocking on Cameron's door to point this out in no uncertain terms, because it will be the army which is tasked with restoring law and order and potential curfews. Davey and his DECC advisors, (and Milliband and Cameron) will have a lot to answer for in the aftermath. Windmill loving Salmond and Swinney likewise, north of the border.
I don't know why you are being so hard on the politicians.
Taking an imaginary crisis and turning it into a real one takes skill!
Lapogus, the problem is that we live in a post-logic world.
When power cuts happen, the green establishment will say, "See! The UK can't depend on fossil fuels. We need to build more renewables right now!"
Interesting that they highlight the potential power shortage from the conventional sources without mentioning that the renewable sources haven't stepped up to the line given for them.
Will no journalist or MP bother to point out the obvious??
Page 44 of the N. Grid consultation:
Potential UK Impact
111. Although the UK does not receive significant quantities of gas from Russia, both our
direct and indirect connections to European markets make it likely that UK gas
supplies would alter as the market responds to any reduction of Russian imports.
112. In the event of a disruption, the UK could see some reductions in imports from
Norway (Langeled/Vesterled) and The Netherlands (BBL), with exports to Belgium
(IUK) likely. To balance the reduction in imports and increase in demand, LNG
imports would be expected to increase to cover the majority of the shortfall, although
increased withdrawals from storage sites could also be possible depending on the
level of UK demand.
Since we are in the business of everything happening at once...lets have a war or similar, or get terrorist attacks on our power stations. Or just major failures + extreme cold. Then get the Druids praying around the windmills after you have de-frosted both with a big bonfire or 10+. Daveys furniture first....
What a bunch of w*nkers! Brussels fed though?
Looks like Naomi is right, just out by 40 years:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/naomi_orekes_tells_robyn_100_metres_williams_an_even_taller_tale/
Or do they not actually care?
Ils s'en foutent.
Ed Davey is just a headless chicken, running around clucking about global warming. He is totally unaware about the consequences of his daft energy strategy.
Furthermore, given the financial interest members have from both houses, in renewable energy why should they care about us plebs when they are raking it in.
I wonder how much Tim Yeo has received from external sources this last 10 years?
They can borrow my little 3.2kW genny...
For a price.....
Just like in Belgium, the owners of plant which will cease to be economic when windmill output rises above a critical level are extending inspection periods to extract counter-subsidies from government via the NGC.
It's a Game of Chicken between Davey and the Central Generators, also a political struggle between Davey, who represents subsidy farmers and carbon traders, our generation's fascists, and politicians who represent the people. The Lib Dems and the other parties were infiltrated by the fascists from the 1980s. Oxford PPE students were indoctrinated and offered a route to power by the eugenicist elite using the IPCC CO2 scam as excuse.
Thats the thing about conventional and nuclear generation. When it goes down it can go down big time. And you need lots of backup to keep the lights on! Did someone say renewables were intermittent?
They can also borrow my genny at a price. I note that wind is currently stepping up to the mark with 0.7% (268MW).
In the good old days of the CEGb, we used to operate with a winter capacity margin of 20-25%. But that was in the days when engineers were in charge of the supply. Now, with things decided by PPEs, it seems to be acceptable to operate with a negative margin.
Nice of National Grid to discretely implicate 'France' in the looming crisis. Nothing like a spot of patriotic frog-bashing to create a diversion.
In the event of blackouts any sane and responsible government would sack the minister responsible, so that should mean the end of Ed Davey, but I won't hold my breath. He won't have the decency to resign, and Cameron won't be allowed to fire him by Clegg.
Just you watch.
Sep 2, 2014 at 5:33 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A
I prefer : ils sont fou. More accurate I think.
Power cuts before the next 2015 general election they will start to care.
Richard North has an interesting take on the vacuum cleaner ban
http://www.eureferendum.com
what he says makes sense to me
essentially what we have noted before - doing things more efficiently creates wealth
Dear Ed
Where are the measures that you should have taken under the "Precautionary Principle" in order
to mitigate this situation?
H2O
Davey and DECC should ask someone sensible why that is..
How many remember the three day week? We were tougher then and coped - I'm afraid that it will not be the same in future.
DECC@DECCgovuk
Ed Davey: The UK is the only country in Europe with a project to develop chocolate fireguards and bicycles for fish.
Ok - I made it up - but it has about the same relevance as his real statements...
Trefor: "How many remember the three day week? We were tougher then and coped - I'm afraid that it will not be the same in future."
I remember it well. We didn't have anything like the reliance on computers and electronic storage then. Business would be buggered. There was a power cut near me a few months ago (due to a broken cable, I gather). Shops could not open their electric doors or use the electronic tills. No doubt there's so much more that doesn't come to mind until it happens. It would be a disaster.
I suggest there will be some sort of terrorist threat/attack on a power station to 'justify' the potential power shortages and absolve UKPLC of responsibility (additionally creating the right situation for 'interference' in whatever country/arena is required).
Too cynical perhaps?
mike fowle - you're right. The more you think about it the worse it gets...
They can't 'hand crank' petrol pumps now..!
All shops would be closed - no power - no laser barcode readers...
The list is endless..
And Ed Davey's in charge..?? Words fail me...
Some years ago I was in a supermarket close to closing time when they had a power cut that disabled the tills. They decided to allow shoppers already in the store to pay for a rough under-estimate of the cost of their shopping - I think I paid roughly half price. Credit cards still used vouchers, and the rest of us paid cash. Of course, they couldn't afford to run the business like that on an ongoing basis. Bring back the abacus and chequebooks!.
sherlock1: "They can borrow my little 3.2kW genny..."
Enjoy while you can. The European EcoDesign Directive lurks in the shadows, stalking everyday devices and the unwary.
An account of London descending into chaos as a result of a power cut in 2003.
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/archives/assembly-reports-pubserv-powercut.pdf
"4.1 The power cut in London lasted for just over 30 minutes, yet the disruption that followed lasted for the entire night. Members of the Committee witnessed the chaos at first hand as they tried to travel home or to other engagements. The question on our minds was how could this be happening in London after all the reassurances given to Londoners post 9/1/"
In the right circumstances (like busy London city centre) even short power failures can have serious consequences.
Been through the "no power" check out experience, the stunned look on the cashiers face when the old gentlemen stood in front of her added up the cost of the 12 items, added the tax, and worked out the change from the offered cash for her. She didn't trust me and did the calculation very slowly and painfully with paper and pencil, getting it wrong the first time but with a look of disbelief when she realized I was right.
For me the real mental arithmetic skills came from working in my uncles pub in the days pre calculators and tills, adding up drinks orders and sorting change in the old pounds, shillings and pence days and in short order too on a busy Saturday night. You'd better get that right or be dragged across the bar by the scruff of your neck or be called a useless W******.
To the topic, from a distance this really is like watching a slow motion train crash. The problem is there is no easy fix to fifteen years or more of gross mismanagement. As much as I would like to see guilty parties including politicians, bureaucrats, green NGO's and alternate energy companies all hauled in front of the courts that will not fix the issues. I would suggest it will take a minimum 5 years on an emergency basis with a task force type response to even start to put the needed generation/distribution capacity back in.
Social unrest might well be required to focus the minds of the government. Mind you if they truly don't have a strategic plan to deal with Scottish independence vote in just a few weeks, as has been stated, then god help the country when it comes to government action on this issue.
Raff, you really are a bit dim. Renewables are intermittent – well done for spotting that! Conventionals are not; thus, with conventional power generation, plans can be made, including contingency plans should one or more stations suffer a failure, as there were – note: were – sufficient power stations to be able to cope with that scenario. Now, with just enough conventional stations to provide power to cover the base load, add the variable input from “renewables” (ho-ho – what an amusing term!), then throw a spanner in the works. Can your beloved “renewables” cope with the problem? (Let me give you a clue: the answer will only contain 2 letters.)
The last place that will suffer a black-out will be Wastemonster, so do not expect any action for quite a while after black-outs start.
Sep 2, 2014 at 7:29 PM | Unregistered CommenterH2O: the miracle molecule
what he says makes sense to me
essentially what we have noted before - doing things more efficiently creates wealth
so let s all buy the new 1000000000 euro best vacuum cleaner to save 1 euro electricity a year. for sure the vacuum cleaner seller will be wealthy
Has anyone else noticed on the Gridwatch.Templar site (right hand side), that imports from France and Holland have been running pretty much at maximum capacity (at God knows what cost) all this year.
Can't blame Ferrybridge fire etc. for all that!
And with Belgium also up sh1t creek for power, will the interconnector electricity be available for the UK in the depths of Winter?
Davey and Miliband must be impeached.
The most important point is the one that was brought up here by Sep 2, 2014 at 5:08 PM | mikegeo:
For the billions and billions spent on renewables, why are they completely unable to solve the power shortfall problem or even contribute in a meaningful way?
What was the point of spending billions on favorable tax treatment and even direct subsidy and special waivers if the power grid is worse off?
[snip]
"Is it time that MPs demanded a statement from Mr Davey? Or do they not actually care?"
The possibility that some of them suffer from a severe form of mental deficiency should not be ruled out. Not all of them, obviously. How many voted against the Climate Change Act?
Richard North says there's nothing to worry about:
jorgekafkazar;
Where deliberate ignorance is bliss, they think it folly to be wise.
They lack the technical knowledge to read reports, warnings etc. and rely on Sir Humphries's advice; which is always against taking any action in case it turns out to be wrong.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11070173/Emergency-measures-to-prevent-blackouts-this-winter-as-power-crunch-worsens.html
Emergency measures to relight mothballed coal fired power stations to avoid Winter Power Cuts
So much for reducing CO2 emissions.So how long will they stay on for.
Back door Recarbonisation.
"Cameron won't be allowed to fire him by Clegg"
Although I suspect that Clegg has used up any goodwill allowance with his bonkers (and expensive) scheme for school meals. It's just possible, I suppose, that enough parents with a bit of foresight will send their children with a packed lunch to mitigate the chaos, but I don't imagine that the name of Clegg will be too popular in primary schools just now.
Not a good idea to look to France for any bail-out of UK shortfalls.
"Suite à la communication en conseil des ministres du 18 juin, et à la phase de consultations, Ségolène Royal a présenté le 30 juillet en Conseil des ministres, le projet de loi relatif à la transition énergétique pour la croissance verte. "Cette loi invente notre futur commun, tout en mettant en place des applications immédiates", a indiqué la ministre."
In autumn Mme Royal will present a bill which will seek to reduce French reliance on nuclear from about 80% to 50% of the slate, with commensurate increase in renewables to 23%. All the usual promises are there - increased energy security (!!), lots of green jobs created (!!), cheaper energy (!!!), reduced fossil fuel use (!!!)
In the meantime French retail electricity prices are skyrocketing because of tax increases largely designed to support obligatory purchase schemes of renewable energy and government-subsidised capital investment in alternative generation. At the moment 65% of my electricity bill is tax. A sizable component is the CSPE - declared illegal by the EU Court of Justice but still being applied. This was introduced to reimburse the generator (EDF) for the subsidies paid to private investors in renewables, but has so far it has proved insufficient - the shortfall at end 2013 was around 5 billion EUROs.
I was offered solar panels recently completely free of charge. It works as follows:- I install solar panels and take on a debt of about 20,000 EURO, but get 25% back immediately in tax credit. The installer is hooked up to a financial institution which lends me the money with high interest and zero risk. Edf then buys all of the electricity generated by my solar panels at an obligatory tariff which is three times what I pay for electricity. The funds so generated are then transferred directly to the financial institution to repay the loan. Repayment is scheduled to take place over a ten-year period. After that, if the solar panels are still working, then I take benefit from the electricity generated to offset my electricity bill at that time for a maximum period of ten years. The whole scheme is designed to take taxpayer money and funnel it into the suppliers and installers of solar panels as well as the financial institutions who support the scheme. A similar scheme is available for wind generation but with a different tariff arrangement. What's not to like? The financial institutions are happy and prosperous.
Are there enough diesel locomotives to run the electrified sections of the rail network while the power is off?
Sherlock
"The more you think about it the worse it gets.."
It's an interesting, if grim, thought experiment. In fact, it's hard to think of anything less than 50 years old that doesn't rely on electricity to some extent, and half of those involve a computer. Back to candles, horses and bicycles...
What about STOR ( Short Term Operating Reserve )? Seems it was tailor made for this situation. But then I don't think we are supposed to know about it. See EUreferendum website again.
"enough diesel locomotives"
But no way of signalling, changing points or refuelling.. :-(
"They can't 'hand crank' petrol pumps now..!"
Or diesel pumps presumably, so I trust all you genny owners have ample fuel storage to supply your machines.
Davey and Miliband must be impeached.
Sep 2, 2014 at 11:16 PM | martin brumby
I'd support that. They've both, IMHO, gone beyond incompetence and into the realms of negligence. Ministers rarely have much expertise relevant to the departments they serve in, so must rely on advice. But they are not - or should not be - free of the responsibility to challenge any advice received and seek alternative points of view, in order to make informed decisions. I see no evidence of this from Davey, nor was there from Miliband. The result is a car-crash of an energy 'policy'. Unfortunately, the failure extends across Westminster; and we know from the Maastricht experience that trying to pin personal liability on a minister for his actions in relation to policy is next to impossible. So sadly, nothing will happen; Davey and Miliband and all the MPs who've supported their demented policies will in due course sail off into the sunset with their gold-plated pensions without a care in the world. It'll probably be Lord Davey before you know it. I feel another sick-bucket moment coming on...
Trefor said: "How many remember the three day week? We were tougher then and coped - I'm afraid that it will not be the same in future." And Mike Fowle: “I remember it well”.
I remember it as well: I was doing my Solicitor’s finals at the Ally Pally (Alexandra Palace) when all the lights in the hall suddenly went out at about 3pm. Being (somewhat) prepared, I fished a candle out of my pocket, lit it and carried on writing. The exam was stopped about 30 seconds later…!
And there was a wonderful tale going the rounds about a member of one of the Piccadilly clubs turning to another member and saying “Ye Gods, what’s that dreadful man Ted Heath up to now, with this 3-day week? He’ll be making us work 4 days a week next” …!
Sep 3, 2014 at 8:26 AM | Robin Guenier
Richard North has incredible faith in the schemes being dreamt up by proper engineers in National Grid in order to overcome problems caused by arrogant politicians** who mulishly refuse to admit their mistakes and retreat from their insane policies.
Thus, National Grid is in the hands of thousands of business owners, large consumers who will be called upon to stop work and amateur power stations who will be called upon to start their cheap diesel generators.
Both these communities have a guaranteed revenue stream from NG that more than covers the cost of providing the facility.
Failure to comply with the scheme, that is keep working instead of shutting down, or failing to generate because the cheap diesels won't start, only results in a fine. They won't care because they are already wallowing in the generous "being available" payments.
Trebles all round.
Richard North's skill is in picking holes in Daily Mail articles, not the provision of a reliable grid system.
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** those interested in the birth of the current chaos may be interested in Hansard from 25 February 1988, where Cecil Parkinson is hammered by John Prescott.
While complaining that renewables are intermittent, why did nobody here mention that nuclear and coal are intermittent?
Brownedoff: helpful analysis - thanks.