Bishop Hill Reactions to low climate sensitivity
Dec 20, 2012 Climate: sensitivity Apart from the Judith Curry piece, which I linked to yesterday, there have been a few others interested in what Lewis has to say.
Tim Worstall covered the story twice - once at his own blog, where the comments thread was quickly overwhelmed by the rantings and ravings of a well-known green, and once at Forbes.
Meanwhile, at Reason magazine, Ronald Bailey gave the story another airing.
My impression is that people are still trying to work out what to say. I think we will hear more in the coming days.
Bishop Hill
James Annan, a specialist in climate sensitivity, says this:
I think a lot of what Nic Lewis says seems reasonable, though I also suspect that some of his choices will have served to underestimate sensitivity somewhat. Don't forget, "the ipcc" does no research to estimate sensitivity, they only summarise the literature which generally lags the latest evidence.
Reader Comments (35)
The rants from Connolley on Tim's blog are almost unbelievable - is this in fact someone spoofing him, or is he really that unstable?
He's an ego, that's all. Talking about him anywhere at all is giving him the oxygen he craves.
Actually, Connolley is hilarious. He fails totally to realise that his behaviour is about as counter-productive as it could be and anyone could be forgiven for thinking he is unstable.
I wouldn't be looking to buy a box of matches from him, let alone a computer model.
I wonder if he and Mann are twins?
The diehards will get ever more hysterical while the data continues against them.
Look at it this way: Climate science is new, unproven, and is highly criticised in many quarters, including by other more established sciences. It feels vulnerable. He was a very small cog on a small part of a climate science project in this very small unrespected area of Science. Vulnerable squared. They are used to coming out guns blazing.
Connolly seems to be backed by one johnB..... I suspect by the time things fall apart completely, he will be in barking hysterics, slamming his fists on the keyboard, as each piece of IPCC propaganda is whittled away.
I exercise the precautionary principle: if in doubt, disagree with Connolley.
It’s rarely wise to agree with anyone who may be this person:
http://vademecum.brandenberger.eu/grafiken/klima/connolley.jpg
Any middle-aged man who thinks a pony tail a good look has judgement so poor I’d feel uncomfortable agreeing with him. About anything.
Dr William Connolley is demonstrating the kind of debating techniques alarmists have been using for years:
Demean and insult people
Make staements rather than arguments
Refer to Journals noted for a particualr bias
Spend time surpressing any dissenting voices - e.g. Wikipedia
Let him rant so that like Climategate, the public can see the real face of the religious proponents of CAGW.
J4R
a MAMWAPT already!
If people enjoy arguing about things they don't understand, then fair enough. However, putting numbers on climate sensitivity is like scoring 10 own goals in the first ten minutes of a football match. They have the credibility.
Brian Cox was right. Only models can predict the future of a complex system. There is nothing wrong with climate science per se, only when it interferes in politics.
I am taking my cue from Freeman Dyson, Ivar Giaever, James Lovelock and a host of qualified Guardian readers before tabloid George Monbiot moved in.
climate models in politics - bollocks
proxies in politics - bollocks
MAMWAPT...(works it out)...excellent, needs wider use!
‘My impression is that people are still trying to work out what to say. I think we will hear more in the coming days.’
Bish as I have said before, it will take a long time and an enormous effort to stop the supertanker that is AGW scientology. Those of us that truly believe in science know that science will triumph in the end. No matter how long it takes. The rantings of non-entities like Connelley can only help our cause. He is obviously not quite bright enough to see that.
It would be interesting if we could get some input from Richard Betts. I note that in a comment on Tim Worstall’s blog, Matt Ridley makes reference to Richard Betts agreeing that Nic Lewis has made out a good case. Anyone seen that?
Surely a MAMWAPT can be no worse than a MAMWAW?
Sorry to stray entirely off topic.
Isn't a MAMWACO even worse than a MAMWAW?
The amount we've already heard, since Ridley's Wall Street Journal article, is a very welcome Christmas present. At last climate sensitivity is being seen as the crucial piece it is in the IPCC argument. Very well done, Nic.
That the debate about climate sensitivity has begun to permeate into the wider media is very welcome. It will be interesting to see how the IPCC handles this. Nic Lewis' contribution and the debate about solar modulation of GCR's and other possible TSI amplification mechanisms that has been provoked by Rawl's posting of the SOD may well prove to be a turning point.
I think it will be harder for the IPCC to ignore some of the extant studies and their implications for climate sensitivity.
The comment by Matt Ridley on Tim's blog mentioned by Dolphinhead is number 55 and well worth reading. So are his follow-ups in 68, 73 and 78. Ben Pile also gives convincing evidence of Connolley's inconsistency in 74
I wish I could find the posting here where I went through the back-of-envelope energy flux calcs (justifying why I am a lukewarmer either to RKS or Dung) and came up with a climate sensitivity not a million miles away from this figure :)
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But they can't, and that is the point. Cox deals with physics, which although complex, has an easier time isolating individual variables and playing with them by experiment. He doesn't seem to realise that this simplicity does not carry over into weather/climate, because not only are many of the variables unknown, those that are known aren't measurable to any great degree of accuracy.
Robinson
Why pick on me :-))
I totally agree with you. I have never said anything else. Cox is right in principle. However, any scientist will tell you that the climate is far too complex to model to the accuracy that would allow temperature forecasts. That is what annoys me about Ridley and his sensitivity.
Dolphinhead @12:36, Richard Betts had a cautious but basically positive comment about Nic Lewis's derivation of climate sensitivity here on the post with Nic's calculations.
It turns out that Nic had an abridged version of his calculation back on the Quantifying Uncertainties thread some weeks ago, see his comment here. Richard Betts was involved in that thread also, and responded to Nic e.g. here, which led to this reply by Nic.
Jeremy Harvey
thank you for the various references. A couple of comments
1. I am pleased to note that Richard Betts' response is a little more civilised than Connolley
2. But I fear his faith in models is sadly misplaced.
The reason why the models fail is because they have in them 7 physics' mistakes, the worst of which is a claim, from meteorology, that single pyrgeometers measure a real energy flux instead of the S-B temperature signal. This makes the boundary conditions wrong.. Cox is too poor a physicist to realise these errors exits - too little experience of real world physics methinks!
esmiff:
This ability to be annoyed by Ridley and his sensitivity is hilarious. The whole of the IPCC narrative is based on sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 (or equivalent GHGs). It's their idea of sensitivity that is being questioned and it's Nic Lewis that is doing it, as his friend Matt Ridley makes clear. If you don't think this is important you inhabit a different world from me but it's also fine. But why on earth should any sceptic be annoyed?
After examining samples returned from the Moon scientists agree that the surfaces of the Moon and Earth are composed of identical material. Without atmosphere [including oceans of course] surface albedo would be identical.
Both Moon and Earth, because of their distance from the Sun, are subject to identical insolation in terms of Wm^2.
The NASA Lunar Diviner probe has made multiple empirical measurements of the Moons complete surface and shows the mean Lunar surface temperature to be 197K.
Without the addition of atmosphere the Earth's mean surface temperature would also be 197K - no need to revert to theoretical SB calculations and black body assumptions, the actual measurements have been made for us by Lunar Diviner.
This means that our atmosphere must be responsible for a mean surface temperature rise of 91K in order to reach the universally agreed surface temperature of 288K - not the 33K those who constantly refer to the contribution of GHE's claim for atmospheric contribution.
Which, of course, brings into question any claimed contribution of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration on global mean surface temperature.
The only researched and quantified contribution of atmosphere on global temperature has been that of applying the Ideal Gas Laws and insolation [familiar to those educated before the popularity of 'back radiation']- Nikolov and Zeller being one example using empirically derived data from other atmospheric bodies within the Solar System.
GHE contributions have so far been based on matching CO2 rise with temperature increase and twiddling and fiddling with the correlation - merely an exercise in 'proving' an hypothesis rather than base theories on sound empirically derived data.
That's my contribution for now, I'll revert to spectator role to continue watching this interesting discussion.
RKS: there is a GHE because by reducing surface emissivity, GHGs increase the impedance for the transfer to the atmosphere and space of the 160 W/m^2 average solar warming of the surface. If's far less than the 33 k figure. As for the 197 K average temperature of the Moon, yes it's true. The Flat Disc Model in climate science is an over-simplification.
Looks like timworstall.com is unavailable?
There is a chain reaction around the World as the MSM focuses on the AR5 revelations and decides the IPCC claims are wrong, also any competent person working in the area is formulating an escape plan, and the best is to write the truth which is that you always had doubts!
Mildly pissed off at being proved wrong, perhaps. Less than wholly delighted at having to take a second look at his interpretation of the data, maybe. But "annoyed"? Because someone has seen fit to come up with different results? Surely not.
wow...is Annan going to get spanked tonight!
Connolley was bashing people over their spelling while buggering up his own grammar, sure sign he was angry.
The fury my article has unleashed is remarkable to behold. However, very little of it addresses the argument itself. Most commentators are content to stick to the Lysenko line rather than discuss the science I raised: ie, I should not have been allowed to say what I said.
A few have complained that I confuse water wapour and clouds, to which I respond that the atmosphere does the same -- ie any increase in water vapour may cause a change in cloud density or extent which may or may not negate any warming effect from water vapour or indeed negate any increase in water vapour itself by causing rain.
One complaint, that my wording implies that water vapour may not be a greenhouse gas at all, is half fair. It's not what I think but you could read it into one sentence of the piece as a result of editing. that's a pity.
However, on the main points I made:
- that new estimates of aerosol cooling are low
- that new estimates of Ocean heat uptake are low
- that therefore observational estimates of climate sensitivity may prove low
- that observational estimates are now good enough that they should be preferred over models
- that warming below 2C is net beneficial
on these, nobody has said anything to dent Nic's argument.
Matt Ridley:
The Lysenko line. Didn't that go all the way to Magadan and the most deadly camps of the Gulag?
If I come across all effusive I apologise but it's clear you did a great thing with this piece, if our latter-day Lysenkos choked so hard on their cornflakes as they read it. Though Lindzen has often written of the aerosol anomaly (including IIRC in the WSJ) the temerity of an outsider like Nic Lewis calling the climate establishment to account, with more detail ready on BH and WUWT, is a particularly powerful thing. The blogosphere bites back but all kudos to the Murdoch press too. And thank you.
J4R
Not only a MAMWAPT but also with a furry toy in his bag.
There was another interesting estimate of climate sensitivity from James (as quoted) and Jules here
http://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/can-last-glacial-maximum-constrain.html