Monday
Mar232015
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Ringberg
Mar 23, 2015 Climate: sensitivity Climate sensitivity experts from around the world are spending the next week at a castle in Germany. The Ringberg conference features a stellar cast of speakers who will look at the latest developments in the area.
For readers who are on Twitter, highlights of the discussions can be seen on the Ringberg15 hashtag. Some BH regulars will be interested in one of the first tweets, from Gavin Schmidt:
Knutti and Gregory giving lots of examples of how simple assumptions in forcing/feedback paradigm break down.
Reader Comments (28)
Simple assumptions, such as 'all feedbacks are positive'?
Well I hope all the experts traveled there by sailing ship, by bicycle or by solar planes. But perhaps when they've pinned the sensitivity to CO2 down to zero they can all drive or fly home using fossil fuels.
This is going to have to be a damage limitation exercise by Schmitters and his friends, because things are not looking good on that front for them.
At least Nic Lewis has been invited.
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/atmosphaere/WCRP_Grand_Challenge_Workshop/Ringberg_2015/Participants_last.pdf
and Lewis/Currie in the literature:-
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/the-atmosphere-in-the-earth-system/ringberg-workshop/ringberg-2014.html
As a scientist I would normally look forward with enthusiasm to hearing the conclusions reached by a group of global experts.
However, this is climate science and I feel depressed that some consensus will be reached that perpetuates the alarmist message.
Which rises an interest question, given that climate models have proved to have little predictive skills but great career enhancing ones . Will this group decide these models are great or really great .
Not 'experts'. That word 'expert' is overused generally but particularly in climate science. Each and every one of them are merely speculating based on assumptions now proven to be invalid. The best we can get from this sensitivity exercise is an upper bound but when policy needs forced through the scientivists will still use a sensitivity value they pulled straight from their fat tails.
Just seen a chart from Realclimate showing Charney sensitivity at 2C - 4.5C. Charney actually says 1.5C - 4.5C. Sloppy real scientists in action?
Ah, 'experts'.
X is the unknown quantity and a spurt is a drip under pressure.
I think that sums up most of the climate experts.
Wouldn't it be nice if there were a protest outside from "Friends of Fossil Fuels", the new campaigning organisation (current membership = 1) dedicated to highlighting all the benefits of fossil fuels.
The reverse protests (greens outside a Heartland conference) would get top billing by the BBC and fellow travellers, surely their charter would force coverage of "Friends of Fossil Fuels".
settled science, no more ??
Who will be fired
"However, this is climate science and I feel depressed that some consensus will be reached that perpetuates the alarmist message.
Mar 23, 2015 at 9:38 AM | Schrodinger's Cat"
It won't be consensus if Nick Lewis is there. It might be 97% if enough warmists turn up and some multiplier is added to the alarmists. Originally I thought that we would see some sense in climate science if the pause extended to 15 year or longer, but how wrong I was. We are into religion now. The faith must be defended at all costs.
Simple feedback mechanism in climate science
1. Tell them it is bad, and more money is required
2. Get more money, and go to step 1
The purpose of the meeting is to try to counter our arguments about the lack of warming sufficiently that the UN will get their cherished resolution through at Paris before Obama is turfed out.
There will be a lot of talk, Nic will be made to feel like a VIP, but I suspect the main reason for the meeting is that he is being set up. He will find that at the end he is asked to agree to a statement endorsing action based on his own forecast. One which he is damned if he does agree and damned if he does not.
They will then say "look sceptics also agree" or "look sceptics are just ideologically driven and won't even follow their own logic".
MikeHaseler
That is a depressing and cynical assessment to take, and prediction to make.
Sadly for science, I entirely agree with your diagnosis and prognosis.
I guess they will be there working out how to rebut recent papers on climate sensitivity prior to Paris. You can feel the hysteria mounting slowly; there seems to be more and more apocalyptic coverage of something which isn't happening. I wish they would just STFU and **** off. I'm getting to the point where I *want* a new Ice Age before I shuffle of, just to see the world turn on these huckster, shysters, and b******s.
Ah, yes. The Ringberg Defense against mounting evidence of low sensitivity.
It seems apparent, JP, that a prolonged cold spell is the only cure for this exaggerated narrative of catastrophic human-caused warming. Tough love. Gaia's up for the challenge and the cure, but when I don't know.
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Time to bring up my old saw.
The higher the sensitivity the colder we would now be without man's effort. You'd better hope that the recovery from the coldest depths of the Holocene has been predominantly natural, 'cuz if man's done the heavy lifting of warming we can't keep it up for much longer.
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Here's something that's just kinda sad. Early in the twitter stream Ken Rice is begging the denizens of the Ring for ammo to use against Stevens' albedo paper. Imagine the poor Ring dweller fixing his bayonet in the hopeless recognition that the ammo's run out.
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Hahaha, I read a little further and some good may come from this after all. It seems the Ring denizens have discovered uncertainty. That's likely to be healthy for them; the sickening part for some will be the gloss of certainty put on their deliberations by the final outcome of the talks. And that sickness is a festering boil, ready to go systemic. Gavin pokes at it, but can't get it drained.
They can't explain the 20th Century without CO2, they can't explain the 21st, or any other century, with CO2.
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Der Ring des Klimaforschern: Kohlenstoff-Dämmerung, or making a tree ring mountain(Ring-Berg) out of a molehill.
Heh, been reading Brandi on Carolus V and these dudes act besieged. How come?
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Where Eagles Dare
https://youtu.be/b-_P-DoBe6E
Ha ha, now what was it I was saying to ATTP just a few days ago? Oh yeah...
This has always been obvious. Their sudden realisation of this just when they need to re-write the narrative because it is falling apart doesn't really give me any confidence that climate science is turning a corner.
This castle. Does it have dungeons?
Just wondering...
Jeremy Poynton:
It does have Room 101.
I hope passage to the Tower is restricted.
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