Unthreaded
M Courtney
You're right, of course, but there are weather patterns and fauna (birds especially) are not bad at reading the signs as any countryman will tell you.
If the Bewicks are coming in early then it's a brave man who bets against an early winter. How long it will be and how hard can be read from other signs.
Mike Jackson
Many people have suggested that the following would happen: Facing humiliation by China, India etc, climate alarmists would start to row back from the more outrageous predictions whilst simultaneously attempting to take credit for it, but still asking for more.Thus, from the BBC of course, Europe's climate change chief Commissioner Canete
"There is no complacency - but we if we had kept on going with business as usual (ever-rising carbon emissions), global temperature would have raised between 3.8 and 4.7C," he said.
"We estimate that current commitments achieve about 3C maximum. That's a big step, although clearly it's not enough."
Personally, I think Commissioner Canapé has a better ring to it.
michael hart
Job going for anyone interested:
Board Member of the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change (ASC)
http://publicappointments.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/appointment/board-member-adaptation-sub-committee/
ASC Board Members will be paid up to £19,800 for up to 36 days of work per year (including time preparing for meetings and travelling time). Reasonable travel and dependent care expenses are also paid. The roles are non-pensionable.
Essential criteria:
• Experience of working effectively as part of a multi-disciplinary team in delivering results;
• The demonstrated ability to contribute to the strategic development of the ASC, process and interpret complex information and offer well-developed analytical reasoning skills and judgement based on evidence; the ability to provide impartial, objective and pragmatic advice; experience of formulating or managing technical advice to others;
• The demonstrated ability to communicate and build relationships at all levels; strong interpersonal skills, including the ability to negotiate, persuade and build partnerships at all levels; and
• Candidates must be able to demonstrate a good knowledge of the range of the Sub-Committee’s work, including regional and country variation of climate impacts across the British Isles. Additionally, we are looking for specific expertise in the following areas for each post:
First post:
o Economic analysis: ability to provide analytical and strategic direction about the impacts (e.g. costs, benefits and risks) of alternative policies, regulations and other measures to adapt to climate change.
Second post:
o Private sector experience: real-world experience of how private firms make investment and related decisions.
Grumpy
It occurs to me that the swan's early arrival has less to do with the weather here in a few months time and more to do with the weather in Siberia right now.
It happens to be cold out east, right now.
That doesn't mean it will be exceptionally cold here shortly.
Unless the swan is an Ice Giant in disguise.
M Courtney
Heavens, Phillip! For the MO foreseeable future!! That's 85 years, isn't it?
I'm glad I'm in France where three stères of prime wood only costs 100€!
Mike Jackson
Mike Jackson: I'm about to get my oil tank topped up ready for the winter. If the current blocking high continues (and it is forecast to remain in place for the MO foreseeable future), then the cold air over Siberia could soon be arriving here.
Phillip Bratby
Phillip
I cam straight here to see if anyone else had picked up the Bewick swan story. Slimbridge reckon they have been keeping a record of the first arrival since 1963 so if they say this is the earliest "on record" I believe them.
I understand that "Record Breaker" (as they've called him) doesn't have any experience in climate science and has probaly never written a peer-reviewed paper in his life (nor created a computer model) but I'm afraid I trust his judgment on this more than the experts'.
Anyone not prepared for a hard winter would be well advised to take at least a few precautions.
Mike Jackson
More signs of the impact of global warming.
Britain faces longest winter in 50 years after earliest ever arrival of Siberian swan
It must be true as the BBC mentioned it too.
Phillip Bratby
@Jolly didn't you mean to put that Betts comment in the Betts thread ?
I see he had a big put down of the Emma Thompson story
"Ms Thompson spoke passionately and in no uncertain terms about 4°C warming by the 2030, and stated that “in a few years …. whole swathes of the Earth will become uninhabitable”. These statements do not reflect what the science actually says. (...wow steady on with the Hyperbolic language Richard)
- Does this matter? What’s the harm in a bit of exaggeration if it’s in a good cause? To my mind, there’s three reasons why it’s a problem.
-Firstly, making wild predictions that don’t come true obviously harms your credibility. ..."
I don't understand why that story is in the news section but somehow doesn't appear in the list of news stories ..none of which seem to mention CO2 fertilisation or CO2 benefits either.
- It does appear on the R Betts page where he reposts a Carbon Brief post "With each passing year the scale of the task looms ever larger. There are very real questions about whether or not the world will be able to stay below the two degree limit."
stewgreen
The Bewick's Swan made it onto BBC TV News I was watching at lunchtime. Climate Change wasn't mentioned in the item though.