Monday
Aug112014
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill More capacity margin shrinkage
Aug 11, 2014 Energy: grid Several nuclear reactors have been forced to close down temporarily due to a fault identified during routine inspection of their boilers. Initial estimates are that it will take eight weeks to fix the affected plant in Heysham and Hartlepool.
If it takes much longer, the capacity margins for the winter will start to look very interesting indeed.
Reader Comments (39)
What are the non-MET-UK estimates for the kind of winter coming your way?
Some time ago I suggested our new Fascists, the elite using fake IPCC fizzicks to control the Grid and via smart meters and BTL gain totalitarian rule, could only be countered by imposing temporary power cuts earlier than otherwise would be the case. The purpose would be to evoke political reaction before the Election rather than later.
There is a commercial imperative here: the windmills can't operate as the likes of Davey and our Great Leader with family interests, try to claim. However, 25 years of propaganda has conditioned the population into accepting this lurch to extremism, renewed rule by Aristocracy and the public school system. Only EdF has the ability, by taking out base load generating capacity, to demonstrate reality!
These AGRs have been hanging on for years (well ever since they were commissioned really). They are the product of Government scientists who insisted on the "invented here" philosophy. Had our nuclear programme been based on the best engineering solution available, rather than politics, then we would never have had any of the AGRs. We should have gone down the route that the French took.
Bish
Can't see how there will be a problem during the winter when our ever expanding arrays of solar panels will generate massive amounts of power, even on short dull days and double that amount at night.
tonyb
Phillip Bratby
Unfortunately France has fallen into the wind trap too now.
Sandy: Yes indeed, their huge fleet of reactors is aging rapidly and they are doing nothing to replace them, except as you say, with windmills.
The BBC lunchtime news covered this issue in great depth. I don't recall such coverage of the fire and shutdown reported recently in the Ferrybridge biomass/coal power station.
Tonyb: 'Can't see how there will be a problem during the winter when our ever expanding arrays of solar panels will generate massive amounts of power, even on short dull days and double that amount at night.'
You never know, tonyb, your namesake, tonyb(lair) might drop his trousers whilst hanging from a self-powered hot air balloon at 60,000- ft! After all, it was on his watch that we entered this disastrous period of our country's history. There, problem solved AND a suitable job for the b*stard.
Ooooo, goodie! Power cuts! I say that with a metaphorical tongue-in-cheek since power cuts may be very disruptive to many people (whilst I myself am fully prepared) but it will actually take such an event for the PUBLIC to wake up to the full facts on our (lack of) energy policy. The blogosphere is well advised on these matters but their influence is as nothing compared to millions of irate voters. Bring it on!
It'll be FINE....
Its all FINE...
Wind is providing 15% of demand (courtesy of Bertha), so there we are - targets met; nothing to worry about - everything will be FINE...
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geoffreylean/100241035/the-protesters-are-winning-the-battle-against-fracking/
Meanwhile Shell's "shill' Geoffrey Lean is still being encouraged by his masters in Big Oil to oppose fracking IN THE UK.
Last week we had all that rubbish about fish, this week it was all about butterflies and other "bugs" being in decline, despite this being one of the best years ever for them.
He's allowed to cover other "environmental issues" so that he doesn't look like a "one-trick anti-fracking pony".
Doubtless the owners of the former Torygraph value the "advertising revenue" from Big Oil.
Toad - you need to be clear that the pressure for UK to be dependent on foreign imports comes from the suppliers of those imports like Gazprom Открытое Акционерное Общество (Газпром). It is only by UK being dependent on these importers that it can be 'controlled'.
Can anyone say, roughly speaking, how many windmills it would take to replace the 4 off-line nuclear plants? A couple of thousand nominal 2.5MW maybe?
Being a slightly Greenday prepper, I've just invested in a buzz saw. That, the standby axe, a ready supply of trees and an open fireplace or two should get us through winter. Prepare or pray for Putin's largesse this winter after he swallows up the rest of the Ukraine ...
Pointman
@ Nicholas - 12:57
You tell me the wind conditions, on say 25th December, then I'll predict the number of windmills needed.
It seems likely that this winter in the UK will be similar to 2009/10. That is cold at first. This is because the Pacific is currently and is projected to be very similar to that year.
There are of course many problems with this forecast and I'm not putting money on it but it does seem that the probabilities tend to cold.
For the current dick heads in power across europe and the UK, and just before the UK election, this could be a disaster.
Ian W.
Having just got back from Russia I'm very well aware that they, even more than Shell want to "inhibit" any fracking in the EU and would do whatever it takes to stop it.
While I was there the awful Green Baroness from Brighton, Jenny Jones(who works in the next office to Boris) kept appearing on Russian Television to tell us how evil UK fracking is.
With "friends" like these, who needs enemies ?
However I've no evidence that Geoffrey Lean works with or for Gazprom, but plenty that he he works with Shell and their "Senior Climate Change Adviser" David Hone.
Otter,
I hope winter is as mild as the last one!
Mailman
Phillip Bratby
Unfortunately France has fallen into the wind trap too now.
Aug 11, 2014 at 12:04 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS
BIG TIME !! They are planning to close half their nucléar power station from now to 2025 and erect 7.000.000 power ponts beside the roads for electric cars which they are going to force all of us to drive. They are currently raising all taxes on fossil fuel consumers and have made it illegal to protest against wind mills.
I predicted last year at a meeting of the town council that the european economy will collapse in 2015. It is still on the cards, I believe. Italy currently reccession, France in difficulties soon to be in recession, German economy failing as a result of energy prices and the Russian sanctions, Holland, Belgium, Luxembourg are irrelevent.
I had a power cut yesterday. I suspect it was due to the high wind. Or it could have been the 10% margin that Davey told us made more economic sense than the traditional 25%.
I shared an email on this nuclear story with Clive Best, Leo Smith and Hugh Sharman earlier today. Gridwatch does not provide evidence to support claims that 2 nukes are off line. It seems the FT story is inaccurate. There was speculation that the story may be designed to send a price ripple from which some may profit.
Aug 11, 2014 at 2:10 PM | Registered CommenterEuan Mearns
As you say the Grid does not show any drop in Nuclear input, perhaps they got the start date wrong?
I understand that the shutdowns will begin in the next few days. There is no point shutting them down until all preparations for the work are in place and the plans are approved.
Am I a nerd? I went straight to Gridwatch when I read this story - as I see others have done as well!
I see the wind is actually blowing now - up to 5 GW just now. Looking back (on Gridwatch) I can't see wind ever getting above 5 GW - does anyone know what the nominal installed wind generation capacity is these days? I was expecting that we should be seeing higher max numbers as more turbines are being installed, but even with the good conditions being supplied by the remnants of Bertha it does not seem to be a higher max than was seen last year.
Rob:
Go to BMreports and scroll down to 'Peak Wind Generation Forecast'. You will see that the total metered wind capacity is currently 8403MW. This figure does not include the smaller wind farms and wind turbines which are not metered (ie not visible to the grid).
Rob
"as more turbines are being installed"
But there are also more getting old, breaking down, catching fire and/or falling over, so the graph will be asymptotic.. :-)
Thanks Philip and James,
So, on a (supposedly) good day for wind, we have about 60% of capacity.
I just wanted to get a bit of an idea of what the actual situation is for wind turbines. No system ever works at 100% - that is why we have over-capacity built in (for repairs as this article is all about), but is this the best we can expect from wind?
Given the highly distributed nature (and the variable nature of winds even over a "small" island such as GB) is 60% a good number even?
Euan
EDF's website confirms the story.
Rob: Go to John Muir Trust and download the report 'Analysis of UK Wind Power Generation'. It will give you some idea of what wind power to expect'.
Bish,
Not really....
Heysham 1
Heysham 2
One reactor is offline at Heysham 1 for scheduled maintenance. The other is churning out 543 MW.
At Heysham 2, both reactors are fully operational churning out 1240 MW
At Hartlepool, one reactor is on and the other off for unscheduled maintenance and so it is really only 585 MW out of a total 3496 MW that is off line unscheduled.
But the general premise of your posting is sound. The UK can ill afford to lose a couple of nukes in Dec-Feb. Especially if we decide to go to war with Russia. I find this somewhat worrying, sent email to Phil Hammond requesting explanation.
US analysts conclude MH17 downed by aircraft
Its possible that EDF would like to take all off line but can't, which is also worrying - that's how accidents occur.
Euan
I think that tallies with my understanding. I had gathered when writing the piece that only some of the reactors were so affected, which is why I wrote about reactors rather than nuclear power stations.
Dominoes.
Bish,
I see you have linked to a different story to the one I read in the FT:
In fact so far only one reactor out of six has been taken off line unscheduled. The FT seems to be exaggerating somewhat. Its also worth pointing out that the defect is in the boilers and not the reactors themselves.
@ Nicholas at 12:57 PM
During one point in June the total output of 8403MW's worth of wind turbine "Capacity" dropped to 82MW (or just under 1%). So you have to work on this sort of basis to make any comparisons with a conventional power station. It's utterly irrelevant if they ran at 60% for 99% of the time - it only takes an hour of virtually no output to cripple the country. No, scrub that, it only takes a few minutes of virtually no output to cripple the country...
Dave Ward: Scrub that, it takes less than a second to cripple the country.
For information and to avoid confusion:
There are 3 nuclear PSs being referred to here: Hartlepool, Heysham 1 and Heysham 2.
Each them have 2 Advanced Gas Cooled Reactors (AGR). Each of these have 8 boilers to convert the heat in the hot carbon dioxide coolant into high pressure, superheated steam.
Hartlepool and Heysham 1 are essentially the same design. In particular, they have the same design of boilers.
Heysham 2 has a different boiler design, so different that they do not, even potentially, have the same problem.
The boilers at Hartlepool and Heysham 1 were designed to be replaceable but this has never been seriously considered. With their short remaining life, it would not be realistic.
If the problem is genetic to the design then 4 reactors (each with an associated turbine) could be affected.
Heysham 2 will not be affected by the design problem but could, of course, be affected by other problems.
For schematics of the Hart/Hey1 boiler design see:
http://www.thermopedia.com/content/638/#COILED_TUBE_BOILERS_FIG3
Alan Bates
Formerly employed by Nuclear Electric (the operators before EdF)
With regard to the situation in France, they are building a new plant at - if memory serves - Flamanville but it is behind schedule and over budget. Also, from a visit to the visitor centre at Gravelines, a lot of work is going on the get regulatory approval for lifetime extensions. Those could prove redundant if the plants are closed early for political reasons.
If France goes ahead with curtailing nuclear, there are implications for much of Europe. We are a regular customer for 2 GW through the interconnector and other countries take more, especially those afflicted with large-scale wind and solar. As France's reliable, despatchable capacity decreases, those external clients will be more vulnerable.
According to EDF here:
Hartlepool Unit 2 came off at 0900 11 August 2014 and is expected back in service w/c 6 October 2014.
Hartlepool Unit 1 comes off at 0900 12 August 2014 and is expected back in service on 26 October 2014.
Heysham 1 Unit 1 came off on 11 June 2014 and is expected back in service 7 October 2014
Heysham 1 Unit 2 comes off at 0900 13 August 2014 and is expected back in service 8 October 2014
Phillip Bratby says: "This figure does not include the smaller wind farms and wind turbines which are not metered (ie not visible to the grid)".
To avoid setting too many hares running on the metering of wind turbines, it is worth clarifying that all wind turbines are metered as a basic condition of the UK Electricity Act and the Electricity Codes. Distribution connected wind farms are unlikely to be involved in the Balancing Mechanism, and therefore less visible to National Grid (I assume this is what you mean), although this is quite different to whether or not they are metered.
Dave Ward says: "It only takes a few minutes of virtually no output to cripple the country..."
Don't get too alarmist about it Dave. There are arrangements designed to manage supply when there is a sudden shortage of power generation and grid frequency is falling.
The first line of defence is the normal operating reserve. If this is not sufficient, some load may be lost through voluntary agreements in the Balancing Mechanism and Ancillary Services Agreements (people - probably large demands - who have agreed to cut demand for a payment).
If this isn't enough there are involuntary load shedding measures. These are not good, but they are not catastrophic. For example, load can be shed through voltage reductions ("brown out"). This can be followed by controlled rota disconnection.
There is no guarantee that worse things cannot happen. However leaping to "crippling" is not justified.
Having worked as a boy engineer on maintenance planning at the now defunct Hinkley Point 'A' station, it was a well-known industry truism that if you got some chilly days in August, when so much generating plant was out for annual maintenance and people were tempted to switch on electric fires, then power cuts got awfully close...