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« Sahel greening confirmed | Main | Autocorrelation in the Sahel »
Monday
Sep142015

Turnbull's not for turning?

It's all go on the political front. While attention here has been focused on Jeremy Corbyn, in Australia, staunch sceptic Tony Abbott has been ousted by the considerably more eco-emollient Malcolm Turnbull, news that has been greeted with considerably satistifaction by our green friends.

Unfortunately, Turnbull has now gone and spoiled it all:

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Reader Comments (37)

I don't think we'll know what position anyone will take at Paris. I'm not even sure anyone knows themselves except the campaigners. With terrorists, immigrants, opposition parties, EU crisis, EU election, Russia playing silly sods, BRICK country trials and tribulations, who's going to be pedal to the metal on CO2?

Sep 14, 2015 at 3:11 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Bottom line is, whatever he does may affect Australian taxes and employment, but not the rest of the world.

Paris will fail for the same reasons that Copenhagen did: When push comes to shove, Western politicians that genuinely look into the economic abyss of signing up to binding, global, anti-carbon policies, they draw back in fear.

Quite rightly so.

Sep 14, 2015 at 3:12 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

michael hart, but they may dangle their legs over the edge for a while.

Sep 14, 2015 at 3:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Britain has effectively signed its economic death warrant with the Climate Change Act, & until it is repealed the pitcure is very bleak indeed!

Sep 14, 2015 at 3:45 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan the Brit

Turbull's Goldman Sachs.
Managing director of Goldman Sachs Australia (1997–2001) and a partner with Goldman Sachs and Co (1998–2001)
Obviously full on Climate Change mitigation doesn't suit economic reality eh?
Just enough for a quick profit though eh?

Sep 14, 2015 at 3:47 PM | Unregistered Commenterc777

What a great pity. Tony Abbott was a great PM.
A victim of left-leaning media attacks.
The ABC is much like the BBC- nuff said.

Sep 14, 2015 at 4:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterBitter&Twisted

Why would the Liberals have a leadership vote while in power unless an election was imminent and the leader was down in the polls? In Canada this usually happens after the election.

Sep 14, 2015 at 4:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterEric Gisin

TinyCO2 writes- "...who's going to be pedal to the metal on CO2?"

Well, the IPCC and Al Gore have been successful at "peddle to the medal on CO2", so who knows?

Sep 14, 2015 at 4:59 PM | Unregistered Commenterchris y

Anyone who trusts Malcolm Turnbull to honour his word about climate issues hasn't been paying attention. He is an opportunist interested only in his own career ambitions, and his inner-city seat is packed with environmentally precious people. His timing for this coup was perfect. He and his supporters knew that he had to go now or likely never, because if the Liberals won next week's Canning by-election with Abbott still in the PM's office, as the polls indicated would be likely albeit with a much reduced majority, the leadership pressure from the jellybacks would have been likely to subside.

With an ineffectual government (courtesy of a feral Senate) and an utterly corrupt and incompetent Labor opposition supported by an equally corrupt and incompetent media, this country is becoming ungovernable.

Sep 14, 2015 at 5:14 PM | Registered CommenterMique

chris y :-D

Sep 14, 2015 at 5:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Eric Gisin: See Mique's comment; in short, personal ambition - whether it's right for Australia or not.

Sep 14, 2015 at 5:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterMike Spilligan

TinyCO2, Greens can be kept happy, meddling with petals. They do have some use as flower arrangers in boardrooms and politics.

Sep 14, 2015 at 5:56 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Ah yes, the Enema within

Sep 14, 2015 at 7:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterAnoneumouse

@turnbullmalcolm says no intentions to change #climate policy. "It's very well designed".


What about immigration policy.

Sep 14, 2015 at 7:47 PM | Unregistered Commenterjamspid

"Trust me, I worked for Goldman Sachs!"


yup.

Sep 14, 2015 at 7:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterAthelstan.

Mique has summed it up pretty well, I would just add an explanatory note. Malcolm Turnbull was opposition leader until 2009, and was working to do a deal with then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to introduce an emissions trading scheme. His own party (the Liberal Party) revolted against this. Tony Abbott became opposition leader (just scraped in by one vote) by promising to change tack on the climate stuff. Abbott then successfully hammered the government on this and other issues (including illegal boat arrivals), and eventually became Prime Minister.

Has Turnbull changed his spots? Unlikely. For a flavour of what non-left voters think of Turnbull, have a look at the comments on Tim Blair's blog: http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/your_messages_to_prime_minister_turnbull/#commentsmore

Sep 14, 2015 at 8:26 PM | Unregistered Commenterrubberduck

Funny how this climate change is ripping a new one in the entire world but not touching Texas; the one place you would expect higher temperatures and sea levels. I suppose faith makes climate change!

Sep 14, 2015 at 10:09 PM | Unregistered CommenterOdins Acolyte

"No intentions to change climate policy" Well he would say that, wouldn't he?

Sep 14, 2015 at 10:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterGraeme No.3

Agree with others --Mique has summed it up extremely well.

Sep 14, 2015 at 11:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterRoss

When he says he doesn't want to change things, does that mean he is supporting Abbott's policies, or he is supporting the status quo and opposing Abbott's attempts at repeal?

Sep 15, 2015 at 12:46 AM | Unregistered CommenterMikeN

Mique has said it very well

Turnbull's inner-city seat is full of closet greenies (who also despise the brute-force unionism underpinning the Labor Party), and these people tend to vote 1) Liberal (Turnbull's group); 2) Green. It means his (Turnbull's own seat) is of a somewhat precarious disposition for him

Little known is that when Turnbull first ran for election in this electorate, named Wentworth, he was non-commital over AGW but raoidly changed his public mind when a local solicitor started to run a small local newsletter castigating him for his lack of clean, green, progressive credentials

He is first and foremost a lawyer (barrister) and will plausibly defend any position that advantages him

Sep 15, 2015 at 12:51 AM | Unregistered Commenterianl8888

One nuance worth noting. People refer to Turnbull's Wentworth electorate as being inner-city. That's kind of true, but it doesn't capture the fact that it's also Australia's wealthiest electorate. The voters (and just as importantly, the Liberal Party pre-selectors) don't care if the electricity price doubles again, they won't even notice. Ditto if there's another flood of illegal immigrants - none of them will live in Wentworth, or send their kids to schools in Wentworth, or compete for jobs with Wentworth voters. Wentworth includes the suburb of Point Piper, which has Australia's most expensive real estate in Wolseley Road, with houses selling for $10-$50 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolseley_Road

Sep 15, 2015 at 2:29 AM | Unregistered Commenterrubberduck

Turnbull's actions have created created massive divisions and resentment in his party, especially among rank and file. To reverse climate change policy within an hour of his coup would risk an irrevocable split.

I expect he will attempt his reversal of policy at a more opportune time. In the meantime, nothing he says that sound in any way conservative is to be trusted.

Sep 15, 2015 at 2:38 AM | Unregistered Commenterbraddles

From the National Post, an explanation by Andrew Coyne. Australia's Liberals use the original Westminster system, while Canada and UK use a modified system were the public choose leaders. He mentions Corbyn's win too.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/andrew-coyne-better-to-dump-a-leader-too-quickly-than-be-stuck-with-one-for-an-eternity

Sep 15, 2015 at 5:06 AM | Unregistered CommenterEric Gisin

Heh, here's Abbott speaking to the press: 'Refuse to connive at dishonor by wielding the assassin's knife.

Turnbull in charge of the ABC was poison pen, heh, squirting squid ink.

An aristocracy of information gone feral.

Part of Trump's appeal is that he is sharpshooting the Estated Vermin.

Sep 15, 2015 at 6:49 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

narciso points out that Turnbull has to follow the will of the Liberal caucus, and Faustino @ Judy's reminds us that he had to promise that caucus to continue Abbott's climate plan in order to get their support.

The Masque of Paris nigh.
=================

Sep 15, 2015 at 6:57 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

It looks like Turnbull's negotiations with fellow Liberals to get the numbers to roll Abbott included an agreement that the current policies on AGW and same sex marriage will stay the same until at least the next election (based on answers in question time in the Australian Parliament today).

So that, at least gets passed the Paris talkfest. what happens after that is anyone's guess.

But it seems that Turnbull is just all about Turnbull, first and for most ---party and country come later.

Sep 15, 2015 at 8:27 AM | Unregistered CommenterRoss

This is a good summary of Turnbull ‘quasi-corporatist’ from 2012 but still valid I think:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/australia/7795928/not-one-of-us/

Sep 15, 2015 at 9:35 AM | Unregistered CommenterChris Hanley

I'm afraid to burst Mique's bubble, but it is unlikely that Turnbull will change the government tack on climate change policy. His stance was what cost him the leadership of the Liberal Party in 2009, and he has likely learned from that. Besides, what is being overlooked is that he will govern in coalition with the National Party, and it is steadfastly opposed to any change to policy or target for Paris. They have made statements indicating that this would be a coalition breaker, meaning Turnbull might lead the Liberal Party, but he would no longer be PM. There have been reports that they are seeking a deal in writing, but there are no signs that he has even considered a change of policy. Indeed, he has said that there will not. Even if you do not take him at his word, believe in his enlightened self-interest. He has indicated the same on the government's commitment to a plebiscite on same sex unions, but after then next election. This is his second term as leader, and his environmental enthusiasms cost him the leadership last time. Asked to chose between climate change and his desire to be PM for as long as possible, most observers would back his ambition.

Sep 15, 2015 at 11:14 AM | Unregistered CommenterAynsley Kellow

Julia Turnbull will struggle to win the next election. He / she is not popular with core Liberal voters who see him as closer to Labor values than Liberal ones, he's preferred PM status comes from Greens / Labor voters. His despicable act of treachery has further alienated him. Julie Bishop was popular and seen as a future PM, but her involvement in this dastardly act has seen her popularity plummet.

Sep 15, 2015 at 11:15 AM | Unregistered CommenterDocBud

Turnbull is a Manchurian candidate. Go to the following site for background:
http://stopturnbull.com/

Sep 15, 2015 at 1:05 PM | Unregistered CommenterRicho

I certainly hope you're right, Aynsley, but he's such an arrogant specimen I'd never trust him out of sight on a dark night. His media claque might give him an extended honeymoon period, but the pressure will be on again within weeks rather than months, I suggest, and who knows what baggage will be thrown overboard in a desperate attempt to "save the furniture" in next year's general election. The maddening thing is that the Libs all the way back to Howard's last term have tried to appease the left despite the fact that they must realise that they will never pick up a single vote by doing so. The stop the boats campaign has been about the only issue where they have stuck to their guns, and I very much doubt if Turnbull has that sort of spine in him. The moment the ABC collective starts throwing rocks at him on climate or 'refugees' he'll go to water. Watch.

Sep 15, 2015 at 1:19 PM | Registered CommenterMique

Turnbull is a backstabbing opportunist. Nobody who has followed his career could say that he has any core principles or convictions whatsoever.

He's sort of like Tony Blair Down Under.

Sep 15, 2015 at 2:08 PM | Registered Commenterjohanna

No core convictions what so ever. Typical politician then

Opposite to Jeremy Corbin who has got plenty of core convictions . Unfortunately just the wrong sort of core convictions.

Fortunately Jeremy does not give into political correctness and have token blacks and women in his cabinet.Well almost..

Sep 15, 2015 at 4:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterJamspid

> The moment the ABC collective starts throwing rocks at him on climate or 'refugees' he'll go to water. Watch (Mique)

Yes

Kellow and Faustino are Pollyannas here. (I admit I despise Faustino's cloying)

Sep 16, 2015 at 1:05 AM | Unregistered Commenterianl8888

Australia's conservative side is a coalition of the Liberal Party and the National Party. The vote that Turnbull got was within the Liberal Party. If the National had been included, he would not have won.
Just before he met the Governor-General to be sworn into office, he gave approval to National Party demands that he would retain the Abbott policies on greenhouse. In further comments, he labelled the existing greenhouse commitments as being achieved at low cost, adding is essence that he was in favour of results before idealism.
We now wait to see, pre-Paris, what little tricks might be in the wings to sell out Australia to Agenda 21.
Geoff.

Sep 16, 2015 at 5:14 AM | Unregistered CommenterGeoff Sherrington

It has now been confirmed that the Nationals sought and received from Turnbull in a letter to the side agreement to the coalition agreement an undertaking that a number of existing policies, including that on climate change, would be adhered to. The knew his his history on this and did not trust an verbal undertakings. It is also reported that he gave similar undertakings to members of his own party to get his majority of 10 (ie 6 votes change, he's gone). Given his stand on and ETS thwarted his ambition last time, and that loss of Nationals support would cost him the Prime Ministership, I think we can say he is locked in — barring some kind of exceptional developments.

Sep 16, 2015 at 10:15 PM | Unregistered CommenterAynsley Kellow

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