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tomo,
Yeah, the pollies have a pretty limited repertoire. Something sensational happens and all they can do is write some new rules or call an inquiry. E.g. all the anti-terrorism laws supposedly to prevent something that was already profoundly illegal.

Rather than put strictures on AI, maybe the EU (and everyone else) should set AI to work through the mountains of laws and regulations to highlight contradictions and inconsistencies. Then they can put their heads together to make it all a bit less ridiculous.

Thinking a bit more on that notion of asking the chatbot to give the case for its previous answer, that could be rounded out by asking it for the case *against* as well. That makes the AI a (notionally) impartial advocate. Still has to convince a human who'll put his neck on the line for the decision.

Depends a lot on the training. I suspect the unvetted training material (whole internet) for ChatGPT would lead to logical inconsistencies in the two cases (e.g. plenty of stuff describing renewable energy as the cheapest, and plenty describing it as the dearest).


Mailman,
It's fair payment for how badly the old media have behaved. It continues too. ABC's coverage last night of the Kennedy grilling gave accusations (from politicians and his cousin), but none of his responses. I don't expect ABC needed to doctor it much; the international feed would have had their slant covered adequately.


The mid-air collision over the Potomac: well covered here (another tomo regular source, I think).

Jan 30, 2025 at 11:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterRobert Swan

Robbo,

I also love how the "new" media will be seated in the front of the press conferences 😂😂

Jan 30, 2025 at 9:14 AM | Unregistered CommenterMailman

Robert - when I see stuff like that EU diktat on AI - it always nettles me that I didn't bookmark a serious flub by German lawmakers right back at the start of Energiewende where they drafted a law that flat out went against some law of physics (inverse square wrt radiation or a thermodynamics law - I don't recall) and resolutely pig headedly defended their choice for several months until somebody did a finger painting explanation for them - whereon the law was quietly amended .....

I do recall some name calling (by the Greens and SDP) at people who pointed out their fundamental (and quite simple) mistake - needless to say - it's lost in the digital mists - and I have looked.....

My point is... Having little to no comprehension of a topic is no barrier to politicians et al from launching into a spasm of lawmaking or absurd regulation.

How do I find them all ? some simple metrics - the primary one being a healthy dash of humility and links... I tend to trust people who show both and aren't slavishly chasing clicks.

Jan 30, 2025 at 8:55 AM | Registered Commentertomo

tomo,
I agree: there will be applications where "AI" is beneficial, and it has put computers into creative areas in the role of creator, not merely a tool. That's new.

What you say about NVidia's use of "AI" in chip design is what I was getting at with the "shape shifter". There's a lot more than the neural net core sailing under the glorious "AI" banner. That promotes a wide perception of all-powerful AI. There was a comment at Jo Nova's recently saying there was no human job that AI couldn't do. I didn't respond (too late, all threads die quickly at Jo Nova's), but I'd say one safe job is taking blame. I don't think we're quite ready for computers to take legal responsibility.

Optimistically, the EU AI Act might be an acknowledgement of this, to sober things up a bit, and to clamp down on outright fraud a la Theranos. Then you consider who's writing the new laws and who's signing off on them, and have to feel they'll just be waving the carpet-baggers through.

I was chatting with a friend last night. With the recent excitement, he (unlike me) had made some effort looking into Deepseek. One very interesting thing that is claimed is that it *can* explain the reasoning behind its answers. If true, that is a dramatic change. Given the full reasoning, a *human* is in a position to be convinced (or not), and to put himself in the position of decision-maker and take responsibility.

Given the one-way nature of the neural net matrix operations (AIUI), I suspect Deepseek's explanation is not really giving its "reasoning", but the answer to a *new* query: Give a rationale for *previous answer*, and the machine synthesises that rationale with no reference at all to how it came to the first answer. That's not altogether disturbing — humans quite often start with a hunch, then form a rationale post-hoc — but it's not going to be an exercise in cold logic.

At least that's my hunch :-)

Thanks for the asianometry tip. Another place to explore (how do you find them all, and find the time to watch them?!) Also, always enjoy a Matt cartoon.

Watched the Fake News Awards. Started out well, with things that were clearly false, and known to be false at the time of original broadcast. The later stuff was more complicated. The truth is a pretty slippery thing in the baddies vs baddies conflicts.


Mailman,
A surprising bit of news from the OMB bunker was that they had reinstated 440 (IIRC) press passes that had been revoked by Biden. I don't think we heard a peep about Biden's massive attack on the fourth estate. It's almost like the fourth estate hasn't been doing its job...

Jan 29, 2025 at 10:06 PM | Unregistered CommenterRobert Swan
Jan 29, 2025 at 5:50 PM | Registered Commentertomo

I see over at G Fawkes they are highlighting Labour forcing Cuadrilla to concrete its last viable shale gas wells. We are screwed unless Uncle Don's American gas and oil drives the prices down very soon!! Then lets see Labour spin how Orange Man Bad saved britain from going dark! 😂

Jan 29, 2025 at 11:06 AM | Unregistered CommenterMailman

The left really does have a hard on for control doesnt it.

Wont be long before any wrong thought will leave one branded as a right wing extremist...oh wait, Labours on that already!

Jan 29, 2025 at 11:01 AM | Unregistered CommenterMailman
Jan 29, 2025 at 4:29 AM | Registered Commentertomo

Robert

for me, ChatGPT, when first released publicly was a a bit of fun.... after some intense (for me as a dilettante) poking around I found three things that stood out - it wasn't very intelligent when confronted with some carefully chosen logic, there was some (VERY) crude prejudice injected by humans and if it hadn't been trained on adequate data then the likelihood of a useful and reliably correct answer was worse than a coin flip.

I can see the utility of automating some (complex) decisions - but as ever, with computing devices some basic sanity tests about the outcomes are prudent.... Watching and reading wrt AI and our present crop of politicians and media folk is, I find like spectating a zero sum game - no overarching value is being added and resources that could be usefully utilised for making things better are squandered on the next big thing.


The idea that the UK Labour Party, civil servants and non hard "science" academics opinions about AI are given credence by an utterly moronic media is exasperating.......

On the topic of designing chips there's a youtuber out there who's done a deep dive on NVidia's use of "AI" to design its chips - mostly, it struck me it was an exercise in the orchestration of simply colossal amounts of modelling - an example was given of the compute metrics required to work around the physics of process mask creation at the edge of what's possible at the incredibly small feature sizes needed to practically squeeze billions of transistors onto available silicon. It might have been the excellent "asianometry" guy.

Cartoonist Matt has a slightly sidewise take

I'm thinking there's some Theranos / Nikola goings on in AI world...

JoNova warns us .... There's dark mutterings about a crackdown on social media in the UK that are getting harder to ignore ....

Jan 29, 2025 at 3:52 AM | Registered Commentertomo

tomo,
I suppose it may not have been exactly consensual... a bit like Mugabe stealing a handshake from Jack Straw a while back. Starmer's wins on the revolting scale though.

As for the AI thing, I think (hope) it's the start of the bubble bursting. Was not greatly impressed with that fellow's explanation of Deepseek. Metaphors of "master craftsmen training apprentices" work well rhetorically, but what does it come down to in practical terms? Seems like it amounted to training on a smaller, more focussed and accurate data set.

That certainly helps for a narrow problem. Thing is, AI is being pushed as a giant leap forward from search engines: ask a question, here's the answer. Scaling up Deepseek's approach, we just need to bring up the quality of the global training set -- i.e. the whole internet. Quite a big task I think. What's more, once done, a plain search engine will be enough to reveal truth.

One kind of creature that appears in the horror genre is the shape shifter: the monster that uses your imagination so it can appear safe and unthreatening. The AI bubble is built on the same sort of thing. People have heard about neural nets, but those are a bit confusing. They assume others have checked it all out and just go ahead and use their own notions of "intelligence".

There are already some nifty things that have come from it, but I'm very confident there won't be anything to justify the amount of money being spent. Fortunes will be lost.

There was a comment at Jo Nova's yesterday about using AI to develop new silicon wafers for transistors. *Some* of them performed better than human-designed ones and the researchers couldn't explain why. Yes. Neither could the AI, I'm sure. The magic answers machine is worse than useless when its answers are sometimes bad. Croesus consults the Oracle: If you go to war, a great empire will fall. Not going to say which empire though.


Mailman,
Was perplexed wondering why you wanted to defend the US Office of Management and Budget, then it dawned on me who OMB was.

Jan 28, 2025 at 11:44 PM | Unregistered CommenterRobert Swan

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