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Discussion > The end of the Great Delusion is at hand

Radical Rodent

Husband/Huffman

Some of the right letters, and curiously, in the right order.

Nov 16, 2016 at 11:22 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Radical rodent

I do not care when you last said that global warming was not happening.

I am just pleased that you have become a lukewarmer.

Nov 17, 2016 at 9:06 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Entropic man: ooh, I am glad you raised that subject again… (stop groaning, you at the back!)

Just to recap, the “Environmental Climate Sensitivity” (ECS) is a measure of how much the temperature of the atmosphere will rise for every doubling of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. It remains the subject of a great deal of debate, and has not yet been determined, though there are claims that it could be anywhere between <1°C and 8°C, though there are hypotheses that it could be as high as 13°C. Should the Earth move as close to the Sun as Venus presently is, the increased concentration of solar radiation would raise the temperature of the atmosphere, in its present constitution, to about 66°C.

Is there any part of this, so far, that you can disagree with?

If the answer is no (which it should be, as much of it is what you have told me), let’s carry on…

Venus has long been known to have an atmosphere, and was the focus of a lot of investigation, with satellites being sent to it fairly early in our space programmes. The first to descend towards its surface was crushed by the intense pressure of the atmosphere before it even reached the surface. Since then, it has been determined that the surface pressure on Venus is about 90 times that of Earth, with temperatures similarly higher (~467°C); it has also been determined that the constitution of the Venusian atmosphere is about 97% CO2. A lot of people have claimed (and still claim, who knows?) that this high concentration of CO2 is why the Venusian surface temperatures are so high – “It’s the runaway greenhouse effect!” Others disagree. Some have gone as far as investigating the temperature of the Venusian atmosphere at altitudes where the pressure is at Earth-equivalent (for brevity, let’s refer to it as 1 atmosphere, or 1 at.); there, they have made the startling discovery that it is 66°C – the same as the Earth’s surface temperature would be, were it the same distance from the Sun! What has become of environmental sensitivity? 97% is a little over 11 doublings of our present CO2 concentration; why is the temperature not at least 11°C higher?

“Ah,” you will say, “that is because of the albedo effect!” Good point, though suspiciously coincidental that it should just so happen to lower the temperature from whatever it “should” be to what Earth’s would be. Can planetary albedo reduce atmospheric temperatures by at least 11°C, or as much as 143°C? Figures I have seen in papers about Earth’s albedo and its effects on surface temperatures suggest not, as they indicate that its effects are just small decimals of a degree, at most. However, Mr Huffman’s calculations, which he has made freely available to all and sundry (and are, I shall admit, way beyond my comprehension, even though I am not a blonde – but I have seen no-one else take them apart, either), take into account albedo, and he has found that it has no effect whatsoever, thus can be discounted. His conclusions are that it is not the composition of planetary atmosphere that determines the surface temperatures, but the distance of the planet from the principle energy source within the system (in our case, the Sun), and the density of that atmosphere. Quite why that is in denial of the second law of thermodynamics you will have to explain very, very carefully to me.

Oh, and please note: I have NEVER said that there has been no warming since the Little Ice Age; the evidence for that is pretty substantial. In fact, I have often expressed my gratitude that it has happened, and prefer that it continue to warm, rather than start to cool. However, it should also be noted that the longest-running temperature record (Central England Temperatures, or CET) does show the temperature rise to be pretty much negligible.

Nov 17, 2016 at 10:32 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Radical Rodent, perhaps EM should be congratulated for trending towards "Luke Warm".

Whenever the likes of Nic Lewis mentions ECS, he is met with howls of protest, suggesting that most of climate science is unnaturally over sensitive.

Nov 17, 2016 at 11:50 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Judith Curry has been discussing models and ECS, and it has been updated.

https://judithcurry.com/2016/11/12/climate-models-for-lawyers/#more-22472

With NASA's Climate Division looking down both barrels of Uncertainty, less extravagant models with decreased sensitivity, may evolve quite rapidly, without interference from the Hockey Team.

The CEI (Competitive Enterprise Institute) may now have some direct links to the US EPA, and the CEI have recognised some brave people who have stood upto some howling ill-wind from climate science

Nov 17, 2016 at 2:11 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Groan

Nov 17, 2016 at 2:38 PM | Unregistered CommenterACK

Every year CEI hosts an annual dinner gala and presents the Julian L. Simon Memorial Award. The Simon award honors the work of the late economist, winner of the Simon–Ehrlich wager. Award winners have included:

2015: Vernon L. Smith
2014: John Tierney
2013: Deirdre McCloskey
2012: Matt Ridley
2011: Robert J. Smith
2010: Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick (joint award)
2009: Richard Tren
2008: Václav Klaus
2007: Indur Goklany
2006: John Stossel
2005: Barun Mitra
2003: Bjørn Lomborg
2002: Robert L. Bradley
2001: Stephen Moore

Myron Ebell may recognise some of those names, as Climate Science has never thanked them, for finding defects in the Official Peer Reviewed Climate Science Quality Control Procedure.

Myron Ebell could simply ask for reasons why US Taxpayer funded climate science, should NOT be subjected to Quality Control procedures as directed by the EPA under his approval.

Nov 17, 2016 at 3:21 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

However, it should also be noted that the longest-running temperature record (Central England Temperatures, or CET) does show the temperature rise to be pretty much negligible.

Not really.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/


Huffman doesn't really prove that albedo makes no difference, he just asserts it as a fact, and the height at which he claims equivalence with Earth just happens to be the zone where the sulphuric acid clouds that give Venus its albedo lurk.

Nov 17, 2016 at 5:11 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Thank you, Mr Clarke. However, I would have thought that a rise of less than 1°C over 230 years could be considered pretty negligible, especially as we are told to be aware (and fearful) of a rise of up to 4 times that in the next 80 years. As an aside, it would be interesting to know how “homogenised” those temperatures are.

You should also note that Mr Huffman was aware of the clouds, and suggested that they might be why there was a small anomaly in the temperature equivalents in the given table; the results with all other levels of pressure were remarkably consistent.

By the way, have you worked out why he started at the altitude where the pressure was 1 at., and then only went higher?

Nov 17, 2016 at 5:33 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Phil Clarke, so where do you think Climate Science made their biggest mistakes then? By next financial year, many people formerly in Climate Science may be wondering the same. Or are you still denying climate science ever made any mistakes?

Wouldn't it be better for climate science to get honest now, before the next year's budgets are decided? Budgets, unlike temperature records, can be predetermined in advance.

Nov 17, 2016 at 5:46 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

What about 1.5C since 1880?

Nov 17, 2016 at 5:50 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

More on that insignificant CET.

Nov 17, 2016 at 5:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Is that your best attempt at cherry-picking? Do try harder – there must be far more dramatic examples in there…

Oh, yes… and what about the early start to the skiing in Europe, this year, or the “dump” of snow causing mayhem in Stockholm? Two events I know you will dismiss as “weather not climate”, yet you cannot accept the same for a warm December – such is more “proof” of warming (panic!), not mere weather. (Odd how you choose to ignore the unusually cold December of 2010 (11?). That doesn’t fit your narrative, though, does it?)

Nov 17, 2016 at 6:39 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Phil Clarke, are the next financial year's budgets in the US and UK going to be mulled on and formulated over a warm Christmas and New Year? The Alps and Sweden are reporting record snow for November, and the UK seems set to catch a few shovels full before December.

Is Grant Foster/Tamino's Open Mind going to write an honest update assessment based on weather or climate?

Nov 17, 2016 at 6:50 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Radical rodent

All right. Phil Clarke and I explained this to you before, but I'll go through it one more time.

The solar insolation at Venus is 2600W/m^2. 1820W/m^2 becomes albedo, reflected back into space and leaving 780W to warm the atmosphere.

By coincidence, Huffman's numbers work if 2600W/m^2 warms the atmosphere. He therefore makes the invalid assumption that the albedo can be double counted, both warming the atmosphere and being absorbed.

This is where Huffman breaks the 2nd Law.

To achieve the warming he describes requires 2600W/m^2 to account for his warming and another 1820W/m2 to account for the measured albedo.That requires a total of 4420W/m2.

With only 2600W/m^2 available from the Sun, that requires another 1820W/m2 to magically appear from nowhere. 2nd Law violation.

Nov 17, 2016 at 10:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Two events I know you will dismiss as “weather not climate”, yet you cannot accept the same for a warm December – such is more “proof” of warming (panic!)

Take a look at the 30 year trend graphs. Insignificant?

Nov 17, 2016 at 10:15 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Mr Clarke, please read the final paragraph of my Nov 17, 2016 at 10:32 AM post.

Entropic man: so, what is your explanation for the atmosphere of Venus where it is 1 at. being exactly the temperature that the Earth’s would be, were it the same distance from the principle source of energy in the system? Coincidence, perhaps? How do you explain that the same ratio covers the entire range of altitudes covering the lower pressures on Earth (with one anomaly, and a probable explanation)? Yet more coincidence? Why, assuming that the ECS is actually 1°C, is the temperature not 11°C warmer? Because albedo has reduce it by exactly that amount? And you do not consider that another suspicious coincidence – especially as research on this planet show albedo has very little effect on our own temperatures?

As Martin A pointed out in that thread, 100% of all received energy is eventually radiated out to space, else the temperature will rise indefinitely. What part of the solar spectrum contains the most energy? If memory serves me right, it is the infra-red end, hence we have infra-red cameras to find hot-spots in many uses. What is the spectrum of the reflected radiance from Venus? Logic leads to it being the higher end, as it is known that the lower wavelengths tend to have greater penetration into various surfaces.

Nov 17, 2016 at 10:52 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Oh dear.

Nov 17, 2016 at 11:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Oh dear.

Nov 17, 2016 at 11:14 PM | Phil Clarke

You're not happy with Grant Foster's logic either then?

Nov 17, 2016 at 11:29 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Radical rodent

Because of its high albedo the climate system on Venus actually takes up less energy than Earth. Venus ends up warmer because the higher CO2 content of the atmosphere has a stronger insulating effect.

Like Earth, the incoming radiation is mostly in the visible spectrum and the planet radiates energy mostly in the infra-red.

Nov 18, 2016 at 12:02 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Entropic man: said with such confidence but not one shred of evidence. Are you truly suggesting that this equivalent-temperature-at-the-same-pressure thing between the two planets is actually a coincidence? Amazing… Of course, any research that has shown that albedo has little effect on surface temperatures is obviously wrong, too, though I doubt you will have evidence for that, either.

Oh dear, indeed.

Nov 18, 2016 at 12:29 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

EM, were the warmer temperatures on Earth last year that Phil Clarke linked to, due to weather or climate? As Scandanavia and the Alps are recording record snowfalls in November 2016, and it is possible we may catch a dollop before December, should it be reported as weather or climate?

I have not noticed it getting hotter in the UK. There has been no change in rainfall, winds or sunshine. We have had a reduction in the coldest weather, in my opinion, but a big freeze and snowfall before Christmas is not going to help the Warmist cause, if Grant Foster was reporting last year as evidence of Global Warming, not weather.

Nov 18, 2016 at 12:30 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Radical Rodent, is there a collective noun for a cluster of "oh dears" ?

Nov 18, 2016 at 1:37 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golfCharlie. "A blue rinse of" perhaps?

I think there is evidence of a warming over my lifetime. Since I was a boy in the 1940s there has been winter warming. I recall and have photographic evidence of frequent snowy Christmases in East London. Other photographs of me and my sister with excessive winter clothing also suggest colder conditions in the early 1950s.

I've even noticed another change over the past 25 years. When I first arrived in Norfolk, winters and autumns had thick fogs. I haven't experienced the same in over a decade.

Nov 18, 2016 at 7:27 AM | Unregistered CommenterACK

ACK
I too have noticed a warming, particularly in winter. However the cause is by no means certain and I'm with Radical in that I don't want to return to the winters of my childhood and youth, When icicles hang by the wall,. And Dick the shepherd blows his nail, aren't good times

Nov 18, 2016 at 7:59 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS