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« Some weapons-grade sophistry | Main | Schools: not activist enough »
Wednesday
Nov112015

Science (it says here)

Roger Harrabin has a new three part series on the science of climate change starting next week on Radio 4.

Climate talks typically end in disenchantment and disarray, so will this year's summit in Paris be any different? In this three part series Roger Harrabin examines the science, politics and solutions of climate. In the first of this series he looks at the science behind climate change. Predicting the future climate is a pretty tricky business and over the last twenty five years or so its had a chequered history. Roger talks to the scientists about their models and asks if they are accurate enough or should they just be consigned to the dustbin. He takes tea with the leading US politician who simply won't be convinced of man-made climate change. He meets the "luke-warmers" who believe in climate change but don't think the planet will warm as much as predicted. He will also examine the current predictions and how confident we should be.

Expectations are set to low.

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Reader Comments (64)

"..should they just be consigned to the dustbin?"

And will Wodja actually ask that? I wonder...

Nov 11, 2015 at 12:44 PM | Registered Commenterjamesp

OOOOoooohhhh, so excited just can't wait I wonder if it's been nominated for any prizes yet, will have to make sure that it's taped so that we can replay it again Xmas day when all the family are around.

Nov 11, 2015 at 12:46 PM | Unregistered CommenterLord Beaverbrook

"if it's been nominated for any prizes"

It's probably already won them, rather like Obama's Peace Prize...

Nov 11, 2015 at 12:50 PM | Registered Commenterjamesp

"..will this year's summit in Paris be any different?"
I predict it will be more expensive and more disappointing to alarmists than those gone before. Still they will be disappointed in luxuriously hypocritical surroundings and that's really the main thing. Actually solving a problem (or a non-problem) would mean no more junkets.

Nov 11, 2015 at 12:50 PM | Unregistered CommenterJamesG

Also see stewgreen's Discussion post

Nov 11, 2015 at 12:59 PM | Unregistered CommenterMessenger

This is your Paris crystal ball right here.


"According to US special envoy on climate change, Todd Stern, the US is unhappy with the prospect of a legally binding deal, knowing that getting it ratified in the Senate would be an uphill battle.

"Proposals that would involve, in effect, a kind of designated burden-sharing on how reductions should be split up among countries of the world has extremely little chance of political viability," he said, speaking to reporters last month.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30373738


The Americans ain't paying no tea taxes for nobody,never.

Nov 11, 2015 at 12:59 PM | Unregistered Commenteresmiff

Does anyone know which luke-warmers he will be talking to? Bish? Ridley?

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:00 PM | Registered CommenterPaul Matthews

'Roger Harrabin has a new three part series on the science of climate change '
while that will probable be has well intentioned , honest and unbiased., has the KKK doing a program on racial integration =.


'Roger talks to the scientists about their models and asks if they are accurate enough or should they just be consigned to the dustbin. ' you mean the people his been more than happy to promote without question ?

'He meets the "luke-warmers" who believe in climate change but don't think the planet will warm as much as predicted. '
you mean the people he has often attacked because they dare to challenge those he promotes without question?


Sooner or later Harrabin will find himself follow Blacks path in pimping himself , his 'contacts ' and his BBC insider status to any green NGO or the renewable industry that will pay him , before that he needs to make sure they know where is 'loyalty' is and as 'true believer ' he can be trusted . And on that his done a good job so far, these programs offer him the chance to prove these further and it is chance he will take .

Its just a shame he has totally failed in his role has a journalist.

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:10 PM | Unregistered Commenterknr

Ok so the US, India and Russia are out of any deal already. The Chinese will talk about carbon efficiency as usual to avoid overtly saying they won't reduce CO2. Germany, France and now Australia and Canada will agree to continue to hamstring their economies. While the UK has already done all that was asked - ie a binding legal agreement - so there is no point them even being there. The smaller countries with their hands out will be promised much but delivered nothing just like before. And then they'll all agree to go a warmer place next time.

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterJamesG

BBC Green. Think Big. Start Small.

How does Harrabin's BBC thinking tie in with Mann's Hockey Stick?

Tell them Big Lies. Follow up with a continuous stream of drivel.

Did any global warming expert predict the unprecedented devastation caused by Mann? Perhaps this will be a major feature of Harrabin's explanation for the continued failure of global warming's self-congratulation parties.

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:16 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Nice of the BBC to give him 3 bites at the climate cherry rather than just the bone allocated to 'denier' Quentin Lett's.

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterCheshireRed

Nice of the BBC to give him 3 bites at the climate cherry rather than just the one allocated to 'denier' Quentin Lett's.

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:20 PM | Unregistered CommenterCheshireRed

I'm surprised that the wizards of variety and entertainment allowed Harrabin some air time, ah but then of course they didn't give him a proper prog' just some bit on R4 "nobody is listening radio".

Hells teeth, al Beeb must have standards and maintain 'em.

What with and between bake offs and pottery wheels, antiques and home refurbishing, execrable quiz shows and more bake offs, soaps and saps, maybe he [Harrabin] could have grilled [oops] the Strictly judges panel for a few mins in between another 'has been' making a total klutz out of him/herself on the dance floor..

"OK Len, can you tell me about your greenhouse gas theory?"

"it's all in the groovy dynamics luv, 'n' nice legs helps"

Over and out - Roger!

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:38 PM | Unregistered CommenterAthelstan.

knr, Harrabin is a huge success as a BBC climate science expert journalist. He only repeats what he is paid to, and for this, his bosses are truly grateful. Ignorance has never stopped any expert in climate science.

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:45 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

In the graphic: Think Big, Start Small'.

Is this a new catchphrase for the totalitarians of the eco-movement? Presumably it is there to warn off any follower who might dare to examine what benefits might result from all the 'actions' the cause demands unconditional support for.

A previous one was 'Think Global, Act Local'. This was to by-pass democracy and any examination of conditions special to some town, region, or country. It meant, in practice, 'the thinking has been done for you, you just do what it says wherever you are'.

Shoddy stuff, and dangerous too.

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:49 PM | Registered CommenterJohn Shade

So the BBC are now at least allowing non-alarmist climate views to be aired, but as with the IPCC the answer has clearly been decided in advance, as the third part of the series is about "solutions".

The BBC has a major hurdle to overcome before it can deal properly with "solutions", it has to allow the downsides of renewable energy to be given an airing, i.e. it has to loosen the grip that its "environmentalists" have on the issue. For example, this morning on R4 Harrabin reported on the UK losing its AAA energy rating from the World Energy Council, but that loss is to do with energy security not the environment, so should have been covered by an economist/business correspondent.

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:49 PM | Unregistered CommenterMikky

Your Grace
In the October edition of the Royal Meteorological Society magazine an entry by Colin Clark was published entitled "Two rural temperature records in Somerset UK".This study"describes the long period weather records from two stations in rural Somerset that do not show the trend of warming we should all expect to see due to the anthropogenic addition of carbon bearing gases into the atmosphere".
This article is introduced in the editorial.In this introduction the Editor says "Clearly we took a risk accepting Clark,s paper for publication." and later "We fully expect a surge of protest from the scientific community......"
Can science sink lower?
Roger

Nov 11, 2015 at 1:57 PM | Unregistered Commenterroger

I often want to watch Wild China which is being re-run now. However, Yosser p*sses me off each time he emits the climate bollox, so never get to see that vid all the way through.

Nov 11, 2015 at 2:03 PM | Unregistered CommenterEx-expat Colin

Why are us out and out deniers not being included in the programme? We don't need "luke-warmers, we need real scientists.

Nov 11, 2015 at 2:05 PM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

Why doesn't Channel 4 re-run 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' while the Paris conference is going on..?

Now THAT would be fun....

Nov 11, 2015 at 2:24 PM | Unregistered Commentersherlock1

Expectations are set to low.

Don't worry, the BBC will sneak under them. They will start by using an English graduate to "examine the science". What could go wrong?

Nov 11, 2015 at 2:26 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Interesting FOI for someone How much is the BBC electricity bill.

Broadcasting is highly energy intensive Transmitters and studio lights etc.
The BBC promoting action on Climate Change is just promoting higher Costs on itself and every one else

The old BBC TV centre in Shepard Bush actually has two mothballed Indusrial Gas Turbine Generators on site.
Perhaps the BBC might even have to consider moving back there.

Decarbonising the rest on British industry exporting our jobs and our carbon footprint abroad so why not the BBC.
Get rid of half the BBC local and Digital channels and upload the rest onto the IPlayer.

Clarkson and the Voice have gone to commercial rivals and the Beeb are just left with East Enders and Strictly.

Nov 11, 2015 at 2:29 PM | Unregistered CommenterJamspid

we have a 30y satellite record, do the models concurr with clouds? lightnings?

did the models predict more clouds and is it in accordance with the observations

or are the models just wrong across the board

Nov 11, 2015 at 2:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterVenusNotWarmerDueToCO2

Although past evidence warns against it, I'm going to wait until I actually hear some of Harrabin's propaganda before I condemn it.

Nov 11, 2015 at 2:51 PM | Registered CommenterM Courtney

Long since stopped caring what the BBC or Harrabin think about climate.

So, whilst it might be entertaining to see how far they realise what a pathetic mess they've got themselves into, I will have better things to do.

Nov 11, 2015 at 2:53 PM | Registered CommenterMikeHaseler

Actual quote from Harra & Black in 2007

“We should confidently take these debates forward, with a modern, accurate sense of impartiality in mind. This will help us to follow the BBC Trust’s goal of engaging people as citizens as well as audiences, and it will maximise the BBC’s unique contribution to an informed democracy.”
LOL as today's LONG report on BiasedBBC says after beginning by quoting it.

and @Jamspid You'll see it begins with a pie chart showing the CO2 given off by studio lights.

The item begins by dissecting the headline "Warming set to breach 1C threshold"..and pointing out the BBC fail to mention this years El Nino is really big> Then it moves on to Harra's denial of the Medieval Warming Period. ..and other points

Nov 11, 2015 at 2:59 PM | Unregistered Commenterstewgreen2

CheshireRed:

"Nice of the BBC to give him 3 bites at the climate cherry rather than just the one allocated to 'denier' Quentin Lett's."

Somehow I needed to see that a third time (too much watching Big Bang)

Nov 11, 2015 at 3:02 PM | Registered CommenterMikeHaseler

link : biasedbbc.org/blog/2015/11/10/the-whole-truth-and-nothing-but-the-truth

(sorry in the above post the proxy server corrupted the link, still works anyway if you type in the captcha)

Nov 11, 2015 at 3:03 PM | Unregistered Commenterstewgreen2

Climate talks typically end in disenchantment and disarray, so will this year's summit in Paris be any different?

I would expect the complimentary hors d'oeuvre to be better this time.

Nov 11, 2015 at 3:07 PM | Unregistered CommenterBloke in Central Illinois

Oh come onnn, it's the start of the new BBC comedy season, 8pm every Monday night R4's laughter fest culminating in a 2 week jamboree, 30 November - 11 December 2015, where all news will be suspended and comedy will take over the airwaves.

Nov 11, 2015 at 3:13 PM | Registered CommenterLord Beaverbrook

Slightly OT but David Evans is summarising his study of the basic climate model over at Jo Nova's blog. Two major problems are discussed. The corrected model demonstrates that CO2 induced warming is very modest and not a problem.

You will never hear anything like this rom Harrabin.

Nov 11, 2015 at 3:48 PM | Unregistered CommenterSchrodinger's Cat

"Roger talks to the scientists about their models and asks if they are accurate enough or should they just be consigned to the dustbin."
Bish? How can you forget? It's "Zero Waste", innit? Did you forget that this is true 'Zombie Science'?

NOTHING gets "consigned to the dustbin". They'll just blow off the dust and peel off the odd kipper skin. Voila! As good (nay, better!) than new!

Everything today has to be recycled! And recycled. And recycled.

As Private Eye's spoof John Peel put it on their Xmas record (back in the days when Private Eye was worth reading) "You may think it's a load of old rubbish, but that's your hangup!"

Nov 11, 2015 at 3:58 PM | Unregistered CommenterMartin Brumby

Martin Brumby, the beauty of climate models is they are recycled AND renewable. They are so accurate as a means of checking other models, that to throw out one model for it's inherent faults, would set a precedent, that is currently unprecedented.

The worst criticism the models ever get is that they are now better than ever, and so the sorry saga continues, with christmas bonuses all round, plus a glowing reference in the New Year's Honours List for those best placed to plan for the future of climate scientists everywhere.

The Golden Rule in global warming in the current hiatus/pause crisis, is DON'T MENTION MICHAEL MANN AND THE HOCKEYSTICK, as most of the skeletons will fall out of the cupboard.

Nov 11, 2015 at 5:09 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

will this year's summit in Paris be any different?

Yes, it will have a carbon footprint larger than the yearly carbon footprints of most of the small developing nations especially if you take into account the all the pre-meetings and the number of people involved in the worlds governments and the UN.

Also we shouldn't forget the carbon footprint left by all the limos and security cars both at the Paris meeting and the jollies around the French capital. Then there is the electricity that has been used to produce all the PR for this jamboree including all the 'new' peer reviewed papers and everything about it printed in the MSM - I can't include the electricity used in France because it will come from the EDF nuclear reactors.

The only problem is that they will never publish that sort of information just as they will never publish what it has cost the poor taxpayers overall.

Nov 11, 2015 at 5:21 PM | Unregistered Commenterivan

"Expectations are set to low."

I think you are overly optimistic. This is Harrabin we're talking about. The man who engineered the alarmist stance of the BBC. The man who said he couldn't find any sceptical scientists - and who kept saying it even after sceptical scientists publicly contacted him. If he mentions any sceptic position it will simply be to make the point that they "simply won't be convinced of man-made climate change" as if they are creationist nutters.

He is a propagandist. And I've written his name in my little black book for when the day comes. :)

Nov 11, 2015 at 5:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterJames Evans

LOL, according to Harrabin's preview on the radio, things are different now, China and USA are hand-in-hand, and solar power is transforming the world. Where does he get this c**p from?

Nov 11, 2015 at 6:09 PM | Unregistered CommenterMikky

Mikky, he plucks this c**p out of Fresh Air. This is the same source as homogenised temperature adjustments and other solid science underpinning climatology. Anything else would just be politicised guesswork.

Nov 11, 2015 at 6:23 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

This is Harrabin we're talking about. The man who engineered the alarmist stance of the BBC. The man who said he couldn't find any sceptical scientists - and who kept saying it even after sceptical scientists publicly contacted him. If he mentions any sceptic position it will simply be to make the point that they "simply won't be convinced of man-made climate change" as if they are creationist nutters.

He is a propagandist. And I've written his name in my little black book for when the day comes. :)

Nov 11, 2015 at 5:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterJames Evans

Yup. I've said it before, and perhaps I'm piling on, but let's not forget that even The Guardian has issued criticisms because the BBC is not able to find female experts on things like female health.

We should not therefore be surprised if BBC "analysts" like Roger Harrabin cannot find many real scientists. He was not trained to do so and, more importantly, has less than zero interest in doing so. He has a political agenda.

While the BBC supports such brazen political activity they will always receive my cold shoulder when another missive goes out along the line of "Hey, we're under attack from the nasty people."

Nov 11, 2015 at 6:29 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Expectations set to low?
You are all under their spell once again ^.^, You really think its about climate?
Down dark corridors and in smoke filled rooms, Sustainability is casting an ever longer and deeper shadow.

Nov 11, 2015 at 7:17 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Harrabin interviewed me, I'm pretty certain he talked to Matt Ridley, and he may have talked to Benny Peiser as well.

The full, unedited interviews -- mine is 90 minutes long -- will be published by the Open University.

Nov 11, 2015 at 7:20 PM | Unregistered CommenterRichard Tol

they will "talk" about "leadership", "how the little people should shower less" and then generally have a good time, in Paris.

I hope some will make an estimate of the dollar AND carbon expenditure of the parasiting feast.

Nov 11, 2015 at 7:35 PM | Unregistered CommenterVenusCold

Love the name - WodJah. But now I can't help thinking of the man getting all his climate info from a Ouijah board. (He probably does....)

Nov 11, 2015 at 7:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterHarry Passfield

Richard Tol Nov 11, 2015 at 7:20 PM

Harrabin interviewed me, I'm pretty certain he talked to Matt Ridley, and he may have talked to Benny Peiser as well.

The full, unedited interviews -- mine is 90 minutes long -- will be published by the Open University.

Thanks for that info. Please post a comment on follow-up threads to this with a link to the OE unedited interviews when they are available.

Cheers,

P

Nov 11, 2015 at 8:29 PM | Unregistered CommenterPcar

A couple of questions from a non UK resident. What sort of audience figures does Radio 4 get ? Would they likely get usual figures for the Harrabin program?

Nov 11, 2015 at 9:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterRoss

"Expectations are set to low"

Setting out in a pair of stout shoes and a pith helmet to high mindedly map strange beliefs and eventually edit it all together in a manner both patronising and laced with barely concealed scorn - just in time to swan over to Paris for an ovation... nah - couldn't be could it?

One of the central figures in 28gate getting all honest and objective ? I have an extensive selection of headwear (not including the motorcycle helmet) that I will eat if he's had a Damascene moment ....

Maybe it'll be OK .... but I do not trust Wod-Jah the climate haruspex.

Nov 11, 2015 at 9:42 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Ross: Numbers are not large, but concentrated in the higher educated part of the population.

Nov 11, 2015 at 9:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterRichard Tol

Ross, Radio 4 is BBC. It has historically, been a well respected source of news and current affairs. It is broadcast across the country, and for those who want news, whether at home or in the car etc, it is 'influential'. As the BBC have decided the facts of Global Warming based on outspurts from Harrabin et al, it is very sad and depressing, not least for the BBC's future. For me, my sentimental support for the BBC, as a taxpayer funded institution, has dried up. Of course I still watch and listen, but I no longer trust the BBC.

Nov 11, 2015 at 10:48 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

'solutions of climate'

What does that even mean?

Nov 11, 2015 at 11:45 PM | Unregistered CommenterGamecock

It must be nice for Harrabin to have a whole national media network to spout / spin and lie his beliefs / agenda on appearing to have to answer to no one at all .... how can this be ?
Who actually pulls his strings ?
Dont see any equivalent Green Parrot zealots of similar exposure on the other major networks

Nov 12, 2015 at 12:25 AM | Unregistered CommenterBLACK PEARL

Tremendous, sharply observed and skewering post from Donna, referring to the pusillanimity of the abject, craven, gutless IPCC and it is all about political myth making and nothing to do with science nor, climate come to mention it.

Roger [Harridan], his mate Ricky Black, seems more prescient and could read the writing on the wall. Moonbat, similarly - these days with George, has anyone 'heard the silence' and noteworthy lack of climate doom mongering emanating from out of his green church belfry?
Harrabin, yet clings on, he reminds me of a fish gulping for air on a the deck of a trawler, wide fishy eyed panic - the world, of the days of his 'uninquiring easy chair' comfortable sinecure - is coming to an end. Programmes he must make! Aye, in Harrabin's mind - the great scam never, ever dies and will always live on, where is.......... his white charger or, does he drive an electric car these days?

Nov 12, 2015 at 12:40 AM | Unregistered CommenterAthelstan.

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