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Drought links

In the aftermath of my GWPF paper on drought the other day, ECIU has published a piece on the same subject. Entitled "Syria and climate change - did the media get it right?" it looks at the execrable Kelley et al paper that I have been so critical of over the last year or so. The author, Alex Randall, describes the paper as "measured and robust", which is a surprising thing to say about research that blamed a long-term, but slight decline in rainfall in Iran for social unrest in Syria, but as someone once said "Hey, it's climate science". 

His case is that the media have been misleading the public, hyping Kelley's paper and creating illusory links to the unrest. No doubt he is thinking of people like the ECIU.

In a companion piece, Randall claims that

 the media reporting and the Kelley paper were also broadly consistent with research exploring the impacts of drought on migration and displacement across the world. Specifically, there is strong evidence linking climate change impacts such as drought with patterns of rural to urban migration.

But if you read his links you find only support for the hypothesis that drought causes migration. With no evidence that climate change causes droughts to become more intense or more prevalent, our green friends are left to insert the word "climate change" whereever they can, and to hope that nobody notices what they are up to.

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Reader Comments (80)

Alan Kendall, if only climate science could divine past weather events, with the same level of accuracy as a rain water storage bucket.

Treemometers have a very poor reputation, and in years to come, science historians may view their adoption as one of the greatest and most expensive mistakes of recorded history, that can not be adjusted out of computer generated, rerecorded climate science.

May 12, 2016 at 7:46 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

If wars are caused by the climate (droughts in particular) then we can use our history of wars as a proxy for droughts.
who needs tree rings ?
for example who can forget the major water shortages of 1066 , or the dry reservoirs that caused the war of Jenkins ear ?

In fact I remember my old dad telling me about the Kamikazes hitting the aircraft carrier he was serving on. Kamikaze = 'divine wind' . The typhoon that destroyed the Mongol invasion fleet in 1281.

it's all to do with the climate. always has, always will be.

The ancients had the phrase 'Casus Beli' which translates as 'climate justification for this war'

May 12, 2016 at 12:03 PM | Unregistered CommenterEternalOptimist

Me thinks Whitehall has created a giant rube Goldberg machine.
Nothing much has changed over the centuries.

Reading Fred Andersons "The Crucible of War"
Chapter 60, The sugar act.

"Like an engineer constructing a intricate machine, Grenville designed the Americans duties act to preform many simultaneous complementary functions, all of which, he believed, would help create a workable empire"

May 12, 2016 at 1:08 PM | Unregistered CommenterThe Dork of Cork

EternalOptimist, you are also forgetting the terrible Southern England drought in summer 1944. Even visiting Americans Canadians and others decided they had had enough, and stowed away to Normandy in France.

May 12, 2016 at 1:21 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Eternal Optimist

An even scarier scenario, if wars indeed constitute a proxy for past droughts (or visa versa), is that the IPCC (with its recognized ability to accurately model and predict future climate) will be able to predict and model future conflicts.

The UN will be able to pre-emptively intervene on the basis of climate science. Just think, the likes of Jones, Mann and Schmidt able to influence peace negotiations.


May 12, 2016 at 1:23 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

golf Charlie. I was taught the Americans were fed up with our eternal rain, and wanted to experience the much better continental climate. Drought Day (D Day) was much delayed by rain storms, much to the dissatisfaction of deGaulle, who always wore a sun visor.

May 12, 2016 at 1:34 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

Obviously the war theory for predicting droughts has it's very own set of models.

It's no coincidence that the best strategy for winning at Risk is to get hold of Australia early on.

May 12, 2016 at 2:03 PM | Unregistered CommenterEternalOptimist

So if dendrochtonology is discredited, Mann is going to have to rebuild his Hockey Stick based on counting the bodies in unmarked graves.

Notable heatwaves and droughts to look out for include the War of the Roses, Black Death, Great Plague and English Civil War.

Rewriting Wikipedia to remove Potato Blight as the cause of the Great Famine in Ireland in the mid 1800s, may upset a few people, but experts in rewriting Wikipedia have never worried about that sort of thing.

May 12, 2016 at 2:36 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golf Charlie, Eternal Optimist,

Ever hear of the Droughts of the Roses?

May 12, 2016 at 2:43 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

Golf casting a spud fly hoping the Dork trout will rise....
Generally speaking the English have a hopeless sense of their own history as they are goldfish looking out of their little empire sphere construct.

Yee guys must read Andersons little book on the 7 years war and its consequences
The energy / sugar trade was distorted into wild contortions and shapes as a result of British based usury policies.
Property speculators such as Washington or Trump who previously had skin in the game of empire became some sort of practical nationalists in reaction to a failed globalisation effort.

Please forgive me but I have been inside the dark heart of Kerry for a few weeks.
With only the now poor quality propaganda of radio 4 land for company.
To read the Crucible in concert with Londons wireless attack on Trump was mildly amusing.

May 12, 2016 at 3:33 PM | Unregistered CommenterThe Dork of Cork

So Dork a few shootings in Belfast a few nights ago and Cameron and the Cobra Committee talking about the Real I R A kicking off again.

So Climate Change induced drought causes conflict and there is plenty of Conflict in the Emerald Isle .

So Dork my question is why is it always raining in Ireland.

May 12, 2016 at 3:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterJamspid

His descriptions of the bankruptcy process of East coast puritan capitalists as the currency act kicked is vivid in the mind given it almost exactly mimics the post Masstricht period of European recent history.

It's a cracker of a book.

Nothing much as changed people.
The propaganda (see climate change corporatists) has merely become more absurd.

The merry go round Atlantic trade distortions planned as the sugar tax did it's worst is the carbon tax of today.
Preventing the Yanks drinking Maderia wine etc etc.

It's a mad laugh of a book.

May 12, 2016 at 3:55 PM | Unregistered CommenterThe Dork of Cork

Someone else will have to translate Dorkish, I've got my hands full with Alyaisms.

Or shall we not bother?

Personally I'm not really interested until he starts up again about funny money economics, then its so riveting.

How long before Cork becomes the new Davos?

May 12, 2016 at 4:01 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

Belfast is a alien city to Corkonians.
You might as well be talking about Tokyo.
As far as I am aware there is no air connection
(Come to think of it now, Cork is a alien city today, see recently introduced new plantations and consequent puritanism as a result of capitalistic rationing )

Ireland is wet because we sit on the edge of the North Atlantic jetstream.
The function of the Kerry mountains is to reduce the volume of English rainfall etc etc.

May 12, 2016 at 4:04 PM | Unregistered CommenterThe Dork of Cork

Sadly you may be correct
My economic views are best expressed by other people.
If you want to understand social credit read or listen in audio book form to the 1939 classic Sci Fi
"For us the living "
In its utube audio form go to 4H 57 m to 6h 10 m.

If you cannot get it you do not really understand thermodynamics and are perhaps a little retarded.


May 12, 2016 at 4:18 PM | Unregistered CommenterThe Dork of Cork

May 12, 2016 at 4:20 PM | Unregistered CommenterThe Dork of Cork

The Dork is correct, Crucible of War is a great read. Highly recommended.

May 12, 2016 at 4:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterBloke in Central Illinois


Sorry this retard was never exposed to the full rigour of classical economic thermodynamics, or thermodynamic economics. I suppose the University of Cork must be a world leader in these fields?

Synthetic logic and climate catechism are probably also homespun specialities and are very contagious.

May 12, 2016 at 4:43 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

Bloke &c. Thank you for the Rosetta Stone. I had no idea that the Dork was referring to a book. Inclusion of Trump and the heart of Kerry threw me.

Will probably see if my library has the book. Thanks for the recommendation.

May 12, 2016 at 5:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

If migration is the key indicator for climate change, when will penguins fly North and Polar Bears fly South? I await the next cutting edge report via the ECIU with interest, assuming they have not exceeded their Intelligence quota already.

May 12, 2016 at 6:06 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Ever hear of the Okies, who left Oklahoma in the depression and migrated to California?

May 13, 2016 at 1:29 AM | Unregistered CommenterEli Rabett

"if thrown hard enough, will the Hockey Stick come back?"

Clearly not.
Comes back = boomerang.
Doesn't come back = stick.
In order to come back, it would need to be a hockey boomerang, which it is not - it's a hockey stick. Therefore, it won't come back.

May 13, 2016 at 3:23 AM | Unregistered CommenterKneel

But the hockey stick does come back repeatedly. It returns night after night to haunt golf Charlie's dreams. Green blobs also bounce around in there. Flying penguins are more recent additions to his oeuvre, but are appearing with increasing frequency.

On a bad night he could have the full set nightmare: a hockey-stick brandishing team of players in tuxedos (with a trendy Mannager) being encouraged by green blob fanatics.

Do not mention wet dreams - induced by his, only partially, repressed fears of rising sea levels.

May 13, 2016 at 6:28 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

Alan Kendall, you now appreciate what a nightmare Climate Science has become.

Nothing Climate Scientists have warned the world to be fearful of, has happened.

Eli Rabett thinks the UK has never heard of John Steinbecks's book 'Of Mice and Men' a story set around the 1930s Dustbowl in the USA. Michael Mann leads climate scientists around the world in pretending the 1930s US Dustbowl did not happen, because it does not fit their theories and personal financial planning.. Dustbowl Denial is part of Climate Science.

May 13, 2016 at 7:40 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

'Ever hear of the Okies, who left Oklahoma in the depression and migrated to California?'

Yes, many of them drove there in cars. The CO2 is probably still hanging around, ready to roast the lot of us

May 13, 2016 at 8:09 AM | Unregistered Commenteresmiff

golfCharlie. Steinbeck was a denier!

May 13, 2016 at 8:25 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

"Ever hear of the Okies, who left Oklahoma in the depression and migrated to California?

May 13, 2016 at 1:29 AM | Eli Rabett"

Bit more clarification required here. What is Eli's point?

Global Warming hadn't started in the 1930s. There was a major financial depression, particularly harsh in parts of the USA. There was a drought, with crop failures over consecutive years, leading many to migrate to places where they could survive, with food, shelter, water, work and money. Nobody blamed CO2.

The uncivil war and conflict in Syria IS blamed on CO2, despite NO evidence at all.

That's Looney Tunes Climate Science

May 13, 2016 at 8:33 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golf Charlie.

Utter confusion reigns in the Kendall household. All the talk of John Steinbeck caused me to confuse Eli Rabett with Steinbeck"s friend and mentor Ed Riketts. However, despite resolving this (thank you Wiki, although you've never heard of Eli, Google has), I am still unsure about 'the point'. Who said what to whom? (and perhaps why?).

May 13, 2016 at 9:40 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

Alan Kendall, Eli confirms the devastating consequences of climate change to mankind. The Dust Bowl conditions happened to coincide with a great financial depression in the USA.

Climate changes irrespective of CO2. Eli is not suggesting any link between CO2 and the Dust Bowl.

Is it possible that Eli is confirmint the point that the Syrian refugee crisis has absolutely nothing to do with CO2?

This could jeopardise any possible sponsorship deal with the Hockey Stick Defence Team

May 13, 2016 at 2:43 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golf Charlie.

Thank you for taking so much trouble to educate a rube like me.

So, this Eli fellah started the Syrian civil war because he was parched and blamed Steinbeck? Seems rather excessive to me. Are you sure, Wiki has never heard of this blogger?

Still at a loss about the rabbits (and the mice). Climate science is all so complicated for someone like me, who in less than 48 hours, has been branded both a retard and a type 1 thinker. My credibility here is on the rise!

Pity we are not discussing Ed Riketts, far more interesting. I think the BBC once did a programme about him and the Sea of Cortez; perhaps I could get him in that way. The BBC is so hot here.

May 13, 2016 at 3:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

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