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Discussion > Covid 19 stuff

getting warm....

- one wonders if the US Embassy guys were informed laymen or experienced microbiologists?

Those disappeared mobile phone users are returning to the epidemic arithmetic....

Apr 14, 2020 at 6:57 PM | Registered Commentertomo

H/t our host's twitter feed - this website may be of interest to some here:

https://lockdownsceptics.org/

"On Friday, April 3rd I wrote an article for the Telegraph about the tsunami of criticism I’d received after publishing a sceptical piece earlier that week about the Government’s lockdown strategy. That piece appeared in the Critic and shortly after it was published I started trending on Twitter, with thousands of people denouncing me, often using intemperate language. In the Telegraph article I expressed my disappointment about this reaction and said people shouldn’t feel shy about criticising the lockdown even if those views put them at odds with the majority. Our leaders are making decisions every day that will affect all our lives for years to come and it’s right that we should debate their options in the public square.

In the days that followed the publication of the Telegraph article I was contacted by dozens of people, most of whom shared my reservations and were frustrated that the Government’s decision to lock down the country wasn’t being adequately challenged. Some had tried to get their views published in newspapers, either as letters or articles, but without success. That’s why I’ve decided to set up this website. The idea is for it to serve as a hub for sceptical articles, papers and interviews that have appeared elsewhere, as well as a platform for lockdown sceptics to air their views in the form of comments. (I also welcome rebuttals of those views. You can see a thoughtful response to my piece in the Critic by Sam Bowman here, as well as my reply to Sam’s critique here.) Although I believe the lockdown needs to be dialled back, I’m not absolutely certain of that and am open to having my mind changed. The critical thing is that we should have an informed public debate abut it. This isn’t a decision that should be “left to the experts”, as some people believe. To invoke David Hume’s famous distinction, scientific knowledge can tell you what is; it cannot tell you what you ought to do.

I’ve done my best to get across the main sceptical arguments in the form of questions. If you click on one, it will take you to a new page where I’ve tried to summarise the issue concerned and then linked to the best articles, papers and interviews I can find on the topic. If you’ve written a sceptical blog post that you’d like me to link to, or seen something you think is interesting, email me at realtobyyoung@gmail.com. In this way I hope to gradually build up a useful resource for thinking about how long we should keep the lockdown in place and what the exit strategy should be.

If you want to post comments, try and avoid conspiracy theories. If you believe 5G masts are linked to the spread of coronavirus, this site isn’t for you. It’s important that we all keep clear heads in the current crisis. And if possible, try not to engage in too much partisan point-scoring. (I realise that’s a bit rich coming from me.) Most sceptics will be small ‘c’ conservatives because we believe in liberty and are horrified by the confinement of people in their homes and… well, because scepticism is at the core of our political philosophy. But there’s no reason liberals shouldn’t be sceptical too. In Sweden, the Government’s more laissez-faire approach to managing the outbreak (the strategy our Government was pursuing before it was frightened into changing course by the Imperial College paper on March 16th) is broadly supported by the country’s progressive elites. The remarkable enthusiasm for the lockdown currently exhibited by our own metropolitan elite – and their ferocious hostility towards anyone who questions it – isn’t inevitable. Perhaps we can help to change their minds, assuming they don’t change ours first.

The important thing is that we have an informed debate, regardless of which side wins. I’ll leave you with the words of Pericles, the Prime Minister’s political lode star: “Instead of looking on discussion as a stumbling-block in the way of action, we think it an indispensable preliminary to any wise action at all.”"

Apr 14, 2020 at 7:34 PM | Unregistered CommenterMark Hodgson
Apr 14, 2020 at 9:15 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Sometimes Scott Adams strikes the nail squarely on the head.

I guess we know why China reopened the wet markets. They were not the source of the virus.

Apr 14, 2020 at 11:03 PM | Registered Commentertomo

"... the words of Pericles, the Prime Minister’s political lode star: “Instead of looking on discussion as a stumbling-block in the way of action, we think it an indispensable preliminary to any wise action at all.”"

Apr 14, 2020 at 7:34 PM Mark Hodgson"

The antidote to the paralysis of the Precautionary Principle, is to get on with it, deal with the problems as they arise, and hope that on balance, the pros outweigh the cons.

The Precautionary Principle would involve Lockdown continuing until no Coronavirus exists in the UK, and it is possible to test and screen it out, at all means of entry.

Lockdown cannot prevent the spread of Coronavirus within the UK, only slow its spread.

No vaccine is likely within 6 months.

Drugs, combinations of drugs and treatments targeted at dealing with the major and fatal consequences are improving by the week, but until there are reliable statistics from within the UK NHS Hospital ICUs, it is not easy to tell the difference between National differences, Nationalist Issues and PR Spin.

By May, the UK should be in a better position to cope with, and understand the consequences of everyone becoming infected, and how that can be spread out over as long a time period as possible.

Giving people a Green Light Identity Card so that they can demonstrate they have survived Coronavirus, should be a priority NOW, so they can get back to their normal employment, or be temporarily redeployed. We still don't know how many people are Locked Down, when they are not at risk and do not pose any risk.

If the technology exists, why not test people as they queue to get into Supermarkets? Supermarkets, their staff and their customers are currently the most likely source of infection spreading, and monitoring its spread in different areas.

Apr 15, 2020 at 7:27 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/14/dr-faucis-own-career-making-medical-research-had-no-clinical-control-group-used-historic-controls-coronavirus/

Apr 15, 2020 at 7:55 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

The whole article is worth reading, along with links

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/trump-stops-funds-to-the-who-because-it-only-has-one-major-job-and-it-failed/

"If the WHO was controlled by Donald Trump, the socialist mainstream media would be all over its failures. But because the UN is a mini World Government, effectively The Vatican of left wing loving writers, it gets a free pass.

Enough is Enough. Here’s that petition again, just in case you haven’t already signed it, but we need to send letters to the media, and to our ministers to find out why we send money to a group that is worse than useless?

Call for the resignation of Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director General
Not only do we not need Tedros Adhanom, we don’t need the WHO, The UN, or The ABC and BBC either. None of them were serving Australians, Brits, or Americans, or even Ethiopians. How many will now succumb to Coronavirus that might have been saved?"

Apr 15, 2020 at 8:09 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

https://order-order.com/2020/04/15/starmer-asks-exit-strategy-criteria/

Apr 15, 2020 at 9:53 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Straightforward post on the "pseudoscience" site:

"SAMURAI April 12, 2020 at 12:26 am
A combination of Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin and zinc supplements has been shown anecdotally to be the most effective cure and prophylactic against COVID19.

Hydroxychloroquine is one of only a few ionophores which can pass through cellular membranes and deliver zinc inside a cell. Zinc has been proven to stop COVID19 RNA from replicating, which is why it’s 70~90% effective. The key is to take these drugs before too much lung damage occurs.

Doctors who have prescribed Hydroxychloroquine from many decades for lupus and rheumatoid arthritis attest that it is very safe and only if 400mg/day is taken for over 5 years, are a few side Long-term effects like ventricular arrhythmia (1 in 1,000) and retinal damage (1%) observed. The chances of any of these side effects occurring over just 2 months of taking Hydroxychloroquine for COVID19 is nil…

Occasionally, patients have mild allergic reactions but it’s very rare and only suffer mild rashes and/or some vomiting/diarrhea.

The main reason Leftist media, political and bureaucrat hacks are so rabidly anti-Hydroxychloroquine is that Trump is for it; it’s just a glaring example of Trump Derangement Syndrome…"

Not keen on the odds for retinal damage, but that is long term. Only 5 days or so for covid19. Would Phil Clarke take it should he be infected? I would.

Apr 15, 2020 at 8:34 PM | Unregistered CommenterCharly

The CCP lies ( 20m video ).


https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-quietly-puts-lockdowns-on-wuhan-residential-compounds-as-virus-continues-to-spread_3312456.html

Apr 15, 2020 at 8:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterCharly

Swiss Propaganda Research

Facts about Covid-19

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/#latest

Apr 16, 2020 at 1:42 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

The managing director of a German environmental laboratory suspects that the inhabitants of the northern Italian region of Lombardy are particularly susceptible to viral infections such as Covid19 due to a notoriously high legionella contamination: „If the lungs are weakened by a viral infection, as in the current situation, bacteria have an easy job, can negatively influence the course of the disease and cause complications.“ In Lombardy, regional pneumonia outbreaks had already occurred in the past due to evaporation cooling systems contaminated with legionella.

Apr 16, 2020 at 1:55 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

The Luxembourger Tageblatt reports that Sweden’s „relaxed strategy on Covid19 seems to work“. Despite minimal measures, the situation seems to be „clearly calming down at the moment“. A huge field hospital that was set up near Stockholm remains closed due to lack of demand. The number of patients in intensive care units remains constant at a low level or is even slightly declining. „There are many vacancies in intensive care units in all Stockholm hospitals. We are approaching the flattening of the illness curve,“ explained a senior physician at the Karolinska Klinik. So far there have been about 900 deaths with Covid19 in Sweden.
A direct comparison between the UK (with lockdown) and Sweden (without lockdown) shows that the two countries are almost identical in terms of case numbers and deaths per population.

Apr 16, 2020 at 2:18 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

Forgot to blockquote

The Luxembourger Tageblatt reports...

Apr 16, 2020 at 2:27 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

Visualization of the positive rate (# positive tests/# total tests) for Switzerland. #SARSCoV2 #COVID19


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVfWWtZX0AAZeUA?format=png&name=large

Apr 16, 2020 at 3:07 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

Another data point.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699v1.full.pdf

Apr 16, 2020 at 9:25 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Apr 16, 2020 at 9:25 AM Phil Clarke
"Mar 26, 2020 at 6:15 PM | Phil Clarke
You are clearly hoping that the death toll will exceed that due to corrupted Climate Science.
Mar 27, 2020 at 12:12 AM golf charlie"

For an approach more rational than that provided by dedicated Hockey Teamsters, it is necessary to avoid decisions based on predetermined political conclusions.

https://conservativewoman.co.uk/is-malaria-drug-saving-lives-including-the-pms/

Apr 16, 2020 at 10:21 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

It's useful l suppose to have Phil scuttling about bringing back stuff ...wagging his tail.

Apr 16, 2020 at 2:34 PM | Registered Commentertomo

I hear not much of anything about Public Health England's Milton Keynes "national testing centre" - populated with (various) machines requisitioned from various and diverse working locations around the country.

I wonder if moving a diverse selection of working machines from working locations and then finding skilled operators who are happy to relocate to Milton Keynes and re-commission those machines in a suitably virus aware environment and set up a chain of custody infrastructure for the samples is going to be up and working - by the time the lock-down ends....?

Anybody seen any updates?

PHE PPE ?

Apr 16, 2020 at 7:04 PM | Registered Commentertomo

PHE PPE ?

Apr 16, 2020 at 7:04 PM tomo

They will fit nicely, but how is anyone supposed to tell them apart from Hockey Teamsters?

Apr 16, 2020 at 8:02 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

China admits that they struggle to do maths and statistics honestly.

This proves that China is more honest than John Cook's 97% of Climate Scientists.

Apr 17, 2020 at 8:08 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

gc

it's worse than you might think.... imho a lot worse. The Chinese have been giving the western eco-loons and Greens exactly what those twats want to hear and regurgitate - regardless of the the actual facts of the matter - to the point where the ChiComs have gotten a tad sloppy with the distribution of documents relating to their true purpose.

Robert Spalding speaks and reads Chinese - he has spent considerable time in China and on matters related to the Chinese Communist Party's very deliberate agenda going forwards with respect (the opposite actually...) to non Chinese countries and their peoples.

He got dunked from the present US administration imho because the trod on the toes of powerful vested interests.

This from 2019 is well worth a watch for anybody who's curious about the Chinese Government's activities and intent.

I have visited China for work and recreation and as far as I am concerned Spalding's analysis feels entirely authentic and rings very true indeed.

Apr 17, 2020 at 11:14 AM | Registered Commentertomo

China conspiracy goes mainstream says Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/14/the-washington-post-goes-rogue-china-lab-in-focus-of-coronavirus-outbreak/amp/

Apr 17, 2020 at 9:02 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

"This from 2019 is well worth a watch for anybody who's curious about the Chinese Government's activities and intent.

I have visited China for work and recreation and as far as I am concerned Spalding's analysis feels entirely authentic and rings very true indeed.

Apr 17, 2020 at 11:14 AM tomo"

I have never been to China, but do know quite a few corporate buyers and individuals who have done very nicely out of their visits, and been impressed with the "can do" attitude of potential suppliers that have been backed up by results. Show them anything, and they will produce it for half the price, AND make a good profit. That was 15+ years ago.

More recently, some of the more sinister aspects of China's ambitions have become apparent, simply by reading between the lines of stories written about China's interests in foreign soil, particularly if it is good for food production and has oil and coal beneath it. I have made comments about these ambitions on this blog.

The UN has tended to be divided between countries that would always side with the US, NATO etc, and those that would side with the USSR. The original Iranian Revolution saw the emergence of a Moslem Bloc vote, but that receded when Iran and Iraq decided to go to war.

The Russians invaded Afghanistan, and turned it into their own Vietnam War, and then Saddam Hussein did his bit for Islamic Unity, followed by Osama bin Ladin.

The World has ignored China’s increasing influence around the World, welcoming its intervention in Zimbabwe and possibly Venezuela, both of which would be good to holds in distant continents without the deployment of military invasion forces.

I have a wary respect for China, and don't think they should be ignored. China would love to get a toe hold in the EU and UK, ideally with a sea port. Parts of Greece and Italy may be even more welcoming to Chinese suitors, as sticking with the EU just increases debt.

Apr 17, 2020 at 9:06 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

About 3 weeks ago I posted this:

Deaths in the US just crossed 1,000. 247 yesterday and doubling every three days. There will be another 1,000 by the end of the weekend, then from early next week about a thousand a day. Assuming no reduction in the exponential rate, they will reach a 9/11 (3,000) deaths every day by the weekend after.

The first part proved accurate, however I was immensely pleased to be proved wrong in the second part of my projection: over the last few days the daily US death rate appeared to plateau earlier than anticipated. Until today, that is, when daily deaths spiked up to 4,591, according to the WSJ.

Simultaneously, the democratically-elected Commander-In-Chief announces the crisis has 'peaked'.

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

- Warren Buffet.

Apr 17, 2020 at 11:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke