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M Courtney, my wild guess - Second term governments never score well in polling before the election. That the Conservatives are level pegging with Labour is an interesting sign. People don't like to admit they're going to vote for the gits in power but when it comes time to X there's nobody looking. Conservatives and probably also UKIP don't like to admit their persuasion or even talk to pollsters. I suspect ex Cons UKIPers will return to their old parties. Cameron may be unpopular but he's not as much of a lame duck as he was at the last election. Add to that the number of people who don't want the SNP being Ed's puppet masters and we might see a real shake up.

Or maybe not.

May 6, 2015 at 8:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Thanks, M Courtney. No doubt someone will hold you to that in a couple of days. :)

But I really am interested, not just because of the strong cultural ties between Australia and the UK. It's also about the larger questions, especially about handling supra-national bodies like the EU and the UN.

I read somewhere today that the head of the Italian Navy said that "stopping the boats", as we have done, is simply not an option. For a start, why he should have a public opinion on this is a mystery, but perhaps our good friend omnologus could elaborate on that. Italian politics is certainly beyond the ken of people on the other side of the world. Indeed, some wags have suggested that it is a bit mysterious to those closer to home.

Mauritzio - what say you?

May 6, 2015 at 8:27 PM | Registered Commenterjohanna

Johanna, Speaking personally - I think this election is too close to call. So as a sceptic I make my prediction, justify it and then wait to see. I may well be wrong,

My Prediction:
The UK can be split into battle grounds. Adding them up gives the winner between Lab and Con.

-Scotland: Lab vs SNP. Predicted to go SNP (win for Conservatives).
-North of England: Lab mainly (win for Labour)
-Midlands: Lab vs Con. Very close to call but probably Labour due to manufacturing base and migration (win for Labour)
-Wales: Lab mainly but PC will do better due to media exposure (small win for Labour)
-South East England except London: Con mainly (win for Conservatives).
-London: Lab vs Con. Very close to call but probably Labour due to housing prices shrinking the Tory vote and sending them out to the Shires, and migration (win for Labour)
-South West England: LibDem vs Con. LibDems have lost student votes and the protest support (win for Conservatives).
-NI: Other parties who will oppose the SNP but don’t make up the numbers to be useful.

Total: 3 Conservative, 3 and a bit Labour.
Summary: Labour largest party (because of London) but need fringe support (LibDems, PC and Green) with no overall majority.

But I'm not willing to bet my mortgage on it.

May 6, 2015 at 7:33 PM | Registered CommenterM Courtney

I get the sense that BH readers, at least, are holding their collective breath about the election. Remarkably restrained, I must say.

As a danged furriner, can I just submit that the mere notion of SNP holding the balance of power is scary. We have had that in Australia, by other means, with the Greens and so-called Independents in the Senate. Dreadful.

Best of British to you all.

May 6, 2015 at 7:19 PM | Registered Commenterjohanna

Time was when "Waste not, want not" was sufficient. My old Mum found it so.

Some fascistic crapola here: http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/waste-not-want-not-reducing-livestocks-greenhouse-gas-emissions-uk

May 6, 2015 at 3:23 PM | Unregistered CommenterVictoria Sponge

We are expecting loud squeals of protest at this end, stew.

Mind you, they will still get plenty from publicly funded institutions such as universities.

Unlike the luvvie (Malcolm Turnbull) who is ostensibly in charge of the ABC, Pyne knows the enemy when he sees it.

If the Australian version of The Conversation (ha! some title!) has ever run more than 10% of material which at least acknowledges that Tony Abbott's government might be right about something, I'll walk down Martin Place backwards wearing a kilt and little else.

May 6, 2015 at 12:11 PM | Registered Commenterjohanna
May 6, 2015 at 12:01 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

May 6, 2015 at 5:48 AM | Registered Commenter stewgreen.
Ignore her. She is not coherent and not persuasive. And she's not famous enough to be noticed.

I do notice, however, that her list of murderous Deniers includes "Barack Obama, US President".
Of all the criticisms to make of the US President, that is an unusual one.

She's a tinfoil hat brigadier. Leave her be. This may be therapy.

May 6, 2015 at 10:42 AM | Registered CommenterM Courtney

For a quick laugh, here's today's xkcd.

May 6, 2015 at 10:23 AM | Registered CommenterHaroldW

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3069500/Greenpeace-fracking-advert-claimed-drilling-shale-gas-won-t-cut-energy-bills-banned-watchdog.html

Greenpeace fracking advert that claimed drilling for shale gas 'won't cut energy bills' is banned by watchdog

May 6, 2015 at 7:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

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