Monday
Sep302013
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill What should scientists tell the public?
Sep 30, 2013 Climate: Models Climate: Oceans Climate: Surface In particular, what should they tell the public about what is not understood? Richard Allan, of Reading University, clearly feels that the answer is "as little as possible". So in this video, about ocean heat content and the pause, we are given to believe that a network of ocean-going bouys has been measuring a vast warming, the insinuation being that this explains the pause. Hands are (metaphorically) waved furiously and "natural cycles" frantically invoked. There is a great deal of spin, and very little light.
And all paid for by you.
Reader Comments (80)
@3x2: the issue is the albedo of clouds with and without the extra aerosol loading from Asian coal fired power stations etc.
The aerosols reduce droplet coarsening kinetics and decrease albedo. This is opposite what Climate Alchemy claims but that is because they have since 1974 used Sagan's aerosol optical physics to claim that pollution causes cooling.
In reality the reverse is the case I and a US cloud physicist G L Stephens agree on this but neither oof us has been able to publish it in an 'acceptable' journal because it is heresy.
The fact is that Pacific OHC has increased, as expected, whersd N. Atlantic OHC has been falling.
Philip Bratby and others.
You are getting it wrong, you should take a leaf out of the alarmists textbook and use a smaller unit of measurement, if you use litres instead of cubic kilometres you get really scary big number!
Sep 30, 2013 at 2:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterDisko Troop
"In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself by two hundred and forty-two miles. Therefore… in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period the Lower Mississippi River was upward of one million three hundred thousand miles long… seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long… There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such trifling investment of fact.
Mark Twain
Stuck record,
I think there's a 90 percent probability that the missing heat will be found down the back of a giant settee on the ocean bed. That's where all the missing stuff ends up in my house.
You ask "What should scientists tell the public?" Simple answer, the truth as dictated by the facts, not some "truth" as defined by the Universal Church of Climate Science™.
Sep 30, 2013 at 2:31 PM | SayNoToFearmongers
Hey, I use to work in the addon prefab just to the left of your linked image. Those H-Block buildings were actually not a bad place to work, with plenty of light coming in. Back to the original post, Rich was about 2-3 years later than me.
They cannot model clouds because they do not understand clouds but no big deal clouds cannot possibly have any effect on climate.
The IPCC admit that they have a poor understanding of clouds and their effects. In other words they can not model albedo. So how the hell do they know if the "missing heat" is in the deep oceans or in deep space? Having skimmed the nonsense in the radiative forcing section of AR5 the notion that any heat went missing in the first place is not remotely credible.
Body language says it all.
Sep 30, 2013 at 4:29 PM | HaroldW
The oceans get ~63mW/m² through the mantle:
http://www.mantleplumes.org/WebDocuments/Hofmeister2005.pdf See Table 2 p170
If your calculations are correct then they should be boiling after being heated from below for 550,000 years.
Obviously, the oceans have ways of dealing with the heat from below that don't require the vast proportion of their volume to rise above a few °C.
we expect this heat to come back in a few decade....expect or hope?
Rob Burton,
I remember them very well - mine was nearby. Much more atmospheric than the newbuilds with their cell block offices, and plenty of light from the acreages of single glazing (obviously designed to help generate plant food in winter). But probably a bit of an embarrassment to those on the make. And the Met Department was, entirely reasonably, lower on the pecking order than Fine Art back then.
Roy Spencer has a post on the difficulties of modelling clouds and water vapour
http://www.drroyspencer.com
Brownedoff (Sep 30, 2013 at 4:06 PM)
Many thanks for the correction. You've spared me much embarrassment.
Dodgy Geezer, quoting Feynman:
Absolutely. The evidence and understanding that goes into the AR5 WG1 conclusions are laid out in the chapters of the report, which themselves reference the scientific literature upon which they are based.
Therefore, readers are indeed given the information that helps them judge the value of the contribution.
Man selling carpets tells us people need more carpets .
Meanwhile remind me what actual empirical measurements, not models , there are of deep ocean temperatures?
Why did the heat go into the air before 2000-ish, but into the deep ocean after that? Was it related to the millenium bug problem? Or do they just take turns? Will anything else get a go in time for the next assessment?
igsy
You got it !
The models failed coz of the millennium bug. I suspect some of them were also affected by the bird flu that wiped out half of Scotland, or was that swine flu ? Same message. You are going to die and it will cost you money.
'In summary, the idea is to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgement in one particular direction or another.'Dodgy Geeze
Normally and morally and professional your right , but once you 'saving the planet ' all bets are off and the 'good lie ' becomes all powerful motivation , that is also helps your career is just a 'lucky' coincidence.
Sep 30, 2013 at 7:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterDolphinhead says:
"They cannot model clouds because they do not understand clouds but no big deal clouds cannot possibly have any effect on climate."
Reminds me of some Judy Collins' lyrics which I can just hear the IPCC A Capella Choir singing in the background:
"I've looked at clouds from both sides now
From up and down and still somehow
It's cloud's illusions I recall
I really don't know clouds at all"
Heat in the deep oceans where giant squid reside. Buy Garlic Mayonnaise Futures.
The WMO standard 30 year rate of warming shows a distinct 60 year cycle in the HadCRUT4 data set.
So far the peaks are +0.06C in 1880's, +0.16C in 1940's and +0.20C in 2000's so a larger increase between the first 2 peaks than the last 2?
Another interesting point is the sea surface peaks, +0.07C in 1880's, +0.16C in 1940's and +0.16C in 2000's. So no change in the last 2 peaks.
So it would appear that there was a greater increase in the rate of energy going into the sea surface between 1880 and 1940 than between 1940 and 2000?
I have no idea how this relates to OHC. Just appears to be counterintuitive to an increase of energy entering the ocean.
That Percy Shelley knew a thing or two about clouds - 173 years ago:
I am the daughter of Earth and Water,
And the nursling of the Sky;
I pass through the pores of the ocean and shores;
I change, but I cannot die.
For after the rain when with never a stain
The pavilion of Heaven is bare,
And the winds and sunbeams with their convex gleams
Build up the blue dome of air,
I silently laugh at my own cenotaph,
And out of the caverns of rain,
Like a child from the womb, like a ghost from the tomb,
I arise and unbuild it again.
http://www.web-books.com/Classics/Poetry/Anthology/Shelley/Cloud.htm
I have not-so-fond memories of my time as a head of department in a Comprehensive school in Reading, surrounded by students who, among the good kids, contained a violent minority of trainee Football hooligans. The school was led by senior staff who were mostly drawn from failed institutions in the City of London who had an enormous regard for their own limited abilities - the school's management was so top-heavy it couldn't function sensibly. What little contact I had with Reading university left me wondering if the inmates there had gained control of the asylum, The entire town had an air of the brief era of 19th century America known as the ' Wild West'.
When I returned to New Zealand, I was unsurprised to discover from a friend who had emigrated from Reading, where he grew up, that "Reading is the crime capital of the UK".
Stealing the idea from someone higher up, I propose Arsene Wenger as the next Chairman of the IPCC. Like Rajendra Pachauri he knows bugger all about the climate but he has integrity, honesty and is believed by people. I must admit a financial interest here (Yeo and Deben take note) since I have been a paid up member of Arsenal F.C. for some years now ^.^
Alexander K,
Nooo, surely not? I only had two cars and numerous stereos stolen when I was there. The corruption went on at many levels in the town - and Berkshire's infamous County Council (based in Reading, of course) was the *only* shire county administration abolished in the whole of England. We never did find out the real reason - closing ranks is first nature thereabouts.
"...you don't get a slow gradual rise, you get lumps and bumps in the temperature record..."
Then why aren't there any 'lumps and bumps' in the multi-model ensemble average?
The missing energy. Obvious innit. As the Earth gets warmer, it expands. If it expands , conservation of angular momentum would normally mean that the Earth day, (yeah, I know sidereal day) would get longer – cf spinning ice dancers . In order to keep the Earth day the same duration, the missing heat is converted to kinetic energy. As soon as the Earth shrinks again all that missing heat is going to suddenly reappear and we are toast. No? Well it is as good a theory has having heat lurking down in Davy Jones’s locker, cooking the angler fish. Mmmm, ready to eat monkfish. -
After thought.
Mark Knopfler should stick to his guitar. Although the Money For Nothing is appropriate.
Some great comments on this thread today. They lightened my mood. I had got that sinking feeling after watching the video, but (irrationally) only because I spent my youth in Reading and have fond memories. Nevertheless, Hector Pascal is right: it is a bit of a hole and doesn’t have much to recommend to a visitor.
In Allan’s defence he seemed to be rather nervous. I agree with John Silver and I think he was perfectly aware his purpose was to mislead, perhaps to avoid any awkward follow up questions, and to his credit he was uncomfortable with it. I might well be wrong though ...
AlecM: I am sure you are right in all you say but like others I struggle to understand any of it. You obviously have the confidence to convince. It’s just a question of presentation and an appreciation of what the listener takes for granted. I wonder if you have thought of studying Stanley Unwin’s technique. He was very good at getting a complicated message across.
Alex: Seriously, I am often in Stockholm these days and in the past have worked with people at KTH. They are all very approachable and I know my way around. I’m fairly sure I’ve never met him, but would it help if I look Claes up and asked for an informal summary of your collaboration? Or is it too early for that?
RayG: Isn’t that Joni Mitchell?
Alexander K: I hope you are not referring to West Reading. That big school on the Bath Road was OK in my day.
Dung: But with Arsene in charge there would never be any more Nobel Prizes.