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Discussion > Brexit ..Bubbleworlds and Climate psychology

Martin A

This seems to be firming up as a concept.

England leaves the UK and the EU.

Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Gibralter remain in the EU as the Reunited Kingdom.

We even have a possible leader. Nicola Sturgeon is the most impressive politician in the country at the moment.

Jun 27, 2016 at 11:13 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Basically England and Wales can cecede from London
would be an area 70% for Brexit

Jun 28, 2016 at 12:52 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

England and Wales minus London leaving the UK would suit the demographics quite well. Since the Independence referendum there are probably a majority in England outside London who don't like Scotland and Scots, who don't like London and Londoners, who don't trust Banks and Bankers and who don't want immigration. I have no idea how the Welsh feel about Scotland's place in the UK.

Jun 28, 2016 at 7:50 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Are we really being serious here? If so let's go the whole hog and revert to the ancient kingdoms of Mercia, Wessex, Northumbria and the like. Each could leave or remain according to the referendum demographics. But would you live in Dumnonia or even Damnonia*? An additional advantage: we would never again suffer the indignity of supporting an England football team.

* Actually part of Scotland.

Jun 28, 2016 at 8:23 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

Alan kendall
Personally I wasn't being totally serious but there's an element of logic to it.

With regard to the step backwards we might take, isn't England still the Seven Kingdoms (plus Cornwall) it always was? East Anglia, Essex, Kent, Mercia, Northumbria, Sussex and Wessex. In my travels round the UK those divisions seem natural as do the four Kingdoms of Scotland, Pictland, Dál Riata, Strathclyde, Bernicia and post Viking age the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland. There are noticeable difference between all these in accents, food, building styles and attitudes to life. I think DNA tests have shown little movement of people until the industrial revolution, the most diverse mix of DNA is in industrial conurbations the least in the rural communities. Perhaps politicians would be wise to acknowledge these differences.

Jun 28, 2016 at 1:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Unfortunately we English have an exaggerated sense of fair play.

It has rapidly become apparent that the Brexit case was grossly optimistic and leaving the EU is a negative sum game.

We will leave, despite this, because a majority voted for it.😕

Jun 28, 2016 at 8:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

It has rapidly become apparent that the Brexit case was grossly optimistic and leaving the EU is a negative sum game.
?

On what do you base that presumption? The collapse in the economy (that did not happen); our posting to the back of the queue for USA business (that did not happen); or the shunning of the UK by European businesses (that did not happen)?

The truth of it is that none of those in the “Brexit” camp actually expected to win, but were hoping that it would be so close as to give the EU-philes pause for thought (as if that would ever happen…!). The win has caught everyone by surprise, and they are now having to think as to how to actually implement the wishes of the majority – which, like it or not, is what democracy is about.

Jun 28, 2016 at 9:06 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

@RR and so the discussion comes back around to being on topic as EM shows he lives in the Guardian reader bubbleworld and not the real world
...Rationals judge these type of things in terms of 5 years not 5 DAYS.


..Like did we decide the success of the Euro in 5 days ?

Jun 28, 2016 at 9:13 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

All that bullshit about being able to cherrypick what we wanted from the EEA and the single market without the free movement provisions?


Angela Merkel shot that down definitively this afternoon.

She said in her speech

"no cherrypicking"

Jun 28, 2016 at 9:25 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

The response from Europe was most definitely that the UK can leave on the terms that the UK wants, despite what the EU-bullies might demand. If little old I can see that, I sincerely hope that those negotiating the exit can see it, too.

One key point is that the vote was to leave the EU, and all its pettifogging diktats, NOT to leave Europe. What is generating such alarm in the EU is that we have shown the Europeans that democracy CAN prevail, and we having awoken quite a few sleeping lions; the prospect of having to actually listen to the people is scaring quite a few EU would-be emperors.

Jun 28, 2016 at 9:48 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Three days is enough.

Ryanair has cancelled investment in Belfast. Easy Jet is planning to move out of the UK. The Tata Steel deal, Hinckley Point, the Heathrow expansion and HS2 are in doubt.

Nissan,Toyota and Honda are twitchy. The Sunderland voters who voted Leave to protect their jobs at Nissan from immigrants may end up with no jobs to protect.

It is already apparantly that the Leavers badly misjudged the attitude of EU politicians.

This is not going to be an amicable separation, it will be a messy divorce.

Be careful what you wish for. You have got Brexit, but it is not what you hoped for.

Jun 28, 2016 at 9:50 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Entropic man

It is already apparantly that the Leavers badly misjudged the attitude of EU politicians.

By what logic do you draw that conclusion? The attitude of 'EU politicians' ( the unelected EU 'elite' politicians) has never been in doubt. Remember it was the fundamental reason for the referendum in the first place. Their subsequent intransigence during Cameron's 'reform' negotiations resulted in the Brexit out vote.

So I don't know of any 'Leavers' who have 'badly misjudged the attitude of EU politicians'. They have all been perfectly aware of their attitude and voted appropriately.

The referendum is not about numbers it is about who is responsible for the numbers. If you cannot vote out those responsible you do not live in a democratic society. You might be willing, for short term solace, for an unelected body to decide your life for you, but the majority of UK citizens have just decide that they are not willing.

This is not going to be an amicable separation, it will be a messy divorce.

Gaining and retaining democracy has always been a hard fought fight. That is why once attained it must be treasured, history dictates it has always been so. It is your only one true birthright, treasure it, fight for it and you and yours can benefit, divest the decisions to others then you relinquish your responsibility.

You and you alone are responsible for everything you do and every thing that happens to you.

Whilst it is recognised your geographical location adds further historical unwanted complications, the basic principals of democracy need not be compromised.

Jun 28, 2016 at 10:50 PM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand

Why is Angela Merkel able to anticipate the results of negotiations she is not in charge of. Nobody, even the Germans, voted for her to be in charge of the EU. If she is de facto in charge, and I can't vote her out, well, that's why I voted leave.

She's not the boss of me.

Jun 28, 2016 at 10:56 PM | Unregistered Commenterrhoda

EM, or should I say Eeyore, you really are a glass completely empty person.

Jun 28, 2016 at 11:43 PM | Unregistered Commenterrhoda

Rhoda

Angela Merkel is the leader of the largest economy in the EU. The attitude of her government will have a great influence on whatever deal emerges. She is now royally pissed off with the UK and in no mood to compromise.

You are dependant on her goodwill to achieve the cherrypicked deal that the Leavers hoped for. There are now two chances of achieving that, fat and slim.

She is not the boss of you, but you have just handed her enormous power to determine your fate.

Jun 28, 2016 at 11:56 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

She had more power to determine my fate before. But now the power is mine, if the political establishment of my own country don't mess it up. We'd be better off with no deal with Germany than with a bad one. We can trade on WTO terms.

Jun 29, 2016 at 12:15 AM | Unregistered Commenterrhoda

Em, its not up to what Merkel says
The flexibility is already built in to the Norwegian model said the lawyer on BBC Law In Action yesterday
- He said the rule was to be in the single market, you have to accept free movement, but it actually gives the country the right to set the number of immigrants.
..and many other rulews like Fishing limits don't apply to Norway etc.

Jun 29, 2016 at 1:11 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

She is not the boss of you, but you have just handed her enormous power to determine your fate.

Jun 28, 2016 at 11:56 PM | Entropic man

EM, the EU ignored the UK for years, and UK leaders ignored the population of the UK.

Has anything happened to change the EU's mind? Two major UK political parties are looking for new leaders (even if one current leader thinks he has a cloak of impregnability)

There is 97% Confidence that respect for the EU will continue to diminish, until the EU acknowledges it's past mistakes.

Why have you used "you" twice, and "your"? Have you now decided to distance yourself from the problems you have helped to create?

Jun 29, 2016 at 2:02 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

stewgreen
Looking to the future do you think it likely that a Norwegian type agreement would satisfy the people who voted leave?
As I understand it Norway has full access to single market, obliged to make a financial contribution and accept majority of EU laws, free movement applies as it does in the EU. Even with a limit to immigration, as suggested, a majority of those who voted leave won't be happy.

Jun 29, 2016 at 8:17 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

I'm getting a little tired of the negativity surrounding the Brexit vote, and the negotiation that will now have to take place with the EU.

Some simple facts should cheer people up. Access to the single market would be nice, but is not essential. If we have to pay the Common External Tariff to gain access to it, then so be it. All countries outside the EU are currently in that situation. It doesn't stop our shops (and presumably shops all over Europe) being full of Chinese products).

If we have to pay a tariff to access the single market, then we should impose a reciprocal tariff on European goods. Given our annual trade deficit with the EU of £65bn p.a., that should help nicely to shore up the national finances.

But in any event, people who say it's the Norwegian model or nothing for gaining access to the single market aren't living in the real world. With all due respect to Norway, we are not Norway, we are the Eu's biggest trading partner bar none. Our position is different. Whoever negotiates with the EU on our behalf needs to understand the strength of our position.

The fact that Merkel has said "no cherry picking" is irrelevant. First, she doesn't run the EU, even if she thinks she does, and even if her tax payers are now going to have to fund it virtually unaided. Second, it's a negotiating position, an opening gambit. Just because she says it now, it doesn't mean it's the EU's final position. It almost certainly isn't, and if it is, then such intransigence and determination to shoot themselves in the foot demonstrates why we were right to leave.

If common sense prevails on both sides, we will give them free access to our market for their goods, and they will give us free access to theirs for our financial services (and goods, for what the latter's worth). if that doesn't happen, then the EU really is run by idiots, and we're well out of it.

Jun 29, 2016 at 8:39 AM | Unregistered CommenterMark Hodgson

Mark Hodgson
I'm really keen that the UK gets a good deal and rises to the 3rd richest nation on earth I don't think a Leicester City is possible. Perhaps when Hollande is no longer President de la Republique the chances may improve greatly, so delaying triggering article 50 until early next year might be a good thing. I don't think the WTO option has any merit whatsoever Tariffs have to be applied by both sides, it is against the rules to have different tariffs without a trade agreement.

What is needed is a UK opening gambit by somebody.

Jun 29, 2016 at 8:58 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

With all the gloom expected by the Remainers, today’s Stock and Exchange Rate Markets make for interesting reading, but will probably be overlooked by the BBC. The unelected, unaccountable and hence undemocratic leaders of the EU will not like this.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/marketdata/index.html

As far as future trade deals with the EU; up to April this year we export £12bn to EU countries (39%) and import £19bn (61%), do you think this trade is going to stop?

If tariffs are imposed who will lose most?

<https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx>

Jun 29, 2016 at 10:56 AM | Unregistered CommenterNeilC

NeilC
Long may the recovery continue, it'll have to. The current $/£ exchange rate is about 10Cents (6%) down on where it has been for most of 2016. Oil too is recovering and is around the same cost per barrel as it's been since May. So yes please keep recovering and make even more interesting and comforting reading, I'm with you on that.

The people of the UK and Europe will lose most if tariffs are imposed. It's something, especially WTO style tariff rules, to be avoided if at all possible which is why I hope that someone is planning a sensible strategy rather than winning an election to be leader of their party, or thinking of rude things to say about the European Parliament.

For example under a WTO arrangement would it be more profitable for Toyota to ship cars to the EU from Brazil or Canada rather than Burnaston?

Hope for the best - plan for the worst.

Jun 29, 2016 at 11:56 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Auntie catching on!

" Business Live: FTSE 100 rises 2%

London market trading 120 points higher with house builders and miners leading the risers, while sterling jumps against the dollar.......

...... Tokyo closes 1.6% higher and Hong Kong adds 1%"

Jun 29, 2016 at 1:48 PM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand

Sandy S

We may have been on different sides over the referendum, but I agree with your last comment, and also with this from the one before that:

"What is needed is a UK opening gambit by somebody."

I just wish I had more confidence that we had a politician capable of doing what's necessary.

Jun 29, 2016 at 2:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterMark Hodgson