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A few sites I've stumbled across recently....

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Thursday
Nov262009

Fiddling in the Antipodes

New Zealand Climate Science Coalition finds evidence that temperature records in that country have been adjusted to show warming. It never rains, but it pours eh?

Wednesday
Nov252009

Willis on CRU and FoI

Willis Eschenbach, who started the Freedom of Information requests to CRU back in 2005 has a summary of his experiences up at WUWT.  Truly amazing.

Wednesday
Nov252009

Expanding head

Several people have written nice things about me recently. One article called me "heroic", which was very kind but perhaps excessive praise for the writing of a blog post.

James Delingpole is kind enough to refer to me as "the great Bishop Hill" which again is very flattering, but unfortunately is about a guest post written by Andrew K. I'd tell James myself, but I've never managed to get a confirmation email out of the Telegraph website so I can't post there. No doubt word will filter through.

 

Wednesday
Nov252009

Who's been spinning in my newspaper?

This is a guest post by Andrew K.

 

There is a piece on the Guardian's Comment is Free today by one George Marshall.

The heading and strapline say it all really:

Leaked email climate smear was a PR disaster for UEA

There was no evidence of conspiracy among climate scientists in the leaked emails – so why was the University of East Anglia's response so pathetic?

According to the profile on CiF, "George Marshall is the founder and director of projects at the Climate Outreach and Information Network. He posts regularly to the blog climatedenial.org"

This set me digging.I discovered that COIN was a registered charity, so my next port of call was the Charity Commission, to have a look at their accounts.

None have yet been filed, as the organisation is newly registered: Mem and Arts were incorporated on 21st December 2007 and they were registered with the Charity Commission on 26th March 2008 (though according to their own website they were founded in 2004).

Its charitable objects are listed on the Charity Commission website as "to promote any charitable purposes at the discretion of the trustees concerning climate change and its impact".

Their objects look rather more political on their "about us" page. The contact was listed as a Mr Tim Baster of Oxford.  Additionally there are two trustees.

Googling Mr Baster's name came up trumps.  The buggers are getting close on £700,000 from DEFRA over two years.

According to DEFRA's press release this is to "profoundly change the attitude of rank and file union members; generating visible collective reduction action, establishing a social norm for personal action, and creating a persuasive synergy and cross over between personal action, work-placed programmes such as 'Greening the workplace', and the emissions reduction targets of employers."

The other awards on the press release merit a look too.

 

 

 

 

Wednesday
Nov252009

CRU public inquiry petition

There's a petition up to encourage the government to set up a public inquiry into the CRU. Sign here.

Wednesday
Nov252009

Koutsouyannis on Climategate

A must-read review of Climategate by Demetris Koutsouyannis. Demetris is professor of hydrology at the University of Athens. He looks as if he has been on the receiving end of some of the Hockey Team's attempts to keep non-orthodox views out of the literature.

Tuesday
Nov242009

Code thread updated

I've been updating the code thread. Some readers, particularly Mark (thanks Mark), have been doing a fantastic job of uncovering juicy titbits. There's some, ahem, extraordinary comments on that code. Take a look.

 

Tuesday
Nov242009

Channel Four's application of Muphry's Law

Channel Four just did a classic foot in the mouth moment. Sniggering at `ignorant American' Glenn Beck for garbling the location of the CRU ("East Angerleer"), they became yet another in the long list of failures to falsify Muphry's law: just moments after their moment of mirth at Mr Beck's expense, they managed to interview someone called "Benny Peisner" from Liverpool John Moores University. 

 

Tuesday
Nov242009

Thought for the day

Much rejoicing over Monbiot's apology for having meekly accepted everything the scientists had been telling him for the last twenty years. He goes as far as saying that Phil Jones should retire.

But given that Monbiot has, by his own admission, failed in his primary duty as a journalist, can his own position be very secure?

 

Tuesday
Nov242009

Quote of the day

"I'm just a humble scientist trying to do research"

Phil Jones, interviewed by the BBC's Freedom of Information correspondent, Martin Rosenbaum. A second career as a stand-up comedian beckons, IMHO.

 

Monday
Nov232009

The code

This is a new thread for updates on the analyses of the data and code freed from CRU.

Everybody, I'm sinking under weight of things to do here. I need you to post one or two line analyses of what you are finding in which bits of code. I'll transfer these to the main post as they come in. It needs to be in layman's language and to have a link to your work.

CRU code

  • Francis at L'Ombre De L'Olivier says the coding language is inappropriate. Also inappropriate use of hard coding, incoherent file naming conventions, subroutines that fail without telling the user, etc etc.
  • AJStrata discovered a file with two runs of CRU land temp data which show no global warming per the data laid out by country, and another CRU file showing their sampling error to be +/- 1°C or worse for most of the globe. Both CRU files show there has been no significant warming post 1960 era
  • A commenter notes the following comment in some of the code:"***** APPLIES A VERY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION FOR DECLINE*********"
  • Good layman's summary of some of the coding issues with a file called "Harry". This appears to be the records of some poor soul trying to make sense of how the code for producing the CRU temperature records works. (rude words though, if you're a sensitive type)
  • Some of annotations of the Harry code are priceless - "OH **** THIS. It's Sunday evening, I've worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done I'm hitting yet another problem that's based on the hopeless state of our databases. There is no uniform data integrity, it's just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they're found."
  • CRU's data collation methods also seem, ahem, amusing: "It's the same story for many other Russian stations, unfortunately - meaning that (probably) there was a full Russian update that did no data integrity checking at all. I just hope it's restricted to Russia!!"
  • Borepatch discovers that CRU has lost its metadata. That's the bit that tells you where to put your temperature record on the map and so on.
  • Mark in the comments notices a file called resid-fudge.dat, which he says contains, believe it or not, fudged residuals figures!
  • Mark in the comments notes a program comment: "Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!! followed by the words `fudge factor' " See briffa_sep98_d.pro.
  • From the programming file combined_wavelet.pro, another comment, presumably referring to the famous Briffa truncation: "Remove missing data from start & end (end in 1960 due to decline)".
  • From the file pl_decline.pro": "Now apply a completely artificial adjustment for the decline only where coefficient is positive!)"
  • From the file data4alps.pro: "IMPORTANT NOTE: The data after 1960 should not be used. The tree-ring density' records tend to show a decline after 1960 relative to the summer temperature in many high-latitude locations. In this data set this "decline" has been artificially removed in an ad-hoc way, and this means that data after 1960 no longer represent tree-ring density variations, but have been modified to look more like the observed temperatures."
  • From the Harry readme:"What the hell is supposed to happen here? Oh yeah - there is no )'supposed', I can make it up. So I have :-)...So with a somewhat cynical shrug, I added the nuclear option - to match every WMO possible, and turn the rest into new stations (er, CLIMAT excepted). In other words, what CRU usually do. It will allow bad databases to pass unnoticed, and good databases to become bad, but I really don't think people care enough to fix 'em, and it's the main reason the project is nearly a year late. " (see Harry readme para 35.
  • James in the comments says that in the file pl_decline.pro the code seems to be reducing temperatures in the 1930s and then adding a parabola to the 1990s. I don't think you need me to tell you what this means.

  •  

Monday
Nov232009

Consensus-breaking

Is this the moment when reputable climatologists start to distance themselves from the Hockey Team? Judy Curry's piece at Climate Audit was the start of it, but now Hans von Storch has called for Mann and Jones to be barred from taking part in future IPCC reviews.

Who else is brave enough? Now's the moment ladies and gentlemen.

 

Monday
Nov232009

Harrabin on the CRU hack

Yes, a miracle has happened. Roger Harrabin did a piece on the CRU hack that was not a complete whitewash. It did manage to avoid most of the issues though.

UK listeners can hear it here, starting at 19 mins, 15sec.

It includes calls for a public inquiry from both sides of the debate.

 

Monday
Nov232009

Still deleting dissent at the Guardian

It there nobody honest working at the Guardian? Nobody at all?

They have a post up there at the moment saying that there was no evidence of a conspiracy in the CRU emails, this based on the word of several of the perpetrators. I posted a response as follows:

Ah, so if Real Climate says there was no conspiracy, there was no conspiracy. The fact is, this is the same bunch of people implicated in the emails. Why should we accept their word?

There is clear evidence of conspiracy to remove from post journal editors who allowed publication of papers that questioned the "consensus". See http://www.anelegantchaos.org/cru/emails.php?eid=484&filename=1106322460.txt

I'm sorry, but this article is blatant disinformation. Truly shameful.

And now it's gone. Dissent is Deleted.

 

Monday
Nov232009

Still finding CRU issues

I'm still adding new email summaries to the bottom of my earlier post. If you haven't done so, you might like to check it out again.