More meteorological spin

Simon Jenkins in the Graun takes a pop at Met Office forecasters for getting their predictions for the summer wrong. There's been a lot of this over the last couple of days ever since the Met Office put out a self-justifying press release:

In April our seasonal forecast for the summer (June, July and August) stated that there was a 65% probability of a warmer-than-average and near- or drier-than-average summer. Our news release stated: “The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’... 

Read that carefully. Apparently they stated that there was a 65% probability of a warm dry summer. Now go and look at the original press release from the start of the summer, where the figure of 65% is nowhere to be seen. There is only the reference to "odds-on".

What does the expression "odds-on" mean? In mathematical terms it means in a range from 50% right up to 100%. So while technically it includes 65%, in terms of communicating a meaning, the use of the term suggested a much higher level of certainty than was warranted by the underlying tealeaf gazing science.

I would say that it is "odds-on" that the Met Office are not being straight with us.

Comments

[Rob Fisher]

My hypothesis is that they are adding a global warming factor to all their long range forecasts, and it repeatedly fails to materialise.

[John Lish]

Its another pro-AGW organisation shooting themselves in the foot. Give people enough rope...