Saturday
Mar052011
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Things can only get dearer
Mar 5, 2011 Energy Also in Standpoint, a look at Britain's energy policies.
In private, the best-informed analysts now agree that Britain's environmental policies have put the country on track to have the world's most expensive electricity.
It feels to me like we are heading for crunch time.
Reader Comments (58)
You do not need to be a genius to understand that featherbedding of anything is in the long run counter-productive. I am not normally naive but I really do fail to comprehend the obsession with wind as a form of electricity generation and the wilful blindness to the consequences of over-reliance on it.
It is quite obvious (as it should have been at the time) that the enviro-fanatics (Goldsmith, Porritt et al) saw Cameron as a soft touch, which he turned out to be. But he is supposedly surrounded by civil servants whose training and thought processes would normally have almost compelled them to "take him outside and explain matters to him".
Whether they have become so emasculated or politicised by 13 years of NuLab idiocies I don't know but I feel more than a little let down by the bureaucrats whose job it is to make sure that our politicians don't make total fools of themselves and ruin the country in the process.
Sadly I felt no option but to get out. I have spent the last few years bemoaning the fact that none of my children have been inspired to continue the family line. No longer. I have no come to the belief that, by accident or design, they have come to the right decision. I see no future (other than a third world one) for Britain unless there is some major change of thinking in the very, very near future.
The eco-luddites will have won and that in itself is a cause for deep depression. Hopefully other countries can learn from our mistakes.
The renewable developers are really heady for a crunch. Almost daily the "science" of global warming is being chipped away at as the real facts like no temperature rise tell another story; The public willingness to hand out bigger and bigger shares of their income to salve their conscience is now seen as a luxury that can easily be cut, the lies about renewables jobs have now been shown to be just that and we are now on the verge of electricity blackouts as a result of a complete failure to face up to the real implications of the policy (but that's true of all green policies)
The green parties (Green + Lib Dem) are going to be slaughtered at the coming Scottish election and I doubt that any party is going to find any good words for the policy of littering the countryside with bird mincers.
What we really need is some new political party for common sense, not for "UK" common sense but for SCOTTISH common sense, and sometimes the only way I can see to do that is for someone to create a new party and raise the money to stand candidates.
Today's NETA tables - proportion of demand being met by wind energy - 0.4%...
When ARE the politicians going to 'get' it..??
The Socialist Republic of Vietnam has more nuclear plants planned or proposed than the UK, as of Mar 2011.
Looking at that fact from here in the USA, it is quite alarming.
Not that our own situation is much better, due entirely and 100 percent to the environmental lobbies.
China has 27 reactors under construction and 160 planned and proposed. The USA has *1* reactor under construction and only 32 planned or proposed.
I think it's fair to call this a self-inflicted devolution to third-work status for both countries.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html
Australia has sky-rocketing electricity prices - sometimes double or triple in a couple of years. The excuses are varied.
- Ageing infrastructure requires massive investment
- Government subsidies are being reduced
- Carbon price uncertainty has forced the price up.
Of the last. This is one of the more hypocritical reasons. 'Carbon price uncertainty' is a direct result of the Government mooting a carbon price and then using soaring electricity prices to claim it must set a carbon price to reduce market uncertainty.
If it set a price of $0 it might make sense. Anthing more than that is an idealogical grab.
The green parties (Green + Lib Dem) are going to be slaughtered at the coming Scottish election and I doubt that any party is going to find any good words for the policy of littering the countryside with bird mincers.
You can include the SNP, Liebour and the Cons too as following the same policies, so exactly who do you vote for if you are against this madness ?
You can monitor the current (updated every 5 minutes) energy generation sources in the UK using a nifty free app for iPhone. Search for "gridcarbon" in iTunes.
Right now, as David says above, wind is producing only 0.4%. That's fairly typical. I've never seen it exceed 1%.
If the government really is serious about achieving 30% of the UK's energy from renewables by 2120, they'd better get building a lot more windmills pretty fast – and hope the wind blows a bit harder.
A touch of realism from the political classes would be welcome. Some hope!
As Ian Dury once wrote; "there are reasons to be cheerful" or a least a bit more optimistic. Although we may be heading into brownouts and widespread electricity cuts, it'll be a tough job for any politician to explain to the general public why it's only happening in the UK and not to every other country across Europe. Credulity and indifference to the approaching crisis will only last until the lights start going out. No amount of presentation will get them around that question. An electorate sitting in the darkness is an electorate who will vote for the first person who promises to get the lights working again and screw the environment.
The Greens in Ireland have just been eviscerated as a political force, losing all their 6 seats in the Parliament. If you look carefully at the political landscape here, you can also see a general disenchantment with them, their strident demands and their political importance. Things can only get worse for them and and policy fellow travellers as the recession really bites, which it hasn't really done yet.
Pointman
John Constable is Policy Director of the Renewable Energy Foundation. REF produces excellent independent reports and has an excellent Technical Advisory Group. Check them out at http://www.ref.org.uk/foundation. In contrast, the Government's technical advisors consist of green idealists who live on a different planet from the one we mere mortals inhabit.
breath of fresh air. Is there no UKIP presence in Scotland?
When the transition to windmills is complete, the UK won't be able to afford Trident missiles. So, there are indeed reasons to be cheerful.
Something we might be hearing more about in the months and years ahead - TEQs, or Tradable Energy Quotas, aka carbon ration books. David Miliband gave the idea some publicity back in 2006, I believe, then it seemed to go on the back burner, but now it could be creeping back:
http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/national-news/121801-uk-urged-to-ration-energy-to-hit-carbon-reduction-targets.html
"The cross-party committee suggests the nation's adult population would each be granted an equal free quota of energy units, which would be traded in every time gas and electricity was purchased and even when filling the car with petrol.
Under the Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) scheme, the amount every adult received would be equal but not necessarily enough to meet their needs - forcing people to directly think about their energy use.
Remaining units would be free to be bought and sold, while businesses and Government would have to buy their units in a regular auction which would generate money to help fund the transition to a low-carbon economy."
If you read the article, you will find some all too familiar names - Caroline Lucas, Jeremy Leggett, Tim Yeo, Jonathon Porritt...
This is worth looking into, as well: the website of the Lean Energy Connection (originators of the TEQ concept):
http://www.theleaneconomyconnection.net/
Also this: http://www.feasta.org/documents/review2/fleming.htm
And this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tradable_Energy_Quotas
Under the scheme, "the amount every adult received would be equal but not necessarily enough to meet their needs". Something tells me that this will be spun as something that encourages "fairness". My feeling is that it will be unpopular as hell - rightly so - and another incentive to bring us all out into the streets to protest (finally.)
It could be worse. In Germany, from the GWPF http://thegwpf.org/international-news/2586-eu-energy-commissioner-warns-of-de-industrialization.html
UKIP in Scotland are an also ran, they are asking only for a Regional list vote.
http://www.ukip.org/scotland/page/28-the-scottish-election-2011
So we need an energy party.
Reify energy. Make it real and understandable (is that a word?)
It is interesting that there is much belly-aching about liberals ruining our energy system without a direct positive alternative being positioned ...
Energy security can be positive and directed to intelligent people.
Enviro/green's have won and hold the high ground by talking about energy, but they flatter actors and talk down to the rest
Isn't it about time we told the truth...?
Anyone spot the troll trying to get us off topic?
Pointman
Mike Haseler
I wish I could agree with you. I lived in Scotland for 40 years and the saying that a rubber duck would get elected if you put a red rosette on it still holds true. The SNP is a combination of protest vote and where those who would otherwise normally vote Tory go to limit the damage Labour do. They don't know from a hole in the head about carbon or climate change. They see the energy prices go up and blame the companies who tell them it's all to do with the oil price or the wholesale gas price. Never do they say that government policy and subsidising wind farms is at least part of the reason. The customer is figuratively in the dark and on the point of becoming literally in the dark.
Let me give you an analogy. A couple of years ago the Pope "liberated" the old Tridentine Mass and said that any priest that wanted to celebrate it could do so. Most bishops immediately put up the shutters, made sure nobody was officially informed about this and then hunkered down and waited fcor business as usual to resume.
As somebody put it the other day: Don't tell anyone about it: if anyone asks say 'no': then tell the Pope no-one wants it.
I see more than a slight resemblance to the present political situation. Sorry if I come across as disillusioned. Actually I'm usually optimistic but not on this subject, I'm afraid.
As David and Scottie have pointed out, wind makes an insignificant contribution to total UK energy (the iPhone App currently has it at 0.6%). So what's the basis for Standpoint's comment (in its excellent and frightening article) that
Can that be correct? Or are things even worse than they thought?
One thing you can do is to write to your MP telling him politely that if he is not careful and continues to allow Huhne to waste our money on this scale, he will share the fate of the Lib Dem candidate at Barnsley .
You can also try writing to Lord Marland on "They work for you". I tried this but Marland most certainly does not work for me and completely ignored my letter. Perhaps if he got a lot of letters he might begin to get the message
"Breath of Fresh Air" is unfortunately right. UKIP (for whatever the reason) has very little support in Scotland. However as the Barnsley by election shows UKIP is now beginning to do OK in the rest of the UK This includes Wales where it is surprisingly active and even Northern Ireland.
One thing you can do is to write to your MP telling him politely that if he is not careful and continues to allow Huhne to waste our money on this scale, he will share the fate of the Lib Dem candidate at Barnsley .
You can also try writing to Lord Marland on "They work for you". I tried this but Marland most certainly does not work for me and completely ignored my letter. Perhaps if he got a lot of letters he might begin to get the message
"Breath of Fresh Air" is unfortunately right. UKIP (for whatever the reason) has very little support in Scotland. However as the Barnsley by election shows UKIP is now beginning to do OK in the rest of the UK This includes Wales where it is surprisingly active and even Northern Ireland.
From Standpoint
Now that's the bit of the case against wind/renewables that doesn't get enough airtime IMO. By locking us into a policy which subsidises renewables, the government (or its green advisers) have ensured that investment in conventional generation for the UK is strongly discouraged.
The game is, as always, rigged.
Mar 5, 2011 at 4:30 PM | Robin Guenier
"Britain is obtaining only a fraction of its electricity from renewable sources, just under 7 per cent in 2009-2010
Can that be correct? Or are things even worse than they thought?"
It is correct that the total number of half hour periods in the whole of 2010 when more than 6.5% (just under 7 per cent?) of electricity fed into the grid amounts to a stonking 78.
So 39 hours or just over a day and a half in a year.
http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2011/03/04/guest-post-by-martin-brumby/
Yup, worse than we thought......
Lookit here - you don't understand!
Our wise bureaucrats are doing their best to get us into brown-out country, so that the illegal and otherwise immigrants will flee to wehre they came from.
See - it must be so hard for them to shiver in the dark and cold: we, who've grown up with winters of discontent and all that came before, we're used to it! We're used to ice on the windows, inside, we know what hot water bottles are for ...
So, see - it is a very cunning plan by Whitehall, they know what they're doing!
/sarc (in case of need ...)
Can that be correct? Or are things even worse than they thought?
There seems to be several ways to measure this, installed capacity is one, actual is another with a big discrepancy between the two.
Doesn't matter how many Wind Turbines you have when the UK is covered by a blocking High Pressure weather system there ain't no wind and the Sun is too low in the winter to fill any of the gap.
From Martin's article, a typical politician's quote
Being just a crude engineer the solution seems remarkably simple. Change the target, ignore it, or miss it. The Dutch seem to have realised this, even if Huhne hasn't. There's no practical reason why we must have 30% from renewables, if the actual objective is to reduce CO2 emissions.
Atomic
I've tried to argue that targets in terms of installed capacity are meaningless surrogates for energy production and CO2 emissions reductions, but those in power don't want to know. They like a nice but meaningless installed capacity target that they can measure. Everyone admits that, although installed capacity targets can be met, energy and emissions targets won't be met.
The reason Huhne hasn't "realised" is mainly because he doesn't want to.
I would love to have been a fly on the wall of the Lib-Con negotiations when somebody decided to give him the Energy brief. Of all the MPs that could have been chosen for that job he surely must be about the worst. And the most dangerous.
The fact that Huhne was given the Energy Brief indicates that no one even began to understand what they were doing. Now that is a sobering thought.
"It feels to me like we are heading for crunch time."
======
Yep, this is a political time-bomb, just look what happens when petrol is scarce/overpriced!
As this projected reality creeps fully into the public consciousness, I predict the green lobby will be about as popular as Col Gaddafi.
AnyColourYouLike.
But everybody in Libya loves Colonel Gaddafi. I know because he said so. Our Government is providing us with a future of plentiful green energy and with a constant climate, free from any dangerous changes. I know because they said so.
Let's be clear here, at least one job of an "opposition" is to expose the current Government to scrutiny. As with the "financial inheritance" so with the current energy policy inheritance. One has to ask exactly how fit they are to run a country when as opposition they had no idea what was going on with Labour. There is no "inheritance". The current lot voted "Yea" at every opportunity.
This isn't some Party issue. They all sat in the Snow and voted for the Climate Change Act. None of them has an exit strategy. Like AGW science where, as the climate doesn't warm, there is more reliance on software fantasy worlds so our politicians too retreat into those virtual worlds. I'm sure that when the crunch comes there will be much pointing of fingers but the truth is that they have all played their part.
Speaking of virtual worlds ...
Here is a good way to write to your MP
www.WriteToThem.com
I wrote to my MP and got a written reply within 10 days.
Arrrg - me tag lost the plot after the first paragraph ...
Philip Bratby 6:42 PM:
Surely you've answered your own question -- installed capacity can be used to inflate "progress" towards the environmental goals and claim success. Whether it's meaningful progress achieved isn't the point. [And in fact, the scare-quotes I put at the first usage is an indication of doubt whether motion in this direction, of whatever quantity, is helpful.]Worth The Candle
The Economic Impact of Renewable Energy Policy
in Scotland and the UK
March 2011
Executive Summary
This report examines the costs and benefits of government policy to support the
renewable energy industry in Scotland and the UK. The Scottish Government in
particular is promoting the renewables sector as an economic opportunity, and the
purpose of this report is to assess whether this is justified. The report therefore does
not investigate measures designed to reduce carbon emissions directly, nor does it
consider the merits of renewable technology as part of the attempts to slow climate
change.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12597097
http://www.versoeconomics.com/verso-0311B.pdf
Today, in addressing the Welsh Conservatives in Cardiff; George Osborne said, "We cannot place all our bets on the City of London. Wouldn't it be great if Britain made things again? What I want is a manufacturing revival."
Considered polluters, energy-intensive UK manufacturers were hung out to dry some years ago and fierce competition in world markets has already led to the demise of many.
What Mr Osborne does not seem to grasp, though, is that our energy policy and manufacturing are incompatible. With the prospect of the highest electricity costs in the world and a supply that could become as reliable as that of a third-world nation, not only can there be no revival, the demise will accelerate and many more manufacturing jobs will be lost to re-location to places where economic policies are not suicidal.
I'm most reluctant to comment on politics, but needs must. All our elected and non elected policians are culpable equally, I support none of them any longer, regard myself as disenfranchised, so rant I will.
We have suffered three disastrous adminstrations in succession- Blair's, Brown's and Cameron's. Blair was a silver-tongued green progressive liberal masquarading as Labour, Cameron is an identical clone mesmerising the Conservatives, and Brown was something from somewhere else. The fate of the country was sealed on 6 December 2005 when (Wiki quote)
'Cameron beat his closest rival David Davis by a margin of more than two to one, taking 134,446 votes to 64,398, and announced his intention to reform and realign the Conservative Party in a manner similar to that achieved by the Labour Party in opposition under Tony Blair. As part of this he distanced from himself from the much hated Conservative Party of the past, for example apologising for Section 28, and focused in on modern environmental issues.'
Davis should have been chosen as leader. Undoubtedly Peter Lilley would have been either Chancellor or Minister for Energy. He was Shadow Chancellor under William Hague. They would have defused UKIP by adopting UKIP- lite policies, and taken a sane pragmatic stand against EU and green energy nonsense, in my view. But unfortunately we have no ready-made Republican Party waiting in the wings.
Now, we effectively have a visceral split in the Conservatives (read between the lines at Conservative Home) with the lid just about holding on a steaming pot of discontent. As Delingpole has said, the Libs are now toast anyway. I give it a couple of years, maybe less, before that lid explodes off. Possibly mass defections to UKIP if they get their act together in the next couple of by-elections and the next Europolls. All gesture politics, of course. For always, in the background, the spectre of uvarovite green Millibandland, awaits us. Grim.
Re Phillip Bratby
Agreed, but then there is no real need to meet some of the targets. There is no scientific basis behind the 2020 target, just a catchy bit of PR around 20% by 2020. There is even less justification to increase cuts to 30%, or renewables to 30% unless the backup plan is a new campaign for 30-30-2030. Not quite as catchy and probably just as unrealistic.
The public is more likely to understand and question ever increasing fuel prices though and seem to be being prepped by Oil Shock v2 stories. They're starting to understand some of the cons regarding the economics of renewables, but the lobby groups are pushing back with junk like DECC's new game. Getting people to understand the futility and expense of replacing baseload with intermittent and unreliable energy production is going to need more work, and much of the media seems complicit in promoting the renewables scam.
As for the politics, a choice between Dave or Ed is no choice, but perhaps UKIP will bring some sanity, but not until the next elections. In the mean time, what can we do? Stock up on hexy tablets so we can cook?
Sort of along the same thread as Agnostic - I read that HSBC are now seriously thinking of returning to their 'home' - Hong Kong.
Surely a case of: 'Ok - you hate us (the banks) that much - we'll go forth and multiply elsewhere - taking our tax contribution with us'.
Companies don't manufacture in the UK because its TOO EXPENSIVE - and energy costs are a huge chunk of a company's costs. Now we are threatened not only with expensive electricity - but UNRELIABLE electricity..!
Would you do business here..? I certainly wouldn't..!
I've been monitoring the Neta data on wind output for the last 6 months. My analysis shows that:
• the average daily output from wind was 1.7% of the national total
• on 3 days over Christmas and New Year the daily wind output was only 0.1%
• the average wind load factor was 28%
• the average daily French Interconnect import was 2.1% of the total (max 5.5%)
What this analysis shows is that:
1. Even if the wind capacity were increased say tenfold to give 17% average output (and think how this would desecrate our landscapes and seascapes) it still wouldn't even come close to replacing the coal and nuclear plants due to be decommissioned by 2020. In any case the grid couldn't cope with such a large fluctuating supply. We certainly couldn't rely on the French Interconnect to make up the shortfall at that level of fluctuation.
2. The fact that the nationwide wind turbine electricity output can fall to just 0.1%, usually just when it's needed most in cold mid-winter, means that these wind turbines have to be 99.9% backed up by conventional power stations (or interconnect). In other words they are almost a total waste of space.
3. Wind turbine suppliers always quote the rated capacity of their windfarms but this is misleading. The average 28% load factor means that the average output from the UK current installed wind turbine capacity of 2.6GW is in fact only 745MW, about the same as a single medium-sized conventional power station.
Jack Hughes 8.27 PM:
"Here is a good way to write to your MP
www.WriteToThem.com
I wrote to my MP and got a written reply within 10 days."
I wish my MP would be as accomodating. I received no reply after several attempts. Like others, I am struggling to find ways to fight these insane policies. I'm not up to starting political parties, but I would sure help, if I could find a sensible way of doing so. Pursuing the BBC for its bias in reporting climate science (as I have been) is a pretty poor substitute.
I'm sick of the politeness/ civility of our current form of politics. I want violence in the streets; i want ordinary people to realise what is being done to them and to turn on those who are doing it. I want to see socialists being held to account for their atrocities. I want to hear from our Christian clergy that Christianity is the one true religion and that the immigrants who follow another religion will be tolerated, but will not be encouraged. I want my country back. I am suppressing my rage until the day comes when there is a national uprising and when that comes, I shall exact my version of vengeance on those who choose to live amongst us but do not choose to live by our national, civilised standards. Our way of life that has evolved over millennia. We do not deserve what is being done to us. And when the general populace realise this, I am eager to play my part in ridding this once glorious country of the infestation that so benights it.
re MikeT
I think starting a new party is optimistic, and also potentially divisive. Running an election campaign is expensive business and the majors have much of it sewn up. Then again, the majors have been losing support, and still need a lot of help. I used to be a Conservative donor and volunteer but ceased funding them when I realised they were following many of the trainwreck policies of the last government.
I'm still not sure about UKIP, but if their policies align with your thinking, it may be worth contacting them and offering help. There's plenty that can be done from leafletting and canvassing to standing as a candidate and much of it doesn't cost any more than your time. It can also be quite fun to actually get involved in our democratic process and do something rather than just vote once in a while.
Biggest challenge though is still solving the immediate problem, which is our looming energy crisis. Current policies from Dave & Co offer little more than papering over the cracks and funnelling our money to people that don't deserve it. The Dutch have given up on domestic wind, but Enerco is still bidding for £250m a year in subsidies from us. Making sure scams like that don't happen is productive given the capex would pay for baseload nuclear, supercritical coal or gas power.
MikeT
If you do not get a reply from your MP send an email to whoever you think is the relevant Minister or Shadow (your preference or both) enclosing the previous unanswered correspondence remembering to copy your MP.
Sit back and wait, the number of confusing contradictory replies will keep you warm during these cold evenings.
No answer is not acceptable, I am presently awaiting the latest contortion from my MP, only a week in, so time yet…
More windmills perhaps?
Oil prices: Urgent steps needed to wean UK onto other energy sources, MPs say
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/05/oil-uk-energy-sources
"In private, the best-informed analysts now agree that Britain's environmental policies have put the country on track to have the world's most expensive electricity."
Of course skeptical minded people would never swallow an anonymous "private" reference. They'd insist on seeing the evidence. Are there any skeptics that read this blog? Just curious.
5 March: UK Telegraph: Christopher Booker: Transport Secretary Philip Hammond reveals his ignorance of wind power
Philip Hammond's claim that onshore wind power 'pays its way' is completely off-beam, says Christopher Booker
Talking on the BBC last week about wind turbines, which are at the centre of our Government’s energy policy, the Transport Secretary, Philip Hammond, said “onshore wind doesn’t need subsidy any more, onshore wind can pay its way”. This was so laughably untrue that one has to wonder whether Mr Hammond was being deliberately untruthful or whether, which is almost worse, he is so ignorant that he actually believed what he said....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/8363643/Transport-Secretary-Philip-Hammond-reveals-his-ignorance-of-wind-power.html
Writing to your MP will signal that people are unhappy. This is better than doing nothing.
The reply from my MP was just boilerplate nonsense about "de-carbonisation" - but at least I have flagged the issue.
I did not expect a sensible reply, because these pols are just going along with whatever suits them a t the time - they are not prone to independent analysis or even independent thought.
Mar 5, 2011 at 2:55 PM | David
Mar 5, 2011 at 3:28 PM | Scottie
Mar 5, 2011 at 4:30 PM | Robin Guenier
Mar 5, 2011 at 10:30 PM | Doug Brodie
Use of NETA statistics.
Pedantry/on
I think you will find that NETA only report on the metered output from Scottish Windmills. If you go to the table "Peak Wind Generation Forecast" and click on "Power Park Modules EXCEL Spreadsheet" you should get a list of the windmills concerned. My bleeding computer refuses to open the spreadsheet today, but from memory I think it is only Scottish windmills.
The UK as a whole has about 5GW of wind capacity, of which Scotland has about 2.7GW capacity.
It is possible that the correct number for total UK wind output is twice (!) that shown in the NETA table.
However, twice FA is still FA.
Pedantry/off.
For some reason, the half hour output statistics for windmills in NI, Wales and England are a State Secret.
Mar 6, 2011 at 7:14 AM | Unregistered Commenter Brownedoff
Approximately half of commercial wind turbines are monitered by NETA (2662MW of installed capacity out of 5208MW installed capacity).
See http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm