Pointman on the state of the debate

Pointman looks at the climate debate and forms an optimistic view of where we are. It's a must-read:

Replace food stables with biofuel crops and let the food riots begin. Refuse to let the developing world have access to better GM seeds, and let the crops fail. Let them starve. Don’t allow them funds to build power plants, leave them without light and heat. Don’t let them have access to DDT, let millions die needlessly of malaria every year. The list is endless but the common denominator of them all, is spending lives to save the Earth from various perceived but illusory threats.

Comments

[Heide de Klein]

The threats are not illusory, but are actually quite real. The threats, however, have never been to the planet, but to the privileged existence of an elite who see the main threat to their way of life being other human beings. Our f*cktard homeopathy advocating chinless hypocrite of a future king being a prime example.

[John Shade]

I've resolved to work my way through all of his posts when I get a chance. Anyone who writes this (http://thepointman.wordpress.com/about/)

The reason I began commenting was that I hated the effect the environmental movement was having on the developing world. A thinly veiled political movement, which is perceived as simply a fashionable lifestyle choice in the developed world, is causing death and misery amongst the eighty percent of humanity not fortunate enough to live well above the poverty line.

has won my attention, and his latest post to which you link is a tour-de-force summation of where we might be now, if one looks on the bright side, and also what we might do next:

The global warming craze is dying down

&

The reputation of climate science has taken a terrible beating

&, much later,

We need to give real help in fixing the root causes of problems rather than just mitigating their effects. They need access to cheap GM seeds that are drought and disease resistant. We need to stop growing bio fuels, to bring back down the price of food staples. They need access to things like DDT, so they can get rid of malaria, like we did half a century ago.

The big thing which is needed, and will bring on prosperity, is electricity. So much of the developing world is rich in minerals and ores. Africa, for instance, has 4% of the world’s coal. Let’s help them build generation plants. Whatever your view on that, what is obvious is they will build those plants in the end, because renewables are a laughably inadequate option for the developing world. It’s only by building real infrastructure that prosperity can come about.

When people are lifted out of grinding poverty, then they’ll be inclined to consider the environment, never mind the planet.

[michael hart]

I can agree with almost every word of it.

About electricity in Africa, though: It is a very big, sunny, continent. Solar generation can look very attractive when the user is off-grid far away far from a city (which may not have a functional electricity supply anyway). As with cell-phone networks, something that can be built in a modular fashion has a lot going for it.

Such lower entrance costs can make for greater cost efficiencies, cutting out middle-men and the ubiquitous political corruption that prevents so much good being achieved. Projects which are too big, too expensive, and too politically motivated to stop or change, are antithetical to learning from what does, and what does not, work.

All this is nothing new, of course, except to a lot of dewy-eyed environmentalists who have a surfeit of concern over competence. This century, Asian scientists and engineers will probably do more for Africa and Africans than all the Western environmentalists put together. That is one of the lessons that needs to be learned.

[Steve Jones]

May 10, 2013 at 4:59 PM | Heide de Klein

A perfect description of our opinionated, adulterous, heir to the throne. Would you mind if I used it in conversation?

[Paul Matthews]

"It's a must-read" is an over-used phrase but here it's appropriate, from the beginning
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
to the middle
"The first one is rehabilitating environmentalism. Like every global warming skeptic out there whom I’ve ever talked with, I was and still am an old-fashioned environmentalist"
and the end
"The alarmists signally never ever came close to proving their case, and for me that was science at its glorious best".

[JFB]

Worst: they are doing all this and, later, are blaming global warming/climate change...

[Phillip Bratby]

When the Augean Stables of the Met Office are cleaned out, then I'll know we have won. I having nothing but contempt for the Met Office employees. They take tax-payers' money and use it to destroy this country. Us taxpayers freely devote our lives and money to fighting the Met Office' BS "science" and all the renewables cr@p that follows in its wake. Think of the future generations of this country. At the moment they have a future of misery, thanks to the Met Office at al.

[WAM]

You keep the 3rd world in the sad state of poverty, corruption and lack of everything and you get cheap resources. You even don't care about cheap labour - you send expats and import some day labourers.

When the political stability, education and wealth appear then you cannot count on big profits - you would have to share them with natives.

You install your puppet governments, or deal with some warlords, and you are free to make big bucks. Of course you are not Joe Smith - you are Big Corporation, with your symbiotic lobbyists and establishment.
Happened in 19. century ('Kill all the beasts"), happens now in North Africa for example.

[Mike Jackson]

I agree with Paul Matthews. Though "must read" is much over-used, here it applies in spades! And much of Pointman's other posts warrant the same description.
Just how we restore common sense to western politics and environmental policy is another matter. I don't see any of the current crop of politicos anywhere in the western world with the foresight, integrity or courage even to make a start.
Where are the statesmen when you need them?

[Dr K.A. Rodgers]

I am a country boy. I grew up in family that taught me not only to love nature but that I was part of it.

Over the past decade I have been hoping I might live long enough to see where this latest saga of mankind's capacity for self-delusion might lead. Having got part way through 'The Age of Global Warming', I am not that sure I am going to make it. There are just too many damn political egos involved that will need to be assuaged.

I can't yet share Pointman's optimism. He cites that wonderful book: 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds'. One of the primary examples in that book is of John Law and how his ideas destroyed 18th century France when they were allowed to run unchecked. I can but hope and pray that the west, at least, does not have to experience what France endured to get over its relaziation of what Law had wrought. Yet I can conceive it as a possibility. Think Hari Seldon.

[Jimmy Haigh.]

May 10, 2013 at 4:59 PM | Heide de Klein

A perfect description of our opinionated, adulterous, heir to the throne. Would you mind if I used it in conversation?

May 10, 2013 at 5:31 PM | Unregistered CommenterSteve Jones

I agree. Heidi - superb!

[alex]

Your Grace,

Your blog and Pointman's are top on my list of bookmarks. When the AGW post mortem is written, your and Pointman's blogs will be referenced quite a bit, me thinks.

[Richard Drake]

Brilliant. As I said earlier to John Shade, Pointman talks, bullshit walks.

As to whether he's too optimistic, we won't know for a decade or two. But he's just made a positive outcome much more likely, just by spelling out exactly what it would mean. And by providing the perfect slogan.

People first, planet second.

I think I can master that.

[Phillip Bratby]

People first, planet second

As someone else said:

Friends of the Earth, Enemies of Humanity

[Entropic Man]

And if we carry on with Business as Usual?

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/05/1940521/into-the-valley-of-death-rode-the-600-into-the-valley-of-400-ppm-road-the-7-billion/

[Noblesse Oblige]

This fellow writes with fire and brimstone... and appropriately so.

[Patagon]

Atheists of all religions have a hard time understanding believers, mainly because they are not understandable. I just worry, are we congratulating ourselves a bit too early?

[Don Keiller]

I think Green politicians and troughers are moving towards their "let them eat cake" moment.

And we all know what came next :-)

[peterwalsh]

Think Hari Seldon.
May 10, 2013 at 6:07 PM | Unregistered CommenterDr K.A. Rodgers

Dr Rogers

I too am a great fan of Isaac Asimov books and have read his books on Trantor etc on many occasions. His Foundation Trilogy (ultimately comprising 6 books as far as I am aware yeah 6!!) from "Foundation" through "Foundation and Earth are great reads and they are on my bookshelves just to my left.

I also absolutely love Pointman and his beautifully written English and his comments.

[Don Keiller]

Here are a few predictions from Earth Day 1970'. Most extrapolated population against a static food supply and came to dire conclusions that weren't borne out.
Change "cooling" for "warming" and it all sounds rather familiar. Even some of the names- like that serial failure Paul Ehrlich.

"Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind." — Harvard biologist George Wald
"We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation." — Washington University biologist Barry Commoner
"Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction." — New York Times editorial
"Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years." — Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich
"Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born… [By 1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s." — Paul Ehrlich
"It is already too late to avoid mass starvation," — Denis Hayes, Chief organizer for Earth Day
"Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions…. By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine." — North Texas State University professor Peter Gunter
"In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution… by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half." — Life magazine
"At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it's only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable." — Ecologist Kenneth Watt
"Air pollution...is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone." — Paul Ehrlich
"By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate… that there won't be any more crude oil. You'll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill 'er up, buddy,' and he'll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn't any.'" — Ecologist Kenneth Watt
"[One] theory assumes that the earth's cloud cover will continue to thicken as more dust, fumes, and water vapor are belched into the atmosphere by industrial smokestacks and jet planes. Screened from the sun's heat, the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born." — Newsweek magazine
"The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age." — Kenneth Watt

[Drapetomania]

"Refuse to let the developing world have access to better GM seeds, and let the crops fail."

Yep..crops were always failing before GM.
Anyone for Golden Rice..
And those amazing non failing gm crops sure hit the headlines all the time.
Hilarious..

[SimonW]

I've been following Pointman for a few years now, I think since his Climategate investigations. He's an absolute star and wasted in that little backwater of his. How come the MSM have such low calibre people churning out garbage when there are such telented folk out there. There's a recruitment failure somewhere along the line.

It is well worth the effort to trawl through Pointman's old posts.

[MikeH]

Bjorn Lombourg blazed this trail with his book "Cool It" back in 2007.
His basic tenet was that we should not waste resources on fruitless efforts to reduce CO2 emissions but concentrate them on bringing less-developed nations up the curve as fast as possible. With prosperity comes lower birthrates, taking the pressure off commodities and allowing much greater resilience to changes of all sorts. He also advocated high investment in R&D for energy and in mitigation measures for whatever climate may throw at us in future.
Smart man, thinking way ahead.

[pesadia]

Dr K A Rogers
"Think Hari Seldon"
There are so many parallels to the original trilogy (foundation, foundation and empire and second foundation).
Hopefully we are experiencing the final "Seldon Crisis" and the era of the second foundation is just around the corner.

[Entropic Man]

Nope. We're still on pre-Seldon Trantor.

[Heide de Klein]

A message to homeopathy advocating defender of faiths:

“I want to be reincarnated as a tampon and live inside your trousers forever.”

May your wishes be granted. Failing that, may you find refuge a short distance away in a nearby orifice as a suppository.

Poor people can't afford "Duchy Originals", so what is the point of them?

[steveta_uk]

Pesadia, who was the Mule?

[Peter Crawford]

Yes Pointman is a good read but I don't share his optimism. I am a gloomy old git.

@Heidi - Prince Charles's not particularly good sausages are only £375 each which I think is rockin' royal value for idiots and his gritty little biscuits (only four-and-half-thousand pounds for a packet of six) are ideal dog food.. I don't know if they do 'Duchy Original' tampons but if they do I bet they're over-packaged.

[Rick Bradford]

One point about the hardened Green view of the world is that it draws very heavily on an earlier worldview, which psychologists call Purposeful/Authoritarian. This is referred to as 'Blue' in the Spiral Dynamics classification.

Here are the elements of Blue:

Basic theme: Life has meaning, direction, and purpose with predetermined outcomes
One sacrifices self to the transcendent Cause, Truth, or righteous Pathway
The Order enforces a code of conduct based on eternal, absolute principles
Righteous living produces stability now and guarantees future reward
Impulsivity is controlled through guilt; everybody has their proper place
Laws, regulations, and discipline build character and moral fibre

Many governments round the world still pursue Blue policies; in the West, its values are kept alive and nurtured by the Green/Left movement.

It helps explain why many of their actions resemble stuff you would expect to emanate from Pyongyang government circles.

[Hilary Ostrov]

May 10, 2013 at 5:34 PM | Paul Matthews

[From Pointman's quote of Mackay's]:

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

Indeed. And (believe it or not!) as long ago (and far away!) as December 2009, this eloquent phrasing resonated with me when I first read it in a post by Martin Cohen in a (then) recent Times Higher Education piece. At that time, Cohen, a self-described "environmental activist" had a book in progress, with the provisional working title of Climate, Chaos and Irrationality: How the Green Agenda Was Hijacked by Global Warming Theorists.

As I had written in Delusions of climate modellers and the madness of crowds, citing excerpts from Cohen's article:

[Cohen:]

Beyond Debate?

Is belief in global-warming science another example of the “madness of crowds”? That strange but powerful social phenomenon, first described by Charles Mackay in 1841, turns a widely shared prejudice into an irresistible “authority”. Could it indeed represent the final triumph of irrationality? After all, how rational is it to pass laws banning one kind of light bulb (and insisting on their replacement by ones filled with poisonous mercury vapour) in order to “save electricity”, while ploughing money into schemes to run cars on … electricity? How rational is it to pay the Russians once for fossil fuels, and a second time for permission (via carbon credits) to burn them (see box page 36)? And how rational is it to suppose that the effects of increased CO2 in the atmosphere take between 200 and 1,000 years to be felt, but that solutions can take effect almost instantaneously?

Whether rational or not, global warming theory has become a political orthodoxy. So entrenched is it that those showing any resistance to it are described as “heretics” or even likened to “Holocaust deniers”.

[...]

The fact is, the IPCC report’s statement quoted above is speculation and fear-mongering. So how did such language get in the report? Alas, it seems that the social and scientific reality is as Feyerabend describes, and that the language of fear has now “penetrated the most common idiom and infected all modes of thinking”.
[...]
Today, global-warming “deniers” have all been told they must fall into line with “the science”. But this is not science, this is propaganda. [...]

[Ostrov:]

My sentiments, exactly! There are a good number of (good!) comments following Cohen’s essay; however, while the level of discourse was more elevated than one is likely to find on a typical media blog, the alarmists contributed little except dismissive, demeaning demonization of anyone who does not fall into line. I wonder if they realized how clearly they were making Cohen’s case for him!

But, as a long-time admirer of Pointman's way with words, I would certainly add my voice to the chorus of "For he's a jolly good blogger ... and so say all of us"!

To a great extent, I do share the optimism of Pointman's current offering. But - in no small measure thanks to the "contributions" of the proliferation of green NGOs to the EU "sandbox" and the UN bigtime "global" fear-machine - there are other fears being nurtured and developed at many other UN "convention" tables. (See, for example, my recent Of word salads and firebrands on the UN waterfront - and Alex Cull's subsequent research as noted in his comment on that post)

That being said, perhaps the "tipping point" of diminishing returns in the land of the "planet first, people last green dreamers" has been reached, and their (unstated) motto of "never enough" has led them to cross a bridge too far!

[Richard Drake]

That tipping point point is I think right, Hilary. And very importantly so.

[Hilary Ostrov]

Ah, but if it should turn out to be so, Richard, I wonder how they will choose to ... uh ... hide the decline ;-)

[geronimo]

"Ah, but if it should turn out to be so, Richard, I wonder how they will choose to ... uh ... hide the decline ;-"

Hilary, I'm not so optimistic there are too many people in powerful positions who stand to make money/have committed themselves totally to this scam. They won't be anxious to suffer the embarrassment of being totaly wrong/losing vast quantities of money and it is difficult to conceive how they can get out of the predicament without losing money/ being humiliated. They will fight to the last man/woman, and will the damage they've already done is enshrined in legislation which won't be easily reversed. We need a Maggie Thatcher, and unfortunately leaders like her aren't thick on the ground.

Much as I dislike it I believe the only hope is UKIP, if they do well in next year's EU elections and there is the threat of troughers losing their seats in the general elections then their most popular policies will be triangulated. Of course the politicos can always blame their advisers in the scientific community, but it's going to be difficult for Dave (Greenest government ever) and Ed (Climate Change Act) Miliband to retreat from their positions.

[GrantB]

Heidi de Klein and others - some years ago I and a majority of Australians voted against becoming a republic. The monarchy and Governor General are non-invasive, arms length and if it aint broke, why fix it. However some time in the future EIIR will, as all of us will, fall off the perch. If the tree hugging dauphin who speaks with plants steps up to take over the rei(g)ns my views will change. Many others as well.

If the monarchy wants a continuing role in Australia, it could do worse than skip a generation.

[Steve Jones]

May 10, 2013 at 10:59 PM | Drapetomania

You have completely missed the point of the original comment.

[Radical Rodent]

Dear Charles-bashers,

Please bear in mind that your view of the Prince of Wales is through the lens of the MSM. They have long disliked him, enraptured as they were by his first wife. For your self-proclaimed scientific minds to reach such judgment on what is very dodgy evidence from a source that you know is very suspect on matters about which you have more knowledge might help you realise how so many have been suckered into being AGWists. This looks to be a good example of what Michael Crichton described as “the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect”.

Now, return to the topic, children!

[GrantB]

Radical Rodent - I'm not a Charles basher and my opinions are not from the MSM. Rather they are from videos of what he has actually said. He's an eco-loon pure and simple. I'm not anti the monarchy, I hope the Queen keeps going for a long while yet. Then William (Harry would be better but things don't work that way), but Charles, NO. Not in the land of a thousand arseholes.

Imagine the hand wringing, knuckle cracking, climate change BS we would have to put up with if he was sitting in the seat. I couldn't see Pointman getting a knighthood.

[Steve Jones]

May 11, 2013 at 9:13 AM | Radical Rodent

Would that be the same MSM that has championed the AGW scam so effectively? As Grant B has said, some of us view the evidence for ourselves before drawing conclusions.

[Mike Jackson]

I don't hold any brief for Charlie but I think you will find when the time comes he will be as impeccably neutral as his mother has been.
There is a well-established tradition of the heir to the throne chafing at the bit about having to hang around doing nothing for far too long; when it comes to the crunch they know how they are expected to behave. Don't give up on him yet.

[Heide de Klein]

I apologise to any sycophants I may have offended by referring to our tampon-dreaming future king in non-deferential terms. Let us hope that when he ascends to the throne he becomes as useful as his mother, and achieves similar similar levels of adoration, so that the royalists are still able to gratify themselves at the thought of his majesty.

But in the meantime, anyone who advocates homeopathy while referring to the climate as a "sick patient" deserves every syllable of ridicule, particularly as he is a hypocrite.

Well maybe he's not a total hypocrite as at least one of his sons has done his bit in reducing the world's population.

[GrantB]

Mike Jackson - I hope you're right. But. leopard. spots etc. It's O/T so I'll leave it at that even though the well known German sceptic, Heidi de Klein said much stronger things in the first comment in this thread.

[Hilary Ostrov]

May 11, 2013 at 6:55 AM | geronimo

Hilary, I'm not so optimistic [...]

You're less optimistic than I?! Surely not!

As an expat (thanks to my parents' decision to leave no child behind when they opted to emigrate to Canada) long before I was eligible to vote, I appreciate your views.

And given what I've read, if I were still in the U.K. (assuming that there would be a UKIP candidate in Llanelly - my family's last port of U.K. call prior to setting sail for one of the "colonies") that's where I'd cast my vote.

But at least you have a UKIP option.

There's a provincial election coming up on May 14 here in Beautiful British Columbia (where I've resided for the better part of the last 23 years) in which - as an aside - IPCC's AR5 Lead Author, Andrew Weaver is running as a Green Party candidate because (I kid you not) he's "a scientist" (and according to the CBC - our equivalent green-heart-on-sleeve imitator of the BBC - a "Nobel-winning climate scientist")

But the province of Ontario (with the greatest concentration of voters) has been afflicted with its own "Climate Change Act" (as we have in BC, but not to the same landscape-blighting, budget-busting, credibility-devastating extent - so far)

You say that you [in the UK] need a Maggie Thatcher. I agree. And perhaps the "optimism" you see in my observations is somewhat coloured by my perception that our current PM, Stephen Harper, is very much rooted in his "call a spade a spade" that we (or at least I) have come to depend on when and where it counts.

Unfortunately, (particularly here in BC) for a variety of reasons (which would require a virtual book, let alone a blogpost or comment) Harper can do nothing to change the mendacity and mediocrity that is epitomized by the likes of Weaver's candidacy.

[Martin A]

For your self-proclaimed scientific minds to reach such judgment on what is very dodgy evidence from a source that you know is very suspect on matters about which you have more knowledge might help you realise how so many have been suckered into being AGWists. ...
May 11, 2013 at 9:13 AM Radical Rodent

RR ...

[1] Does the MSM *invent* what the heir is reported to say?
[2] Have you ever been involved in an occasion where he has paid an official visit and witnessed the stage management?

[RoyFOMR]

I think it's becoming clear that Prime Charles, the Duke of Cornwall, is a fanatical environmentalist impervious to common sense and logic who will disregard any evidence that challenges his Green fundamentalist dogma.
That's not the reason why I detest him. It's the spite and unpleasantness of character that he displays when attacking any who oppose his cherished views that bodes badly for the future monarchy.
(BH and Daily Mail readers are advised that the fact that Truro is a town in Cornwall is purely coincidental)

[sherlock1]

In the meantime, the BBC's website has a major feature today about the fact that CO2 levels in Hawaii have gone over 400ppm...
Worryingly, most of the posts seem to be of the 'There you are, we've got to do something..' school. So - he's right: 'Men go mad in herds...'

[Noblesse Oblige]

@RoyFOMR
With a little luck you folks will skip Charlie and go straight to Harry. On the other hand, maybe the reign of King Charles will finally put an end to it.

[flaxdoctor]

RoyFOMR,

Truro a mere town? How dare you!

Noblesse Oblige,

Yep, would be good to finish the job that Charlie I made such a promising start on.

[Steve Jones]

I think we should all follow Prince Charles' example and lead equally sustainable lives. I believe his fleet of Bentleys can achieve up to 18 mpg. Maybe they run on biofuel.

[Martin A]

I thought he drove an Aston Martin.

I believe he has people who create bio fuel for it, so that's alright.

[Matt]

QUOTE The environmental movement has only itself to blame, and like a lot of people who actively supported its genesis, I must take my fair share of blame. We took our eye off it and allowed it to be hijacked by the gangrenous and rotting stump of left of centre western political extremism in the aftermath of the collapse of soviet communism. Once they’d done that, it was easy to suck in the fashionable but feckless sons and daughters of the well-to-do middle classes, especially in the midst of an unusually long economic boom. Just dangle a righteous cause in front of their noses, in just the right way, to give their lives some shadow of a grand mission, and leave the rest to their youthful enthusiasm and entitled nature. QUOTE

I have rarely read such an angry sulphurous coruscating piece of writing. Brilliant stuff