Thursday
Dec092010
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Temperature records tumble
Dec 9, 2010 Climate: Surface 
From Accuweather:
The central England Temperature (CET) from the 1st-7th of December is -1.9, making this the coldest opening week of December since 1879; 1879 is the coldest opening week on CET record, so this week has been the second coldest opening week to December since CET records began in 1659.
The two-week period, last week of November and first week of December is the coldest since CET records began in 1659.
H/T Sara Chan.
Reader Comments (90)
CET is the longest uninterrupted temperature record for this country an invaluable record when discussing climate.
Winter starts when Nature decides not man, the fact that it has started early this year in this region means that the annual average temperaure for the year will be greatly reduced and if the winter ends later than normal, as could be expected, then 2011 will be a colder year than recent years.
If as some are predicting that winters in this region are starting to get longer then we can expect cooler years as the norm.
As far as global temperatures are concerned I couldn't give a fig, I am more concerned with what affects my family and their families as I would expect the government, my elected representatives, to be.
If they want their scientific representatives to pontificate that 2010 is the warmest year on record globally, so be it. It doesn't bear any relationship to me trying to keep the extreme cold at bay by forgoing more and more of my hard earned wages on purchasing energy and food which are essential. Politicians and scientists are replaceable.
Zed
Do remember that this is a filthy den of MITs. You are in a weak position accusing JohnH of trying to 'warp public perception' of AGW. Hardly public in the sense you mean.
Second, again aggression trumps objectivity. How did you determine that JohnH is being 'dishonest'? He is much more likely to believe that he is telling the truth, which makes him honest, does it not?
An excellent example of a measured and thoughtful comment was helpfully provided by Atomic Hairdryer at 3:14 above.
As quoted in the post 'The central England Temperature (CET) from the 1st-7th of December is -1.9, making this the coldest opening week of December since 1879; 1879 is the coldest opening week on CET record, so this week has been the second coldest opening week to December since CET records began in 1659. The two-week period, last week of November and first week of December is the coldest since CET records began in 1659.'
Meteorologically, winter commences on December 1. December 1, 2010 is the coldest December 1 for which we have records. The record cold start to December continued on beyond December 7, and was part of a continuous cold episode starting in November, which as cited above is the coldest two weeks centred on December 1 since 1659.
December 2008: coldest start to winter since 1976
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/3724518/Weather-Coldest-start-to-winter-since-1976.html
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081212.html
And now December 2010:
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/849115-coldest-start-to-winter-on-record-as-two-die
"British forecasters said Wednesday had been the coldest December 1 on record, with no hope of a let-up in the coming days."
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23902655-britain-closes-down-as-snow-worsens.do
'Fresh snow, as deep as 40cm (16ins) in some areas of England, fell throughout the day during what forecasters described as the coldest December 1 on record'
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20101201/twl-airports-closed-as-europe-shivers-in-e7cd017.html
"British forecasters said Wednesday had been the coldest December 1 on record, with no hope of a let-up in the coming days...Bild newspaper said it was the coldest December 1 in several hundred years, with temperatures as low as minus 18C in some places."
Central England Temperature records go back to 1659 (which is 'over 350 years'). If anyone thinks that my claim of "the coldest start to winter for over 350 years" is without foundation (as one rather hasty and unpleasant commenter is suggesting), kindly do us all a great favour and supply the year in which either (1) December 1, or (2) a period centred around December 1, or (3) the period from December 1 to December 9 inclusive was colder in the last 350 years.
@ ZedsDeadBed
It's blingmun with an "n" if you don't mind, not "blingmum" as you keep calling me.
My quote corroborates SfT's claims by showing that many prominent AGW scientists were making similar predictions at the time. If the Met Office disputed the claims made in that article in the Independent, why didn't they speak up? Where are all the articles reporting the great Snow Debate between CRU and Hadley Centre on the one hand, and the Met Office on the other?
We both know very well that almost all warmists were agreed in 2000 that the climate was already changing. Toy stores were already no longer selling sledges and anthropologists were speculating on how our lifestyles would need to adapt. Ten years' on and we're in a world of snow and ice.
Zed
Yes, this was your position last time as I recall.
I asked you to cite Viner specifically rather than waving in his general direction. I may have missed it but I didn't see any chapter and verse from you in response.
What is it that Viner is essentially saying that is being contradicted by the infamous 'no more snow' article?
For the record.
Thanks
Dominic
Zed
Why don't you go outside and play in the snow? You obviously have been snow bound too long and are getting feisty again. A little exercise will do you (and us) some good.
The tights business proves that Zeds has never worn tights in his/her life.
@zed -
Warping public opinion has been attempted for years - by Al Gore, by the media, by the politicians, by dupes like you and most recently, by the clowns at the Cancun Circus and those who support that farce. Do you believe in banning Dihydrogen Monoxide? :-)
And your dishonesty doesn't increase my desire to believe in the veracity of the AGW dogma. Dishonesty? Of course. Those who live here are sceptics. They are the heretics and it's no longer fashionable or acceptable to burn them at the stake. So it's YOUR job to convert THEM. And insults, sarcasm and ad hom attacks are an extremely poor way to do that. If you want to make a point, you need to come up with your own data to prove them wrong. Otherwise, you're being dishonest with respect to your role in the debate.
BTW - I have been a "man in tights" so to speak - during cold weather training as a Marine, during my hike of the Appalachian Trail, during my hike of the Pacific Crest Trail, during my two hikes of the Continental Divide Trail, during my hike of the Canadian Great Divide Trail and during several thousand miles of winter hiking. Not to mention the long days of working outside in cold weather. I find your "insult" absolutely hilarious - and totally ignorant.
JohnH: It's all your fault. If it wasn't for your dishonesty, we wouldn't be troubled by zbd and she could go and play with all of her 2". It's pointless responding to her; why do people bother? She's clearly another dogmatic eco-loon?.
BTW I'm another chappie who has worn tights, in my case whilst doing winter fell races.
Zed,
There's me thinking we were all speaking the same language as the forecasters.
"throughout the day during what forecasters described as the coldest December 1 on record"
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gotiBv067u3fYCEzgV3Y2ZLOqhgQ?docId=N0368231291177644738A
This is Paul Hudson talking about last winter (BBC weather & climate blog)
"So whichever outcome occurs, it would be in the top 50 coldest Januarys since CET records began 350 years ago"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/01/
Clearly we have evidence that the original quote (2) you called out is indeed correct.
Or will you be redefining the start of winter, as well as the definition of records?
I wore tights during RN Diving training in 1985, a particularly cold January had us breaking the ice on the brackish Horsea Island lake before we could get in!
"Second, again aggression trumps objectivity. How did you determine that JohnH is being 'dishonest'? He is much more likely to believe that he is telling the truth, which makes him honest, does it not?"
Dec 9, 2010 at 3:44 PM | BBD
I found this place by googling 'ZedsDeadBed" and finding JohnH and Natsman boasting about how they delete their cookies to repeatedly mark my comments down on another website. They were also giving tips on how to do it and encouraging others to do the same. Needless to say, as is the norm here, nobody posted a comment to say that what they were doing is thoroughly dishonest.
The hypocrisy is even more astonishing in the case of Natsman, who posts elsewhere as Chris of Correze. When asked for evidence for his wild claims (and believe me, they're very 'out there') he tries to claim that public opinion means he's right, pointing to the very voting that he's manipulating at the same time.
Dec 9, 2010 at 3:46 PM | ScientistForTruth
I notice how you didn't even try and justify the first point. I also notice how you don't have the integrity to concede you were wrong on it.
As for the 2nd, even if you're happy to use CET for the whole country (which I'm not), Winter (1st December onwards in meteorology) started colder in 1879. However, CET is highly regionalised and a bit ropey, especially earlier on, which is why it's not generally used to assess the whole country.
You didn't confine your claim to central England, or just to England at all, therefore you need to relate to a temperature set for the whole country, which you do not have for 350 years.
Zed
And your point is?
Even with your bombastic nature, this is an odd thread to try and undermine. Are Daily Mail readers giving you too hard a time..?
I found this place by googling 'ZedsDeadBed" and finding JohnH and Natsman boasting about how they delete their cookies to repeatedly mark my comments down on another website.
I hope you understand Libel, if so you can quote where I said I deleted cookies or retract your remarks.
James P
James. My point is that people write absolute rubbish on this website all the time. Demonstrably false and unsourced twaddle. Fair enough, stuff like that makes up a fair percentage of the internet. However, this website has a theme of promoting honesty, scientific rigour and scepticism. Something it turns only towards climate science, and manifestly fails to turn on itself.
Which completely undermines any of the ideals of this site, and shows that the contributors aren't really worried about the science being right, they just want AGW to be wrong.
"I hope you understand Libel, if so you can quote where I said I deleted cookies or retract your remarks."
Dec 9, 2010 at 4:53 PM | JohnH
"Yep thats them, wasted 10 mins of my life yesterday clicking -VE against all their posts, satisfying though ;)"
Jun 12, 2010 at 5:39 PM | JohnH
By implication. You can't revote unless you fool the site into not recognising you again.
ZDB
James. My point is that people write absolute rubbish on this website all the time. Demonstrably false and unsourced twaddle.
Mainly by you.
"I hope you understand Libel, if so you can quote where I said I deleted cookies or retract your remarks."
Dec 9, 2010 at 4:53 PM | JohnH
"Yep thats them, wasted 10 mins of my life yesterday clicking -VE against all their posts, satisfying though ;)"
Jun 12, 2010 at 5:39 PM | JohnH
By implication. You can't revote unless you fool the site into not recognising you again.
So you have no specific post from me saying I deleted cookies only that I voted -ve against all your posts which does not imply in anyway that I delted cookies.
So unless you retract I consider my self libelled, you have 24hrs.
Zed
If what you say is true - and I offer no opinion since I know nothing about this - then I can understand why you might have an issue or two with these commenters.
On a more general note, polarising argument is counter-productive when the data are as noisy and unreliable as climate records. So, while you appear to conceded that the meteorologically correct start of winter yields a colder one than 2010, you only quote a single instance, that of 1879.
If that is it, then it rather tends to enhance the extraordinary nature of UK winter temperatures.
The point about the geographical coverage of the CET is fair, and we all know that all temperature records of any real age are subject to inaccuracies.
So, returning to the original points made by SFT and so vigorously attacked by you. What have you proved?
Prof. Stott does indeed appear to state that winters like 1962/63 should by now be vanishingly rare. He does appear to be wrong.
Winter this year in the UK is unusually severe and early in onset. An examination of the only extant long-term record - the CET - appears to support this.
So for all the back-and-forth, this is hardly a resounding triumph over some supposedly egregious nonsense is it?
As I said a while back, perhaps this wasn't a bone worth picking.
Garbled nonsense. Apologies.
"So unless you retract I consider my self libelled, you have 24hrs."
Dec 9, 2010 at 5:06 PM | JohnH
Go for your life.
Best of luck with it.
Zed
"they just want AGW to be wrong."
Don't you?
James P
Of course I do - poorly worded. They just want to, for differing motivations, persuade people to act as though AGW were not real, or act in such a way themselves.
The motivations of 'you lot' I have dwelt on here before and are varied, I prefer one catch all term. Andrew doesn't like the one I used to use, and as it's his site, he gets to make that call. So I now use Men in Tights.
Incidentally - I'm off out now and won't be coming back to this place for a few days - so won't be responding to anything else today.
JohnH - be sure to tell me how much your solicitor started laughing. I can guarantee they won't have a straight face when they explain why it might be a difficult case to proceed with.
Zed
As always, you are bailing out without answering my main questions.
Should you return, they are copied below to jog your memory:
++++++++++++++++++
I've not once seen anyone leaping to the defence of what Dr. Viner was essentially saying.
Yes, this was your position last time as I recall.
I asked you to cite Viner specifically rather than waving in his general direction. I may have missed it but I didn't see any chapter and verse from you in response.
What is it that Viner is essentially saying that is being contradicted by the infamous 'no more snow' article?
For the record.
Thanks
Dominic
++++++++++++++++
And:
+++++++++++++++++++
So, returning to the original points made by SFT and so vigorously attacked by you. What have you proved?
Prof. Stott does indeed appear to state that winters like 1962/63 should by now be vanishingly rare. He does appear to be wrong.
Winter this year in the UK is unusually severe and early in onset. An examination of the only extant long-term record - the CET - appears to support this.
So for all the back-and-forth, this is hardly a resounding triumph over some supposedly egregious nonsense is it?
As I said a while back, perhaps this wasn't a bone worth picking.
Dec 9, 2010 at 5:07 PM | BBD
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Winter (1st December onwards in meteorology) started colder in 1879."
Pathetic. When we get to the last few weeks of the year and the mercury plunges below freezing and stays there for weeks on end, with large volumes of snow, we can confidently affirm that winter has started. Winter is a season, if you hadn't noticed, and nature doesn't observe calendar dates. However, if you want a calendar start date then December 1, 2010 was colder than December 1, 1879.
"you need to relate to a temperature set for the whole country, which you do not have for 350 years".
Not at all. I have to do no such thing - what, meet your particular whims and fancies? Have you forgotten to read the post in your haste to cast aspersions? The post above against which these comments are made starts with the words "The central England Temperature (CET)..." That's what this post is about, chum. And that's the dataset we're talking about. You can talk about some other topic if you want, but you can't say that someone making a comment related to the dataset in the post needs to relate it to a different dataset for the whole country (which region, England, Britain, Great Britain, United Kingdom?)
"You didn't confine your claim to central England, or just to England at all, therefore you need to relate to a temperature set for the whole country"
Yes I did because that's what this blog post is about, if you hadn't noticed. So I'm staying 'on topic' and you are trying to align my statement to something else of your own devising. Don't make yourself look any more of a fool.
YOU choose not to accept the ONLY dataset that stretches over 350 years, and the subject of this post, and we're all supposed to fall on our swords are we?
Don't be so daft. If you want to compare temperatures over 350 years you are obliged to use the temperature set we've got that covers the country as best it does. You can't ask someone to provide a dataset that doesn't exist. And it's perfectly reasonable to make a comment limited to the dataset mentioned in the post. So you think that because we can't produce a dataset for a different region that covers 350 years then we can't make a comment about a dataset that does? What a joker you are.
It's fine to ask for evidence as the onus is on the one making the claim, but when references have been provided it's then quite reasonable put the onus on the questioner to refute it. So please address the point:
If anyone thinks that my claim of "the coldest start to winter for over 350 years" is without foundation, kindly do us all a great favour and supply the year in which either (1) December 1, or (2) a period centred around December 1, or (3) the period from December 1 to December 9 inclusive was colder in the last 350 years.
Remember, I said "to December 9" (the date of this comment, and still part of the start of winter), not "to December 7", and the temperature dataset is CET, as per the topic of the post, of course.
@BBD
They never answer questions because they have no answers.
I'm in the middle of a "discussion" on another blog with Zeds twin brother. He's all questions/demands/accusations but no answers. I think it may be a genetic malfunction. :-)
oso loco
Yes, getting a straight answer does seem difficult. To be fair though, I had to pay attention to the day job for a while and when I came back she had already left the building, so to speak.
It is irritating because I had noticed that she had not responded and I was going to press for something specific (ie referenced to something published) on Viner at the very least.
Such is life ;-)
Z, don't you mean men in tights are Santa? It must be tough suffering from dyslexia as well all your other 'problems' like the delusion that people are taking you seriously rather than just laughing at you.
When it comes to a battle of wits you are practicing unarmed combat.
Oh, I don't know. There's a couple of guys in the Norwich area might do him a deal!
"suffering from dyslexia"
Has Zed sold his soul to Santa by mistake..?
Zeddeadbeat - The CET records are there for you to check. So maybe you could tell us if "The two-week period, last week of November and first week of December is the coldest since CET records began in 1659." is correct or wrong.
Also if Vicky Pope makes forecasts for 1,000 years ahead, do you reckon its very scientific? Considering they have got the last few winters wrong. Who will be around to check her forecasts. Her guess is as good as mine, though I believe my guess is better than hers and I say it will be cold.
and while you are at it, Truro Troll, give us the evidence for the Hotspot. You have failed to do it over at the D.M. for two years. Any chance you will finally show us the empirical evidence here?
I have to say ZBD is like a professional pick pocket...
She gets everyone conversing with her, looking "her" in the face, but no one is watching her hands as she "picks the pocket" of these posts every time.
And what is worse everyone stills falls for the same trick.
"picks the pocket"? If we regard this blog as a good quality public record of the sceptic debate (and for me that is what this site is), then in a few years anyone looking back will ignore blog posts were ZBD has "picked its pocket".
Jiminy C,
Since the intent is to disrupt or prevent any discussion, I'd say it's fairly effective?
I think her pocket picking success rate is high... rich pickings...
AccuWeather’s Joe Bastardi updates the comment reproduced in the head-post. The ongoing UK freeze remains extraordinarily unusual by any standards:
[Emphasis mine.]http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
We have just the same problem with Zed on the DM site. All bluff and bluster like a honey badger and absolutely no basic scientific knowledge. A big show at parroting scientific sounding words and phrases, but other than referring to 'peer reviewed papers' that any fool could find out about on a suitable 'warmist' site, she never actually answers any questions that might require even a basic understanding physics especially basic thermodynamics. Don't argue in basic terms with this character as if she were your intelectual equal. Challenge her with some real science.
Regards