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« What Julia told Dave | Main | Lord May under the cosh »
Thursday
Feb062014

95% Certain? Yes, we are! - Josh 256

Are we now 95% certain? Yes, we are! Hooray! 
  
Yesterday we heard from UK climate science community about their work on AR5. The event was called "Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis. The Working Group 1 contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." 
  
I was there to draw some cartoon notes. Here is my favourite.
And here is the note I made when Marcel Crok, also at the meeting along with Nic Lewis, explained exactly what we are all 95% certain of.
.. which is very good news, I think you will agree. We didnt hear a lot of cheering but we did see a lot of graphs, and I made some notes. Click the image for a large readable version.

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Reader Comments (19)

For a moment I thought it was Michael Mann and a friend sticking their heads out of the dirt.

Feb 6, 2014 at 6:28 PM | Unregistered CommenterBlack Dog

Okay my last comment was a bit weak on humour, but it does look like him and he does dwell in lower "muddy places".

Feb 6, 2014 at 6:33 PM | Unregistered CommenterBlack Dog

There seem to be a lot of people making a good living from the Great Delusion.

Feb 6, 2014 at 7:18 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Perfect, Josh, perfect.

What is great fun is that they are all somewhat uncertain and, on examination, they are uncertain as to what they are uncertain about.

.9

Feb 6, 2014 at 9:36 PM | Unregistered CommenterJay Currie

Superb - on so many levels. Thanks for your efforts.

Feb 6, 2014 at 10:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterJoe Public

There is no scroll bar on the pop-up (Firefox).

Feb 6, 2014 at 11:04 PM | Unregistered CommenterEric Gisin

If that is really what they said, we could be moving into the endgame.
If climate sensitivity is 0.9ºC then all CO2 emissions targets and strategies can be abandoned with immediate effect, and the entire green movement can pack its bags and try to focus on real issues instead.

Feb 6, 2014 at 11:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterDavid S

No amplification or scrolling on firefox.

Feb 7, 2014 at 12:49 AM | Unregistered CommenterRightwinggit

"at least" 0.9 is about the estimate of the effect of CO2 alone as a greenhouse gas--actually often cited as 1.0 or 1.1 degree C per doubling. This doesn't cause problems, so an additional 2C is added due to increased water vapor from increased evaporation at the higher temps. In other words, this is not much less than the lower limit of 1.5 adopted by all IPCC documents. What counts is the best estimate, which was always 3 dating from the 1979 National Academy of Sciences document, which itself was a compromise between Hansen's 4 and someone else's 2. Then they threw in an uncertainty of 1.5 to get their range from 1.5-4.5.

So it's a little early to celebrate. (However, maybe it is the beginning of the end, or at least the end of the beginning. Let us fervently hope.)

Feb 7, 2014 at 1:20 AM | Unregistered CommenterLance Wallace

The best of the lot: "I'm getting a signal I can't detect."

Feb 7, 2014 at 1:22 AM | Unregistered CommenterBrute

Lance Wallace: The other models (besides those from the Hansen group) considered by the Charney panel in 1979, were from Syukuro Manabe and colleagues at NOAA. E.g., this paper.

Feb 7, 2014 at 3:24 AM | Registered CommenterHaroldW

95 percent certain

Soundbite Science

eight out of ten cats

Shouty Statistics

Yeah very catchy.

Feb 7, 2014 at 7:43 AM | Unregistered Commenterjamspid

So it's a little early to celebrate. (However, maybe it is the beginning of the end, or at least the end of the beginning. Let us fervently hope.) Feb 7, 2014 at 1:20 AM | Unregistered Commenter Lance Wallace

Sadly, after reading through this last night (and I don't recommend it) we have a hell of a way to go before we can think about celebrating.

Apparently the BBC should not ask anyone except "professional climate modellers working in the field" to discuss any aspect of climate models. Hats off to Barry Woods and Foxgoose and Shub for their efforts in the comments.

Feb 7, 2014 at 8:38 AM | Registered Commenterlapogus

Firefox users, try this:

http://www.bishop-hill.net/storage/WRG1_AR5_cartoon_notes_scr.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1391709059924

Feb 7, 2014 at 9:10 AM | Unregistered Commentersteveta_uk

There is no scroll bar on the pop-up (Firefox).
Feb 6, 2014 at 11:04 PM | Eric Gisin


Try using the up-down-sideways keys. It works on my machine.

Feb 7, 2014 at 9:17 AM | Unregistered CommenterAllan M

or just use the cursor keys? works for me and amplification.

Feb 7, 2014 at 9:18 AM | Registered Commenterlapogus

or just use the cursor keys? works for me and amplification.
Feb 7, 2014 at 9:18 AM | lapogus

Oh, that's what they're called. Yes, it comes back to me now. I must have even less brain than the ecclesiastical uncle claims.

Feb 7, 2014 at 9:43 AM | Unregistered CommenterAllan M

So with what confidence do they predict natural climate variation, which gives them 95% confidence of the occurrence of unnatural variation in the temperature records?

Feb 7, 2014 at 11:08 AM | Unregistered CommenterEForster

Love the Uncertainty Monster - its expression is JUST perfect...

Feb 7, 2014 at 12:41 PM | Unregistered CommenterSherlock1

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