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Discussion > First steps towards a sucessful Brexit

Glad to be so designated.

Jul 6, 2016 at 9:10 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

Alan Kendall

Leave it.

Golf Charlie thinks this is how you debate. It is why I rarely engage with him nowadays.

Jul 6, 2016 at 9:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

EM, I look forward to minutes of the meeting when it was concluded that Climate Science was settled, so that I can understand how Climate Science should be debated.

Only 97% of Climate Scientists deny the existence of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, which proves that not all Climate Scientists are wrong.

Jul 7, 2016 at 12:23 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

From Business Green

"Fears mount over Brexit threat to green infrastructure investment. James Murray 04 July 2016
As George Osborne raises prospects of corporation tax cuts, reports suggest pipeline of clean energy projects in line for European Investment Bank loans could be impacted by UK withdrawal from EU"

If this prevents money being wasted on Unreliable power generation, then this must be good news for consumers who would prefer reliable power. This must be good news for those whose jobs rely on producing reliable power. This must be good news for those in Northern Ireland hoping for a reliable light at the end of the tunnel of gloom.

This may not fix even 1% of Northern Ireland's problems, but is the sort of positive news that is getting no publicity in the current 'climate of doom' press releases.

Jul 7, 2016 at 2:04 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

MartinA.
One last try because I really don't want to fall out with you over this. It's not worth it.

It may have passed your notice that, by employing your definition of a tone troll - " Complaing about the tone of comments rather than addressing specific points" , everyone here, including your good self, who mocked or complained about ER's pessimistic tone and did not address the specific points he raised is guilty of tone trolling.

Yes EM may be guilty of crying "wolf" too often, but sometimes there is a wolf! I took the trouble to read some Irish newspaper reports and opinion pieces, and found that many over there are also crying wolf about Brexit. That itself has importance because it will inform and influence the political process. Dismissing it, simply on the basis that it comes from EM is IMO an error, one that I have repeatedly tried to convince BH of, only to be branded a troll by you. Rough justice.

Consider an analogy: if you only had one reporter on the Western Front, and he was a well known pessimist, would you dismiss his accurate reports about the Somme? I'm not saying EM is an accurate reporter, but in this instance you don't know how accurate he is without checking other sources. I, at least, have done this.

Jul 7, 2016 at 5:41 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

Alan Kendall, reference to your response to Martin A and World War 1

Don't you think that if Dodgy Dossiers had been used to go into the trenches, and war reporters had continued to report good progress and demand, more resources men and money should be sacrificed to back up the original dodgy dossier, people might get a bit annoyed?

Fabricating a referendum saying that all military leaders (because only they could know) believed the war was being fought for the right reasons, as more lives were being sacrificed, would be an indication of deranged desperation.

Obviously military leaders, arms dealers and war reporters would have most to lose if pacifists had called into question the need for a war in the first place.

If the war reporters then said that peace will export trench foot around the world, they would be ridiculed. The fact that flu killed more in 1919, could be blamed on the stupidity of the war, or on the stupidity of peace, but it can not be blamed on the people who opposed the war in the first place.

If EM wants to restore his credibility, perhaps he should start by renouncing what he knows to be false, prior to launching into fresh assaults that for me, are a direct consequence of the arrogance and greed of climate science. The Brexit vote was won on 'Immigration'. For me, the deciding factor was the destruction of the UK and European economies by climate scientists, based on dodgy dossiers, and dodgy evidence.

If EM does not want to debate dodgy climate science with me, that is fine. No supporter of climate science has ever sought proper debate with anyone else. Mann is so keen not to testify under oath in court . Why?

The RICO 20, so enthusiastic to see others in the Dock, are now looking at being placed in the Dock themselves. See WUWT for more info.

Jul 7, 2016 at 10:08 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

EM.
1. Are you going to comment on those of Steve Richards who did take the trouble to critically consider the fears you claim the Irish feel?
2. Are you going to demonstrate that what you wrote are not just your personal fears but those of a wider community?

Or are you going to leave me high and dry having defended you from all comers here (and been dubbed a troll for my troublles) when you won't defend yourself?

Jul 7, 2016 at 11:48 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

Alan Kendall, EM has always been capable of expressing his personal fears about the terrible consequences of Climate Science.

I have just been hearing on the Radio that UK importers are struggling with the drop in the Pound. Some exporters are enjoying it.

On balance, I would guess that Northern Ireland will suffer from Brexit, but recovery from Climate Science interference in the economy should bring some rewards too. Nobody has been funded to write good news about Brexit, yet.

Jul 7, 2016 at 1:42 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golfCharlie. Why are you, and most others here, convinced that Brexit will cause a revaluation of climate change and the move towards decarbonizing the energy industry? One would have thought that the consequences of separating from EU would cause freedom from EU directives promoting climate change. However, the true situation has been that it has been the UK that has pressured the EU to move more quickly and decisively on these matters. The Climate Change Act was UK inspired and later used by the EU as a blueprint. I know some prominent brexiteers are reputed to be less concerned about the move to renewables, but they are still in a very small minority. Why are you so confident there will be a change?

Jul 7, 2016 at 2:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

Entropic man
I see in the News today that the French economy has overtaken the UK. I'm not entirely sure if this is just a facet of Sterling's decline against the dollar. I'm also guessing that the stock market is doing reasonably well (not actually falling) because for foreign investors there are bargains to be had. It's an ill wind.

Jul 7, 2016 at 3:31 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Sandy S. The other day in a political sketch in the Guardian was a story which I didn't really believe (given its location it could have been a spoof). Apparently during George Osbourn's pep talk to the house about the UK economy, he mentioned that Britain was still the fifth largest economy in the world, at which point someone slipped him a note that told him that we had slipped to 6th.

Your story of the rise of the Trench economy ranking suggests that the Guardian story might actually have been true. Almost certainly the ranking change is due to the weakness of the pound.

Jul 7, 2016 at 3:47 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

Alan Kendall

I've in the second of two very busy days.

I'll read Steve's comment and reply later this evening.

Jul 7, 2016 at 5:22 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Alan Kendall, the Climate Change Act is the most disastrous and ill-conceived bit of legislation on the Statute Books. It has destroyed UK industry, and exported it. It has destroyed the UK's ability to keep the lights on, and there is no viable alternative. It is costing everyone in the country money, and tax and bill payers more than the rest. What is there to like, justify or support the Climate Change Act? Nothing

If you want to talk about NOx & SOx etc, actual environmental pollutants, then fine. If people want to retain legislation about thar, then fine.

Decarbonising the economy is complete twaddle. To avoid all the dire predictions of doom, forecast by the doom mongers, the advice of the doom mongers should be ignored.

It is the main reason for me supporting Brexit, and is the best kick-start for the economy to get it going again. The rest of EUrope will follow shortly.

Jul 7, 2016 at 6:47 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golfCharlie.
You haven't really answered my question. If your main concern in life is opposing climate science and its implications for energy I can perhaps understand your voting Brexit because that removes the UK from future control over these matters by the EU.
However the UK parliament shows little sign that it will change tack on either its climate change commitments or its determination to remove as much fossil fuel from its future energy mix. So my question is - why do you, and many others here, seem to believe that Brexit will change our government's position on these matters? Why are you so optimistic?

Jul 7, 2016 at 7:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

However the UK parliament shows little sign that it will change tack on either its climate change commitments or its determination to remove as much fossil fuel from its future energy mix. So my question is - why do you, and many others here, seem to believe that Brexit will change our government's position on these matters? Why are you so optimistic?

Jul 7, 2016 at 7:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

The UK government position will change. Because they have to change. Not necessarily because Brexiteers will make them change, but because reality will make them change.

Reality will be able to reassert itself more quickly in a smaller political entity.

Optimism doesn't even enter into the discussion. I did optimism with the EEC some years ago. I was mistaken. Time for something else.

Jul 7, 2016 at 9:04 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Michael Hart. Wish I had your optimism. I suppose my pessimism is based on the fact that reality is with us now. We are shutting down coal power stations (and good riddance to the older, highly inefficient and polluting versions), haven't replaced them with stations equiped with "clean coal" technologies because of CO2 reduction commitments. We haven't enough gas power stations, are losing much of our nuclear electricity supply and dithered on new stations. All is dependent on renewables that anyone with half a brain knows cannot meet the shortfall. My UEA colleague, who taught an energy module, recognized the shortfall more than a decade ago, and we watched successive governments do nothing or exactly the wrong thing.

So my question is when do you think your "reality" will kick in?

I have noticed this upsurge in optimism here since the Brexit vote, and still cannot explain it. The problem with your explanation (and thank you for it) is that the "smaller political entity" currently is more committed to energy stupidity than the larger EU entity ever has been.

Jul 7, 2016 at 9:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

AK, I regard us as agreed upon these recent points.
In answer to your last question, I have to say "I don't know".

But I do recall a former employer (who qualifies as a 'mentor' I should have listened to more, even if I didn't realise it at the time) telling me that "Mike, the worst never happens when you are prepared for it."

Hmm... Which means I think I've just found a purpose for Entropic Man.

Jul 7, 2016 at 10:50 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

860,000 Irish citizens live in the UK. They currently have a de facto right of residence under the Common Travel Agreement.

There are 3.3million EU nationals living in the UK. 25%of them are Irish citizens.I find it difficult to imagine the hard Brexiteers sending 75% of the EU migrants home and letting the other 25% stay. To expel the Irish would require ending the Common Travel Area.

Note that sending 830,000 Irish citizens home would increase the population of Eire from 4.5 million to 5.3 million. There are currently 169,000 unemployed, 7.8%. This would become almost 1 million, 42%.

Just the potential population movement would be a disaster for Eire, never mind the problems with the border.

If I am overestimating the problem, what are the Brexiteers going to say to all those northern working class voters who were promised that all their foreign competition would disappear?


At present, anyone with the money can cross from France on a ferry to Ireland or fly into Dublin. EU citizens need only show identification. Non-EU citizens need only a visitor or tourist visa. They can then travel freely to Belfast and into the UK. It is anyone's guess how many have already done so. Once again, the hard Brexiteers will be under political pressure to close the land border. The first scandal would force it.

And you say that Eire has nothing to worry about!

Free trade.

You are naively optimistic about trade. The EU has other priorities at this point. For one, they cannot afford to let the UK leave and then be seen to prosper through trade deals with the EU.

They have to demonstrate that the remaining members are better in than out. That is worth a considerable hit to their trade.with the UK.


Looked at the £ lately. Latest value against the dollar is $1.31, down from $1.45 before the vote. It is also down 10% against most other currencies, including the euro. The drift continues downward.

This may help exports in due course, but those same voters are also paying 10% more for any imported goods. Was this the prosperity they were promised by the Brexiteers?

It is clear that, to date, brexit has been a negative sum game.

Jul 7, 2016 at 10:55 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Alan Kendall

Thank you for the defence, but it is not necessary. Nothing these people can produce is worth rolling over in bed for.

Jul 7, 2016 at 10:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Ak - I think that michael hart is spot on when he says

The UK government position will change. Because they have to change. Not necessarily because Brexiteers will make them change, but because reality will make them change.

Reality will be able to reassert itself more quickly in a smaller political entity.

On another thread, I posted my observation that the rise of the political classes and the administrative classes, both out of touch with the population at large, and coexisting in a sort of symbiosis, explains the phenomenon of Donald Trump and of Brexit. (here)

I think that mh is quite right in that a small political enitity has less inertia slowing change than a large one. And ditching a commitment to energy stupidity could well be accelerated in cases where the commitment was very deep (because the stupidity becomes obvious to all at an earlier stage).

I think that the UK commitment to the Climate Change Delusion may eventually come about by a similar process to Brexit - ie the general population voting it off the stage, despite the media and the political classes screaming that doing so will be the end of everything.

So there are two reasons why Brexit may, in a tenuous way, accelerate the eventual ditching of the climate change act.

Jul 7, 2016 at 10:59 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

The Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte had this to say.

The self-confessed anglophile prime minister took a somewhat softer stance than other European leaders over Brexit, arguing that Britain should not be rushed, given the country had

"collapsed - politically, economically, monetarily and constitutionally".

This is how one of our friends sees us!

Jul 7, 2016 at 11:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

EM, on what bssis did you convince yourself that brexit supporters had promised anybody anything? How could they, they are not in charge. They are not the government. I don't believe I ever heard a leave supporter in the campaign say they would send back all immigrants, perhaps you did? That sort of thing was an suggestion of the remainers Nobody at all, even remain, said that would apply to Irish people. You are making much of something that is not really supportable except as a really long stretch. Ireland will be OK. The greatest harm so far was the unsupportable boom caused by the euro having low interest rates set elsewhere and the Irish first of all thinking the boom would go on forever and secondly not having any way to fix it and let it down gently. Not the UK's fault. But a real thing that happened not an over-projection like your panoply of worries. Glass completely empty again.

Jul 7, 2016 at 11:34 PM | Unregistered Commenterrhoda

There are 3.3million EU nationals living in the UK. 25%of them are Irish citizens.I find it difficult to imagine the hard Brexiteers sending 75% of the EU migrants home and letting the other 25% stay. To expel the Irish would require ending the Common Travel Area.

Note that sending 830,000 Irish citizens home would increase the population of Eire from 4.5 million to 5.3 million. There are currently 169,000 unemployed, 7.8%. This would become almost 1 million, 42%.

Just the potential population movement would be a disaster for Eire, never mind the problems with the border.

EM. Don't worry about it. Irish people are not going to be expelled from the UK, I promise you.

Just as British people are not going to be expelled from France.

If I am overestimating the problem, what are the Brexiteers going to say to all those northern working class voters who were promised that all their foreign competition would disappear?

I don't remember hearing such a promise. Who made it who had the necessary authority to make it?

Those "northern working class voters" were, so far as I can see, voting as they did because they want to see an end to uncontrolled immigration. Not because they had been "promised" that all people not of UK origin would be deported.



Free trade.

You are naively optimistic about trade. The EU has other priorities at this point. For one, they cannot afford to let the UK leave and then be seen to prosper through trade deals with the EU.

They have to demonstrate that the remaining members are better in than out. That is worth a considerable hit to their trade.with the UK.

So a protection racket, after all?

Jul 7, 2016 at 11:41 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Looked at the £ lately. Latest value against the dollar is $1.31, down from $1.45 before the vote. It is also down 10% against most other currencies, including the euro. The drift continues downward."

Is it that EM is confusing the noise and the signal?

Jul 7, 2016 at 11:58 PM | Unregistered Commenterdiogenes
Jul 7, 2016 at 11:58 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man