Bishop Hill Their lordships bestir themselves
Dec 9, 2014 Climate: Parliament The House of Lords Science and Technology Committee were taking evidence on the subject of the resilience of the electricity grid, hearing from Kevin Anderson among others.
Some of the exchanges seemed rather significant to me.
At around 10:44 Anderson suggested that future temperature rises could increase demand for airconditioning, producing a doubling of the load on the grid. Demand from electric cars could produce a similar increase and demand for heat would produce the same increase again.
This was all heard in respectful silence by their lordships, but then at 11:00 Matt Ridley asked a simple question that seemed to launch something of a rebellion by the committee, who did the absolutely unthinkable and started challenging the good professor. Who didn't seem to like it.
I can't remember such a hostile reception for a green in Parliament before.
Reader Comments (82)
" ... Anderson suggested that future temperature rises could increase demand for airconditioning, producing a doubling of the load on the grid."
Absolute bollox.
1. Warming would increase power demand, but that'd be during 'warm' months when peak load is well below winter peak demand, so wouldn't increase the peak.
2. Air conditioning load is only a small proportion of all other power uses, so could never ever 'double' summer demand.
Sorry, who was challenging who? Was the committee challenging Ridley or the other bloke?
Regards
Mailman
And much of the increased demand due to A/C would be picked up by solar (which only works when it's sunny...). HOWEVER, if the complete transformation of transport and heating the greens want ever happened, then grid demand would more than double. IIRC the "Zero Carbon 2030" (or whatever it's called) project accepted that peak demand could be over 120 GW...
I found it very depressing to watch our senior politicians trying to struggle with all the alarmism, exaggeration, lies and speculation that they have been fed by green activists over many years.
The flimsy nature of Anderson's evidence was quite shocking.
I'm trying to guess how Anderson arrived at the figure of 350 TWh/year extra for air conditioning. [If I've understood him correctly.] From a random website (thank you Mr Google), the sensitivity is about 0.5 kWh/day/degF/home. Anderson mentioned a scenario with a 4 K global increase in temperature (by 2050 !?) and said the UK would be about the global average, so allow a little more, 8 deg F increase. Say 100 days per year -- surely winter is not going to be requiring air conditioning. Allow for 25 million households in the UK. Total comes to 10 TWh/year. Not the same order of magnitude as what Anderson claimed.
Any other guesses as to how he arrived at the 350 TWh/year?
Nobody would mind a bit of natural warmth here (UK) in winter. Air conditioners in my experience (M. East) are about cooling, yes. More importantly, they are about reducing humidity significantly. So its likely fans first and a global scare about high humidity next...must start lobbying!
Shocking weasel words.
At once, it is claimed the 'experts' know enough and should be listened to, and, that no specific event cannot be linked to climate change, and, that a given weather event of significance can be linked to climate change after it has occurred.
Again, a recurring question: Why do climate scientists and activists handle dissent, questioning or criticism so poorly?
Why did Kevin Anderson have to resort to argument by authority to answer the questions posed by the speaker after Ridley?
The response to any 'attack' - in this case a mere verbal questioning - speaks to the state of readiness, anticipation and forethought. Anderson's defensive response shows he was not ready. The temperature is not going up - no amount of berating "IPCC, IPCC" is going to change that.
But then again the above is logic for people who survive by their wits; the rules are different for those who survive by their bluster.
No wonder the Apes are going to take over ;)
We have lost it.
" ... Anderson suggested that future temperature rises could increase demand for airconditioning, producing a doubling of the load on the grid."
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A/C will never be required in the UK.
I spend a lot of time in Southern Spain. I have A/C in all roomes except kitchem and bathrooms. Southern Spain is at least 10degC hotter than the UK, probably more like 14degC, and I have only used the A/C for a few hours a few times this year, relying instead on ceiling fans.
The summer has not been exceptionally hot, but many nights have been above 26degC at 2am in the early hours of the morning so far hotter than the UK and A/C has not been a necessity, although at times rather nice.
These people live in fantasy land. If the UK were to warm by 2 deg C it would be a God send. Scotland would become more like the north Midlands, the Midlands more like the South West. the South East more like the Channel Isles and the Channel Isles more like Britanny. What is there to like about that?
Kevin Anderson sems to be ignorant of climate science. His answers are just bizarre.
We have the same flawed arguments about the appeal to authority that most people use when they have no real answer. He says we should believe the "experts" i.e. the pretend Nobel Laureates, there really is not hope for him.
I was going to count the number of times he uses the words, might, maybe, could be, etc. but since he did it so often I stopped.
It was surprising that even the supporters of AGW in the Lords committee were somewhat cynical of Kevin Anderson and the area he was "elaborating".
The silly cancer analogy again. How boring.
Air conditioning? I have never to the best of my knowledge been in a house with air conditioning in the UK.
It's an amazing spectacle to see apparently educated people discussing total nonsense in all seriousness.
While Anderson was bloviating on, I had the thought that the 'House of Lords Science and Technology Committee' could influence presenters to stick to the truth, be more respectful and less condescending.
Have a large pot of tar simmering within sight and a large bag of feathers in front of the presenters.
The air con con comes from "The Jewel in the Crown"
Impacts on the UK energy industry
My bold
"What have we done?" Yes, just what have you done!
Whose the bloke who looks like a pimp from the Sopranos?
And who is the guy with the hand gestures?
I didn't get the link to the hearing, so please tell me "What did Ridley ask?"
Ridley politely asked why we should assume the temperature will rise 3 degrees over the next 35 years if the temperature had only risen half a degree over the last 35 years.
Mayhem ensues...
James
Jimbrock - not verbatim but along the following lines:-
It had been stated that we should expect a 3 to 4 deg C warming over the next 35 years.
Ridley simply asked what about the last 35 years when we have only seen a 0.5c warming, why the sudden jump?
I do actually think that A/C will become more prevalent in the UK, or at least the desire for it will do so. Not because of any changes in climate but for the same reason outhouses are now a thing of the past. Luxuries become comforts, comforts become necessities. Over generations our expectations are that we will earn more than our parents and our childrens' childhoods will be discernibly better than ours were.
It's a feature of our society that life will improve, things are expected to get better than they were, not worse or even stay the same. Not having a single restless night in your bed on a hot, humid summer night (we do have them occasionally) is an expectation that will eventually be a no-brainer.
Why should a scientific discipline that produces no useful output, other than scary prognostication, be allowed so close to the beating heart of industrial civilization, for no reason other than that its prognostications are scary?
If this is how the Lords fall so easily for guff and nonsense on this issue it's no wonder they are so easily hoodwinked into passing other legislation much to the detriment of the UK. Utterly useless buffoons. They don't scrutinise laws they are blinded by the "experts" and do exactly what they are told.
It was Anderson's big day.
And he blew it.
Simon Hopkinson
"I do actually think that A/C will become more prevalent in the UK,...."
I am quite sure you are correct, but can you foresee a take up large enough to result in "an expected shift in peak power demand to the summer"?
@ Simon H
"Luxuries become comforts, comforts become necessities. Over generations our expectations are that we will earn more than our parents and our childrens' childhoods will be discernibly better than ours were."
I rather suspect there is faint hope of that. If we continue with the current form of Social Democracy that is prevalent throughout the Developed World future generations will find, as is the current new generation, that expectations will have to be of the pay more, get less variety. For some things will improve but not for the majority. If GDP were properly calculated (including government spending as the negative it actually is) we would find we are growing poorer not richer.
Commentershub: "Again, a recurring question: Why do climate scientists and activists handle dissent, questioning or criticism so poorly?"
The simple answer is that they've never had any serious opposition. A few of us like Andrew, myself, etc. have been up against 10s of thousands of these greenblobbyists and as you can imagine, it's been a holding action with us so out-numbered that they've literally been able to get away with the most outrageous lie of all: that we are oil-funded lobbyists rolling in money. The reality is that as far as I am aware none of us sceptics have had any oil money, whereas e.g. the biggest contributors to UK wind lobbyists were oil companies and the academics have a slush fund paid for by oil money.
So the greenblob have never had to face serious opposition, but I think that is their Achilles Heel because they've grown fat and arrogant with such easy opposition and now they are easy prey when the politicians and press finally start taking them to task.
Excellent question by Ridley!
If only he would ask equally incisive questions about all the balderdash and bloggerel his coulmns evoke.
What struck me is that Anderson used the " argument from authority" against a group who have always believed themselves to BE the authority - oh dear, spectacularly bad persuasion technique .Classic own goal.
When he subsequently proclaimed that in 2050 the UK would have the climate of Dubai I switched off. But hey, perhaps we do have a chance for the 2052 world cup!"
I can imagine A/C becoming more common in the UK, possibly even prevelant
but doubling the demand from present day levels ?
where did those numbers even come from ??
Most entertaining for political tragics like me.
What an idiot Anderson is, telling a Parliamentary committee that their "opinions" don't matter, because science! The first rule of appearing before any Parliamentary committee is that, whatever your private views about them are, you treat them with respect - even grovelling deference never goes astray. First, they are politicians with huge egos. Second, unlike you, they are lawmakers in a democracy. Talk about shooting yourself in both feet with an AK40. That's when they really got cranky.
I loved the old Colonial buffer who rabbitted on about his experiences is "Malaya" 50 years ago. I didn't think his kind still existed. :)
As for the suggestion that grid capacity would have to be doubled because of domestic aircon, absolute cobblers. Domestic aircon is quite common in Australia, where it is a lot more than 3-4C hotter than the UK on average, and it certainly does not use anything like that proportion of grid capacity. Where I live more than half of the houses have it. In fact, modern split systems such as mine are very efficient and have a negligible effect on my bills.
And boy, Anderson really couldn't help himself about how things like policy and legislative measures could be used to supress energy demand. And what about his mind-boggling statement that the price of energy doesn't matter, just the price of "services." What an idiotic thing to say - in other words, it is OK to forego the benefits of efficiency gains by countervailing them with higher energy prices. That, and his throwaway comment about economists being wedded to high discount rates, so that nothing expensive ever gets done - breathtakingly stupid - and again designed to piss off a few more Committee members who might be economists.
I watched it all and I call for a vote of no confidence in that committee. What a waste of time. The 3 to 4 degree rise in 35 years is not supported by any rational person on either side of the great divide. Ridley quite rightly picked up on it but there was no come back on the authority of experts bollox.
Unimpressed. Going to sulk a bit.
Air Conditioning:
A truly wonderful invention. Gets used maybe 3 days a year at 52 North. Comes with free air sorce heat pump that has transformed my little hovel. 3.5kW out for 1.5kW in. So now I am much warmer for much less electricity used.
I do wish that these greenies and politicos would stop pretending that we can plan the weather. And "nobody cares about the price of energy" - WTF
Bring on the Tumbrils, thats wot I sez. Grrrr...
Good stuff, johanna. Anderson is indeed something. He is clearly exulting in his 'climate crisis'. And why wouldn't he? A harmless, highly-strung busybody in ordinary times, and here he is being invited to the House of Lords! The unscholarly nature of his demeanour and his 'evidence' are further blows to the title of 'professor', but I think it is already down in the pecking order, somewhere amongst 'journalists', 'used car salesmen', and 'double-glazing/renewable energy executives'. Surely their lords and ladyships cannot fail to have noticed that. I imagine a few sighs over the sherry afterwards.
Anderson kept repeating the 'more energy in the system' mantra based on his simplistic view that CO2 is the climate control knob. No-one informed enough to raise the issue of the energy gradient which has major implications for the extreme weather bollox, let alone to ask which of the 40 odd explanations for the missing energy was the right one.
Plenty of climate change knobs on show.
Still sulking.
H20, that would have been inappropriate. It wasn't the subject of the Inquiry - it's about the resilience of the UK grid.
You have to realise that Parliamentary committee hearings are a highly stylised dance. The Chair would not allow (quite rightly) diversions into things like debates about the competing theories of climate.
Besides, with Anderson scoring so many own goals, it would be foolish to interrupt him!
"Smart meters and intermittent supply" - oh goody, sounds great.
In all, their deliberations brought to mind the good old Soviet Union planning agricultural production.
johanna
pouting now!
I assume that this is the same Prof. Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre who promoted climate totalitarianism at a conference twelve months ago. All under the guise of being a "climate expert" and funded by future generations of British taxpayers.
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/radical-emission-reduction-conference-10-11-december-2013-register-here
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/12/13/a-sudden-realisation.html
http://manicbeancounter.com/2013/12/14/tyndall-centres-new-totalitarianism/
Whose the bloke who looks like a pimp from the Sopranos?
Dec 9, 2014 at 7:08 PM cheshirered
Matthew Bell, Chief Executive of Committee on Climate Change
I do actually think that A/C will become more prevalent in the UK, or at least the desire for it will do so. Not because of any changes in climate but for the same reason outhouses are now a thing of the past. Luxuries become comforts, comforts become necessities. Over generations our expectations are that we will earn more than our parents and our childrens' childhoods will be discernibly better than ours were
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The desire for it, possibly, but only as a status symbol, since in practice there will rarely ever be a need to use it, and domestic A/C has a number of draw backs.
From a practical perspective, UK housing is less than ideal for conventional domestic A/C since the majority of the housing stock is semis or terreaced properties with restricted outside walls on whicb to conveniently place the A/C units.
As I said in my previous post, I spend much time in Southern Spain, and I rarely use the A/C. This is because A/C makes the air very dry. It becomes unpleasant to breath, and although the A/C has movable vents, if you sit close to it, you end up getting a stiff neck, or shoulder.
My neighbour has a heat pump and underfloor heating. In the winter the air pump heats the floors and hence the house, whereas,.in the summer, the haet pump circulates very cold water cooling the floors and the house. That is far more pleasant compared to conventiobnal A/C. But of course you need tiled floors for it to work efficiently since wooden floors or carpets would insulate.
Cheers Martin A.
Chief Exec' of CCC - nice and neutral, then.
Richard Verney, in very dry climates evaporative aircon solves the humidity problem.
You sound to me like one of those people who just doesn't like it! We get them here too, people who say it's not needed and they're happy with a fan or opening the windows.
Well, everybody's metabolism is different, and heat makes me miserable. 23C is about my limit. But my sister doesn't even feel comfortably warm until it's about 25C, and she doesn't much mind anything up to 35C.
The point is, people should be allowed to choose.
There is no problem with installing a split system in a terrace or semi, as long as there is an outside bit of ground about 1m high and 50cm deep to place the inverter. Indeed, most new townhouses and terraces being built in Australia have them as part of the new build. They are nothing like the old "box in the window" models - the ducts run from the single inverter into whatever rooms you want them to. In flats, people put the inverter on their balcony.
The video is on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJ0JyGMA-ak&feature=youtu.be&t=21m2s
YouTube has a number of advantages over SilverLight - e.g. the UK taxpayer is not forking money over to Microsoft for something that is available for no cash outlay, YouTube it tends to work (unlike SilverLight), and one can specify where the video should start, as in the link above. No doubt there are downsides too - e.g. GCHQ cannot track the people watching the video as easily.
Couple of things or three:
i. as shub has alluded to - why such a heated display of defensive umbrage? Shurely mishter?!....... if he is so cock sure of his prognostications and declaiming to the proles and by extension.... poor an' 'umble serfs so honoured that he be in our presence an' all......By all the Gods with all that vast well of knowledge and experience to summon when under fire - from kiddies pop guns - should he not have been lobbing them all back with the swagger and an insouciant smirk akin to the likes of Brad Pitt in the role - playing Roger Federer? I mean....... what?
ii.
link
Petrochemical industry, he blows his trumpet and impervious - with no sense of irony I'm sure.
iii. OK said Kev' alack and watch out for UK T's rising by 4° C and everyone will install a/c and what with all those useless electric cars: just think about the extra pressure on the grid so says Kevin.
But did no one think to ask him - "Hmm by 2050 [whatevah], UK energy supply will have induced an economic collapse, the destruction of all British industry and manufacturing, thanks in whole part to the dearth of energy supply due to the utter failure of renewable energy policy.... CCA [to which Kev acted as a consultant - no less]. Thus, all the people will be back on the land - any road up!!"
Get back to Manchester Kev' where you can patronize and bamboozle a gullible and captive audience - to your hearts content.
Dec 9, 2014 at 11:32 PM | richard verney
If your cooling causes "very dry" air, I'd suggest the A/C is mis-sized. The usual complaint is almost invariably chilled air that is too damp (under-sized, most likely). Likewise, if the vents blow directly on you, then they were poorly installed.
While heated floors are nice, if often insufficient and requires separate humidifiers, chilled flooring is downright uncomfortable due to the cooled air pooling at your feet. Further, those chilled floors become wet when the dew point is above the floor's temp. Here in Dallas, that would be damned near every time you'd run the A/C.
Any compressor unit up to 60,000 BTU/hr capacity will set easily on a pad one meter square. If you want a split unit, there are stackable compressors that require no larger a pad.
Perhaps it's the eighty or so years of institutional experience with central air and heating that makes the difference in the user comfort we enjoy in Texas. Do keep in mind that we llive in what is considered a fairly harsh environment; with moist summer air from the Gulf heated by high temps (100℉, give or take for weeks at a time) blowing from the Sonoran desert of Mexico on one hand to taking a direct hit from Canadian/Polar cold fronts that can drop the temps from the high eighties to the twenties iin a few hours. We simply switch the thermostat from cool to heat. Done and done.
I live in South Carolina, USA. IIRC around 1980 a heatwave hit London (temperatures hit 90 degrees F) I remember being shocked at news reports that The Queen's Rolls Royce lacked air conditioning.
"I do actually think that A/C will become more prevalent in the UK, or at least the desire for it will do so. Not because of any changes in climate but for the same reason outhouses are now a thing of the past." --Simon Hopkinson
Judging from the observed course of UK deterioration during the past 20 years, it appears that outhouses are now also a thing of the future. Possibly covered in a footnote to Agenda 21?
Anderson's scenarios are idiotic and his patronizing and condescending shtick is nauseating. The notion that cooling will create a similar level of demand for electricity as the heating season in the next 50 years is preposterous even if AC "catches" on in the UK. That kind of arithmetic might work in Florida or Arizona, but not in most of the rest of the US, never mind the UK.
Can somebody post links to this guy's papers? It all smells like a push for increased centralized control of how we live our lives.