Further to the last posting, and in particular the claim in the BBC article that the 2-4.5 range is largely unaffected by the Otto et al paper, here's my graph of ECS curves with the incorporation of the Otto et al results - both the full-range and the last-decade curves. These are shown in black. As previously, the other studies are coloured purple for satellite period estimates, green for instrumental, and blue for paleoestimates. The grey band is simultaneously the IPCC's preferred range and the range of the climate models.
As you will see, it is fairly clear that the Otto et al results slot in quite nicely alongside the other recent low-sensitivity findings, with most of the density outside the range of the models. The IPCC's preferred range looks increasingly untenable.