Friday
Nov042011
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Whiteout
Nov 4, 2011 Climate: Surface David Whitehouse takes a long hard look at Richard Black's (ahem) analysis of global temperatures.
The problem with [Black's analysis] is that it makes the rudimentary mistake of ignoring the short-term variations and noise in the data resulting in spurious trend estimates that, as statistics often does in the wrong hands, obscures more than it illuminates. A more scientific and statistically preferable approach is to start in 1991, using monthly data, and plot ten-year regression lines. It is obvious that they are converging on zero for the past decade – the exact opposite of what Black told his audience.
Reader Comments (47)
We'd appreciate a link to David Whitehouse's plot of such a monthly base-date 1991 set of ten-year regression-lines converging to zero from c. 2001 - late 2011.
John Blake.
HaroldW has already done it..
http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/8263/gisstrends.jpg
Nothtebeeb,
thanks for the link but the linked chart finishes at 2001-2002 (implying the latest 10-yr trend was for the mid 90s to mid 00's. A chart including more recent years would be nice.
No Hector, the horizontal axis is labelled "Trend Start Year". The chart is bang up to date and quite an eye-opener.
Am I being dim or what?
Surely HaroldW's graph a 10-year trend up to 2011.
It starts with 1991.1 to 2001.1 and ends with 2001.x to 2011.x
It can't go any further or it wouldn't be showing a 10-year trend?!
Sorry about the formatting!
AND I see someone else got there first.
We have errors in dates, misleading graphs and misleading statistics concerning Richard Black's talk.
You certainly cannot use a moving 10 year average on the satellite data for such short periods ~ 30 years or so, because that produces erroneous plots in comparison with the much longer surface data records.
You certainly cannot argue that because a graph using 10 year averaging shows similar magnitudes and trends in warming between the surface and satellite that this proves AGW, this runs counter to the theory.
In all Richard Black's briefing is a good example of how the BBC currently deals with climate science - it is advocacy coupled with misleading reporting. This should be required viewing for all those involved in the debate on reporting AGW.
Pretty devastating.
Is Dr Whitehouse going to apply to be BBC Science Editor?
Have you noticed the wit of the headings - Tomorrow's World - A kick up the eighties - I'm sorry I haven't a clue....all famous BBC prigs.
Now THERE is a journalist for you.
I keep on asking why the feck you Brits continue to pay the Tele Tax to support this stupidity. No answer yet.
I hate to get back to the issue of surface temperature(!) but I always thought it was traditional in climatology to stick to trends over 30 years or longer. Anything less than that runs the risk of contamination from short-term noise.
Has David Whitehouse looked at what the 30 year trends say?
Simply torpor, Don Pablo, and an unwillingness to make a fuss.
I hate to get back to the issue of surface temperature(!) but I always thought it was traditional in climatology to stick to trends over 30 years or longer. Anything less than that runs the risk of contamination from short-term noise.
Has David Whitehouse looked at what the 30 year trends say?
Because we have to, Don Pablo! It applies to anyone with 'receiving apparatus' which includes digiboxes and computer interfaces.
To be fair, the Beeb does still make a few good programmes, both TV and radio, and the lack of advertisements is worth the licence fee, IMO, especially considering the cost of alternatives like Murdoch-vision (Sky) and cable.
I just wish they'd stick to proper reporting and employ some scientifically literate journalists, like David Whitehouse (which, of course, they did).
Don Pablo,
We have to pay our TV licence, but may I say it's all worth it to have Brwan Cocks.
Sorry that should be Brywan Cocks.
From the BBC strategic objectives;
"Connect with our audiences, including our underserved audiences, using different methods to inform the quality and direction of our programmes."
Black is bang on target with that one then!
Because we have to, Don Pablo!
Ever hear of "civil disobedience"? I remember the story about a guy with a spinning wheel in India. Not to mention what a number of colonists who didn't like King George III's taxes did.
What you guys need is a British Tea Party.
I have paid my licence fee since the beginning of Tyme, when the vast Kusmus was born (not like me in Blackburn) but in a mighty fireball (long stare at camera - smile - flop hair).
And don't let any sceptics get on hair (sorry air) either....
does he mean regression lines back to '91? rather than the previous 10 years for any line? if so, i wouldn't disagree. but blacks analysis was already showing similar trend. except for the 10 year departure between the la nina of '00 (centered-ish) and the el nino of '10. i suspect if you use an 11 year period blacks figures would be utterly different also.
>Ever hear of "civil disobedience"?
I can be very disobedient Don P (ask my ex-wives) but my heart's not in it for the Beeb. I listen to Radio 4 all the time, I'm afraid, and I just ignore it when Shukman or Black comes on.
The licence fee is not unique to the UK. In France it's included in the taxe d'habitation unless you specifically declare that you don't have a TV.
Why pay the TV tax?
http://www.tvlicensing.co.uk/check-if-you-need-one/topics/detection-and-penalties-top5/
This site has All the information you need to know on the TV Tax. You can own and set up a TV without needing a licence.
I suspect encouraging or inciting others not to pay would be guarantee the £1000 fine and probably further action (but IANAL).
TV detector vans trying to pin down a mobile phone on a moving tran??? hahahaha
train
I am happy to pay the licence fee for Frozen Planet all on its own, stunning
The Greeks added their TV licence to their electricity bills and look what happened to them.
Saw, the BBC,
The scene on Mulberry Street.
To think what they saw!
===============
Metaphor for tan:
We slap and tickle keyboards.
Millions time travel.
=========
The Greeks added their TV licence to their electricity bills and look what happened to them.
Nov 4, 2011 at 10:25 PM | Atomic Hairdryer
What happened?? I'm assuming they will try to get as much free money as they can get before 'sensibly' defaulting. Just come back from Greece, extended as we couldn't make out original flight as they were on strike at the time, so just carried on for a couple more weeks into Turkey. From what I've seen Greece will be able to cope with defaulting, they are cohesive enough and have the space and productive capacity to be able to manage.
As someone else said basically, even if they go back to the Drachma they will still trade Euros as you just need an exchange rate against it like the dollar. Back in March traveled up through Panama and they officially use the Balboa where 1 Balboa = 1 US Dollar and they don't actually print the Balboa!!
@burton:
what's 'free money'? the 'bail out' is a loan. at slightly more 'sensible' interest rates. and anybody who doesn't 'print' 'free money' is alright by me.
anyone know a good libertarian blog on tinterwebz?
My sister's ballet teacher got arrested, questioned, and jailed once just for having access to someone else's radio. The National Socialists, it seems, wanted to prevent citizens of Jersey from getting access to the truth, and fill their minds with propaganda.
At least they didn't have to pay a tax on the propaganda. It was free. The teacher and his family could have been shot, but instead received lenient sentences of several months in gaol. A second conviction would probably have resulted in their being shipped east to a concentration camp and never seen again.
The night after Donald Journeau and his family finished their sentences, they turned out the lights and went out and dug up their own radio, to listen to the BBC.
there really r some childish twats round ere, n all that. why dont u read some science of an evening insted of impersonating a derth of monkeys? or is this an 'i'm stuk so far up my own arse i think my poetry is a secret handshake' society?
Nov 5, 2011 at 1:53 AM | Unregistered Commentertan
Capitalisation is important.
"I helped my Uncle Jack off his horse" conveys a somewhat different image to "i helped my uncle jack off his horse".
Re: tutu
PeteH
Marvellous!
You get the Zed fixed now the tan doesn't work.
Take out a new TV licence every 13 or 14 months under a different pseudonym. I have no shame in doing this when people like Black peddle psyence.
P.S. You've got to pay it in cash, of course!
@Pete H
I tend to use 'God is nowhere' Vs 'God is now here' to exemplify the same point :-)
Mike Jackson The licence fee is not unique to the UK. In France it's included in the taxe d'habitation unless you specifically declare that you don't have a TV.
I remember reading on a French government website that having a PC with a TV card does not require you to pay the tax.
Found it!
"Je n’ai pas de téléviseur mais un ordinateur avec une carte télévision, dois-je payer la contribution à l'audiovisuel public ?
Non, car les micro-ordinateurs munis d’une carte télévision permettant la réception de la télévision ne sont pas taxables."
Years back, in Britain, I had no TV. I remember the stream of unpleasant and vaguely threatening letters that kept arriving. I phoned them to say that I had no TV (bar some old non-working 405-line sets in the loft). I was told I would not be harrassed further.
Shortly after, a couple of gorillas accompanied by a copper and waving a search warrant rolled up on my doorstep. I phoned the TV licence HQ and after a long discussion, they agreed there was some kind of error. I handed the phone to the copper and evidently he was told to leave me in peace. So after maybe 45 minutes of having this unwelcome group on my doorstep, they left.
I wrote a letter of complaint and demanded compensation for the hassle. I received a letter back, with a cheque for (If I remember) £150. They said they did not pay compensation but, in this completely exceptional case, they were making an ex-gracia payment. (I still have a scan of the cheque somewhere on my system.)
The harrassment of non-viewers is not insignificant. I don't believe my case was in any way exceptional.
On the BBC web site environment pages:
Our experts:
Richard Black oh oh oh it must be the season to be merry.
Black is an intellectual lightweight who clearly must be being spoon fed his information.
Has he stopped blogging and allowing comments on the drivel he spouts out. If so the answer is he cannot support his beliefs and take the criticism.
tutu
Am I missing something or are you simply being offensive for the sake of it?
Sorry, but the tele tax people cannot enter your house, nor do you have to answer their questions and if they don't leave your property when asked to do Si they are then trespassing (although good luck getting the police to uphold the laws!)
I hadn't paid the tv tax for 4 years. Hit heaps if ugly letters until one day a tele tax person knocked on the door when I was out. Upshot is now the Missuss pays the tax (as shed was the one who answered the door in spite of my numerous instructions on what to do if they came!).
Mailman
Mailman Sorry, but the tele tax people cannot enter your house, (...)
If they arrive with a search warrant issued by a court, they most certainly can and they will.
And, while the search is being conducted, under the eye of a policeman, are you certain that nothing else will be found that may lead to problems - a package that one of your kids agreed to keep safe for a friend perhaps?
Sheesh!! I've never known a blog get so off topic! (And I've been responsible in the past for some diversions...).
I so much wanted to continue reading about Whitehouse's ideas of what the mistakes were that Black made - and there were many - but what do we get? A bitch-fest on the inequities of the freakin' BBC TV licence! Yeah, it's not fair; yeah, they employ pillocks like Black; but yes, we need to point out, in spades, where his arguments (I have a generous nature on a Sunday) are cr*p.
</rant>
I must admit that I dislike the idea of being forced to pay a licence fee to a biased institution. It seems wrong in principle that those who politically dislike the BBC are not able to simple programme their TV sets so as not to receive BBC channels but then are entitled to watch other commercially funded TV channels. This could be simply achieved by not storing BBC channels when the TV set is tuned.
However, UK law is such that you cannot watch live TV (whether on a TV set, computer, mobile phone, dvd/video recorder etc) without paying the licence fee. But you can watch catch up TV and today this format is ever increasing. Most programmes of note can be found on catch up TV and they are frequently uploaded just after the live programme has completed its broadcast. If you use catch up TV you may simply be watching something an hour or so behind schedule so not a great sacrifice.
I am not sure on this but it may be that you can watch live satellite TV provided that the satellite feed is not being broadcast from the UK. That would rule out most English speaking channels but may be of interest to some who are fluent in other languages. I can recall years ago (prior to digitalisation) watching many scandinavian channels and these had a lot of English speaking content (subtitled into Norwegian, Swedish, Danish and not dubbed such as German channels). There was a recent case where a Pub was able to broadcast live premier football sourced from a foreign satellite feed and did not have to pay Sky its exhorbitant charges. For those in the UK, it may therefore be worth looking into foreign satellite feeds and whether a UK TV licence is required to watch these.
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