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« Doom, doom, doom, another one bites the dust | Main | Behind solar power's bamboo curtain »
Tuesday
May262015

Uberhubering

I commend to BH readers Chris Hope's Twitter output this morning. Chris is at a climate conference in Stockholm at the moment, where delegates are being royally entertained by somebody called Matt Huber, from Purdue University. Huber shows that if you assume crazy things on climate sensitivity and crazy things on emissions you can come up with some truly crazy predictions. His talk is apparently generating "intense interest". I have made some excerpts from Chris's tweets below.

 

 

I think we should refer to this approach as "uberhubering".

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Reader Comments (35)

Check out Mathew Huber's Climate Dynamics Prediction Laboratory:

http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~huberm/Matthew_Hubers_Climate_Dynamics_Prediction_Laboratory/CDPL.html

A little Huberistic?

May 26, 2015 at 10:11 AM | Registered Commenterdennisa

I don't know why, but when I load pages containing all the twitters which you put up, they vanish from sight after about 5 seconds.

May 26, 2015 at 10:16 AM | Unregistered CommenterOtter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)

Just wondering - is there any connection at all between these people and the real world?

May 26, 2015 at 10:29 AM | Unregistered CommenterAndrew Duffin

All that talk of steam and huge temperature rises has gone to his head apparently - or some other part of his anatomy.

May 26, 2015 at 10:40 AM | Unregistered CommenterJaime Jessop

ON the last tweet...Frighten the sheeple with mass immigration as a reason not to burn coal. Interesting slant.

May 26, 2015 at 10:47 AM | Unregistered Commenterconfused

#complete_cobblers

May 26, 2015 at 10:48 AM | Unregistered Commenternot banned yet

And this guys walks the streets unattended?

May 26, 2015 at 10:53 AM | Unregistered CommenterJeremy Poynton

confused, The immigration point is critical for the scare.
It's obvious that most of the rich countries need a bit more heat - he even uses Sweden as an example.

So this is just another "poor people in Africa are suffering" story. And we know that the best way to deal with that is to stop them being poor. That doesn't involve worrying about living in a Chinese Laundry.

Thus, even in a science fiction dystopia, he needs to exaggerate to make AGW a problem worth prioritising over poverty reduction.

May 26, 2015 at 11:12 AM | Registered CommenterM Courtney

Chris Hope @cwhope
Climate sensitivity is uncertain, but if we burn it all, temperature will rise by about 10 degC #StockholmSCC
8:10 AM - 26 May 2015

I'll re-phrase that:

The number of braincells I have is uncertain, but even if I can get a reasonable proportion of them to function normally, my extraordinary gullibility, combined with my devout faith in the CO2 induced AGW thesis, will ensure that I spend the rest of the day re-tweeting complete bollocks about an alleged 10C rise in average temperatures and millions of people dying from heat stress before tea time.

May 26, 2015 at 11:12 AM | Registered Commenterlapogus

To induce some moral education in your people we used to tell Fairy Stories which were until the Victorians deballed them real horror stories. Now we tell Climate Change scenarios with 2 sets of balls.

May 26, 2015 at 11:14 AM | Registered CommenterBreath of Fresh Air

The IPCC says that:

As of 2010, we could release a maximum of about 1000 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide and still have a 50:50 chance of staying below two degrees, according to the IPCC.

Today's paper compares this allowable carbon budget with scientists' best estimate of how much oil, gas and coal exist worldwide in economically recoverable form, known as "reserves".

Were we to burn all the world's known oil, gas and coal reserves, the greenhouse gases released would blow the budget for two degrees three times over, the paper finds.

Huber goes further, but there seems to be confusion as to whether we're burning 1000-5000GT of fossil fuels or the amount that would release that amount of 'carbon'. In either case, I figure it would take quite a few life-times to burn all that, by which time I have faith in man's technological advances to have come up with a form of energy that did not rely on f-f.

But that's not on the agenda with people like Huber: all they see is catastrophe. He is the epitome of a shroud waver.

May 26, 2015 at 11:19 AM | Unregistered CommenterHarry Passfield

My favourite tweets so far

1) "Day 1 recap: GCM experiment showing a huge jump in ECS from 2degC to 6 degC for the 4th doubling of CO2 concentration"

2) "Myles Allen says they weren't wrong to reduce bottom end of ECS range down to 1.5 degC even if studies were too simple."

My interpretation of these is 1) Death and destruction will rain down on humanity and 2) Myles Allen doesn't want to be sent to an asylum with the others.

May 26, 2015 at 11:20 AM | Unregistered Commenterson of mulder

(Apologies for longish comment/quote) This was the 2009 article by Monbiot claiming that we should leave 'carbon' in the ground, and quoting Myles Allen etc. in the Guardian. It covers the way they have calculated reserves of FF in the earth:


According to the World Energy Council:

global reserves of coal amount to 848 billion tonnes(3)

global reserves of natural gas are 177,000 billion cubic metres(4)

global reserves of crude oil are 162 billion tonnes(5)

Because the calculations are much harder and the quantities involved less certain, I am ignoring unconventional sources of fossil fuel, such as tar sands, oil shales, bitumens and methane hydrates, as well as liquid natural gas resources.

On average, one tonne of coal contains 746 kg carbon(6)

One cubic metre of natural gas contains 0.49 kg carbon(7)

The figure for oil is less certain, because not all of its refinery products are burnt. But the rough calculation here(8) suggests that the use of a barrel of oil releases 317kg of CO2. Depending on the density of the oil, there are roughly 7 barrels to the tonne, giving an approximation of 2219kg CO2, or 605kg of carbon.

So the carbon content of official known reserves of coal, gas and oil amounts to:

848 x 0.746 = 633

+

177,000 x 0.00049 = 87

+

162 x 0.605 = 98

Total conventional fossil fuel reserves therefore contain 818 billion tonnes of carbon.

Which seems a long way from Huber's fantasy that it will take 5,000GT to raise the temp by 10 deg. I wonder what calculation Huber used.

May 26, 2015 at 11:34 AM | Registered CommenterHarry Passfield

son of mulder: ... Death and destruction will rain down on humanity . Indeed.

http://snag.gy/LPUXq.jpg

May 26, 2015 at 11:38 AM | Registered Commenterlapogus

If my uncle had .......
If my aunt had.......

May 26, 2015 at 11:57 AM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

So we're all going to die, right?

May 26, 2015 at 12:13 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

these are the new well paid catholic bishops discussing how many angels can dance on a pin

anyway there IS the precautionary principle (as well as sound investing ) which demands:
-massive investment in nuclear
-stop all immigration
-stop subsidizing babies or any population growth (eg 3rd world "help")
-run the economy as efficient as possible (small state)
-wash away economic excesses (eg billionaires and their yachts and jets, and all big houses extra council tax)

Note these are all things the Champagne Left will be AGAINST

May 26, 2015 at 12:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterVenusNotWarmerDueToCO2

It is really good to know that global warming has run out of science, and is back to silly and outrageous scaremongering.

Climate science credibility could fall further, than previously thought possible.

May 26, 2015 at 12:30 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

It's nice to know these old fashioned no-holds bars alarm about anything and everything people are not entirely extinct.

The world would be a much less colourful place if people like that disappeared entirely.

May 26, 2015 at 12:31 PM | Registered CommenterMikeHaseler

I hope they brought t-shirt and shorts so they not overheated here in Sweden.

http://www.smhi.se/en/weather/sweden-weather/observations#

May month anomaly from normal 1961 - 1990.

http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/kartor/showImg.php?par=tmpAvv

May 26, 2015 at 1:17 PM | Unregistered Commenterpekke

I live in Darwin Australia. In November our average maximum is 33 degrees Celsius, our minimum is 25.3 degrees Celsius our relative humidities are between 60 and 70 percent? I am not sure what wet bulb temperature this is but it's f...ing hot. Yet we all survive (I even live in a non- air conditioned house), get some work done, and even quite like it.

May 26, 2015 at 1:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterMichael

pekke - ta for the links. I just had a look at your link to the Swedish SMHI weather stations. I noticed that 16 of the 40 are at airports - you have all those forests and uninhabited countryside, and SMHI decides to use stations highly susceptible to UHI...

May has been colder than average here in Scotland also. Not as cold as it was in 2013 though.

May 26, 2015 at 2:49 PM | Registered Commenterlapogus

Methinks Mr (Dr?) Huber has not been taking his medication.
Neither have the audience.

May 26, 2015 at 3:01 PM | Unregistered CommenterBitter&Twisted

Obviously he's a care in the community type, the community being academia.

Pointman

May 26, 2015 at 3:07 PM | Unregistered CommenterPointman

I know I shouldn't have, but I did google Matt Huber. He has Hockey Team facial hair, and is photographed with known Hockey Team associates.

His climate science convictions, are on record, and no trial has yet confirmed hs ability to be right.

May 26, 2015 at 3:08 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Michael Hart,

Eventually, yes.

Just not from climate change.

May 26, 2015 at 8:31 PM | Unregistered Commentertimg56

"The world would be a much less colourful place if people like that disappeared entirely." --MikeHaseler

But a much safer one.

May 27, 2015 at 1:38 AM | Unregistered Commenterjorgekafkazar

"Matt Huber thinks implications of heat stress results is mass migrations of 2 billion people out of worst affect areas #StockholmSCC"

It's even worse than that, because the inability to work apparently persists even after moving to a cold climate. The median time before a 'refugee' to Sweden from the Middle East or Africa starts working is eight years.

May 27, 2015 at 11:42 AM | Unregistered Commentertty

tty:

Boy, you'd think they'd never leave the Arcadia of the Middle East and Africa at all where evidently no-one has to work.

yr. Grace:

Sure you want the previous comment on your site?

May 27, 2015 at 4:09 PM | Unregistered Commenteranonym

Dawn is a trigger warning.
======

May 27, 2015 at 8:18 PM | Unregistered Commenterkim

"Sure you want the previous comment on your site?"

I presume "anonym" (sounds Swedish by the way) considers my comment as racism. However it is based on official Swedish statistics. And even to reach this figure one hour per week is considered sufficient to be "at work". After fifteen years the proportion "at work" reaches 65%, still with the same somewhat lenient definition.

May 27, 2015 at 10:06 PM | Unregistered Commentertty

And trying to hide the truth is the precise reason why the left will not return to power in my lifetime!

May 28, 2015 at 12:29 AM | Unregistered CommenterFarleyR

One of the valuable tools any group if self respecting group of kiwi lads had (as I was growing up) was the use of "taking the p1ss" out of anyone who said something stupid.

It was a great way of ensuring anything dumb was corrected almost immediately and would be hugely beneficial within academia and climate science!

Think about it. Here is something being said that is so blatantly screwed up that every scientist worth their weight on salt should immediately be taking not only large chunks of p1ss out of this guy but they should also be slapping him across his forehead to reinforced who dumb he is being!

Sadly, as this is climate science everyone just sits around thoughtfully looking at each other as if this clowns mutterings are actually meaningful.

Mailman

May 28, 2015 at 10:08 AM | Unregistered Commentermailman

'In India today it is 49 degC with 70% humidity '
has it has been many times over history and yet India today still has over a billion people living there.
Amazing how we unable to do the things we could do in the past despite modern technology .

May 28, 2015 at 10:58 AM | Unregistered Commenterknr

http://www.scribd.com/doc/180692730/Hanergy-Report-pdf#scribd

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May 28, 2015 at 2:44 PM | Unregistered Commenterferd berple

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