Bishop Hill Letter to the Times
Apr 10, 2013 Climate: MetOffice Climate: Surface Climate: WG2 I have a letter published in the Times. It's paywalled, so I can't see exactly what has appeared, but this is what I sent them.
Lord Hunt advises us that the recent cold snowy weather is “consistent with” our expectations of climate change, and that in the UK “the trend is likely to be towards colder winters” (article, 2 April 2013). This is a surprising claim. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in its last report that “The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase…in Northern Europe” and that the “duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease in at least most of Europe”. Sir John Houghton, Lord Hunt’s predecessor at the Met Office, has declared that “The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming”. If we are to expect more cold and less cold and more snow and less snow, one is left wondering what kind of weather is “not consistent” with manmade climate change.
Bishop Hill
Here's what they published:
Sir, Lord Hunt of Chesterton says that the cold weather is consistent with our expectations of climate change, and that in the UK the trend is likely to be towards colder winters (Apr 2).
This is a surprising claim. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in its last report that the lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase in Northern Europe and that the duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease, at least in most of Europe. Sir John Houghton, Lord Hunt’s predecessor at the Met Office, has declared that we will get less snow, “in line with what we expect from global warming”.
If we are to expect more cold and less cold and more snow and less snow, one is left wondering what kind of weather is “not consistent” with man-made climate change.
Reader Comments (66)
OK thanks Tide
Anyone told Dellingpole yet.Also I like Toby Young and Brendan O Neill.
Im trying to start a Facebook ,Twitter Trend get all the Hoorays and the Yuppies to go out in streets with Campagne and have a Reverse Maggie Thatcher Celebration Party to Celebrate her Acheivements.Wind up the Guardian SWP ,Class War ,Lefties.Spark a wave of post Maggie 80s Nostalgia.
My Mum and oldest brother loved Maggie rest of the family couldnt stand her.
I'm glad I didn't pay my £1.99. The thought of effectively paying for the Geriatric Geoffrey (Lean) and Loopy Louise (Gray) pension fund was beginning to stick in my throat.
I only buy the print edition nowadays to read on the train and to do the crossword. But at least its a choice each time. Regular subs ain't.
@Latimer Alder "its a choice each time. Regular subs ain't". Close, but no cigar (').
I think that was a fine effort Andrew, the use of an understated and subtle critique with teasing irony - produces a lingering and indeed a powerful afterthought.
Well done, well said Sir.
I'd have been a little more direct, ah but then again - I've not had too many letters published in the 'Thunderer'.
;~)
It almost seems as if there is a committee somewhere that has been tasked with dreaming up all possible consequences of climate change - From the Daily Mail:
Scientists from East Anglia and Reading universities have analysed supercomputer simulations of the atmospheric jet stream over the North Atlantic and claim climate change will increase air turbulence.
They found the chances of hitting significant turbulence will rise by 40 to 170 per cent by 2050, with the likeliest outcome being a doubling of the airspace containing significant turbulence at any time
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2306056/London-New-York-flights-bumpier-future-thanks-climate-change.html
ITV's evenning news carried an article on arctic warming and the idea that increasing loss of ice is causing the jet stream to move a little further south bringing colder winters to the UK and Northern Europe. Slingo even gave a short interview but she merely called for further investigation to see what is happening.
A Russian Scientist was interviewed. He agreed that the Arctic ice is less extensive than in the recent past but thought that it was all part of a natural cycle of warming and cooling. I guess a few years ago that interview would have ended up on the floor of the editor's suite.
Sorry Latimer, it's just that I don't understand why people can't get how to use the possessive "its" correctly, how to spell "lose" or know that the past tense of "lead" is "led", among dozens of other barbarisms. To say "if I would have" rather than "if I had" I reluctantly excuse despite the subjunctive featuring largely in the grammar of other european languages. As for the use of "that" rather than "who" I am frankly appalled by such lack of politesse. Though I'm not particularly well-educated myself (old-school perhaps) I am honestly dispirited by the relentless tide of egregious mistakes which have sadly become a hallmark of this blog's accepted standard of contribution.
lol at the linguistic error...
"Sorry Latimer, it's just that I don't understand why people can't get how to use the possessive "its" correctly,"
as a possessive, it should be spelt it's in all cases, regardless of the "rule" that says that "it's" means "it is".
Re: Hans v.Storch's comment: "We noticed that something strange had happened, and then an explanation was constructed. Other explanations would also be possible."
Post hoc ergo proper crock.
[I admit that the above sounds too negative; we progress in understanding by refining our theories to account for unexpected events. But there are lots of proposed explanations, and significantly fewer correct ones. Especially when the system is as complex, and with so many interacting "parts", as planetary climate. As von Storch implied, one only gains confidence in a scientific model after multiple successful predictions. Any theory which is entirely post hoc, can't be considered more than an educated guess.]
Diogenes....would that be the possessive it's like her's, our's, your's, their's....??
Grammatically-challenged of Surrey
Just seen this for the first time, Andrew. Corking letter, made even better in my view by the Times subs.
Your persistence is appreciated by many. I'm sure you know this but thank you nonetheless.
...as a possessive, it should be spelt it's in all cases, regardless of the "rule" that says that "it's" means "it is".
Apr 10, 2013 at 9:30 PM diogenes
You are joking. Right?
If you are not, please consult any book on English grammar. Urgently.
Stick to what you knwo, alleagra.
@diogenes
You're making the mistake of thinking logic and grammar go hand in hand. ;)
'If we are to expect more cold and less cold and more snow and less snow, one is left wondering what kind of weather is “not consistent” with man-made climate change.'
And one is tempted to conclude that
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/05/burger-king-global-warming-us