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Discussion > The end of the Great Delusion is at hand

Radical rodent

I suggest a test.

Venus in thermodynamic equilibrium. The amount of energy absorbed tthe climate system will be equal to the Outward Longwave Radiation (OLR).

Go to a good astronomy site and look up the OLR for Venus.

If Huffman Is correct, the OLR will be 2600W/m2.

If I am correct the OlR will be 780W/m^2.

Nov 18, 2016 at 8:37 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Entropic man: that is assuming that the thermodynamic balance is in equilibrium. I thought we had long agreed that that situation rarely (if ever) happens? That is why this planet has had such variable conditions over the centuries, millennia and eons!

Anyhooo… Cursory searching brings up no-one who does not declare an axe to grind, either explicitly or implicitly; the best I have found involves an awful lot of dodgy maths, none of which involves OLR, and gives completely different answers, anyway.

Could you offer your explanation of the odd coincidences involved in this situation? I don’t know about you, but I do not really believe in coincidence.

Nov 18, 2016 at 10:30 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

ACK & SandyS

Interesting that we can make our own personal observations about "less extreme cooling in winter".

Given the title of the thread, "The end of the Great Delusion is at hand", perhaps there never has been any warming at all, just less cooling. The missing "Hotspot" was never missing, it never existed.

All the terrifying weather events that are not happening, are not happening because it isn't any warmer, just not so flipping cold.

On the basis of past performance around honourable statistics, and statistical honesty, should a climate science expert be trusted, if they disagree?

Climate Science only has 100 days to save itself from going bust.

Nov 18, 2016 at 1:36 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

The Science of Doom explored this problem with Venus a few years ago, with some unusal conclusions, as well as figures that seem completely different from yours, EM. Perhaps you would like to put him right. (I would try, but find him pedantic to the point of annoyingly so, as well as being right far too often for my comfort, and having the ability to talk down such that, after reading any comments he has made, one ends up feeling about an inch tall.)

As for warm winters, Minty, Gwen, &c: yes, that has been my observation, too. While often pleasant, our summers have not tended to be scorchers, but our winters have tended to be quite mild. It should be remembered that not all temperatures have to rise for the average to rise; if the minimum temperatures rise 2° and the maximum drops 1°, the average will have risen by 0.5°, yet we can still complain about the cold (as well as being told that we should be scared of rising temps).

Nov 18, 2016 at 4:35 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Ravishing Rattie.

" I .....find him pedantic to the point of annoyingly so, as well as being right far too often for my comfort, and having the ability to talk down such that, after reading any comments he has made, one ends up feeling about an inch tall"

Heart missed a beat, had to take a deep breath, then carefully read who you were referring to. Sighed with relief. Resolve not to challange you so much, even when I (mistakenly) believe you to be ever so slightly inaccurate.

Nov 18, 2016 at 5:07 PM | Unregistered CommenterACK

You do realise, Minty, that almost anything I now say to mollify you could so easily be seen as an unpleasant and back-handed compliment. You can put me into some sticky situations, especially when you attempt humour.

Nov 18, 2016 at 6:05 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Ravishing Rattie. Remember this?
"Heheheh… We Rodents can be very sneaky!"

SNAP

Nov 18, 2016 at 8:04 PM | Unregistered CommenterACK

Radical Rodent, forget the back-handed compliment, try a fore-hand smash!

It is a shame the climate faithful chose Marrakech, not Casablanca in Morocco for their doomed affair to end so tragically.

Nov 18, 2016 at 10:02 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Judging by the tenacity of the true believers, while the age of climate hype delusion is most certainly ending, it is clear that many of those deluded have little interest in being freed from their delusions.

Nov 18, 2016 at 10:41 PM | Unregistered Commenterhunter

GC: would love to – trouble is, I’ve slipped on the grass, and just found that my racquet has no string. I’m sure I’ll come up with a quick and witty response in a few years.

Hunter: yes, the end of the Great Delusion is at hand, and the gravy train is soon to hit the buffers. The carnage should be quite interesting, as so many of the passengers switch hats to “sceptic”.

Nov 18, 2016 at 11:31 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Radical Rodent & hunter,
I feel very confident that the survivors of the Great Green Gravy Train Crash, will claim that they had predicted it all along, and it was an inevitable consequence of thermal expansion buckling one rail to the left, as frost-heave raised the other one right, and an ill-wind blew away the flood sodden central sleepers.

Meanwhile, people are still dying, and will continue to do so, of thirst, hunger, treatable disease etc, because climate science wasted £€$billions that could have saved them, on lavish political parties, air fares and lawyers fees, all with the approval and encouragement of the United Nations.

Nov 19, 2016 at 12:27 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golfCharlie.

"It is a shame the climate faithful chose Marrakech, not Casablanca in Morocco for their doomed affair to end so tragically."

But Marrakesh is where Homer Simpson bought a monkey's paw that grants wishes, and don't the Climaterati need one.

Nov 19, 2016 at 8:46 AM | Unregistered CommenterACK

Radical rodent

The figures for Venus are less precisely known than for Earth. They vary by a few % depending on the calibration of each probe.

Since you trust Science of Doom, why not contact him directly and ask? Based on his figures, I suggest that he would quote an OLR of 633W/m^

Nov 19, 2016 at 9:21 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Thank you, Entropic man, for providing yet more evidence that you do not read what is written. Please come back when you learn that simple task.

Nov 19, 2016 at 9:42 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Hunter. I think the Great Delusion is that "the age of climate hype delusion is ending". Could be wrong, and Trump MIGHT constitute a strong catalyst for change if he chooses to expend sufficient political capital. However, I expect him to be too busy on sorting out the economy. Depriving people of the climate pork-barrel will be HARD.

Nov 19, 2016 at 10:45 AM | Unregistered CommenterACK

ACK, it may turn out that skeptics are too hopeful and that the climate deluded are too tenacious and greedy to be disabused of their obsession. CS Lewis speaks to the human weakness of pridefully holding on to that which is wrong no matter the evidence to the contrary rather movingly in The Great Divorce. You raise an interesting insight. As to cutting off the pork the climate deluded have become accustomed to, I think ending that will not actually be so difficult. My bet is that it will turn out that a surprisingly large number of countries are secretly tired of the transparently hypocritical arrogant nonsense the climate community seeks to impose.

Nov 19, 2016 at 12:02 PM | Unregistered Commenterhunter

ACK, was Homer Simpson modelled on James Hansen, as the "Doh!" moments keep coming, thicker and faster.

I still haven't a clue about the irradiative forcing of a Venusian pork pie, but this is beginning to sound like the Titanic's design team maintaining the infallibility of their "Unsinkable" design throughout the Inquiry into the sinking of the Titanic during May and June 1912.

No attempt was ever made to salvage the Titanic, it was declared "sunk without trace", but at least some lessons were learnt fron the survivors.

Nov 19, 2016 at 1:28 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golf charlie
The Titanic is an interesting story, she was designed by Alexander Carlisle or Thomas Andrews depending on who you believe. She had two sister ships, Olympic "Old Reliable" and Britannic which was mined in 1915 whilst serving as a hospital ship and sank in less than an hour. Two 50,000 ton sister ships sinking very quickly shows they were far from unsinkable. Another good design brought down by real life experience.

Nov 19, 2016 at 1:45 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

SandyS, the Brittanic had a greater width or beam to accommodate a double hull, to make her more resistant to the hull being pierced. It is presumed that she hit a mine, possibly a torpedo, an event she was not designed to withstand.

The Titanic was billed as being "Unsinkable", because she was not going to be the "fastest", in the advertising hype of the time.

Climate Science claims to be the best. It has never found a mistake in any of its own hyper expensive, overhyped work. Unpaid volunteers from other fields have had to do that for them, and are never thanked.

Nov 19, 2016 at 3:03 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Depriving people of the climate pork-barrel will be HARD.

Nov 19, 2016 at 10:45 AM | Unregistered CommenterACK

He'll get plenty of help and advice from Republicans in US states where the climate-force is weak. If you look at where most of the hard-core global warming priests preach, you'll find those states voted Democrat. Not even Donald Trump would hope to win California/Colorado/New York etc next time (would he?...), and so has no incentive to try. That's my understanding of US electoral-college electioneering. Those states now probably expect to be punished financially at the federal level. They rolled the dice, and lost.

Nov 19, 2016 at 4:13 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

michael hart, all the people who have been made redundant and lost their livelihoods, standards, and quality of life, due to policies enacted as a consequence of flawed climate science, will find it very hard to feel sympathy for the deluded incompetents having to face an unhappy Christmas, and uncertain New Year.

2016 will be remembered as the year Climosaurs stopped ruling and ruining the Earth.

Nov 19, 2016 at 5:16 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golfCharlie. Wish I was able to share your optimism, but I don't. Once before you believed change would happen (after political.changes in the Tory party following Brexit) only for nada. Are you laying yourself open to further disappointment after Trumpomania? The climaterati establishment are well entrenched.

Nov 19, 2016 at 6:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterACK

Radical rodent

Sorry, I've lost interest in arguing with you. Feel free to retain your delusions.

Nov 19, 2016 at 7:03 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Most felicitous compliments are due to Penfold, the BH slayer of dragons who has finally cast out the fiery EM!

Nov 19, 2016 at 8:31 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Thank you, Dung, but I am not in this to “win”, and am a bit sad that Entropic man is withdrawing from the opportunity to have his horizons broadened, much as he has resisted it, so far. I seek facts, not argument, but will argue to test the veracity of facts; sadly, those like EM &c seem to have a preconceived notion of what the “facts” should be, and will twist heaven and earth to “prove” themselves right. I have no preconceived notions (which sounds horribly arrogant, but ignore that), so will challenge anyone presenting “facts” I am suspicious of, and am happy to present my own knowledge in order to correct my own gaps. I do feel I have an instinct about dodgy claims; to date, nothing has led me to think that my instinct has let me down – and my instincts are, that, with the present changes developing in the world order, the end of this whole charade is hoving into sight.

Nov 19, 2016 at 9:29 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent