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Discussion > Brexit ..Bubbleworlds and Climate psychology

The interesting thing is that Brexiters knew well about the large contingent of Remainers
..but come Friday...... the Remainers were stunned to find there were masses of Brexiters

On Friday's radio all Remainers were angry , whilst Brexiteers seemed calm and rational .

Not all Remainers were like that, nor are all Climate skeptics non-lefties
But There are interesting psychology parallels between typical Global Warming True Beleivers and typical Remainers.
a similar level of anger, certainty beyond evidence , and DENIAL.
The good video on Guido about Social Media Bubbleworlds

Also a good article in the Telegraph This was the day the British people defied their jailers by TIM STANLEY
..It was a Major Triumph for Farage, UKIP and Brexiteers yet they largely resisted ringing the ChurchBells and almost zero celebration has been shown on the BBC ..as if Brexiteers know not to crow over the Remainers.

Jun 26, 2016 at 10:27 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

MY question to people is : Think back to Thursday morning ..what were your predictions for the vote percentages ?

Were you like the Remainers I just heard on the radio who said that they always expected to win, with one woman's guess for it to be 70% for Remain ?

Jun 26, 2016 at 10:32 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

It has been claimed ( and Jonathan Haidt's 'The Righteous Mind is my most coherent source) that people on the Left just can't see what those on the conservative side are talking about. Just cannot understand what we are concerned about or interpret our views as anything other than wrong/evil. Those on the right can see what the other lot are concerned with but have other considerations which weigh with us whereas the Left give undue priority to Caring and Fairness.

In the recent unpleasantness it is clear both sides were talking past each other, but this time I was completely unable to see what the other side was on about. All Project Fear and no positive reason to stay at all, caring and fairness or not.

Jun 26, 2016 at 10:41 PM | Unregistered Commenterrhoda

Oh, and I always thought that there were shy leavers uncounted by the polls and that the polls themselves were searchnig for algorithms to get a convenient result. They have been wrong so often recently one wonders if they are straight.

Jun 26, 2016 at 10:44 PM | Unregistered Commenterrhoda

I should put a link to the Guido article about Social Media Bubble worlds
..note it adds "Guido noticed that during the 2008 Ken v Boris campaign private car owners didn’t know anyone who was going to vote for Ken and those who solely relied on public transport were almost the reverse, they didn’t know anyone who was going to vote for Boris."

Jun 27, 2016 at 1:18 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

I wasn't too surprised by the result, given the recent surprise of the general election result after a referendum had been promised by Cameron. That is probably the price he paid for spiking UKIP's guns at the election when the alternative might have been another coalition.

Pollsters and genuinely-journalistic media probably should ask themselves some searching questions about how they choose to report much politics. Perhaps it is because they are just unwittingly acting to make certain topics off-limits for consideration in the public sphere, or at least introduce bias. Of course the politicians and their political friends in the media often have this as their primary intention, so they have the least excuse for being surprised.

The most honest admission for not predicting the result came from Labrokes. I think they were quoted as saying "We give odds to make a profit from bettors, not to make accurate predictions. It has been a good result for us."

Jun 27, 2016 at 1:56 AM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

MY question to people is : Think back to Thursday morning ..what were your predictions for the vote percentages ?

Were you like the Remainers I just heard on the radio who said that they always expected to win, with one woman's guess for it to be 70% for Remain ?
Jun 26, 2016 at 10:32 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen


Oh, and I always thought that there were shy leavers uncounted by the polls and that the polls themselves were searchnig for algorithms to get a convenient result. They have been wrong so often recently one wonders if they are straight.
Jun 26, 2016 at 10:44 PM | Unregistered Commenterrhoda

I did not follow things at all until the last moment. Until then, I assumed it would be ~70% remain.

But when I heard, a couple of days before that it would be around 52:48 "remain" I guessed that it would actually turn out to be about 52:48 "brexit".

On the basis that the polls have always shown a bias towards predicting left-leaning results - at least since the defeat of Harold Wilson by Edward Heath - 1979(?).

Jun 27, 2016 at 7:09 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

1970, I meant. I think.

Jun 27, 2016 at 8:02 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

I honestly expected a 5% swing to Remain, but was worried it might be higher. My most optimistic view was that the Leave side might garner enough votes to convince the government to start taking their concerns seriously. I feared that people, especially the elderly, would be frightened away from Leaving. The outcome was better than I could have dreamt of. There's a good article in The Times today by Libby Purvis although I don't agree with her overall view she captures the adolescent wailing very well. Depressing to see the determined predictions of disaster from the losing side (including the BBC, of course). We need confidence and the go ahead spirit.

Jun 27, 2016 at 8:03 AM | Unregistered Commentermike fowle

Operation Emotional Blackmail is the new phase the PR machine has moved onto.

"Think of the Children !" Radio 5 Live has repeatedly played the clip of the old woman who after talking to her son has suddenly changed her mind about Brexit and has signed the fake petition.

Jun 27, 2016 at 10:02 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Wow @MartinA
"I did not follow things at all until the last moment. Until then, I assumed it would be ~70% remain."
..that sounds like the bubbleworld effect.

My pre-referendum thinking was basically REMAIN would rig it using propaganda tricks and just win

Detail : I certainly didn't go for a number. : Predicting stuff is a mugs game, all you can do is consider future scenarios' But I was picking up a few things from the background.
- Most voices I could hear on the BBC and Lefty forums were blind faith for remain, yet on other forums like Biased-BBC.org there was vast support ... Then I could see that Remain was moving into DESPERATION moves culminating in the cynical use of Jo Coxes death to smear Brexiteers as violent rightwingers.... And I thought wow not only is Brexit support vast, it is probably the majority.. So on the election night I was prepared for either scenarios
...But then I was taken in by BBC spin 'Looks like Remain are set for a close win, according to market experts and Farage has conceded.' And thought well the Remain dirty PR tricks have worked.

..So It was a surprise on Friday morning to find Brexit had won...
..Wow the little man/woman has stood up to the bullies and politics has moved forward with the first step towards reform...Like 'truth will out ' and the same reform will happen with green energy policies etc.

Jun 27, 2016 at 10:28 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Oh an on Operation Emotional Blackmail and this petition plea for 2nd referendum
Can you imagine if the 2014 Scottish referendum had had similar percentages in favour of Independence, that King Salmond and Princess Sturgeon would be giving in ?

No way they'd be sticking there foot down and saying 'the rules are the rules'

Jun 27, 2016 at 10:54 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

I thought Leave had to have a significant majority on Remain to have a chance of winning. I thought the undecided would automatically vote to Remain or not bother. Sure Leave had lost I went to bed at 10.

I think there are people who regret voting Leave and others who didn't vote because they they thought Leave didn't stand a chance. I think there were very few who voted for the EU itself, I think they voted for no disruption. Not a ringing endorsement.

Jun 27, 2016 at 12:33 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Ultimately I thought it was going to be about 55:45 for Remain. So did 97% of people.

Trusting opinion polls is dangerous for politicians, and the public, especially when the politicians endorse 97% of them.

Jun 27, 2016 at 2:05 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

I think there are people who regret voting Leave…
So why on Earth did they vote that way? What sort of logic courses through a mind that thinks, “Well, I don’t really want to leave, but I will vote to Leave, as I don’t think Leave will win…”? (There again, there is the assumption that such a mind actually thinks; perhaps they just did what they were told to do.)

I ignored the rhetoric and posed myself one, simple question: do I want this country to be ruled by an elected government that can be ousted, or do I want it to be ruled by the unelected elite of a foreign-based power, many of whom are hostile towards us, and who we will never be able to hold accountable or to kick out?

Jun 27, 2016 at 2:24 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

While there was a lot of what I'd call advertising about the EU there was nowhere near enough time for genuine planning. There wasn't a fixed voice for Leave for a start and Labour had a leader in Remain who acted like he'd been blackmailed to perform and an electorate who thought very differently from its London centric MPs. Cameron put people in the position of jumping one way or the other. Had there been a proper consultation about leaving the EU, the reasons for and against would have come out. If, and it's a very big if, the politicians had properly listened they might have been able to rectify a lot of the problems people have with our current situation. Even the problem of creeping federalisation might have been solved.

Cameron went to the EU sure that he and his public would vote to remain, no matter what rubbish he brought back. The EU believed him. He hadn't a clue how much immigration with the knock on effects of poor services and federalisation affected the public. He didn't realise what effect of 40 odd years of losing ground to the EU has had. Apart from a few skanky politicians and greedy bankers, nobody really likes the EU and everyone else has slagged the EU off or blamed it on a regular basis. The EU mind, not the Europeans.

If the question had been do you want to be part of an EU super state the answer would be a resounding 'no'. We would then have had to work out where the boundaries lay. The problem with the 'ever closer union' veto is that it didn't address how the EU tightens its grip, one little change at a time. It has made bigger lurches but didn't need to and counted on pro EU leaders pushing them through. So we'd have been drawn further and further in with no opportunity to stop it. The veto would just never be used.

But none of that happened so a lot of people voted to leave without really knowing what it would look like and a lot of people voted to remain without asking themselves where they'd want their government and civil servants to draw the line or if it would be possible. Pulling away from a black hole would use a lot of energy but it doesn't mean you should give into the pull.

Jun 27, 2016 at 2:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Leaving the EU will be worse than Global Warming Alarmists thought possible.

Everybody else will appreciate the extra money.

Jun 27, 2016 at 5:34 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

The thinking and arguments of the Remainers seems to be well summed up by Pink Floyd's verse, "I have become comfortably numb."

Jun 27, 2016 at 5:41 PM | Unregistered Commenterhunter

I kept thinking of the rabbit burrow being fed by the farmer in Watership Down.

Jun 27, 2016 at 5:47 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Having talked to my children who all live in the East Midlands feared, for purely personal reasons*, an exit vote from England, I expected a Remain vote from Wales on nothing more than the money and support the EU gives (redistributes UK money) to Wales. After talking to my brother I expect a remain vote from Scotland possibly with a lower turnout than the rest of the UK. I expected Northern Ireland to vote remain but not split quite the way it was, probably naively having met extreme Unionism in the past.

+As an expat any changes with reciprocal agreements have an instant effect.

Jun 27, 2016 at 6:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

hunter
As opposed to A Song of Patriotic Prejudice
The English, the English, the English are best,
I wouldn't give tuppence for all of the rest

Flanders and Swann

Jun 27, 2016 at 6:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Here's an interesting possibility.

Gibralter, Scotland and Northern Ireland join forces and remain. England and Wales leave.

There is precedent. Greenland left while Denmark remained

Jun 27, 2016 at 8:03 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

I was talking to my brother in Scotland last night, he suggested the Englamd should cede from the UK and leave the EU, that would be closer to the Greenland model.

Jun 27, 2016 at 8:18 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

England leaves and the rest remain?That would be the outcome which best fits the vote.

Jun 27, 2016 at 9:35 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

yes, England leaves makes sense.

Jun 27, 2016 at 11:00 PM | Unregistered CommenterMartin A