"Perhaps I am too cynical...... "
Mar 21, 2020 at 8:36 AM Mark Hodgson

No, you are not.

The EU has never suffered financial recession. Governments, Companies, Households, Individuals etc all have to make cut backs when income falls. Luxury Goods and Vanity Projects are the first to be cut back.

"Management Consultants" charge a fat fee to go into struggling companies before announcing that a third of all employees and expenditure should be cut.

If the EU could engage the services of some German Management Consultants, they will recommend that Germany will not finance the EU's attitude of eating rich and fortified Gateau, while peasants are forced to eat cattle cake. The scaled down EU might survive, and be worth a second chance.

stewgreen, I corrected that to 23 days but the stuff I've read this morning puts it at 22. The figure comes from time of infection to onset of symptoms a median of 5 days and time from admission to hospital and death is about 18 days (assuming that there are ventillators). So someone catching the disease today won't drop dead today. Fatality rate is the number of people who die as a percentage of all the people infected. You can't use the current number of infected because the figures are still rising. Even if you stopped transmission totally today, people would continue to develop the disease, get sick, go to hospital and die. So the number of deaths keep rising for about 22/23 days afterwards.

Something like 50-80% of cases are symptomless. Some don't show symptoms for as long as 14 days before symptoms. Some shed the disease before they show symptoms. So you could be sat next to someone with it and not know. Not only can the disease be spread by hand/mouth as it can survive on surfaces for 3 days, it can remain in the air for several hours. So you could catch it in the pub from someone who sat at your table Wednesday if the pub's cleaning routine isn't very good.

It's estimated that without mitigation each person on average infects 2.6 people. That would result in 80% of the population getting infected. Fatality is estimated to be about 1% (with access to vetillators). The idea is to keep infections and thus critical cases to a level at which the hospitals can cope.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-triggers-deficit-rules-escape-clause-to-boost-public-spending/
Mar 21, 2020 at 8:28 AM Mark Hodgson

I am guessing that BoJo/Sunak activated the UK version of the EU's prearranged Economic Disaster Plan before the EU did.

If each country takes financial responsibility for measures instigated at home, this is going to make life very difficult for countries and regions that rely on the Tourist Euro and Pound

"So, when the climate doesn't change and doesn't make a difference to people's lives, that's because it's "harder to spot" where we live. If we can't spot it, is it a crisis?

Mar 21, 2020 at 8:14 AM Mark Hodgson"

The Green Blob Peak Credibility Crisis is going to rise to Unprecedented levels throughout 2020.

I posted my last comment before I noticed this:

"Recession 'INEVITABLE' in Germany, Bundesbank chief warns as country mulls lockdown amid coronavirus pandemic"

https://www.rt.com/business/483696-germany-recession-coronavirus-pandemic/

"The coronavirus pandemic will trigger a serious downturn in the German economy, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Deutsche Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann has said.
Recession in Germany is "now inevitable," Weidmann told Die Welt newspaper in an interview published on Saturday.

When asked how bad the economic downturn will be, Weidemann said that all efforts first must be focused on stopping the spread on the coronavirus with steps such as social distancing. He also noted that "drastic measures" like curfew restrictions may be considered by the government."

Perhaps I am too cynical, but it's quite a coincidence that the EU announces the abandonment of pretty much all its rules at the very moment when European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Deutsche Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann has said recession in Germany is "now inevitable."

When recession wasn't just inevitable, but a very real fact of life, when Greece was enduring catastrophic economic conditions, the EU insisted on making things worse and sticking to the rules. The German banks were, of course, re-paid.

Returning to the EU, if one was truly cynical, it might be noticed that when Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy et al were facing economic crises of their own a few years back, rules were rules and couldn't be bent - it was vital that German bank loans were repaid. Now that the German economy is facing meltdown, rules can be abandoned.

Very sensible, but there's another of the EU's core principles abandoned:

"EU triggers deficit rules ‘escape clause’ to boost public spending
Commission President von der Leyen clears countries to pump ‘as much as they need’ into economies struck by coronavirus."

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-triggers-deficit-rules-escape-clause-to-boost-public-spending/

"Governments can spend their way out of the economic fallout from the coronavirus without fear of reproach after the European Commission today put the EU’s deficit rules on ice.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the announcement in a video online, telling the public that “national governments can pump [money] into the economy as much as they need.”

Von der Leyen triggered the rulebook's “general escape clause,” which is reserved for when the EU or the eurozone faces a severe economic downturn or negative growth.

“This is new and never done before,” the German said. EU finance ministers are set to rubber-stamp the decision on Monday when they’re tentatively scheduled to meet by videoconference for this month's Ecofin Council.

Countries will also be able to offer companies state aid without fear of punishment, von der Leyen added, referring to temporary measures that she unveiled Thursday.

“The state aid rules that we have in place since yesterday are the most flexible ever,” she said. “And we will do more to support you and your family through this crisis.”"

Freedom of movement, Schengen area, state aid rules, Stability & Growth pact, all ditched, and green new deal tottering on the brink. I'm not criticising - all are sensible responses to the coronavirus crisis IMO. But I do think it will make it difficult for the EU to insist on restoring these "core principles" in the future. If the EU then returned to being an organisation concerned only with promoting free trade within its borders, and encouraging co-operation and friendship, and stopped seeking to interfere with most areas of people's lives, reduced its bureaucracy and budget, then I'd be happy to contemplate re-joining. However, I'm not holding my breath while I wait for that to happen. It'll be a long wait...

Mar 21, 2020 at 8:14 AM Mark Hodgson

The game of "Chris Packham Snap!" has just been invented. The idea has some merits for the Country.

"The Guardian confuses CO2 emissions and plastic waste"
Plastic containers for food storage that are simple to clean and wipe down with bleach should be making a comeback. People are going to be reminded why the food industry and home Sanitisers have loved plastic for years

Chris Packham at the BBC is wailing and gnashing his teeth, but it is not all bad news:

"The coronavirus outbreak could set back efforts to tackle environmental issues by years, TV naturalist Chris Packham has warned.

He said a preoccupation with fighting the pandemic could move climate change down governments' agendas.

The presenter said the outbreak could affect natural landscapes with nature reserves going unmaintained.

But he added it could give wildlife a "respite" and urged people to "engage with nature".

Packham warned "another deadly effect" of the virus could be a failure to deal with climate change and biodiversity loss.

"If this turns out to be an enforced break in dealing with these issues and we lose the impetus we have gained, that could set us back years. Climate change isn't going away," he said.

The UK is due to host the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow in November, although the foreign secretary Dominic Raab said on Thursday there was "no cast iron guarantee" it would go ahead."