Winter jolly

The saga of the stricken Antarctic expedition continues to fascinate and intrigue. The news overnight is that all the passengers are to be evacuated by helicopter, leaving only the crew on board.

Meanwhile, Richard Tol has been noting the backgrounds of some of the researchers on board:

Ben Fisk

Ben is a PhD candidate at the Centre for Rural Emergency Medicine, Deakin University, researching rural and urban differences in traumatic brain injury outcomes.

James MacDiarmid

James trained as a Primary school teacher, with a Masters degree in Educational Leadership. He is currently completing his doctorate in educational sciences with a primary focus on the early years of both pre-school and primary students.

And so on. To be fair, there are some genuine climate scientists on board too, but with many of their fellow travellers clearly occupying the "free holiday" category the impression you get is of a carbon guzzling boondoggle rather than a research trip.

Comments

[not banned yet]

Don't forget it is summer in The Antarctic - "Summer Folly" perhaps?

[splitpin]

Johanna, where did you find the Ben Maddison is a Marxist?

Dec 31, 2013 at 12:10 PM Chandra

Do non-Marxists present papers at conferences on "Rethinking Marxism"?

[Roy]

Mike Jackson said:

... his forthcoming book Class and Colonialism in Antarctic exploration 1750-1920

Please tell me I'm dreaming!

He is probably already working on his next book. If anyone wants to start a competition to guess the title, my entry would be:

Racism, Sexism and Homophobia in Antarctic exploration 1750-1920.

[Ruth Dixon]

From the actual blurb of Ben Maddison's book (expertly paraphrased by omnologos above):

Sailers [sic], sealers, whalers, cooks, mechanics, engineers, stokers and radio operators were all necessary in bringing the upperclass 'hero explorers' to the continent and supporting their expeditions. Likewise, resources obtained from local populations in southern Africa, Australasia, the Pacific and South America were vital to their success.

Yup, that about sums it up...

[James Evans]

omnologos,

"Still no indication anybody on board or among their cheering crowd has any understanding of how dangerous their situation truly is. It's as if the Italian Job's final-scene bus were populated by a still-celebrating crowd."

You might have a point:

"A special song and dance routine is being written, choreographed and rehearsed for the dawn of 2014."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25557017

[Schrodinger's Cat]

The BBC seems to have forgotten to mention any climate science connection in its latest website report on the stranded vessel.

[tomo]

12:33 PM omnologos

OK, OK, - but I am angry - and I am no stranger to the Arctic - these fools are both seriously inconveniencing other people and putting them in harms way - make no mistake about that.

A trip to either pole is not something to be undertaken lightly - from where I'm sat this looks like an ill conceived self indulgent jolly that has been poorly executed and their blatherings from on board are exceedingly tiresome.

It presently looks as if it might turn serious - FFS - common sense could have told them that some time back - and informed their operational decisions.

They will get out I think - but as Johanna said there will be (already are?) considerable attempts at self justification and victimhood.

Given what they're putting others through - wishing some small discomfort on them is trivial. They willfully put themselves in this situation and there is, in some quarters - the germ of of a ploy to portray them as heroes - which is an inversion I can't stomach.

[James Evans]

Ship's doctor Andrew Peacock said the passengers were frustrated but "resigned to keep waiting" and trying to keep their spirits high, with a New Year party planned in the ship's bar.
"(We're) passing the time reading, preparing for a possible helicopter evacuation, continuing ocean studies dropping probes beneath the ice, (watching) movies in the auditorium and working on a new song for New Year's Eve celebrations, which will be a nice dinner and time at the bar," Peacock told AFP.
"We know this is a serious event and we are inconveniencing others. We are not morose or upset, just frustrated and we have no option but to settle in and keep morale high."
The ship is stocked with two weeks' worth of fresh food and another fortnight of dehydrated rations. But Peacock said drinks were running low, with "just enough alcohol left to celebrate" the arrival of 2014.
"We are preparing for evacuation to a dry ship so a few drinks seems reasonable, but we also have to be ready at a moment's notice for the helicopter arrival so staying sober is important," he said.
Peacock said passengers had been upset by speculation on social media that they were not on a "serious science-based" expedition or had been negligent in some way, which he said could "not be further from the truth".
"We were caught as we left to go north en route to home by a new breakout of ice dragged across to this area by strong southeasterly winds. This was a fairly rare event in this specific location," he said.
"The scientists and passengers are very unhappy about the way this has played out but we can't be expected to just sit and be sad or unhappy," he added, defending upbeat photo and video posts from the ship.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i5ZZJ7tiXcGFUHzHFyluxfHZlgqQ?docId=14c16fbc-19ce-4ab3-863d-92f624baa3a5

[Jake Haye]

The BBC seems to have forgotten to mention any climate science connection in its latest website report on the stranded vessel.
Dec 31, 2013 at 12:51 PM | Schrodinger's Cat

I first heard about the stranded vessel on the BBC (R4), but only learned of the climate science/activism connection when the story was covered on this blog.

[Chandra]

Splitpin, why shouldn't they? It says "Rethinking" after all. Are you referring to his chairing "Commodification: Theory and Practice", or to his paper "Working Class Responses to the Commodity Form in 1920s Australia". Come on, where does it say, or where does he say, he is a Marxist? I doubt he is shy about it if it is true.

[bullocky]

The seriousness of this Antarctic debacle in respect of Planet Earth cannot be overstated.

With the Akademik Shokalskiy stuck in thick climate-change-induced ice, the Doomsday Clock has swung past Midnight and into Extra Time!

[Breath of Fresh Air]

Addendum - the continued existence of the Guardian as a printed newspaper relies on public funding in the form of public sector ads. Without them, no Guardian. To all intents and purposes, the Guardian is also publicly funded. Eric Pickles said he was going to put an end to this, as all the ads are online anyway - and has done nothing about it. I wrote to him to ask why he had broken this promise, and got no reply. And politicians don;t understand the contempt we hold them in.

Dec 31, 2013 at 12:18 PM | Unregistered CommenterJeremy Poynton

Jeremy, you forgot to mention AutoTrader, or should that be Icebreaker Trader ;)

[Richard Tol]

@James
Well, I can't take very seriously researchers who study Iceland or Siberia but take a boat to Antarctica.

[tomo]

It would seem that rehearsals are underway for the New Year Song and Dance - Sea Ice Helicopter Conga anybody?

[Chandra]

Richard Tol are people not allowed to have interests outside their specialist area in your world?

[Justin Ert]

According to the Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531159/Antarctic-crew-build-ice-helipad-help-rescuers.html
Janet Rice - Australian Green Party select elect - is on board, but her live blogging unfortunately stops on the 26th whilst she plays scrable indoors:
http://www.janetrice.com.au/

[Richard Tol]

@Chandra
Of course they are. But if someone is presented as a "PhD student" on a "research expedition" you would expect them to be doing research that is related to their PhD. That is not the case for the majority of the "PhD students" on board.

[omnologos]

tomo - I can't wait myself to express my feelings but they only belong to a time AFTER everybody has been rescued.

[tomo]

omnologos

They'll get out - but it might well turn out a bit squeaky bum.

[Chandra]

Well I don't think that is a reason to think badly of them as researchers. Having a paramedic (Fisk) on board seems positive. Maybe the others paid for the passage. If I'd had the 8k starting price rubbing a hole in my pocket I would have been tempted...

[omnologos]

Just discovered: the Guardian's Alok Jha spent the days before the ice stopped the ship, by telling us how thin the ice was

_http://www.theguardian.com/science/antarctica-live/2013/dec/23/longest-drive-sea-ice-antarctica
_http://www.theguardian.com/science/antarctica-live/2013/dec/20/sea-ice-mawsons-huts-antarctica

a recent warm spell had melted lots of the snow cover on the fast ice, and the route across it was riddled with pools of water covered with thin, easily broken ice.

We spent the next hour splashing through pools of freshly melted snow on the surface of the sea ice

scientists drilled through the ice cover to find that it was actually only around 2m thick in most places

They found big ridges and patches of melted snow and ice along the route – a discovery that immediately put any plans to take large groups of passengers on hold.

"Large groups of passengers"? I wonder if they were expecting to find no ice at all, like Mawson, so that everybody would be allowed on land, tourists included.

Even the day before the incident, we were told how bad the warming would be for the penguin colonies

_http://www.theguardian.com/science/antarctica-live/2013/dec/24/the-penguins-of-cape-denison

“That has happened in a number of places around Antarctica,” says Wilson. “To some extent it's a natural process and that will happen from time to time at a number of colonies. But, with climate warming, the rate at which icebergs are calving off the ice edge is increasing so the number of times in which icebergs will cut off access to colonies is going to occur more frequently.”

Alok has also a predilection for repeating the words "fast ice", as if everybody knew what that were.

ps The journalist was included in the 7-strong driving expedition, obviously not for publicity purposes

pps does anybody know why they cannot use the Argos to reach the Chinese or Australian ships, having used them for an 80-mile journey the longest ever undertaken across sea ice in Antarctica?

ppps what were the conditions in Commonwealth Bay around Christmas 2011 and 2012?

[flaxdoctor]

Looking a bit hairy now - the Chinese icebreaker with the helicopter is now in need of rescue, so no airlift. A bigger icebreaker is now needed, maybe arriving from USA in a week or so. Brrr.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276

And the BBC still thinks this is happening in Asia, clearly.

[shub]

omnologos, the conditions around the Mertz glacier tongue area has been bad from 2010. The crew running the MV Akademik Shokalskiy knew about this. They wrote about it on their website:

n mid February 2010 a massive iceberg collided with the floating tongue of the Mertz Glacier, just west of Mawson’s Huts. The collision precipitated the calving of another massive iceberg called C28, measuring 78km long and 35 km wide. C28 is now grounded at the entrance to Commonwealth Bay. It provides both an obstacle to accessing Commonwealth Bay and a great opportunity for scientific study. Since 2010 it has not been possible to access Mawsons Huts by sea so there is some chance that we will also be stopped from accessing the huts. However we do have remote controlled drones and over-ice vehicles onboard our vessel to improve our chances of access. It is important that you aware that this is not a regular tourist voyage to Mawsons Huts. The heavy ice around these massive stranded icebergs does create a significant obstacle to our access to the huts. There is a real chance that we will not be able to get to the huts. We will not know the outcome until we are in position in Commonwealth Bay. If you need to be sure you will get to the huts then this is probably not the voyage for you. In other words the outcome is highly uncertain, although we are quietly confident of success. It is a true scientific adventure in the best sense of the word and in the spirit of Mawson.

http://expeditionsonline.com/tour-44/spirit-of-mawson-akademik-shokalskiy

[James Evans]

From YouTube comments:

"Kusmi Theros 4 days ago
Meanwhile, my field research in Antarctica is cancelled because my boat had to turn around for the Shokalskiy. This is an expensive 'rescue' to other boat and research crews. Think about them too, please."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2f0Yg7kVGU

[James Evans]

BTW, Alok Jha is writing pieces for the Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/profile/alokjha), but he's also presenting the BBC's radio coverage:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01n1dtv/Discovery_The_Return_to_Mawsons_Antarctica_Part_One/

Is this normal?

[artwest]

There's some desperate distraction work und way at The Guardian:

"Planet likely to warm by 4C by 2100, scientists warn"
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/31/planet-will-warm-4c-2100-climate

classic lines include:
"Climate sceptics like to criticise climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect," said Sherwood. "But what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by the models which predict less warming, not those that predict more."

So just the wrong ones were wrong... or something.

[TinyCO2]

To my mind research involves serious time spent on collecting the data you need. Even Mawson spent 3 years at it. It does not involve a trip that spends longer getting there than the time spent making observations. It certainly doesn't feature a sentimental trip to visit a hut (or are huts endagered due to AGW?) It's highly unlikely that Mawson's studies could act as a base line for modern comparisons because he would have been looking at different things. They even acknowledge that the ice situation has changed so even visual observations are bound to be different. However, there is no data on how the ice has varied in the interim or if the current situation is the norm and Mawson's experiences were the exception.

These people are kidding themselves that the general public are fooled by the 'more warming = more ice' argument. I'm sure we're not the only ones disgusted by the continuous stream of 'green' tourists who expend huge amounts of energy to go look at melting (or not) ice and declare themselves sure that CAGW is real. This jolly will damage their message.

[tomo]

2:06 PM Chandra

It's routine for any vessel going to Antarctica to have a doctor on board and a pretty well equipped hospital cabin - not provisioning this would be reckless.

I've been involved for 30 years with marine researchers from various countries - and am pretty familiar with the general "form" that research takes. Many projects are years in gestation prior to the actual data cruise - often projects generate much documentation even before the execution of the data gathering. I have had a look around the proffered research for this expedition and frankly it's pretty thin stuff - compared say to the detailed year planners / project web links available for permanently mobilised research vessels and even "vessels of opportunity" temporarily chartered by research institutes. .

I'd expect not unreasonably I think to have been able to see quickly what the on board projects are, their aims, methods and results delivery schedules - all I can see is "flannel". Maybe I'm just going about it in the wrong way.

It's looking like those $8K trippers are going to get quite a bit more than they bargained for - docking in Bluff on 4th January looks rather unlikely.

[patrick healy]

ICE GATE

A Ship of Fools sailed away
To celebrate Christmas day,
Mansons mission to re-enact
Global Warming was a fact;
Sponsored by B-ABC
To a balmy Southern sea.

This trip should be a doddle
Said there Computer Model,
Members of the Warming Sect
But forgot the Gore Effect;
'on each alarmists folly
Gaia frowns down on their folly'

Melting they could not adduce
Ice bergs cooked their Christmas goose,
When "Shokalaskiy" lost the place
Fell to natures cold embrace;
No escape could now be found
From the vessel fast ice-bound.

Summer in the Antarctic
Should trip their light fantastic,
Penguins dying from the heat
Would prove the ice retreat;
Alarmists now feeling sick
Disproving Mikes Nature Trick.

But who will now foot the bill
And clear up those troffers swill,
Another mess left at sea
Just as well it's not BP;
Our MSM will not name
The Greentards who are to blame.

[RGH]

It is a cruise ship, leased from the Russians and equipped for polar cruises with, as its blurb puts it, a high standard of comfort for its passengers...bar, sauna, cinema etc. The cruise company, in fact, retired the Admiral Ioffe because it did not meet the standards of comfort. Too spartan they said.

They have run dozens of cruises since 1991, but their vessels are not research vessels in any configuration. Unless being there and taking photos is research!

This cruise seems to have the character of a marketing jolly...to reinforce environmental concerns about 'climate change' etc etc and to attach to the romance of the 'Mawson' mystique.

It has gone terribly wrong.

The insurers will be watching....

[SandyS]

Roy/kellydown
I can't see how a single short duration trip can contribute very much in the way of research. In somewhere like the Antarctic it needs to be years if not decades.

[Robin Guenier]

It seems that reports that the Xue Long is also stuck are inaccurate. According to this, she's underway and making 2.9 knots - heading 210° (SSW).

[Alan Reed]

Mawson's hut:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5q-GaEjIBA

I love what they've done with the place. Wood plank under tin roof. It's got beams and cladding and everything. Fitted bedroom storage, a man cave and an original blubber-burner. True it's a bit of a doer-upper but I bet the garden's a picture in the spring. Views to die for outside.

They did go out to make some repairs but they seem to have left it original. Couldn't get change of use from science to tourism, I imagine. Bloody planners eh?

[glyn]

It's so warm down there that they're trapped by recycled ice.

Turney said the expedition team was disappointed that the Shokalskiy had been unable to break free from the ice with help from the icebreakers and get home under its own steam.

“We've been so unfortunate – there was a massive breakout of very thick, old ice from the other side of the Mertz glacier, and it was swept to sea,” he said. “There's just no way through it. Many of the icebreakers just can't get through.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/31/antarctic-rescue-helicopter-to-evacuate-passengers-from-trapped-ship

[Robin Guenier]

Further to my post and link above, I see she has now stopped - heading 335° (NNW).

[Martin A]

What type is the helicopter carried on the Xue Long? All I know is it's a Russian made machine with counter-rotating rotors. I'm interested to look up its characteristics.

[Sherlock1]

So - is it safe to assume that it was WARMER in Mawson's day..?

[Political Junkie]

Some people have wondered how the trip was funded.

Perhaps the money gushed in through a Grant Hose.

Grant Hose is the name of a Macquarie University "climate scientist" - Really! I believe he is on board.

[Black Dog]

Re the Guardian articel on this tourist cruise, there are two videos on the following link.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/30/antarctic-rescue-mission-fails?commentpage=3

The first is just funny. Australian lady having g+ts (booze cruise) and praising the excellent food. She also frets about penguins, because there is too much ice. I am sure the penguins will be fine, but that is a whole subject/rant in itself.

The second, featuring the precious Laurence Topham, is just totally pathetic. I urge you to listen to this so called "man". The amount of bleating is just pathetic. His bed is too thin, he misses his family, peanut butter and banana milk shakes etc etc. He only had 6 hours sleep last night and bumped his leg on a cupboard door or something! Pathetic, delicate being. Some would say bring back national service, but he would only pollute our fine Army. Can some person more eloquent and clever than I please, please "harpoon" this person? Also it is interesting to read the Cif comments and notice the amount of moderated posts.

[littleboylost]

If you need more confirmation of Antarctic stupidity, check this out.

http://www.thecoldestjourney.org/blog/news-from-hq/polar-crossing-halted-science-programme-to-take-precedence/

How these fools could of fast talked their way into some of the sponsorships they gained, is beyond the comprehension of this old tractor driver.

[Green Sand]

Robin Guenier

If you zoom in to the start of the Xue Long track there are some very interesting maneuvers (date and time given on way points). Similar to a ship trying to break free?

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:144.4792/centery:-66.72189/zoom:8/mmsi:412863000

Looks to be in the clear now

[Bernd Felsche]

Plenty of time for them to catch up on their reading of the classics.

Can we send them E-books of Lord of the Flies?

[Black Dog]

Martin A at 3:19 PM

I have been around Mi26s, Mi8s and the counter rotating things, KA32 or something. I know nothing more than how to marshall them on a makeshift heli-pad and get on them to load/unload, in hot climate. However compared to anything I encountered in Brit or US service they were very solid and gave the impression of "agricultural" technology. I have heard it said that they were designed to be serviced by 19 year old conscripts with a spanner and a hammer. They had much less trouble in, dusty, hot and high operations than their western counterparts. Incidently the Mi26, the really big one, had an overhead gantry crane in the cargo area. The KA32s I encountered only ever took external loads as they had a very high floor and seemd to be designed for lifting underslung loads.

[Radical Rodent]

Robin Guenier (Dec 31, 2013 at 3:05 PM): if you view her historical track, it could be that she is trapped in ice; she could be ice-bound and still be underway – i.e. is not at anchor, or made fast to the shore, or aground.

I do wonder how they are going to blame warble gloaming for this unusual amount of ice in the Antarctic summer? I have little doubt that they will make every effort to do so.

[Green Sand]

Will the "tourists" be covered by ABTA?

http://abta.com/

[Richard Tol]

@Chandra
I don't think any less of them as researchers. I think better of them as people: They managed to get a free holiday. Silly me has to work for that.

I think it is misleading, though, to refer to a "research team" when it is, in fact, not. A team it may be, but someone who is specializing (note: not specialized) in the Equatorial Undercurrent has no business in the Antarctic.

By the way, the on-board medical officer is Andrew Peacock, who is a qualified physician. Ben Fisk has yet to qualify, and appears to be working towards a PhD rather than an MD.

[DaveS]

"But what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by the models which predict less warming, not those that predict more."

Brilliant!

[Richard Tol]

@Green Sand
If they are there as researchers doing research, their employers' insurance will pick up the bill.

If they are there as tourists, they or their insurance pays.

If they are there as tourists pretending to be researchers, sparks may fly.

[Mike Jackson]

But what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by the models which predict less warming, not those that predict more.

How do they know? They're only models.

[Chandra]

Richard Tol, there are 15 scientists or more in the science team, who look quite well qualified to me, and you and the Bishop are complaining because you spotted as few PhD students who don't meet your standards. I don't know exactly what these people you object to will be doing but I guess they will be lending a hand wherever possible. If the team had instead taken along half a dozen illiterate navvies to do the donkey work, you wouldn't have batted an eyelid, so your complaint seems frivolous to me.

BTW, have you never been invited to speak at conferences and the like, never taken the chance to explore the local scenery while there, always paid your own way? You would be an odd academic if you had not enjoyed what to non-academics would indeed seem like a free holiday, so I think you should look to yourself before criticizing others.