Sunday
May262013
by 
Josh
Josh Significantly Met O££ice - Josh 223
May 26, 2013 Climate: MetOffice Climate: Models Josh
;)
Following Doug's extraordinary post this morning we imagine Julia Slingo, Met Office, offering an apology.
(Click the image for a larger version)
Updated text H/t Doug
Reader Comments (21)
Heheh,
and furthermore:
Heheheh.
Who knew?
I wouldn't be suprised to see Slingo made a dame; probably in Aladdin or Cinderella.
I suspect there is a greater statistically significant chance of Global Warming than of a Met Office apology.
The cartoon is premature. (And - sorry to say it - not very funny in any case.)
Shouldn't she be tendering somewhat more than an apology ?
Met Office -.Privatize it.
The human imagination is very powerful thing , such much so it can come up with ideas that can never have nor never can be. Has one thing is for sure Julia Slingo, Met Office, will never offering an apology on this . Its only once their gone that the MET may be able to start using honesty rather than face saving excuses when it comes to 'the cause '
For like 'the Team ' there professional stance and their personal standings rests on its very poor foundations .
Time Slingo was put on gardening leave, but given the rambling lecture she gave to the RHS last year she seems to know as little about gardening as she knows about statistics.
I'd frame that and send it to her. Surely some underling would have to open it first, and then the titters in the office will start.
That's a joke, I assume. If not, could you provide a reference?
During the talk, Professor Slingo discussed how the growing season has extended by a month or more in parts of the UK, largely due to milder temperatures in February and March. This exposes plants to a higher risk from frosts during cold spells. The trend towards milder temperatures also means there are fewer frost days to kill off pests and diseases. While there is no sign of any changes in annual rainfall in the UK, there has been a higher number of days with extreme or heavy rain which mirrors a global trend.
http://www.rhs.org.uk/News/Gardening-and-UK-weather
So she was not put on "gardening leave". Why say so in that case?
I have hypothesised that there is a debate going on within the upper levels of the Met Office, some committed to the AGW religion, others looking toward the future, when the whole thing has fallen apart and putting forward the line "we do science meeting the needs of our customers".
If and when there is a turnabout, Slingo will be thrown under a bus [ie given early retirement on lottery-win terms with an agreement to keep quiet - like BBC top management failures]. I had wondered if the "gardening leave" line meant that had already happened and I had missed something.
Martin A
I think what you missed was the word "Time".
As in "Time Slingo was put on gardening leave" means "It is time Slingo was put on gardening leave", not that it has already happened.
[Snip - venting]
MI5 thought they could buy off an Islamic terrorist with a mobile.Who promptly goes out with his accomplice and commits a grizzly murder in Woolwich.
Mid Staffordshire Health Authority has 1200 patient deaths on there hands so they have to quickly pay of their Chief Sir David Nicholson with a Million Pound Pension.
The Financial Services Authority finally abolished .No real surprise there.Took them long enough.
The Audit office announces that HS2 along with another 30 government flagship schemes are Financially Unobtainable.
UKIP threatening to grab safe Tory Seats
But fortunate Dave is happily enjoying his holiday.
Now the latest Government farce The Met Office "Stat Gate"
Martin
"The cartoon is premature"
I think cartoonists are allowed to speculate. The MO has been doing it for years.
I think what you missed was the word "Time".
Yes, I missed that key word.
This may interest you Phil Jones has his name on this -
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50425/abstract
Now there’s an interesting line or two from the abstract -
We have ignored all air temperature observations and instead inferred them from observations of barometric pressure, sea surface temperature, and sea-ice concentration using a physically-based data assimilation system called the 20th Century Reanalysis. This independent dataset reproduces both annual variations and centennial trends in the temperature datasets, demonstrating the robustness of previous conclusions regarding global warming.
Hey, lets all run-off and infer our data indirectly because all that temperature measurement error stuff plays hell with the theory.
The Met Office response to Doug Keenan's post is here.
Considering the "pause" over the last decade, in the light of Professor Slingo's statement.
Am I right in thinking that it is simply not possible to determine whether the global temperature is rising or falling in a statistically significant way, because we simply do not know which statistical model to apply?